“Syria’s Assad regime is doomed, but the battle will be long and bloody,” by Joshua Landis

Syria’s Assad regime is doomed, but the battle will be long and bloody
Joshua Landis
For Bitterlemons
January 26, 2012 Edition 4

The Syrian regime headed by Bashar Assad is doomed in the long run, but is likely to last longer than most believe. In December, the leader of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood stated that President Assad would fall “in the next few months”, the US State Department proclaimed Assad to be a “dead man walking”, and Israel’s defense minister insisted that Assad would fall in a matter of weeks. This has turned out to be wishful thinking.

The Assads stand atop the last minoritarian regime in the Levant and thus seem destined to fall in this age of popular revolt. When they do, the post-colonial era will draw to a final close. Following World War II, minorities took control in every Levant state thanks to colonial divide-and-rule tactics and the fragmented national community that bedeviled the states of the region. Unique in this was Palestine, for the Jewish minority was able to transform itself into the majority at the expense of Palestine’s Muslims and Christians. Neither the Christians of Lebanon nor the Sunnis of Iraq were so lucky or ambitious. Nevertheless, both clung to power at the price of dragging their countries into lengthy civil wars. The Alawis of Syria seem determined to repeat this violent plunge to the bottom. It is hard to determine whether this is due to the rapaciousness of a corrupt elite, to the bleak prospects that the Alawi community faces in a post-Assad Syria, or to the weak faith that many in the region place in democracy and power-sharing formulas. Whatever the reason, Syria’s transition away from minority rule is likely to be lengthy and violent. Levantine history suggests this as a rule.

There are three main reasons why the Assad regime is likely to last well into 2013–if not longer–despite Syria’s rapidly deteriorating economic and security conditions.

The first is the strength of the regime compared to the opposition. The military has not turned against Syria’s president. It is a professional army, which so far has a monopoly on heavy weapons in Syria. Important government officials have not defected in significant numbers. This loyalty is due in no small part to the fact that the Assad family has prepared for this moment of popular, Sunni revolt for 40 years. It has packed sensitive posts with loyal Alawis and Baathists. Some analysts estimate that 80 percent of Syria’s officer corps is Alawi. The main strike-forces, such as the Republican Guard led by Bashar’s brother, is Alawi to the man. An ambassador in Syria’s Foreign Ministry recently claimed that 60 percent of Syria’s Foreign Service officers are Alawi and only 10 percent Sunni. The sectarian nature of the elite elements of the security forces ensures a high degree of loyalty and willingness to fight. The broader Alawi community is also likely to remain loyal to the regime, even as the economy deteriorates. Almost all Alawi families have a least one member in the security forces as well as additional members working in civilian ministries, such as education or agriculture. Most fear collective punishment for the sins of the Baathist era, whether this means trials, the loss of jobs, or even worse (one irresponsible Sunni sheikh threatened that the Alawis will be ground into mince meat when defeated).

The second reason the Assad regime is likely to survive into 2013 is the disorganization and factionalism of the opposition. Through much of 2011, the Syrian opposition hoped that by remaining leaderless, as had revolutionaries in Egypt and Tunisia, the regime could be brought down largely by peaceful means: either because Bashar Assad would surrender power, a coup would dislodge him, sanctions would cause elite defections and collapse, or growing demonstrations would achieve a Tahrir square moment. By the end of 2012, these scenarios seemed ever more unlikely, and the opposition has been forced to think seriously about developing a trusted leadership, unifying its ranks, and coming up with a realistic military option to defeat the Syrian army. These objectives still seem far off

The Syrian National Council, Syria’s leading opposition coalition, remains highly factionalized and has found it difficult to unite with other opposition parties. The mere fact that the SNC membership has felt compelled to limit its leaders to a three-month term testifies to the high level of internal dissent. Burhan Ghalioun, the capable and savvy secular leader, is distrusted by many Islamists in the SNC as well as younger activists who are leading the struggle on Syria’s streets. Only recently was he denounced by members of his own party for being a traitor and dictatorial when he prematurely announce a unification plan with the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change, a coalition of leftist parties led by Haytham Manaa.

Just as important as the opposition’s political weaknesses, however, are its military limitations. The Free Syrian Army being assembled in Turkey under the leadership of Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad is no match for the Syrian army. Although armed opponents of the regime are an important development, their size, structural limitations, lack of heavy weapons, and limited command and control mean they do not yet present a real danger or alternative to the Syrian military. In fact, many analysts insist that most fighting is being done by small units organized on the local level that do not take orders from Col. Asaad or other leaders, even if they call themselves members of the Free Syrian Army. What is more, many Syrians still do not accept the notion that the regime should be brought down by military means.

The third reason that the Assad regime is unlikely to be deposed soon is that foreign powers are not eager to intervene militarily in Syria. US President Barack Obama and European authorities would find it difficult not to support military strikes on the Syrian army if they were led by Turkey or the Arab League, but neither has shown an inclination to undertake such a risky adventure.

So long as the Syrian military leadership remains united, the opposition remains fragmented, and foreign powers remain on the sidelines, the Assad regime is likely to survive, but all three of these elements are changing, even if gradually, in the favor of the opposition. The predominant role of minorities in the governments of the region, which was universal at the end of the colonial period, is being brought to a violent conclusion.

-Published 25/1/2012 © bitterlemons-international.org
Joshua Landis is associate professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

See the other three essays on Bitterlemons’ site

“The regime’s prospects are better than two months ago but remain dim,” Karim Emile Bitar

The Syrian revolution is now entering a new, more ominous phase. The regime has been considerably weakened and isolated. The Arab League’s mission has ended in a fiasco. The economy is in tatters. The opposition’s protests continue unabated. But the main pillars of President Bashar Assad’s support are still holding on. ….

A militarization of the revolution would empower the most radical elements, as it did in Libya, and render future democratization much more difficult. A foreign intervention would open Pandora’s box.

Those who would like Assad to fall are now confronted with the old Machiavelli vs. Kant philosophical dilemma: does the end justify the means or do the means determine the end? A comprehensive study, published by Columbia University Press and analyzing dozens of past cases, suggests that the latter is true. It indicates that if a dictator is overthrown through peaceful struggle, there is a 51 percent chance of a successful democratic transition after five years. In case of an armed struggle, the chances are only three percent.

The Syrian opposition is understandably impatient to bring Assad down and breathe freely. It should nonetheless meditate on these figures.

“Yes and no,” by Elias Samo

Can the Syrian regime survive? That is a question only a crystal ball can definitively answer. My analysis of the two primary components of the Syrian regime–a pyramidal political leadership under President Bashar Assad and a one-party political structure under the Baath party–leads me to believe the answer is “yes and no”. Yes, Assad will survive, and no, the political structure of one-party Baath rule will not….

“A sinking ship,” by Michel Nehme

Domestically, the mutiny in the Syrian army is slowly accelerating. It is beginning to pose a tangible threat to ! the military establishment, despite tight control by Baathist officers. The economy is gradually deteriorating–an indication of a long process that ultimately will topple the regime. The issue now is not whether the regime has been able to withstand or escape the storm, but rather the sense that the regime is slowly and daily getting weaker. Yet when it will finally collapse is not something that can be predicted, due to a variety of regional and international considerations….

Comments (724)


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351. SANDRO LOEWE said:

Mr. Assad you have reached what you were searching for. Total chaos, war and sectarian confrontations. You are looking for Lebanon War II in Syria but even if you got it you would not know how to deal with it without Khaddam, Kanaan, etc.

Yesterday 100 killed in Syria.

Now everything is ready for the implosion, is taht what Assad wanted?

Get ready here we come.

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January 29th, 2012, 6:29 am

 

352. SYRIAN HAMSTER said:

Be fair
Sandro
Please be fair, the fool could not do this on his own. He has an army of enablers, some of which are here on SC, cutting and pasting the worst mental defecation from fascist reactionaries, Iranian press, Russian prostituting-journalism, and from failed Arab-nationalist propagandist and Lebanese whores of words who reside in five star hotels in Damascus at the expense of every Syrian.

So please give credit where credit is due. Posters on this site who have happily advocated “surgical strikes”, are as responsible for the massacre of children as the mafia boss and his gang of hyenas. Every time these sectarian hooligans on SC tried to show how popular this buffoon of a president is, or how divided the opposition, or how Islamic are their slogans, and how un-educated are the protesters (as if the education of the SC sectarian hooligans on SC has benefited in making them closer to human values), they were simply manufacturing new bullets and tank shells that are now killing the innocents.

Yes the bad memories will be converted into good one and the memory of their beloved buffoon standing in the trial cage begging for mercy along with his cousins and siblings and chiefs of insecurity and oppression instruments will live with Syrians for a long time, that if the Syrian people were too generous to grant then trial that they never afforded the innocents they murdered.

As for the trials of SC’s own sectarian hooligans, I don’t give a damn about them, for they will have live with the stench of their rotten values, and in that, there may be heavenly justice. There will always be fools like them who will feed them fiery articles spelling dooms during the rebuilding of Syria, and we will be there to expose them, but more importantly, the Syrian people will reject them like the toxic waste they are.

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January 29th, 2012, 8:01 am

 

353. majedkhaldoun said:

Juergen
There is nothing in Quraan mentioned about The Number 72, the number is not there.
There ia no mention in Quraan or Hadith about sex or having children in Quraan or Hadith.
The peophet himself never interpreted Quraan, so no one has the right to interpret Quraan and then taken as definite, I believe we know how to read and write Arabic, we interpret Quraan,we can discuss our interpretation with others based on what is written and based on what we understand Quraan,the arabic language,but old interpretation of Quraan may not be correct,since it was done by non arabic people, where arabic language is their second language not their mother language.Quraan is manifest,clear as you read it if you understand arabic well, In Quraan it is mentioned that some will interpreted wrong, even it is a manifest book.
Old interpretation of Quraan does not distinguish between AN(mean on),and Fi(mean IN),they believe they are interchangeable, they are not ,and when you replace on with in or the other way around ,you change the meaning tremendously.
for example, there is a verse in Quraan says
Those who (an salatihem sahoon)and those who(fi salatihem sahoon) the meaning is completely different.this difference was not recognized by Bukhari and Turmizi,whose arabic language is second language.

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January 29th, 2012, 8:16 am

 

354. Amir in Tel Aviv said:

Just in: new Assad reform. This time in Bab Amr

.

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January 29th, 2012, 8:40 am

 

355. Tara said:

Norman,

You said

“taking revenge on a group for the deeds of the few called genocide, what did the Christians in Iraq have to do withe that war and was their sin, nothing accept being Christians, that is the kind the people you support want for Syria, the Syrian army will not let that pass, even if they have to destroy the Mideast so fasten your seat belts and make your GCC criminals do the same because the fire will burn them too,Syria will not sink alone.”

Norman

Let me take you through a mental exercise.  Let us change the setting to the USA on  9/112001 after the attacks on the World Trade Centre.  Understandingly, there were a backlash on the Arab and Muslim community in the US and some hate crimes.

Step out of yourself for a second and read this imaginary report from the Muslim and Arab community to the people of the US  in regard with me:

[Taking revenge on a group for the deeds of the few called genocide, what did the vast majority of Muslims have to do with the WTC and was it their sin?, nothing except being Muslims, ..., the Muslim army of OBL will not let that passes, even if they have to destroy the US so fasten your seat belts and make your EU criminals (and the whole world that is showing solidarity with you)  do the same because the fire will burn them too, ...]

Do you find the above statements acceptable?   Doesn’t it sound to you like a mental product of brainwashed delusional people.

DO Not not reply, I am waiting to hear your response. 

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January 29th, 2012, 9:10 am

 

356. Alan said:

353-
Like an octopus,,their tentacles are everywhere needs blood meals to survive…. F… U.. your moment must be soon !

SYRIA: REBELS USING ISRAELI ARMS

Syrian media showcase images of weapons allegedly produced by Jewish State

Syrian media outlets reported Friday that President Bashar Assad’s security forces seized huge quantities of weapons used by rebels across the country, including Israeli-made arms.

According to the unconfirmed reports, Assad’s troops seized a machinegun, Israeli-made bombs, automatic rifles, various explosive devices, protective vests, night-vision equipment and military uniforms, among other things.

Syrian television showcased the weapons Friday evening and claimed that some of the arms originated in Israel. Some of the weapons featured Hebrew inscriptions, yet it was unclear who was holding the arms and where the images were photographed.

Weapons showcased on Syrian TV The latest Syrian reports are apparently meant to discourage anti-Assad rebels and present them as traitors who enlist the help of the “Zionist enemy” in their battle against President Assad. Notably, this was not the first time that images of weapons allegedly produced by Israel emerged during the so-called “Arab Spring.” In previous cases, both government forces and rebels used such images to portray their foes as traitors.

Last year, shortly after the beginning of the Libyan uprising against Muammar Gaddafi’s rule, rebels presented weapons they claimed originated in Israel and were used by Gaddafi’s forces.

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January 29th, 2012, 9:23 am

 
 

358. Tara said:

Syrian Hamster,

“whores of words”. Brilliant! I

Ah, I have very very soft heart to brilliance,charm, and sophistication whether embodied in writing, film production, music, painting or anything else for that matter.

Please write more.

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January 29th, 2012, 9:38 am

 

359. mjabali said:

Jurgen:

Do not listen to Majedkhaldoun. He does not know what he is talking about.

If you take his words to his own sheikh he would be rebuked and probably considered out of the Sunna wa-al-jama3a.

Mohammad interpreted al-Quran to his contemporaries opposite to what Majed Khaldoun said and claimed.

Majedkhaldoun claimed that it is easy for those who read and write Arabic to interpret al-Quraan and that is funny because I know for a fact that Majedkhaldoun’s Arabic is not that good. Look at his English and you can tell that he is not a textual person.

al-Quran as we all know had been a battleground for so many people (Actually many of those spent their lives learning language and linguistics…etc) who wanted to take the HUGE task and interpret it. It is a very hard task and you need to be up to it. Besides your linguistic knowledge you need the right historical information too, and we both know that Majedkhladoun is none of that. To prove this you can look at how Majedkhaldoun brought al-Bukhari and Turmudhi to the discussion and both are known to be Hadith specialists and has nothing to do with interpretation / Tafseer. Hadith and Tafseer are two different worlds.

al-bukhari has a famous book : al-Jami’ al-Sahih al-Musnad min Hadith Rasul Allah wa-Sunanuh wa-Ayamuh, known as al-Jami’ al-Sahih.

al-Turmudhi on the other hand has a famous book called: Sunnan al-Turmudhi. Both men has nothing to do with Tafseer/interpretation of al-Quran.

It makes more sense to someone from the day and age of Mohammad to understand the riddles of the language of al-Quran more than us in this day and age. Majedkhaldoun in his dreams can understand every word in al-Quran. In reality it is a very hard and complex text to decipher and understand.

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January 29th, 2012, 9:55 am

 

360. Juergen said:

Sorry pals i dont want to get an other round of theology debates here, i think thats hard enough what is going on with the Syrians.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:05 am

 

361. Syria no Kandahar said:

Islamic rats friends of SH attacked Der Sednia today.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:07 am

 

362. Tara said:

Dear Jeurgen

Thank you from refraining to get engaged in hatred spreading debate.

I am so grateful that Syria attracts many great non- Syrians that care about her.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:11 am

 

363. jad said:

After targeting trains, gas lines, trucks, schools, orphanages and mosques it’s time for monasteries, not any one of them Sednaya, one of the oldest in the world, is the great Omayyad mosque next on the list!
Khara 3alekon w heek thawra bunch of Ignorant criminals!

رئيسة دير سيدة صيدنايا: سقوط قذيفة على الدير ولا اصابات

أكدت رئيسة دير سيدة صيدنايا في ريف دمشق الأم فيرونا في حديث صحافي “أن قذيفة مدفعية انطلقت من الجبل المقابل للدير واصابت إحدى غرف الدير من الجهة الشمالية واخترقت الجدار”، مشيرة الى ان الاضرار اقتصرت على الماديات.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:21 am

 

364. Ghufran said:

As if the Syrian situation is not complicated enough:
اربيل- (ا ف ب): طالب عدد من ممثلي الاكراد السوريين السبت بإجراء استفتاء لتقرير مصيرهم في بلادهم بعد تغيير النظام فيها، فيما رفض اخرون اقامة اقليم مستقل كالذي يتمتع به اشقائهم في العراق.
وعقدت اكثر من 210 شخصيات كردية جاءت من 25 دولة أجنبية، مؤتمرا في اربيل حضره رئيس اقليم كردستان العراق الشمالي مسعود بارزاني، لبحث مستقبلهم في سوريا.

وقال حمد درويش سكرتير الحزب التقدمي الكردي في سوريا، ردا على سؤال حول طموحهم باقامة اقليم مشابه لكردستان العراق “في سوريا لن نحصل على نفس الشيء الذي لدى اكراد العراق لان الظروف مختلفة”.
واضاف “نطالب بان تثبت حقوقنا الوطنية في الدستور وان يوافق عليها اخواننا العرب” في سوريا.

ويمثل الاكراد تسعة بالمئة من الشعب السوري. وهناك 12 حزبا كرديا محظورا، كلها علمانية واكثرها تاثيرا حزب يكيتي والحزب الديمقراطي الكردي في سوريا (بارتي) وحزب يزيدي الكردي والاتحاد الديمقراطي (القريب من حزب العمال الكردي).
ومن جانبه، قال عبد الحكيم بشار سكرتير الحزب الديمقراطي الكردي في سوريا، ان “الشعب الكردي في سوريا سوف يقرر ما يريد وحق تقرير المصير يعني اجراء استفتاء للشعب الكردي ليقرر ما يريد وفق مبدأ اللامركزية”.
واكد أن “حق تقرير المصير لدينا مشروط بالحفاظ على الوحدة السورية”.
واشار المشاركون في المؤتمر إلى ان “سياسة التمييز” التي عاشوها على مدى عقود تتطلب “حلا ديموقراطيا” لقضيتهم.
كما طالبوا بالاعتراف بلغتهم وثقافتهم اضافة إلى منحهم حقوق في سياسية وادارية ولكن في في اطار وحدة البلاد.
ومن جانبه، قال سعد الدين ملا عضو اللجنة السياسية الحزب اليكيتي الديمقراطي الكردي في سوريا، ان “شعبنا الكردي سوف يقرر ما يريد عبر الاستفتاء وسنعمل بما يقرره بالفدرالية او الحكم الذاتي او اللامركزية”.
اما جواد الملا سكرتير المؤتمر الوطني الكردي في سوريا “حتما سيكون هناك حكومة كردية في سوريا. لكن بما ان الاحزاب الكردية والشارع (الكردي) غير متفقين الان يفضل ان يترك هذا الامر الى ما بعد سقوط النظام” السوري.
وتابع “بعدها يجرى استفتاء عام للشعب الكردي في سوريا، هل يريد البقاء ضمن سوريا او يريد الاستقلال”.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:31 am

 

365. Juergen said:

I heard that near Damascus Airport have been attacks, anybody can confirm that?

SNK

what happen to the sisters of the monastery?

Syria crisis worsens

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/nightly-news/46176809#46176809

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January 29th, 2012, 10:39 am

 

366. Syria no kandahar said:

90%of destruction in Syria is caused by this wahabi piggy hamster:

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January 29th, 2012, 10:40 am

 

367. Ghufran said:

أكد قائد كتيبية أبابيل في حلب النقيب المظلي المنشق عمار الواوي لـ”إيلاف” مسؤولية كتيبته” كتيبة أبابيل “عن مقتل رجل الأعمال الحلبي هيثم خانكان، مبررًا أن رجل الأعمال المقتول كان يموّل الشبيحة في مدينة حلب.
وأشار إلى “أن هذه العملية هي العملية الثالثة للكتيبة بعد تفجيرين لسيارة شبيح ومحل شبيح آخر”، وقال “وجّهت تحذيرات كثيرة، وعبر تصريحات وبيانات عدة للشبيحة، ولمن يدعمهم في حلب”، وأضاف دعوت الشبيحة إلى عدم قتل شعبهم، ووضعت أسماءهم وأرقام هواتفهم، بعدما وثقت المعلومات.
وقال “أعطيناهم مهلاً أكثر من مهل جامعة الدول العربية، لكنهم لم يرتدعوا”. وأوضح الواوي “وجّهت النداء أيضًا إلى مموّلي الشبيحة، أدعوهم الى التوبة، والوقوف مع الشعب، وأعدت التحذير مرارًا (ياعائلة بري وعائلة خانكان وعائلة زيدو…) ولم يصغي إليّ أي أحد”.
now we have a collection of anti government armed groups killing people right and left using Fatwas,self-made excuses and a variety of slogans to justify violence.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:49 am

 

368. mjabali said:

حجة vera wang texting while on the highway:

Hajj Juergen put a link to a very idiotic article about the Alawis few days ago. He asked you all what you think of the content and Majdkhaldoun volunteered and rambled about the Alawis some takfiri nonsense equal to the ignorance he came up with here regarding the interpretation of al-Quran.

Hajj Juergen asked you guys to inform him a little about your countrymen the Alawis and you failed to even provide one shred of information. Probably you were on the highway busy searching the internet while you driving looking for some boots or bags or probably buying some Iranian documentaries.

Again, Hajj Juergen wanted to know something about tafseer and you guys are failing him again and can not even come up with one decent info about that matter.

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January 29th, 2012, 10:54 am

 

369. anton said:

Please do not touch Der Sydnaia its the Makeh of the Syrian’s christians

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January 29th, 2012, 10:56 am

 

370. Alan said:

It’s “dawe bellyali saeedeh” meaning in english “Enlighten in a happy night”, it’s a christmas song for Jesus when he comes that night and Bless everyone with love and peace

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January 29th, 2012, 11:07 am

 

371. Ghufran said:

Losing the battle in the outskirts of Damascus will bring the fight to Damascus proper,after that we will not be able to make any predictions about the course of events.
Regardless of where you stand,pray for the safety and well being of innocent Syrians most of whom have little to do with this bloody tragedy.

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January 29th, 2012, 11:10 am

 

372. anton said:

dear @364

if you are not Syrian and you don’t contribute any goods for Syria then stay out of it please, its enough propaganda, its hearting every one there

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January 29th, 2012, 11:11 am

 

373. Alan said:

364. JUERGEN said:

I heard that near Damascus Airport have been attacks, anybody can confirm that?

who tell you ? is It the ciphered military order?

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January 29th, 2012, 11:20 am

 

374. anton said:

dear @ 361

you too, enough is enough !!

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January 29th, 2012, 11:21 am

 

375. Alan said:

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January 29th, 2012, 11:32 am

 

376. irritated said:

371. Alan said:

ref: 364. JUERGEN

No, it is one his “friends” who told him

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January 29th, 2012, 11:49 am

 

377. majedkhaldoun said:

Juergen
I heared that the FSA control the road close to the Damascus airport but the airport is still working, however there is a major defection by rocket phalange,close to Damascus,and as a result the regime brought tanks to inside Damascus,and placed them in different part of Damascus,what is true is that guns sound are heared all night in Damascus,by Damascus residents.

Mjabali
Your hatred toward me is blinding you and making you lie , all islamic scholars say that the prophet did not interpreted Quraan, he discussed few verses only in his hadith, you do not know me to say my arabic is not good,and the truth is that you do not know much about history, please spare us your lies.

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January 29th, 2012, 11:52 am

 

378. Syria no Kandahar said:

Tara the jardoon fan has lost it,she compares killing hundred of thousands of Iraqi
Christians in a country they lived in for five thousand years by her Saudi Wahhabi
Friends to killing of 3 people in the 300 million people US after 9/11,one of the killed ones in Arizona was copt and was mistaken for a Moslem .how logical is Tara,she should work for Aljazera 140000$ just for spreading her lies.

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January 29th, 2012, 12:02 pm

 

379. zoo said:

Turkey may provide Hamas with $300 million in annual aid

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/turkey-may-provide-hamas-with-300-million-in-annual-aid-1.409708

Hamas has been facing financial difficulties due to late and reduced payments from Iran; Meshal deciding between Qatar and Jordan for new Hamas headquarters, after leaving Syria.

{..}

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January 29th, 2012, 12:06 pm

 

380. Haytham Khoury said:

The noose is closing on the Assad regime.
Yesterday 120 demonstrations in the city of Aleppo alone.
Today, the FSA is closing on Damascus.

And some rumors like this:
عاااااااااااجل عااااااااااااجل عاااااااجل انشقاقات في ساحة العباسيين وشارع بغداد في دمشق انشقاق لواء مع 600 عنصر انشقاق سرية صواريخ وتهدد بقصف القصر الجمهوري وافرع المخابرات والجيش الحر يهدد بقصف التلفزيون السوري اقسم انها معلومات مؤكدة

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January 29th, 2012, 12:18 pm

 

381. Tara said:

Kandi

Not good enough salary for me.

Kandahar, it is not a revolution of Muslims against Christians and Alawis. I am afraid that the minorities in Syria are fulfiling a self- prophesed future and making a historical mistake because they by supporting the tyrant are pushing it to
morph into that. Why can’t you guys understand this? When chaos prevails, no one can stop it and it will last forever.

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January 29th, 2012, 12:20 pm

 

382. bronco said:

Jad
The GCC boycott of the observers mission, their intention to arm the FSA further, and the “regime change” resolution they are trying to impose on Syria through the UN, is a clear provocation for an all out war.
This is happening now.
Nothing can now stop the Syrian Army to attack and dislodge the armed mutineers who are now exposing the civilians to death instead of protecting them. The army is in the process of eradicating the mutineers before they are able to obtain more advanced weapons from the GCC.
While in Edlib, the mutineers could obtain weapons through Turkey, in the suburbs of Damascus it is much harder. Zabadani is sealed off and the mutineers there are trapped, they can’t rescue the others.

The outcome of this war will decide what is next for Syria.

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January 29th, 2012, 12:24 pm

 

383. majedkhaldoun said:

Please read AlQuds
الجيش السوري الحر يؤكد أن المعارك تقترب من دمشق

Thank you Haytham, the news are accurate and I mentioned some earlier

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January 29th, 2012, 12:26 pm

 
 

385. irritated said:

Haytham

You know that rumors like these are often indication of desperation when one is loosing.

“And some rumors like this:
عاااااااااااجل عااااااااااااجل عاااااااجل انشقاقات في ساحة العباسيين وشارع بغداد في دمشق انشقاق لواء مع 600 عنصر انشقاق سرية صواريخ وتهدد بقصف القصر الجمهوري وافرع المخابرات والجيش الحر يهدد بقصف التلفزيون السوري اقسم انها معلومات مؤكدة”

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January 29th, 2012, 12:27 pm

 

386. Syria no Kandahar said:

Toto(you started)
Don’t run away from your lies.stay in the subject.What most of Syrians(even Sunnis )see in the horizon is uglier,filthier,Islamic Terrorist Tyran.Watch your friends monsters in Alfarook in the link above telling their victim:
What do you want befor dying wlak?

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January 29th, 2012, 12:30 pm

 

387. SANDRO LOEWE said:

Assad loses control over Sabqa – Damascus suburbs

الأسد فقد سيطرته على سقبا- ريف

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January 29th, 2012, 12:34 pm

 

388. zoo said:

Arab chief seeks Russian, Chinese change on Syria

CAIRO – Agence France-Presse
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/arab-chief-seeks-russian-chinese-change-on-syria.aspx?pageID=238&nID=12522&NewsCatID=352

Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi said on Sunday he hopes Russia and China will change their stance on Syria and allow the UN Security Council to issue a resolution backing a League plan to end the crisis.

“I hope these two countries will alter their position concerning the draft UN Security Council resolution which would adopt the Arab plan,” Arabi said before leaving Cairo for the United Nations in New York.

“Contacts are under way” between the Arab League “and Russia and China on the situation in Syria,” Arabi added, in remarks reported by Egypt’s official MENA news agency.

He said the League’s decision to suspend its monitoring mission on the ground had been taken “because of a significant deterioration of the situation in Syria to ensure the security of the observers.” Arabi on Saturday said the League was pulling out its observer mission which had been on the ground for just over a month “after the Syrian government chose the option of escalation, which increased the number of victims.” The opposition Syrian National Council has called for protests outside Russian diplomatic missions against Moscow opposing a draft European-Arab UN resolution on the crisis that backs the League plan calling on President Bashar al-Assad to quit.

SNC chief Burhan Ghaliun was also travelling to New York on Sunday “to present the Syrian case… and demand protection.” European and Arab nations pushing the new resolution are reported to be reworking the draft after the withdrawal of the League monitoring mission.

The text, backed by Britain, France, Germany and Arab Security Council member Morocco, calls on the international community to back the Arab League plan to end the crisis.

The League plan looks to a halt in the violence and Assad transferring power to his deputy ahead of negotiations.

Moscow opposes the draft resolution, and has proposed its own draft assigning equal blame for the violence on both Assad and the opposition, an option dismissed by the West.

January/29/2012
CAIRO – Agence France-Presse
Arab League Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi. REUTERS photo

Arab League Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi. REUTERS photo
Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi said on Sunday he hopes Russia and China will change their stance on Syria and allow the UN Security Council to issue a resolution backing a League plan to end the crisis.

“I hope these two countries will alter their position concerning the draft UN Security Council resolution which would adopt the Arab plan,” Arabi said before leaving Cairo for the United Nations in New York.

“Contacts are under way” between the Arab League “and Russia and China on the situation in Syria,” Arabi added, in remarks reported by Egypt’s official MENA news agency.

He said the League’s decision to suspend its monitoring mission on the ground had been taken “because of a significant deterioration of the situation in Syria to ensure the security of the observers.” Arabi on Saturday said the League was pulling out its observer mission which had been on the ground for just over a month “after the Syrian government chose the option of escalation, which increased the number of victims.” The opposition Syrian National Council has called for protests outside Russian diplomatic missions against Moscow opposing a draft European-Arab UN resolution on the crisis that backs the League plan calling on President Bashar al-Assad to quit.

SNC chief Burhan Ghaliun was also travelling to New York on Sunday “to present the Syrian case… and demand protection.” European and Arab nations pushing the new resolution are reported to be reworking the draft after the withdrawal of the League monitoring mission.

The text, backed by Britain, France, Germany and Arab Security Council member Morocco, calls on the international community to back the Arab League plan to end the crisis.

The League plan looks to a halt in the violence and Assad transferring power to his deputy ahead of negotiations.

Moscow opposes the draft resolution, and has proposed its own draft assigning equal blame for the violence on both Assad and the opposition, an option dismissed by the West.

January/29/2012

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January 29th, 2012, 12:35 pm

 

389. zoo said:

Arab FMs to meet next Sunday on Syria
2012-01-30 00:09:11
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-01/30/c_122626754.htm

CAIRO, Jan. 29 (Xinhua) — The Arab foreign ministers will hold an urgent meeting at the Arab League (AL) headquarters in Cairo next Sunday on the Syrian issue, the AL deputy chief said Sunday.

The meeting will be chaired by Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who also heads an Arab ministerial committee in charge of handling the Syrian crisis, AL Deputy Secretary General Ahmed bin Helli was quoted by Egyptian official news agency MENA as saying in a statement.

The meeting will discuss a report by Sheikh Hamad and AL Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi, who are at the United Nations seeking support for the AL peace plan for the Syrian crisis, Helli said.

The ministers will also discuss the status of the AL observer mission in Syria, which has already been suspended, to decide whether to withdraw the monitors or alter the nature of their mission, he added

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January 29th, 2012, 12:42 pm

 

390. zoo said:

Syrian army enters restive Damascus suburbs to confront armed men
2012-01-30 00:09:25
DAMASCUS, Jan. 29 (Xinhua) — The Syrian military entered Sunday some restive suburbs of the capital Damascus to confront what the government described as “armed terrorist groups,” a witness told Xinhua anonymously.

The army has entered restive suburbs such as Douma, Harasta, Ghouta and Kafr-batna, the source said.

Earlier Sunday, an armed group targeted a military bus with a roadside bomb in the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya, killing six soldiers, including two officers, according to official SANA news agency.

Meanwhile, the Doha-based al-Jazeera TV cited activists as saying that at least 48 people were killed during the army’s operations in restive neighborhoods of Damascus.
(…}

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January 29th, 2012, 12:44 pm

 

391. Alan said:

378. HAYTHAM KHOURY
عاااااااااااجل عااااااااااااجل عاااااااجل انشقاقات في ساحة العباسيين وشارع بغداد في دمشق
لوين مستعجل ؟
ثمانية سنوات و نصف ، و الولايات المتحدة بأعتى امكاناتها لم تسطع الفصل في العراق وانسحبت باقتصاد منهك و بفردة جزمة في وجهة رئيسها! هل تظن ان كل أموالي قطر و السعودية ستكون كافية للفصل ؟ الاسرائيلي فقط من طرفكم يدرك البعد الحقيقي للموضوع ! خدلك اركيلة !

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January 29th, 2012, 12:49 pm

 

392. jad said:

‎Why I defend Syria
Dr. Omar Dhaher
“I defend Syria because I do not want to see American or French tanks in the streets of Damascus with Israeli journalists covering the news freely, reporting scenes of falling statues of Assad with the intention of having them replaced with statues of apes. This did happen in Iraq. I defend Syria because I do not want to hear that Jewish extremists have come to swim in Barada River, claiming that they have been promised to do so as they are doing now at the River Tigris. I defend Syria because I see in it the Grenada of today, the last Arabic bastion of dignity. If it falls, God forbid, that will be the end of Arabs. Syrian brothers, do not allow Netanyahu to enter Damascus disguised with Saudi head dress and a Qatari sandal.”

“أدافع عن سوريا لأني أحب سوريا وشعب سوريا، ولا أريد أن أرى عراقاً آخر تُقطّع أوصاله ويُقتّل فيه الناس كل يوم بالجملة في الشوارع وفي الجوامع وفي الكنائس. أدافع عن سوريا لأني لا أريد أن أرى دبابات أمريكية أو فرنسية في شوارع الشام تترجل منها الصحفيات الإسرائيليات ليغطين بكل حرية وتشفي مشاهد سقوط تماثيل الأسد التي يراد أن تحل محلها تماثيل القردة. حصل ذلك في بغداد. أدافع عن سوريا لأني لا أريد أن أسمع أن متطرفي اليهود جاءوا يسبحون في نهر بردى ويدّعون أنهم موعودون بذلك كما يفعلون في نهر دجلة. أدافع عن سوريا لأني أرى أنها غرناطة العصر الحديث، آخر قلاع الوجود العربي، إن سقطت – لا سامح الله – فعلى العرب السلام. أخي السوري لا تدع نتانياهو يدخل دمشق متخفياً بغترة وعقال سعوديين وبنعال قطري”
د. عمر ظاهر
http://www.arabtimes.com/portal/article_display.cfm?ArticleID=25568

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January 29th, 2012, 12:55 pm

 

393. jad said:

ALan,
LOLOL Good one :)

Haytham,
Seriously, Alabaseyyen plaza defected! Form who the Stadium next to it or the Supermarket?
Baghdad Street too? Oh I see it, if you check Google map you can see that Baghdad Street is moved to 7feer Alfo2a حفير الفوقا

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January 29th, 2012, 12:58 pm

 

394. Tara said:

Kandahar

Toto? Mea Culpa! What was I thinking by calling you Kandi? I like Foufou or Joujou but not Toutou.

I am watching Beauty and the Beast in 3D with my daughter as I am writing this post. Bell is ok but my favorite is Ariel. She is the prettiest. Can’t post much for the next hour or two as I like to give Yara, my daughter and the people I like my undivided attention but could not resist answering.

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January 29th, 2012, 1:02 pm

 

395. Anton said:

Dear Zoo @387

I called my Family in Damascus today, they confirm that the syrian’s armies enters all cities around Damascus and have all off them under control by now…

Damscuse is very quite and business as usual.

Good bless Syria , the Syrian people and the Syrian army

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January 29th, 2012, 1:07 pm

 

396. Tara said:

Ah.. Just saw something. I have a link I can’t wait to post…..Unfortunately, can’t cut and paste using a smart phone. Later.

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January 29th, 2012, 1:07 pm

 

397. jad said:

Occupiers in any shape have no place in our homeland ever:
اغنية جوليا بطرس – مقاوم 2012

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January 29th, 2012, 1:16 pm

 

398. jad said:

No to militarization of the uprising.
No to international intervention.
No to sectarianism.
It will destroy Syria and kill more Syrians.

هيئة التنسيق الوطنية في سوريا
معا من أجل سوريا حره وديمقراطيه
عن وضع الثورة؛
إنها في استمرار دائم، ولكن؛
من يحولها لمسلحة فهو يقتلها، السلاح لحماية المتظاهرين.
من يتخيل حلاً عن طريق الجامعة العربية، نقول له:لا، الجامعة لا شيء، الثوار كل شيء
من يتخيل حلاً عن طريق مجلس الأمن، نقول له: لا، المجلس للتفاوض على سورية
ثقوا بالشعب، كونوا جزءاً منه، مجلس الأمن لا يقود الثورة، لا تستمروا بالتفريط بالثورة
إنكم تشوهوها. تقولون بالسلاح وبالتدويل العسكري. هذا يعني أن السلاح من أجل التدخل العسكري، هذه كارثة حقيقية، القوى التي تعمل فقط من أجل هذا هي بالضبط كالنظام، تريد التضحية بالشعب الثائر.
سورية في خطر نعم، لأن الثورة في خطر فقط.
يتحمل النظام المسؤولية الكاملة عن أي تدويل وعسكرة، ولكن هناك أطراف في المجلس الوطني تتحمل نفس المسؤولية، وبما يخص حصراً تحويل الثورة لمسلحة ولخطر التدخل العسكري؛ أو ما يؤدي إلى مخاطر تتساوى مع التدخل الخارجي.
ثقتنا بالسوريين فقط، الثورة تنجح بقدراتهم، وقد نجحت في الأشهر السابقة.
لا نريد من يتقن القتل، أن يتحكم بمستقبل بلادنا
على النظام أن يرتدع وعلى هواة القتل ان يخرجوا من الثورة
فهي بدونهم ثورة حقيقية وعبرهم ثورة مضادة، ولكن مع تغيير في السلطة.

سيزولون، فالناس قد تصفق قليلا ولكنها ستكنس كل من لا يقود سورية نحو:
دولة مدنية، إعطاء الفقراء حقوقهم، العمل على استعادة الجولان، التنديد بكل من جلب التدخل العسكري.
نريد سورية لكل السوريين؛ المنطق الطائفي منطق تقسيم ومحاصصة وتدمير لإرث سورية في العلمنة والحداثة، كبنيات أولية.
لنعمل من أجل سورية لكل السوريين، القوى المدنية واليسارية ومختلف المؤيدين لهذا التوجه عليهم التشارك، وإلا فإن هناك الكثير الكثير من القذارات ستستخدم ضد سورية شعباً وأرضاً.
…………..
عمار ديوب

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January 29th, 2012, 1:28 pm

 

399. jad said:

Zouzou,
I told you so! Ayman Abd Alnour is a LIAR:

بعد نشر أنباء تفيد بمنح حزبهم إدارة ذاتية في محافظة الحسكة
صالح مسلم لسوريا الجديدة: ما نشر في موقع كلنا شركاء كذبة كبرى بحجم المأساة السورية
2012-01-29
صرّح المهندس صالح مسلم رئيس حزب الاتحاد الديمقراطي لسوريا الجديدة بأنهم كحزب مشاركون في الثورة السورية منذ بدايتها. و أنهم استطاعوا الحفاظ على استمراريتها وسلميتها في المناطق الكردية كما رأوها مناسباً. و أضاف مسلم بأنهم لازالوا على موقفهم هذا و الذي يتناسب مع نهج هيئة التنسيق الوطنية التي هم جزء منها و أنهم يساهمون في جميع قراراتها ومواقفها.
و قال مسلم بأنه لا يمكن الادعاء بأنهم يقفون إلى جانب النظام الاستبدادي القمعي الذي سفك دمائهم على مدى سنوات و أضاف: نحن الحزب الكردي الوحيد الذي قدم شهداء في أقبية مخابرات النظام، فهل يمكن أن نقف إلى جانب جلادينا؟
و قال مسلم بأن الذين يعملون من أجل سفك الدم السوري وتسببوا في تسليح الثورة ولا يعرفون سوى العنف نهجاً ولهم علاقات مع بؤر لاتهمها الدم السوري يحاولون تلطيخ مواقف حزبهم ومواقف هيئة التنسيق الوطنية منذ البداية، ويشيعون مثل هذه الأكاذيب, مؤكدا ما نشر في موقع كلنا شركاء كذبة كبرى بحجم المأساة السورية على حد تعبيره.
و أضاف مسلم حزبهم يساهم في تأسيس النظام البديل الذي يراه مناسباً للشعب الكردي بل ولكل سوريا بعد زوال النظام الاستبدادي الراهن، وهو نظام الإدارة الذاتية الديمقراطية، قائلا بأن “الزبداني” قد بدأت بتطبيقه على أرض الواقع في الآونة الأخيرة على حدا تعبيره.
و قد كان موقع كلنا شركاء قد نشر يوم أمس خبرا مفاده بأن النظام السوري قد منح حزب الاتحاد الديمقراطي إدارة ذاتية في محافظة الحسكة و أن النظام أعطى الصلاحيات الكاملة لأعضاء الحزب لقيادة أمر الحدود وخاصة الوضع الجمركي، وعمليات التهريب التي تحصل بين الدولتين وفقا لما جاء في الخبر.
إعداد: مكسيم العيسى
http://thenewsyria.net/syria_article.php?z=ar&id=4568

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January 29th, 2012, 1:34 pm

 

400. jad said:

“الجالية السوريية في اميركا Syrian People in Usa
كل ما تكتبه صفحات العورة عن سقوط ساحة العباسيين بيد الفوار … أو جعلها كراج للدبابات عار عن الصحة.
كل ما تروجه صفحات العورة عن قطع طرق في العاصمة دمشق عار عن الصحة.
كل ما يروج عن إيقاف حركة المطار أو تشديد أمني في العاصمة كاذب وغير صحيح.
سماع انفجارات قوية من جهة الغوطة و تحديدا من جهة المليحة حتى الساعة 11 ظهرا وشعر بها سكان جرمانا بشكل واضح و قوي.

حاولت صفحات العورة ترويج تنحي الرئيس بشار الأسد و سفره وهذا الخبر لا يحتاج إلى تعليق”

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January 29th, 2012, 1:43 pm

 

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