“Making the Maliki State in Iraq and the Reemergence of Izzat Ibrahim ad-Duri” By LTC Joel Rayburn

“The Emergence of the Maliki State in Iraq: The Undoing of Power-Sharing and the Reemergence of Izzat Ibrahim ad-Duri”
By LTC Joel Rayburn*
April 11, 2012 – Published on Syria Comment with the Author’s Permission

“The Recrudescence of Imray,” one of Rudyard Kipling’s more obscure stories, is the tale of a British political officer who, having gone missing for several weeks, returns to shock his successors when his murdered corpse comes tumbling from the ceiling of his home, where his malevolent servants have hidden him. I could not help thinking of Imray’s sudden reappearance as I watched the video last weekend of Izzat Ibrahim ad-Duri, Saddam’s former deputy, who made his first public appearance since 2003 in an hour-long speech dressed as a field marshal and ranting against the Maliki government, praising Saudi King Abdullah, and exhorting all Iraqis to unite against the Iranian menace. Our friend Reidar Visser has done some good thinking through of some important details, such as where ad-Duri might be, but I thought it might be worth discussing a few of the political trends that surround ad-Duri’s unexpected reemergence.

For some time now the political center of the Iraqi Sunni community represented by the Iraqiyah coalition has been under assault from the Maliki camp (or “Malikiyoun”). Ever since the reaching of the seemingly defunct Irbil Agreement, Maliki and his allies have sought to whittle Iraqiyah down to size, first by poaching Iraqiyah’s Shia members (thereby turning Iraqiyah into a virtually Sunni-only bloc, more easily attacked on sectarian grounds), then by giving preferential treatment to other Iraqiyah members willing to desert Ayad Allawi (i.e., “White Iraqiyah”), then by pushing Iraqiyah’s senior “hardliners” (e.g., Tariq Hashemi) out of power, and finally by reaching an accommodation with those remaining Iraqiyah notables that Maliki & Co. consider more reasonable—or malleable. The result, the Malikiyoun would hope, would be a rump Iraqiyah that has no viable Prime Minister alternative, is content to be a junior partner to Maliki’s State of Law coalition, and will not resist the consolidation of the Maliki state.

In recent weeks, the Malikiyoun have augmented this anti-Iraqiyah strategy by sponsoring new Sunni competitors to Iraqiyah. The first example was Misha’an Jabouri, the radical insurgent kingpin and former Saddamist whom I mentioned in my last note to you. For the Malikiyoun, Misha’an helpfully attacked Iraqiyah for promoting federalism in Sunni provinces and declared that he would be forming a bloc committed to a unitary Iraq. Last week saw another Sunni has-been return to the scene in this fashion when former parliament speaker Mahmud Mashhadani announced that he, too, would be forming a political bloc that would compete in upcoming elections. Like Misha’an, Mashhadani’s implied target is Iraqiyah, and also like Misha’an, Mashhadani clearly senses an opportunity to use the support of the Malikiyoun to carve out some of the political space that Iraqiyah now occupies.

The characteristic that Misha’an Jabouri and Mashhadani share is that neither has any real following in Iraq now. But both will be able, if they prove reliable to Maliki and his allies, to count on having some portion of the state’s resources that are designated for the Sunni-majority provinces flow through their hands, enabling them to dole out political largesse and begin to compete for some of Iraqiyah’s base. It remains to be seen how many Iraqi Sunni notables can be bought this way by two men, Jabouri and Mashhadani, who stand out as especially erratic loose cannons in an Iraqi political class not exactly known for steadiness. Mashhadani in particular will long be remembered for the bizarre behavior and lack of decorum he brought to the office of speaker of parliament (bizarre enough behavior that a few observers thought it had to be attributed to drug use).

Nevertheless, it seems clear that Maliki and Co. intend to open up political space in the Sunni constituency that Iraqiyah had virtually locked up in the 2010 elections. And this is where Izzat ad-Duri comes in, along with his Baathist and Naqshbandi followers. By fracturing the Iraqiyah coalition that has sat astride the Sunni political center for the past two years, the Malikiyoun will not just be opening up space for prospective Maliki henchmen like Jabouri and Mashhadani (and other willing tools who will emerge as time passes); they will also open up space for radical rejectionists. The Malikiyoun have likely succeeded in ending Tariq Hashemi’s career; but what will happen to the nearly quarter of a million Iraqis who voted for him? And if the Malikiyoun ultimately succeed In driving off Ayad Allawi, as they certainly aim to do, what will happen to the more than 400,000 Iraqis who voted for him? In which direction will this sizeable Sunni-majority constituency (constantly augmented by others who grow disenchanted with Iraqiyah) migrate? Will they drift, as the Malikiyoun wish, toward the Malikiyoun’s preferred Sunni proxies, like Misha’an Jabouri, Mashhadani, and the “rump” Iraqiyah? Or will they, having seen their chosen representatives destroyed by a Maliki government whose motives they perceive as sectarian, drift toward more radical options—like Izzat ad-Duri?

Unlike Imray, Izzat ad-Duri is not quite dead. But for most of the past nine years he was nearly irrelevant, and had no hope of attracting a Sunni following as long as Iraqiyah dominated Sunni politics. He has managed, however, to hang around long enough to see Nuri Maliki put the Sunni political base back into play—and this, I believe, is what explains the timing of his recent “proof-of-life” video after having lived in hiding since 2003.

I don’t personally believe many Iraqis will gravitate toward Izzat ad-Duri; the odds of a throwback septuagenarian windbag gaining a political foothold again seem long indeed in an Iraqi that has decidedly moved on from the twentieth century. But he will not be alone among the rejectionists in gauging that the Sunni base may soon be up for grabs again, and there will be others who have much better chances of carving out some political space: like the radical cleric Harith al-Dhari and his Association of Muslim Scholars, the demented Sunni supremacist Khalaf Uluyan and his ilk, or any of the myriad insurgent groups that once roamed the Sunni provinces—including Al Qaeda.

Simply put, once the Malikiyoun have cut the Sunni political base loose from its moorings, they will surely be unable to control the direction in which it drifts, and it may wind up following currents the Malikiyoun don’t like. If Iraq’s Sunnis become radicalized again, as they were from 2003 to 2007, it will be at least partially the result of the Malikiyoun’s determination not to deal on a partnership basis with the representatives the Sunni electorate has chosen, but to thrust upon the Sunni electorate proxy leaders that the Malikiyoun have chosen for them.

*LTC Joel Rayburn is a Senior Military Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, where he focuses on political and military affairs in the Middle East.”

Comments (27)


1. Ghufran said:

Of interest is aldouri’s reference to Syria and his lack of condemnation of its regime and his reference to a NATO conspiracy against Syria.

A lot of people think aldouri is in Syria .

Not to change the subject but look how pathetic Arab media can get:

http://www.alarabiya.net/mob/ar/207030.html

The issue is not whether the regime is good or not, it is the quality of coverage and the lack of substance. This title is from the face page.

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April 11th, 2012, 6:47 pm

 

2. Amir in Tel Aviv said:

Who are the “Palestinians”?
Half of them are Egyptians, and half are Saudis.
Says a minister of Hamas. Listen:

.

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April 11th, 2012, 7:09 pm

 

3. Afram said:

I liked baghdad bob

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April 11th, 2012, 7:09 pm

 

4. Ghufran said:

وقاحة السفير الاسرائيلي في الولايات المتحده
The existence of partially democratic enclaves within a democratic system does not necessarily discredit it. Residents of Washington, D.C., are taxed without representation, while those in the U.S. territories — Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands — cannot vote in presidential elections. Anomalies exist in every democracy, and Israel’s is not voided by the situation in the West Bank.

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April 11th, 2012, 7:56 pm

 

5. Observer said:

There is clearly hysteria.

So the opposition is nothing but pure evil therefore the regime is a lesser evil. There is absolutely no comparison whatsoever between the extreme brutality of the regime and the actions of the opposition. The use of gunships, tanks, 240 mm mortars, 122 mm cannons, MRL, fragmentation bombs is not being used by the opposition. Destroying whole sections of the city of Homs and the previous massacres in Hama and in the prisons and detention centers is pure evil barbaric practice.

So asking for peaceful demonstrations and free and fair and monitored elections is an eye for an eye. It was argued before by Maleh and Kilo that it is precisely the brutality of the regime that is inviting regional and others to interfere even if by pronouncements and declarations.

The post on Maliki is quite interesting and eye opener on the utter failure of the US project. Knowing very well that it was meant to have multifaceted agenda from oil to bases to democracy promotion to draining the swamp depending on how cynical or foolish you are, the latest shows the total failure of the project. However, one cannot deny that it was US feat of arms that defeated the forces of Saddam and toppled his regime. So the newcomers seem to have forgotten the lessons of history and are about to repeat it. I doubt that Maliki has the ability to keep Iraq together for the make of the country after 2003 is precisely arranged to prevent another strong man from emerging and a central authority to prevail.

Break it up, let the Kurds have independence and the others autonomy within their regions. Let the South take all the cursed oil and let them re invent another petty dictatorship and let those without oil figure out that it their human potential that will make them rich or poor free or slaves.

There will be a collapse of Iraq into three autonomous regions. Maliki has a very tall order in trying to put the broken country together and only an iron fist will do as the idea of an Iraqi national identity has faltered and all but vanished under the rule of dictators and despots and the gutting of state institutions.

Likewise, those that talk about supporting Syria and not the regime are delusional in thinking that the sects and clans that make up this sorry piece of earth think feel and act as Syrians. For a while Syria was the Arab nation’s beating heart now we do not talk about Arabism any longer. Soon we will no longer talk about Syria any longer.

The Syria that this sect thinks of belonging to is very different from that sect’s view and all are hostage to the Mafiosi state.

Again I challenge
Let there be a referendum on who amongst the Syrians
Wants to remain together
Wants to be part of the Arab nation
Wants to separate
Wants to have their own state

The Syria that people talk about does not exist
The Head of the Executive is the Head of the Judiciary
The Head of the Executive cannot be impeached
The Head of the Executive can dissolve the Legislature
The Head of the Executive proposes Laws and governs by Decrees
The Legislative can only approve or disapprove
The composition of the Legislative is pre ordained with 50% of the seats pre assigned to a vague farmers and workers section of the population
The Head of the Executive holds the Treasury
The Head of the Executive is the Head of the Armed Forces
The Head of the Executive is also the Head of the ruling Party.

Now let us talk about corruption and ineptitude
You have to pay your bills in person
You have to go through six employees to pay the electricity bill
You have to bribe to get a phone line
you have to bribe to get a passport
You have to return to Syria to renew your passport you cannot do it at the embassy
You have to be a Party member to be the head of anything
You have to agree to the price of cars set by the regime to buy one
You have to pay your taxes on your confiscated property
You have no recourse if a mayor confiscates your land
You have to ask a security permit to have Wi Fi at home
You have to buy your own formula for your sick infant at the government hospital
You have to cook for your sick relatives at the hospital
You have to supply your own bedding and cooking utensils when you go to jail
You have to take a taxi to go to jail the police will notify you but will not take you there.
Every single one of these assertions is 100% true as it happened to me and to my neighbor when I used to live in Syria some time ago.

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April 11th, 2012, 8:09 pm

 

6. Halabi said:

Just so we are clear regarding Ali Shaaban, the default position was to lie about the shooting and alter the testimony of his colleague who was with him when Assad’s thugs opened fire. It turned out that Ali was Shiite and was apparently pro-Assad, which embarrassed Hizbollah, so state media had to backtrack, with Al-Ikhbariya calling him a shaheed.

His killers should be captured and tried. As should all murderers and those who ordered killings. That should be the demand of the law and order crowd, but unfortunately in Syria that group likes killers to roam free, like Abu Musab Al-Suri, while students are arrested at the University of Aleppo and good men like George Sabra spend years in prison.

The revolution can’t be crushed for many reasons which have been adequately discussed, most important of which is because Syrians who oppose Assad have nothing to lose. They know it’s time to let go of the corrupt, murderous police state wrapped in a personality cult of a silly man.

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April 11th, 2012, 8:13 pm

 

7. Ghufran said:

Turkey is lobbying the US to accept a buffer zone, for that to happen, the US wants to see more refugees and another shooting incident through the borders with Syria.

Translation: the focus by Turkey will be on sending more refugees and to stage an attack from Syria targeting Syrian or Turkish citizens across the borders.

What can Turkey achieve from a buffer zone beside monetary and political gains , and is a buffer zone worth the risk?

I am starting to think that the attack at the border area was not a simple action and reaction.

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April 11th, 2012, 8:22 pm

 

8. mjabali said:

Observer said:

“Let there be a referendum on who amongst the Syrians
Wants to remain together
Wants to be part of the Arab nation
Wants to separate
Wants to have their own state”

Very good points here.

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April 11th, 2012, 8:24 pm

 

9. Tara said:

Ali Shaaban, shiaa or not, I still believe Hassan and HA are showing fake indignation and putting out a show for the gullible audience. Although those thugs want to exploit Sunni-shiaa issue, they care about neither. To me he is a martyr if he was against injustice.

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April 11th, 2012, 8:50 pm

 

10. Tara said:

Joshua

It might be interesting to replace the current poll with a new one. Do Syrians want to remain together?

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April 11th, 2012, 9:15 pm

 

11. omen said:

interesting snapshot into some of turkey’s internal dissension:

Alawites allege Ankara is biased

Ankara denies any discrimination against Alawites and has held workshops to address their concerns.

“We don’t have any prejudice,” Mr Erdogan has said. “As defined in the constitution our democratic, secular and state of law republic should stand at same distance to all faith groups.”

Internationally, Turkey has also issued repeated calls against sectarian divisions, whether in Syria, Iraq or elsewhere.

But Mr Erdogan has also blamed Alawite judges for sending him to prison in the 1990s.

erdogan was thrown in jail for reciting this poem:

In his early career as mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan was imprisoned for publicly reciting these lines by an early-20th-century Pan-Turkish poet: “The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets, and the faithful our soldiers.”

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April 11th, 2012, 9:32 pm

 

12. Tara said:

Towards a long and dirty war?
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/towards-a-long-and-dirty-war-.aspx?pageID=449&nID=18229&NewsCatID=419

Things are getting complicated in Syria. As for the Annan Plan, it always looked like a weak text full of optimistic wishes, unprepared for solving the problems or giving a chance to those who wanted to step up to the plate in the next phase. As a matter of fact, Erdoğan did not take it seriously from the start. Parties tried to find new allies or to strengthen existing ones, even if only for the short term. But the truth is that the arrow has come off the bow and internal peace is a remote chance in Syria. 

As a matter of course, fights will be “long standing” and mostly civilians – women and children – will suffer. Unfortunately, society will disintegrate rapidly by experiencing great traumas.
 
Not only the balances in Syria that were established by force, but also the regional balances, have changed. Pent up ethnic, sectarian, tribal and religious identities have emerged as political centers of power and main actors of policy. Each and every one of these groups have started remembering again blanketed or suppressed hostilities, whose roots lie in the depths of history, biases and contradictions, which have powerful psychological dimensions. People have started making them the most important reference in their fights and alliances. Moreover, this situation has rippled beyond the Syrian borders.

Syria is irreversibly heading toward a civil war based on identities. When looking to previous examples in the world, there is no peaceful solution on the horizon. “Existing victims” of war keep fleeing to neighboring countries. Turkey is pushing in the field of diplomacy at the moment, if it receives the required international legitimacy, it may send “soldiers” in the future, in the name of protecting the “Sunni victims.” This means that soldiers will go into Syria not only with their uniforms, but also biased with the existing fault lines in Turkey, which are becoming ever more visible and deepening. The “mission to protect the civilians” might be breeding a new and complicated problem for those who govern Turkey.

(…)

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April 11th, 2012, 9:40 pm

 

13. bronco said:

#7. Ghufran

The international community and the opposition, fooled by Erdogan’s menacing rhetoric and active participation in helping the opposition, are expecting Turkey to make a decisive unilateral move.

Yet, Turkey will never dare a unilateral invasion of Syria before taking all precautions. They want a UN or USA greenlight and they must prepare their public opinion which is until now very reluctant to an escalation with Syria.
Having made the optimistic prediction of giving Bashar a few months, Erdogan is now faced with the increasing financial and security burden of the refugees pouring in Turkey. He is also dreading the eventuality of Bashar al Assad staying in power after he compared him to Hitler and Qaddafi.

The problem is that the “Syrians under temporary protection” are not recognized legally as ‘refugees’ ( because of a Turkish law that recognizes only Europeans migrants as “refugees” ) therefore all the costs of the camps, food and services are paid by Turkey and not the UNHCR. If Bashar al Assad stays in power these people will probably stay in Turkey indefinitely. A unpleasant prospect.

The Annan plan, if successful, is therefore a catastrophe for Erdogan. It will solve none of his problems, in the contrary it will make them worse and he will look like a fool.

Either Erdogan swallows his pride and changes his tone toward Syria or he needs to escalate the tensions at the border to create a pretext to call the UN for an intervention. For example if any Turkish soldier is killed, the incident may create a shock in the Turkish public opinion, similar to the Mavi Marmara flotilla killing of militants and this may allow Erdogan to justify a military intervention.

Therefore I won’t be surprised that he would try to create more confrontations and/or will accuse Syria of complicity with the PKK in the recent killing of the Turkish soldiers.

It is a race between Annan and Erdogan.

I bet on Annan.

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April 11th, 2012, 9:43 pm

 

14. omen said:

professor landis argues because of the various sects, syrians lack a national identity. i was surprised not to see indignant push back against this notion.

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April 11th, 2012, 9:43 pm

 

15. Tara said:

Not sure if this occurs before or after the regime swore compliance at 6:00AM tomorrow

Turkey calls for ‘urgent’ UN Security Council action on Syria
ANKARA – Hürriyet Daily News

Turkey has urged the U.N. Security Council to swiftly take measures to protect the Syrian people, stressing that Damascus has failed to comply with the conditions of the peace plan drawn up by special envoy Kofi Annan. 

“The U.N. Security Council’s Presidential Statement stipulates the condition that the Syrian regime must fulfill all its commitments as pledged to Mr. Annan, 48 hours prior to April 12, the date on which violence in all its forms should be brought to an end in its entirety. Since this has not occurred, we urgently expect the Security Council to adopt a resolution that will also incorporate the necessary measures to provide for the protection of the Syrian people,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement late yesterday.

The statement said the regime not only failed to start withdrawing troops from residential areas by the April 10 deadline but also intensified attacks on civilians along the Turkish-Syrian border, where camps on Turkish soil were also hit.

“Turkey has fully supported Joint Special Envoy for the U.N. and League of Arab States Kofi Annan’s mission from its very inception; has assisted and continues to assist Mr. Annan’s efforts aimed at bringing an immediate end to the bloodshed in Syria and [is] initiating a political transition process in line with the people’s legitimate expectations. The Syrian opposition’s support for Kofi Annan was openly communicated in Istanbul to his deputy, Nasir El Kidva,” it added.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-calls-for-urgent-un-security-council-action-on-syria.aspx?pageID=238&nID=18167&NewsCatID=338

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April 11th, 2012, 9:57 pm

 

16. Ghufran said:

A settlement with Iran, a remote possibility for now, will be a nightmare for many, however, if Obama gets reelected, a strong possibility, he will undoubtedly seek a compromise with Iran, he wants to be remembered as a peace maker and the guy who fixed healthcare and supervised an economic recovery, not the president who launched another war, he is now distancing himself slowly from the MB and backing the military council in Egypt while sending his top diplomat to warn Islamist governments against going too far, the US will do a lot to prevent an MB from becoming the president of Egypt, they are testing Sulaiman’s approval now but they may accept somebody like Amr Mousa.

Expect war mongers to support Romney and be ready for some nasty anti Obama campaigns from the likes of Fox News and the ADL. Jewish voters are still undecided but definitely nervous, most are afraid that a second term for Obama means a second chance for Iran. Israel has only few months to act and I personally do not believe a military attack is coming against Iran or Syria, both the Mullahs and Obama want to keep a process of slow negotiations alive until November.

The cunning politicians advising Bashar know all of this and they may want to buy time until November but that thinking is very troublesome because Syria can not wait 7 months, something needs to be done NOW.

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April 11th, 2012, 10:12 pm

 

17. Ghufran said:

Erdogan is now calling for NATO to protect Turkey’s borders with Syria !!

Is this guy serious or is the report from the US about his health true?

He wants to invade but he is afraid, so he is asking NATO to cover his back.

Technically, Turkey can forcefully establish a buffer zone in days, if not hours, but the cost, especially long term cost, makes this move utterly foolish.

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April 11th, 2012, 10:52 pm

 

18. ann said:

Russian FM: Syrian issue can be resolved only in UN Security Council

­Russia believes the only viable way the Syrian crisis can be resolved is through the UN Security Council, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a meeting of G8 foreign ministers in Washington, DC. Lavrov also expressed Russia’s support for the six-point peace plan proposed by Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League envoy to Syria. He said Moscow was dissatisfied with the fact that a number of countries have sent messages to the Syrian opposition about the need to continue the armed struggle against Bashar al-Assad and his government. Lavrov stated that the main task now is to bring the conflicting sides to the negotiating table.

[...]

http://rt.com/news/line/2012-04-12/#id29488

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April 11th, 2012, 10:54 pm

 

19. omen said:

8:09 – observer: Maliki has a very tall order in trying to put the broken country together and only an iron fist will do as the idea of an Iraqi national identity has faltered and all but vanished

but if you asked an iraqi shia why doesn’t he just move to iran? he’ll tell you that he’s proud of being arab and he’s proud of being iraqi!

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April 11th, 2012, 10:55 pm

 

20. ann said:

Bashar Jaafari is on PBS Charlie Rose. Watch it now.

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April 11th, 2012, 11:02 pm

 

21. omen said:

do the regime supporters defend even the culture of corruption that observer detailed?

is everything fine and beautiful in syria? or is the corruption blamed on the opposition too? no, wait, it’s the fault of the west!

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April 11th, 2012, 11:19 pm

 

22. omen said:

bronco:

therefore all the costs of the camps, food and services are paid by Turkey and not the UNHCR.

now why did this statement bug me? oh yeah, the red crescent symbol seen all over the syrian refugee camps in turkey:

President of the Saudi Red Crescent Authority Prince Faisal bin Abdullah held talks in Riyadh yesterday with a UNHCR official on the prospects of distributing humanitarian supplies among Syrian refugees in neighboring countries in coordination with the UN agency.

“Saudi Arabia is ready to provide humanitarian assistance and relief supplies to refugees and needy people in various parts of the world,” Prince Faisal said after talks with Imran Reda, UNHCR representative for the GCC.
[...]
“We discussed prospects of cooperation and coordination between the Saudi Red Crescent and the UNHCR to make available humanitarian and relief assistance among the Syrian refugees in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan,” Prince Faisal said.

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April 11th, 2012, 11:44 pm

 

23. jad said:

$273,000 is the salary of the executive office members in the SNC and Amar Qurabi is forcing the opposition to hire his wife while negotiating her salary in Euro currency:

Ashraf Almoukdad
قارن ما يلي وابكي على حالنا السوريين:
يتقاضى رئيس وزراء بريطانيا معاشا سنويا قدره 215 ألف دولار
ورئيس وزراء اسرائيل 120 الف دولار
والصين أقل من 11 الف دولار
يتقاضى عضو المكتب التنفيذي في المجلس الوطني السوري مئتين وثلاثة وسبعون الف دولار سنويا!!!!!!!!!هذا طبعا العضو العادي ولايعرف أحد ماذا يستلم غليون
انظروا بالله عليكم بهذا الرابط وقارنوا بين مجلسنا المعطوب ورؤساء العالم …ليس مقارنة مع وزراء …أو أعضاء برلمان…..ياحيف وياعيب وتفووووووووووووووووووو

Ashraf Almoukdad
من المقرف والمخزي والمعيب أن يضع أحد أعضاء اللجنة المفاوضة مع المجلس “لإصلاحه” شرط أن تشتغل زوجته بالمكتب الإعلامي لا وبل يطلب رقما معينا من اليوروهات……تفووووووووووووووه…قال العصفور وذيله قال!!!!!
https://www.facebook.com/ashraf.almoukdad

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April 12th, 2012, 12:15 am

 

24. jad said:

Bronco,

Since yesterday BBC English edition is acting weird, for the first time they start to show the terrorist side of the revo. and they are repeating the clips of terrorists for the whole day yesterday, with interviews saying that whoever pay money to the armed gangs in Syria they have Syrian blood on their hands.

In the Hardtalk program they shredded the opposition SNC member in pieces, they even pushed him to declare that the council is run by the MBs.

They’ve been promoting the move of the Syrian government of the ceasefire as ‘serious’ and not a bluff. and they are admitting the armed militia nasty works, they never did that before.

They are either trying to distant themselves from the american or the turks military plan hence they are preparing the public to go nuts against war or they are noticing what terrorist can do to them if they give them money, I can’t figure it out.

Any idea why would they flip suddenly like that?

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April 12th, 2012, 12:25 am

 

25. jad said:

The terrorists are now targeting and killing online activists.

One of the admin of a pro-government FB page was killed yesterday one month after being followed and threatened by the usual gangs:

الادارة العامة للمخابرات السورية

هذه هي الصورة من حوالي شهر تقريبا وكان اخر تهديد الى صديقي واخي وزميلي “سلوم “قبل ان تطاله يد الغدر اليوم رحمك الله يا صديقي واسكنك فسيح جنانه …

ياريتني كنت مكانك ياريت الرصاصة اجت بقلبي ولا اجت فيك ياريت كنت موجود معك كنا حمينا بعض كنا دافعنا عن بعض اخ اخ من “”السلمية “”شو خسرتني اصدقاء واخوة وكله تحت عنوان “”سلمية “”سلمية ” اقسم برب العزة ورب من خلق الارض وبسط السماء لن ارتاح حتى اخذ بتارك حتى ولو بعد 10 سنوات او مدى حياتي دمك “”امانة برقبتي الى يوم القيامة وهذا وعد شرف مني وانت اكثر الناس تعرف ما هو وعد الشرف وانت اكثر الناس تعرف ما هو الشرف رحمك الله واسكنك فسيح جنانه .

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=429555473726364&set=a.302088823139697.92614.301643433184236&type=1&theater

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April 12th, 2012, 12:39 am

 

26. jad said:

Bronco,

Are you writing someone’s articles? :)

تركيا في المأزق السوري

داود أوغلو: لن نتدخل وحدنا

محمد نور الدين

رفعت تركيا وتيرة استعداداتها العسكرية على الحدود مع سوريا مع أمر اليوم العسكري الذي يدعو الجنود الأتراك الى وضع اليد على الزناد من دون إطلاق النار ما لم يتعرضوا مباشرة الى النيران.

وقد نقلت صحيفة «راديكال» إبلاغ العسكريين أمر التأهب الأقصى بعد جرح العديد من اللاجئين السوريين واثنين من الأتراك داخل مخيم كيليس من البيوت الجاهزة. وقالت الصحيفة إن أمراً صدر بمنع دخول أي مسلح سوري هارب من الأراضي السورية الى داخل تركيا بسلاحه على أن يؤخذ منه فور دخوله. كما أن وصول النيران الى المخيم دفع بأعداد كبيرة من لاجئيه الى الفرار منه رغم تطمينات السلطات التركية.
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في هذا الوقت ذكرت صحيفة «ميللييت» أن وزير الخارجية احمد داود اوغلو أبلغ نظيره الروسي تطمينات بأن تركيا لن تتخذ خطوات من جانب واحد تجاه سوريا. وهذا يتعارض مع كلام رئيس الحكومة التركية رجب طيب اردوغان عن ان تركيا ستقوم بما يلزم رداً على انتهاكات سوريا للحدود مع سوريا واطلاق النار في اتجاه مخيم كيليس. وقال «ان الشعب السوري ينظر الينا كمحرر. وهو لا يهرب بإرادته ولو أغلقنا الحدود أمام الهاربين لتحولوا الى خبز محمّص (توست)».

بموازاة ذلك تتسع اجتهادات الأتراك حول امكانية التحرك العسكري المنفرد من دون قرار دولي.

وفي هذا الاطار تحدثت صحيفة «ميللييت» عن احتمالين. الأول امكانية استفادة تركيا مما سمته وجود مادة سرية في اتفاقية أضنة مع سوريا تسمح للقوات التركية بالتوغل مسافة 5 كيلومترات داخل الأراضي السورية لتعقب أي نشاط لمسلحي حزب العمال الكردستاني. والثاني تفعيل المادة الخامسة من نظام حلف شمال الأطلسي التي تعتبر الاعتداء على أي عضو في الحلف اعتداء على كل الأعضاء وتتوجب مساندته. لكن المتحدثة باسم وزارة الخارجية الأميركية فكتوريا نولاند قالت ردا على سؤال «ان مثل هذا الموضوع ليس مطروحاً بعد، لكن لن يكون مفاجئاً ان يطرح اذا ما تطلب الأمر ذلك».

وتحاملت الصحف المؤيدة للحكومة على مهمة كوفي انان وقالت إنه وحده (أي انان) المتفائل بتنفيذ الخطة.

لكن تحذيرات الكتّاب المنتقدين لسياسات الحكومة تتواصل، وفي هذا السياق كتب سميح ايديز في صحيفة «ميللييت» ان وزير الخارجية التركي احمد داود اوغلو قد عاد الى تركيا من الصين بسبب الوضع على الحدود السورية، وأيضا ليواجه انتقادات المعارضة بأن الدم يسيل على الحدود فيما هو يتنزه في الصين. لكن السبب الأساس لقطع زيارته الى الصين هو العمل لدى اعضاء مجلس الأمن على بدء عملية جديدة من الضغوط الدبلوماسية على سوريا. لكن الكاتب يقول إن فرص نجاح ذلك ضعيفة جداً بسبب الموقف الروسي.

ويقول الكاتب إن إحساس روسيا بالخديعة في ليبيا واتهام واشنطن بالتدخل في الانتخابات الرئاسية الروسية يجعل من روسيا ثابتة ومعها الصين في منع صدور أي قرار ضد سوريا. كما ان روسيا منزعجة من التحالف الأميركي السعودي القطري الذي يغذي تركيا ويحرّضها. وكما تستخدم الولايات المتحدة والغرب «المحور السني» المؤلف من تركيا وقطر والسعودية، فإن روسيا تقف وراء المحور الشيعي الذي تتزعمه ايران.

ويقول الكاتب إن استمرار تأييد روسيا وسوريا لخطة كوفي أنان وعدم اعلان اميركا والغرب موتها يجعل سعي تركيا لإعلان موت الخطة والدفع نحو تدخل دولي في سوريا غير ممكن.

ومع ذلك يقول الكاتب ان تركيا تصر على ان تتحرك مع قطر والسعودية للتدخل، وهو لا يعني سوى الدخول الى عش الدبابير. وحذّر ايديز الكتّاب القريبين من حزب العدالة والتنمية الذين يدعون الحكومة الى الحرب على سوريا، وقال إن على الحكومة «ان تكون دقيقة جداً في خطواتها، خصوصا ان الشرق الأوسط يشكل لتركيا حقل ألغام سياسياً خطيراً وأنه من غير الممكن دخوله حتى لو كان من أجل انقاذ أحد علق في وسطه».

واعتبر الكاتب محمد تزكان في الصحيفة نفسها ان كلام اردوغان «ان الشعب السوري يتطلع الينا كمنقذ وان الأسد قد وصل الى نقطة لم نرد له أن يصل اليها»، انما يشجع الأصوات التي تريد الحرب على سوريا وينفث في نارها.

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April 12th, 2012, 12:48 am

 

27. jad said:

Excellent reading, and very true:

هل يتعلم السوريون من حروب اللبنانيين؟
نصري الصايغ

سيزيف السوري… من لبنان

إذا فشل كوفي أنان، وقد يفشل، فأي سوريا بعد ذلك؟ هل ستتشبه بغيرها، أم ستكون «لا شبيه لها»؟

فاتها ان تتشبه بتونس. تلك ثورة اقتدت بها مصر. سوريا من مدار آخر، الخطر فيها وعليها لا قياس له.. هل ستكون ليبيا أخرى؟ انها كذلك مع وقف التنفيذ، «الناتو» المرغوب به من أطراف في المعارضة، ممنوع حتى الآن. هل ستكون شبيها باليمن؟ ورقة الجامعة العربية، أو نسخة «دول الخليج» المعدلة، اختنقت بحبر ونفط من أملاها، لا حياة لها، ولو عمدت بالدعم الدولي الهش.

إذاً، كيف ستكون سوريا غداً؟ سيكون فيها ما يشبه الجزائر، عندما غرقت في دمها، أو ما يشبه العراق بعد «تحريره» قتلاً وتدميراً، أو ما يشبه الصومال، بعدما تبعثر، أو ما يشبه لبنان، عندما انفق خمسة عشر عاماً من القتال الأهلي، فحصد الإعاقة الدائمة والحرية المريضة، ولا تسأل عن الدول الأخرى، حيث دماؤها لغتها.

فات سوريا ان تنتقل من الاستبداد والتسلط، إلى الديموقراطية والحرية. وسيرورتها لا تشي باقتراب الحل. انها في دوامة الاخطار، والقادم منها، اشد فتكا مما عرفته حتى قدوم كوفي أنان. وقد يكون النموذج اللبناني، في وجوهه الكارثية، مرآة قادمة، ترى فيه القوى السورية، انها انزلقت إلى.. سيزيف اللبناني.

احدى علامات الهاوية، ان لا بارقة أمل بعد. سوريا تنفق من دم ابنائها، ولا حصاد غير المزيد من الجثث.. النظام القوي بعصبه الأمني، واحتضانه الأهلي والمذهبي، وشبكة أمان دولية وإقليمية (روسيا، الصين، إيران) لا يزال في النفق ولمّا يخرج بعد.. الثورة بدلت لباسها، والثياب المرقطة لم تحم جسد الحراك السلمي.. الطرفان، منذ عام، يراوحان بين مستحيلين: استحالة القضاء على الثورة، واستحالة إسقاط السلطة والنظام. ويزاد أيضاً، النظام فشل في تأمين خلاصه، وما نجح في ترميم ما تبقى منه، بعملية «إصلاح» فات زمنها، ولا صلاح فيها من دون مشاركة المعارضة. والمعارضة فشلت في توحدها، وفي منع التسلح والعسكرة، وفي النأي عن المطامع الدولية، وقد تفشل في منع الانزلاق إلى حروب أهلية مدمرة.

أمام المستحيلين، حسم النظام وحسم المعارضة، تراوح سوريا في العجز. الجامعة العربية تستبسل حبراً ومالاً وطوافاً.. وانتقاماً. مجلس الأمن يقترف الانحياز ويواجه بانحياز مضاد. أوروبا تداوي عجزها برفع الصوت والنأي عن الفعل، تركيا على قاب قوسين من أوروبا، تحكي ولا تفعل، فيما الطرف السوري مطمئن إلى صحة الموقف الإيراني ورسوخه، وحماية الروسي لتخومه الاستراتيجية. وسوريا واسطة العقد في ذلك أمام هذا العام المترع بالآلام والافشال والمآزق، أي مسار تسلكه سوريا؟ هل «سندروم لبنان» سيكون نموذجاً؟
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الدولة أم الديموقراطية أولا؟

سئل رئيس تحرير مجلة «الإكسبرس» الفرنسية كريستوف بادبيه، ابان حلقة نقاشية عن اولوياته السياسية، هل هي الجمهورية أم الديموقراطية؟ هل هي الدولة أم النظام؟ وكان جوابه حاسماً: الجمهورية أولا، الدولة أولا.

جواب في بلد يفتخر بديموقراطيته. انما يقدم الجمهورية عليها.

إذا سئل النظام في سوريا وان سئلت المعارضة: ايهما أولاً، النظام أم الدولة؟ السلطة أم وحدة المجتمع؟ الإصلاح أم الوحدة الوطنية؟ الدولة أم الديموقراطية؟ سيكون الجواب نقيض الجواب الفرنسي والممارسة تدل على ذلك، وهنا الخطر. وعلى الجواب السوري يمكن بناء الاستنتاج الثاني: أولوية السلطة في سوريا وأولوية المعارضة فيها تقودان إلى حروب أهلية، ينفذ من خلالها «الخارج»، للقبض على سوريا، ولكل حصته، كما في لبنان راهنا.. المحاصصة الداخلية، صورة مصغرة عن المحاصصة الإقليمية. أليست عندنا حصة إيرانية وأخرى سورية وأخرى سعودية وأميركية… الخ؟

إن من يغار على الدولة يبادر إلى وضع الأولوية لوحدة المجتمع والعمل على درء الحروب الأهلية.. سوريا كلبنان، بلد متعدد الطوائف. كان نسيجه قوميا رائعا، منذ ما قبل سايكس ـ بيكو. فرض السوريون على الملك فيصل قوميتهم العربية. لم ينل «الاخوان المسلمون» تمثيلاً يتعدى أصابع اليد الواحدة، في الزمن البرلماني السوري. انما، مع تبوّء الدكتاتوريات السلطة، وحماية نفسها بالقبضة الأمنية والرابطة المذهبية و«تحالف الأقليات»، جعلت من المجتمع، قوى طائفية ومذهبية متربصة، تنتظر لحظة الانتقاض، وقد سنحت لها بعد اندلاع الثورة.

أمام السوريين اليوم ايجاد الجواب عن السؤال التالي: ماذا نعمل لدرء الحرب الأهلية، التي تطيح بالنظام والدولة والمؤسسات وبالمعارضة كذلك (تذكروا لبنان، لم يبق من شعاراته إلا ترميم الركام).

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April 12th, 2012, 1:13 am

 

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