The Annan Peace Proposal

President Assad walked around Baba Amr neighborhood in Homs in this video. He promises to make it “better than it was previously” and demands a timeline for the completion of repair work. Al-Jazeera reports that his motorcade was sniped at during the trip.

The Syrian military is carrying out “mopping up” operations in the A’zaz, Hamadan, and Khraytan area, the poor industrial suburbs and towns north of Aleppo. Here is a video of an Mi-2 helicopter that fires a rocket, reportedly over A’zaz (Aleppo) (Thanks Thomas Pierret). Since Monday morning I have been receiving calls about the fact that the roads to the north are closed because of military action. Turkey has shuttered its embassy  and Turkish airlines is pulling its flights to and from Syria, which is causing panic in Aleppo, where no open access to Turkey remains open. Businessmen are despondent about being able to keep business going between the two neighboring countries.

Annan says Syria accepts his UN peace plan which Annan insists is an “important initial step”.

Annan said the plan deals with “political discussions, withdrawal of heavy weapons and troops from population centers, humanitarian assistance being allowed in unimpeded, release of prisoners, freedom of movement and access for journalists to go in and out.”

“So we will need to see how we move ahead and implement this agreement that they have accepted,” said Annan.

Annan’s six point plan and its likelihood of success:

President Assad is looking for a way to end the uprising against his regime without stepping down or turning over power to the revolutionary forces. He believes that the Annan plan can be a step towards regaining international acceptance of his government.

Both sides believe that time is on their side. The Syrian government believes it has the revolutionaries on the run and is carrying out “mopping up” exercises in all the main centers of revolutionary action: Homs, Idlib, and the suburbs of Damascus and Aleppo.

The opposition equally believes that time and the world is on its side. It has refused to negotiate with the regime, believing that it will prevail because of international support, international sanctions against the regime, which have pushed the economy into a tailspin, and because both the Arab World and West have stated repeatedly that the Assad regime is finished and is a pariah to the international order. They await arms shipments, money and widespread defections to tip the balance of power against the Syrian Army. The opposition believes, correctly, that President Assad will not carry out reforms that will lead to his ouster. The new UN peace plan does not insist on Assad handing over power to the revolutionary leadership, which is why Assad finds it acceptable and why the opposition has denounced it.

Prohibiting Males of Military age to leave the Country

The Syrian government is prohibiting males aged between 18-42 from leaving the country before receiving clearance by the Military Conscription department. Many upper-class Syrians are leaving the country. Most with children have made arrangements to leave when the school year finishes in order not to disrupt the education of their young. Anyone with a child over 18 will now be stuck.


One Christian industrialist from Aleppo whom I know is telling his friends that he is leaving Syria. His factory in the northern suburbs has been shut down by the opposition and he is unable to travel there any longer because of military operations. He will abandon his property and has already informed his workers that he cannot keep the factory open and that they must fend for themselves.

Another factory owner, whom I know, organized a meeting with opposition leaders in A’zaz, where his factory is located. He could not travel there himself, but delegated a factory administrator who knows the opposition leaders of the town to carry out the talks on his behalf. The factor has already had 300,000 Syrian pounds requisitioned. The opposition agreed to allowing him to keep the factory open. I do not know what further arrangements were made in order to keep its doors open.

Landis and Bassma Kodmani, spokesperson for the Syrian National Council, discuss the state of the Syrian opposition and the Istanbul meeting with Sophie Claudet
Reporter for Al-Monitor

Also see this discussion of Syria with Robert Wright

Robert Wright and Joshua Landis (University of Oklahoma, Syria Comment) Discuss the situation in Syria

Alawites: the Mormons of Syria 7:23
The byzantine ideological backdrop to the revolts 9:57
Joshua: Mistrust could lead to a failed state 7:16
The available ideology for young rebels is jihad 8:20
For the West, another multibillion-dollar swamp? 10:52
Joshua: Intervention could make the chaos worse 3:03

News Round Up

Homs: A request for information about why it became a center of the Syrian revolution

My name is Jordan Cannon and I am a student at Oklahoma University putting together a research paper on the topic of why Homs became the capital of the Syrian Revolution. I am trying to gather a history of the city and insight from native Syrians to write the real story.  Anyone willing to provide me assistance would be contributing to getting the word out as I plan on publishing this paper. Thank you.

Jordan Cannon
(580) 262-0112

“L’islam dans la révolution syrienne : 3 questions à Thomas Pierret,” La revue Politique étrangère.

Eating Cinnabon in Damascus
Why are foreign brands like KFC, the Four Seasons, and Cinnabon still trying to make a buck in Syria?

With insurance rates soaring, logistics risky, and the plummeting Syrian pound making import purchases increasingly expensive, the cost of doing business in Syria has skyrocketed. As business owners raise prices to compensate, middle-class customers with shrinking purchasing power are increasingly staying away, even from previously insulated retail spots like the Cham City Center, a mall that brought in foreign brands like Cinnabon and United Colors of Benetton when it opened in 2007. “It was very puzzling to me, but until the last week of December, Cham City Center mall was packed whenever I went, even during the middle of the week,” said one foreign banker based in Damascus until last month, when his bank closed up its Syria office.

The strain has not gone without notice in the Assad regime’s propaganda department, which has tried to convince consumers they can do just fine without the rest of the world. All over downtown Damascus, added the banker, billboards are preaching self-sustainability as part of a governmental public awareness campaign to put a euphemistic spin on things: “Let us wear what we weave,” the billboards tell Damascenes. “Let us drink what we squeeze.” “Let us eat what we grow.”…

Costa has been putting into storage the equipment and furniture for its seven shuttered shops, hoping for a brighter day, according to a franchise manager. He added that KFC, which the franchise runs as well, closed two locations in Aleppo and two in Damascus, after members of its management staff came under a hail of bullets while driving on the country’s main north-south highway past Homs last April. Employees from both brands have been re-assigned to office work or to one of the safer KFCs in Damascus. One KFC remains in Aleppo, since, unlike Costa’s coffee, chicken can be sourced locally, thus avoiding the now-treacherous highway route.

All Syrian businesses are being forced to scrimp, save, or close up shop, not just those with foreign goods. Though the government has not provided any economic indicators for months, some estimate that after years of 5 percent yearly growth, gross domestic product may have shrunk by up to 15 percent over the past year — a downturn that affects all types of businesses, most severely, of course, in restive areas like Homs. The closure that probably had the biggest impact on the population was the recent announcement by major foreign airliners like Air France that they were stopping flights to Syria, a move that has increased the sense of isolation, says Yazigi of The Syria Report. And with the 12-hour power cuts and fuel shortages now common in Damascus, even for the well-off, the idea of hopping a flight to Paris seems like a world away….

By Andrew J. Tabler and David Pollock

Failure to support the opposition “within Syria” — armed and unarmed — would allow Assad to stay in power for much longer.
During their March 25 meeting, President Obama and Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed that part of the agenda of the April 1 “Friends of Syria” summit in Istanbul will concern “nonlethal assistance” to the opposition “within Syria.” This indicates that the administration is beginning to accept a “tragic truth”: without much greater U.S. support for the opposition on the ground, Bashar al-Assad’s regime will certainly massacre many more civilians all over Syria, and Assad himself will almost certainly remain in power for the foreseeable future.

Egyptian liberal bloc walks out of Islamist-dominated parliament

Lawmakers from the liberal bloc walked out of an Egyptian parliamentary vote deciding on the composition of a 100-person panel tasked with drafting Egypt’s new constitution. The bloc, which includes three liberal parties that hold nine percent of seats in Egypt’s lower house of parliament, cited differences with the Islamist parties, which hold a majority in both houses of the legislature. The constituent assembly will be comprised of 50 sitting politicians and 50 members of trade unions and civil society. Forty of the 50 parliamentarians are expected to come from the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood Freedom and Justice Party or Salifist al-Nour party. Naguib Sawiris, founder of the liberal Free Egyptians Party, said: “It’s ridiculous: A constitution being written by one force and one force alone.”

Comments (268)

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251. jad said:

Kofi Anna mission, the full story:
مساعي كوفي أنان: الحكاية الكاملة

اطّلعت «الأخبار» على تفاصيل المباحثات التي أجراها المبعوث الأممي _ العربي كوفي أنان إلى سوريا، بين دمشق وموسكو والعواصم ذات الصلة، من أجل الحصول على الموافقة على النقاط الست التي اقترحها لحلّ الأزمة السورية. ومن خلال هذه التفاصيل، تتبين ملامح وساطته، الهدف منها، العقبات التي تعترضها، والخطوات التالية. وفي ما يأتي عرضٌ لبعض ما جرى في الغرف المغلقة
ناصر شرارة
«الأخبار» اطّلعت على مجموعة تقارير دبلوماسية تتعلق بعمل أنان وفريقه، ابتداءً من تفاصيل المباحثات بين موفده السرّي إلى دمشق قبل أيام، مروراً ببرنامج التفاوض ما بعد الموافقة السورية على النقاط الست، إلى تفاصيل محادثات أنان في روسيا وما يجري دولياً بحثاً عن قواسم تُنتج التسوية الصعبة.
لكن أنان يركز جهوده في هذه اللحظات على تحقيق هدفين اثنين. الأول يتعلق بالجولة الثانية من مباحثاته مع السلطات السورية ومع معارضي الداخل في دمشق. والثاني يتعلق بسعيه إلى إحراز تقدّم للمعارضة السورية على مستوى إرساء وحدتها. ويرى أنان، بحسب ما يقوله القدوة في لقاء مغلق مع سفراء عرب في جنيف قبل ثلاثة أيام، أن انعدام الوحدة في صفوف المعارضة السورية هو أحد أهم العوامل التي قد تعوق مهمة الموفد الدولي _ العربي.
ثلاث عقبات

يقول القدوة إن العقبات الحالية المعوّقة لمهمة أنان تتوزع على عدة أنواع، منها ما يتصل بالمناخ الدولي الراهن، وعدم وجود توافق دولي على رؤية موحدة للحل في سوريا، الأمر الذي يعكسه عمل مجلس الأمن، وخصوصاً أنه جرى استدعاء المندوبين الكبار قبل أسبوعين للقاء أنان واستيضاحه عن أهداف مهمته وآلياتها والمطلوب دولياً لدعمها.
العقبة الثانية تكمن في صعوبة الجولة الثانية من المفاوضات الحافلة بمئات التفاصيل التي تحتاج إلى إيجاد صيغ تُلائم بينها وبين توزانات دولية وإقليمية متناقضة، وأيضاً بينها وبين شروط متباينة يطرحها النظام السوري من ناحية والمعارضة من ناحية ثانية. أما العقبة الثالثة، فتتركز على واقع المعارضة السورية المفكّكة. ويحدّد القدوة في اللقاء الدبلوماسي نفسه عنوان الخطوة الثانية في مهمة أنان في سوريا، وتتمثل في «التباحث بتنظيم آلية مراقبة، وإقرار بروتوكول ذي صلة لتنظيم عمل المراقبين».
في موسكو، عرض وزير خارجية روسيا سيرغي لافروف أمام أنان موقف بلاده من مهمته، المدعومة روسياً، وشروط استمرار هذا الدعم، وذلك على الشكل الآتي: أولاً، أبدت موسكو ارتياحها الكبير لمهمة أنان، وامتدحت شخصيته لتمتعه بصدقية عالية وسيرة عمل حافلة بالجدية. ثانياً، قدّمت روسيا وصفاً لمهمة أنان في هذه المرحلة بعد موافقة سوريا على اقتراحه، وهي أنها تقع في «المرحلة التحضيرية الحذرة، وهي مهمة صعبة». ثالثاً، توافقت روسيا مع أنان على نقطتين، الأولى أن يُصار إلى سحب موضوع تنحّي الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد من أي بحث، وهو ما جعل الموفد الدولي يلتقط الإشارة إلى أن مهمته ستفشل في حال غلّفها بهذا الشرط، والثانية تتعلق بالموقف الروسي الحاسم برفض ومنع أي تدخل عسكري خارجي.
وأوضح لافروف، في هذا المجال، لأنان أن روسيا قامت بكل ما عليها بعدما أقنعت النظام السوري بالقبول بخطته، وبالتالي يبقى عليه أن يبقى ضمن إطار مهمته ونقاطها المعلنة. وكان هذا الكلام تعبيراً واضحاً عن شروط موسكو للإبقاء على دعمها لمهمته، وهي مطالب لم يعتبرها أنان شروطاً، لأنها تمثّل مسلّمات في تفكيره بخصوص مهمته.
رابعاً، برزت تباينات خلال النقاش بين أنان ولافروف، حرص الطرفان على التقليل من أهميتها، على اعتبارها «تباينات تقنية»، وهي على صلة بتفسيرهما لآلية «مراقبة وقف العنف». وهي مادة نقاش بعثة أنان المقبلة في سوريا. وقد عبّر الجانب الروسي عن ذلك على شكل استفسارات من بينها: استفسر الروس عن الترابط ما بين «انسحاب القوات الأمنية النظامية السورية من المراكز السكنية وحولها، كما يرد في النقاط الست، وبين «من هي» الجهة التي ستكون مؤتمنة على الحفاظ على الأمن بعد الانسحاب، وسألوا: هل الشرطة مثلاً ستتولى هذه الأمور؟».

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March 28th, 2012, 8:58 pm


252. irritated said:

#250 Sheila

9/11 and all recent terrorists killing have been executed by Sunni Islamists ( including the last killing in Paris). No Shia (Iran, Hezbollah) have been involved in any terrorists acts in the last 15 years.

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March 28th, 2012, 9:26 pm


253. irritated said:

#233 Juergen

“the owner of the publishing company was jewish ”

I thought you said that Germans do not know who is Jewish or not, and that don’t care.
Obviously when it matters, you do know…

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March 28th, 2012, 9:36 pm


254. zoo said:

Analysis: Arab revolts bring Islamist regional vision closer

(Reuters) – The Muslim Brotherhood has quietly spread its influence far beyond Egypt in its 84-year history, but Arab revolts have opened broad new political horizons the group hopes will reflect its founder’s vision for the Arab and Islamic world.

“There is no doubt that Hassan al-Banna believed in Islamic unity and not just Arab unity. But with such a vision we must consider reality and what is possible,” said Mahmoud Ghozlan, a member of the Brotherhood’s executive bureau.

Interviewed at the group’s new headquarters in Cairo, he called such unity a “long-term objective”, but seemed alive to the possibilities thrown up by a ferment in which Islamists are driving mainstream politics across North Africa and beyond.

“This region is in a period of deep-rooted change,” the 64-year-old said. “Starting from Tunisia and ending with Syria, the nature of the region and alliances will change.”

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March 28th, 2012, 9:39 pm


255. zoo said:

Squeezed by Turkey and Qatar in a last ditch before the FOS,
Syrian opposition hastily claims unity under SNC.
How credible it is as many very important opposition groups are not present?

By Thaer Abbas
Istanbul, Asharq Al-Awsat – Syria’s splintered opposition yesterday reached an agreement to unite under the umbrella of the Syrian National Council [SNC], in an effort to show the world that they are a genuine alternative to the Bashar al-Assad regime.

In addition to this, the National Co-ordination Committee [NCC] refused to attend the meeting.
In addition to al-Maleh, Syrian opposition figure Walid al-Bani also withdrew from the meeting, claiming that he had not been consulted.
The Kurdish National Council also walked out due to the absence of any reference to a settlement for Kurdish Syrians. They had called for constitutional recognition of the Kurdish people, and guarantees for a democratic and just solution to the Kurdish issue in Syria, based on international covenants and agreements and within the framework of the United Nations.

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March 28th, 2012, 9:57 pm


256. zoo said:

Turkey is left in the cold from the meeting in Baghdad

There are three main reasons for Turkey’s exclusion from the meeting.
The first is the current chilly relationship between Ankara and Baghdad over the latter’s accusations that the Turkish government is seeking to increase its influence in its southern neighbor. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki objected to Turkey’s participation, the Hürriyet Daily News has learned.

The second reason for Turkey’s exclusion from the meeting seems to stem from the Arab League’s intention to distance itself from the policies of Turkey and some Western powers, which are focused on toppling al-Assad.

Divided over the future of al-Assad, the members of the Arab League will likely endorse Kofi Annan’s mission, which has received a positive response from Damascus. The Annan Plan is perceived as being much more realistic than other competing plans in many Arab countries, who are growing increasingly suspicious of the Friends of Syria initiative. Some Arab countries believe the league moved too quickly in demanding that al-Assad leave office – losing some political maneuvering room by doing so. They have also laid part of the blame on al-Arabi for remaining under the influence of Davutoğlu, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Related to these differing positions over Syria, the third reason for Turkey’s exclusion reflects growing concerns about rising Turkish interference in the Arab world’s internal affairs. A good majority of Arab politicians, scholars and journalists suspect that increasing Turkish influence carries with it the motive of glorifying the Ottoman past, something the Turkish diplomatic establishment strongly denies.


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March 28th, 2012, 10:17 pm


257. zoo said:

More criticism of the rebels abuses popping up…

U.S. ambassador got reports on Syrian opposition abuses
Susan Cornwell Reuters
2:36 p.m. CDT, March 27, 2012,0,5430320.story

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, said on Tuesday he had received reports that armed Syrian opposition groups had engaged in human rights abuses as well as Syrian government forces, and had warned both sides against committing such acts.

Ford also expressed skepticism about reports that Syria had accepted the peace plan of U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan, saying it would be best to look for action, not words from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“I have to tell you that my own experience with him (Assad) is you want to see steps on the ground and not just take his word at face value,” Ford said.

The United States announced on February 6 it was closing its embassy in Syria because of the worsening security situation there but Ford remains ambassador, working from Washington.

At a Capitol Hill hearing, Ford was asked about recent statements by the U.S.-based group Human Rights Watch that armed opposition groups in Syria had committed serious human rights abuses. It said these abuses included kidnapping, detention and torture of security force members and government supporters.

“We had reports like that last year, when some of the fighting in Homs became really serious,” Ford said.

“We raised it even in Syria when my embassy was still open. We discussed it with some of the local revolution council representatives – who are themselves not members of armed groups, but certainly are in contact with them – and emphasized that they would be held to a standard on this if they wanted support from western countries,” he said.

Ford said the United States had also raised the matter with the Syrian National Council, a Syrian opposition coalition, and he noted that last week the council issued a statement saying such abuses were against what they stood for.

Ford gave no details of reports he had received about human rights violations committed by opposition forces.

“But I have to say … the longer the violence continues in Syria, the worse it gets, the more we are going to see hard-liners on both sides, who probably are not particular defenders of human rights, gain influence and that is a real problem, and that’s why we need the transition to move more quickly,” Ford said.

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March 28th, 2012, 10:30 pm


258. omen said:

225. Mawal95 6:03 pm

a policy memo at Al-Jazeera news dated 15 Mar 2012 written by the channel’s head of news Ibrahim Helal states that as a matter of editorial policy at Al-Jazeera there shall be (a) no criticism of foreign intervention proposals for Syria, and (b) no criticism of the Free Syrian Army.

well, aljazeera english violated this memo then. the outlet has given space to voices airing skepticism about arming the rebels and posted reports about militia groups exacting revenge upon captured members of assad’s security forces. this even before the HRW report came out.

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March 28th, 2012, 10:55 pm


259. omen said:

hey, just noticed the andrew tabler article above. he was on pbs newhour last night. what an interesting bio he has.

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March 28th, 2012, 11:00 pm


260. Juergen said:


it matters because he was an important man to establish reconcilation between Germans and Iraelis. He himself made it public that his faith is jewish, thats why i brought it up.


I am afraid that some of those who support Assad may position themselves to a point of no return. My grandmother told me once the story that after Hitler committed suicide the river near my hometown was filled with dead women and men who killed themselves. They thought a Germany without Hitler is unthinkable and the propaganda of the Third Reich did its most damage. But as a famous writer wrote after coming back to Germany in 1945, he wrote that he was not able to find one single nazi, all had been in opposition to this brutal regime.

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March 29th, 2012, 4:06 am


261. ghufran said:

$ is down to 69 Lira with the potential for further decline in the $ as long as there is no major outbreak of violence and there is hope politically, this process will be easily reversed if events turned more bloody and Annan fails,many think Annan does not have a chance.

any comments on the fact that the sign behind nabil alarabi and Iraq’s FM is written in English at the AL summit?

i find it amusing that the summit is headed by a Kurd, not that I have anything against Kurdish brothers, but the AL needs to die in peace, enough lies and acting, the so-called Al-Ummah Alarabiah exist mostly in books that are written when Arabs have little or no oil and many of their countries were occupied by western powers, today the AL is a pathetic group of dictators and corrupt chiefs, with few exceptions, that is irrelevant and regressive (one of my favorite words).

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March 29th, 2012, 3:43 pm


262. Amnesia said:

Dr. Landis said, “The opposition believes, correctly, that President Assad will not carry out reforms that will lead to his ouster.”

Ain’t that the truth. Can’t be said enough, and must be kept in mind when “negotiating” with the regime.

The leaked emails confirm that Bashar thinks he is playing a game, and that the “reforms” are a joke.

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March 30th, 2012, 7:02 am


263. chris said:

AMNESIA how can u say “correctly”
bashar has reformed this country more than what any other leader of an arab country has done in the last 5 years.

the AL hates what he has done because it steers away from sharia but believe me my muslim friends had no trouble accepting the burqa ban infact on the first day we all had a laugh and said what could he allow next?

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March 30th, 2012, 7:49 am


264. Amnesia said:

It was not me that said it. I repeated it, and am glad to do so again. Bashar wil not implement reforms that will see him and his people lose power.

There are so many other things a million times more important than the banning of the veil. Have you been “laughing” with your friends also while corruption and severe human rights abuses were taking place around you? Some might forgive you for ignoring them before, but it is despicable to ignore the problems now.

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March 30th, 2012, 8:17 am


265. chris said:

human rights abuses are everywhere i condone them and will not participate but u have to understand what survival means. there are worse attrocities that no one ever hears about all over the world. syria was never even on a list for persecution on human rights lists. syrians were not trying to escape by boats or illegally in the last 20years were they!

what i am saying is we all felt this way all sects. atleast with bashar we were feeling like we were living in europe! generally those who got in trouble probably were causing trouble. and most people in power subject some form of abuse, not that its right but they do.

look at poor alfie in the uk! when i hear anyone has been stoned or beheaded no matter what religion i cry. i often show my kids videos from memri tv so they can see we have some freedom compared to other mid east countries

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March 30th, 2012, 8:28 am


266. Amnesia said:

You are right to speak against injustice, but direct your attacks where they are deserved. It is not right to focus on some while absolving others of the responsibility for others. A state has a responsibility to protect, and work toward justice and the good of its citizens.

You said above, “syria was never even on a list for persecution on human rights lists.” This is dead wrong. Many countries appear on human rights lists of violating countries, and Syria was one of the worst. It is a police state for God’s sake!

“generally those who got in trouble probably were causing trouble.” Generally, those who got into trouble made someone in power unhappy.

“atleast with bashar we were feeling like we were living in europe!” That’s a stretch most would disagree with. Europe is light years ahead of Syria. I am hopeful, but must be realistic that with the regime in control the future is bleak.

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March 30th, 2012, 8:45 am


267. norman said:

251. sheila said:

What I find most interesting is that all those people who are scared silly from Islamists have no problem accepting Iran and Hizbolla’s support. Go figure.


Doesn’t that make you think that it is not Islam what these people fear but the way your people as you call them understand Islam , as you can see they are not Islamophobe as you and others call them, you should think about the reason and correct it ,

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March 30th, 2012, 10:13 am


268. Sunny said:

Dr. Landis, as Syrian American I need your help understanding Mrs. Kudmani’s objectives of this interview as I was lost!
Also, how your objectives of this blog are collaborating with her objectives?

Today, the number of people who supported her last year in my area went down tremendously, as many came to find out that the ones who are supporting her move in the area condone 9/11?

Furthermore, majority of the Syrians never heard of her and her partner till last year! How do you think this fact influenced her short and long term objectives and unclear motives?!

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April 2nd, 2012, 12:35 pm


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