The Effect of the Conflict on Syrian Banking and Economy

A parody of obituary announcements commonly posted in Syrian neighborhoods when someone dies, this one announcing the passing of the "Syrian Pound"

Someone’s parody of obituary announcements commonly posted in Syrian neighborhoods when someone dies: this one announces the passing of the “Syrian Pound”

 

Economics are often neglected in coverage of the Syrian conflict. In this post we offer a helpful article provided to us by Andrew Cunningham, followed by a brief response from our resident financial expert Ehsani, followed by a new article from the Atlantic Council.

 

Deconstructing the Syrian Banking System

Andrew Cunninghamby Andrew Cunningham with Darien Middle East

 

Amid the daily turmoil in Syria, it comes as something of a surprise to see the financial statements of 12 of the country’s banks posted, quarter by quarter, on the website of the Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE).

By the end of May, all 12 had published audited financial statements for 2012, complete with detailed accounting notes.

But despite the apparent normality projected by the DSE’s website (daily changes in stock prices stream across the home page; weekly trading reports are easily available and up to date), echoes of the civil war can be detected.

In recent weeks, three banks have had trading in their shares suspended because they did not provide the Exchange with reports on their Annual General Assembly meetings –it is hardly surprising that convening an annual meeting, to be attended by numerous prominent directors and shareholders, is difficult to arrange when large gatherings present easy targets for bombs.

On 17 January Bank Bemo Saudi Fransi informed the Exchange that it had transferred all funds in its Deir al-Zour branch to its head office in Damascus. (A few days later, rebel forces captured strategic positions around the city.) On 5 March the bank informed the Exchange that a convoy taking money to the Central Bank had been attacked by an armed gang, resulting in lost funds of S£25mn.

Amid the acres of news that have been published about the conflict in Syria, little has been written about how the conflict has affected the financial system. Economic reporting tends to focus on the exchange rate (which has depreciated by more than 100% since the start of the conflict) and the level of the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves (now probably around $2bn-3bn).

Banking Activity Has Declined Dramatically

Cash, of course, is playing a much greater role in the economy than before. Banking activity is at a minimum as banks run down existing credit facilities while continuing to fund basic imports such as food and medicine. Banks say that they are able to get dollars as well as local currency to stock their ATMs (in areas under government control), although money exchangers are playing an increasingly important role in the distribution of cash.

Banks’ financial statements should give a reasonable impression of the broad trends in a country’s financial system. Those published in Syria – one of the least developed banking systems in the Middle East, even before the civil war – need to be treated with considerable care, although the figures published by subsidiaries of overseas banks are likely to be more reliable since overseas head offices are subject to supervision and auditing standards that are more robust than those applied in Syria.

With that caveat in mind, the financial statements of the 12 banks that report to the DSE show an aggregate 28% decline in loans extended in the two years to the end of 2012 and a 29% decline in customers’ deposits. In both cases the figures under-state the effective shrinkage in the banking system. Syrian banks report their financial results in Syrian pounds but have, at least in the past, extended some loans and taken some deposits in foreign currency. A 50% devaluation in the Syrian pound will increase the reported value of a foreign currency loan by 50% on a bank’s local currency-denominated balance sheet. Without that effect, the banks’ loan portfolios would have shown a much greater decline.

As the crisis has deepened, banks have been converting foreign currency loans into local currency loans in the hope of improving their borrowers’ ability to repay. Again, the accounting treatment around such transactions has a big effect on the banks’ balance sheets, inflating the apparent size of a their loan portfolios.

Well-placed observers comment that the assets and liabilities of the banking system have fallen dramatically since the end of 2012.

Syrian Banks listed on Damascus stock exchange

Syrian Banks listed on Damascus stock exchange: Summary of Financial Position (click image to view full resolution)

 

Syrian Banks’ Exposure to Banks in Major Economies is Now Minimal

The decline of international lending and borrowing by Syrian banks can be seen in figures published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an institution that tracks overseas exposures of banks in the major world economies. According to the BIS, banks in major economies had placed $264mn with banks in Syria (including the Central Bank) at the end of 2009. This figure halved by the end of 2010 and at the end of 2012 was down to $42mn. Placements by Syrian banks (including the Central Bank) with banks in the major economies stood at $16,310mn at the end of 2009, remained steady through 2010 before falling to $2,328mn at the end of 2012. The fall in placements by Syrian banks reflects both the repatriation and spending of much-needed foreign currency, as well as the redeployment of funds out of the major international banking systems and into others where the reach of international sanctions is less keenly felt.

The Syrian banking system was one of the smallest in the Middle East even before the civil war. Assets of $47.7bn at the end of 2010 represented 2.1% of the assets of commercial banks in the Arab Middle East. Private sector deposits of $23.5bn represented about 2.2%. This was a little more than Oman and Tunisia. Private sector credit was equivalent to 23% of Gross Domestic Product – a very low figure in a region where banks dominate financial intermediation.

Non-Performing Loans Double or Treble

Income and net profit figures of the 12 listed banks have been fluctuating wildly as a result of revaluations of assets and as a result of loan loss provisioning. All 12 of the listed banks reported a doubling of non-performing loans (NPLs) in 2012 and in some cases a trebling or even quadrupling. Eight banks showed NPLs as more than 20% of their total loan portfolio.

Three of the 12 listed banks declared net losses for 2012 but income statements carry little meaning in the current Syrian environment. Quite apart from the exchange rate, which can turn revenue streams into losses, or vice versa, from one reporting period to another, the physical destruction of a client’s businesses can render loans which were performing yesterday uncollectable today.

(Although the exchange rate has depreciated considerably during the last two years, it is interesting to note that the unofficial rate shows big fluctuations and at times can show significant appreciation as well as depreciation. The collapse of a country’s exchange rate during a time of civil war cannot be assumed. For example, the Lebanese pound remained around $1=LL3 for the first seven years of the Lebanese civil war and only started to slide after the Israeli invasion of 1982, with the really big devaluations happening in the late 1980s and early 1990s. As any seasoned Lebanese banker will tell you, militias expect to be paid in cash, and usually in dollars, so civil wars bring a lot of foreign currency into a country, regardless of whether the official sector is running low on its own foreign reserves.)

The State-Owned Banks Dominate the Banking System

The 12 listed banks account for about a quarter of banking assets and liabilities in Syria. The state-owned banks dominate the system but their financial statements for recent years are not available.

The Central Bank of Syria’s public disclosure of aggregate banking statistics peters out in early 2011. Statistics for year-end 2010 show aggregated assets for the 20 banks at $47.7bn (converting the Central Bank’s Syrian pound figures into dollars at a rate of $1=S£45.79). State banks account for 71% of this. Note that not all private sector banks are listed on the DSE – Cham Bank and al-Baraka Syria are not.

Overview of Syrian Commercial Banks

Overview of Syrian Commercial Banks (click image to view full-resolution)

 

Physical Safety and Hard Cash Are Crucial for Banking Activity to Continue

Looking ahead, the most obvious threats to the continuation of banking services in Syria are physical – the destruction of bank branches or security threats that prevent banks restocking their ATMs or prevent their staff from going to work. (In mid-June, the website of Arab Bank Syria announced that banking services had been discontinued at eight of its branches (out of 19), most of them in the south western corner of Syria, near the Lebanese border.)

The availability of physical cash in government-controlled areas will be another challenge for the banks. Much will depend on the willingness of the regime’s foreign backers to facilitate the printing of local-currency bank notes and the provision of foreign currency notes. (It is assumed that rebel-held areas will continue to receive cash dollars from their foreign benefactors).

The state-owned banks will continue to support local industries, providing loans and not calling-in bad debts. They will be able to do this because the Central Bank of Syria will not enforce its own regulations. And because state-owned banks account for such a large part of the banking system, a significant part of the economy will be able to continue to operate as if all is well and everyone is paying everyone else on time. Again, it is when banking gets “physical” – for example, when wages have to be paid in cash, or foreigners paid in Dollars or Euros – that problems arise. If confidence in the regime declines, then, in regime-controlled areas, cash will become even more important than it is now.

When the Fighting is Over

What will the Syrian banking system look like when the fighting stops? The obvious answer is that it will depend on how long the fighting continues and who emerges as the victor.

And to some extent, that obvious answer is the correct one.

If the rebels overthrow the Asad regime, fighting their way to Damascus, the destruction to the country’s infrastructure will be huge. Regime figures who have been managing the financial system in recent years will either flee or be removed, and physical assets will be looted, either by the departing regime or by uncontrolled elements of the victorious forces.

In the final days of Saddam Husain’s rule in Iraq, the Central Bank of Iraq was emptied of millions of dollars by regime figures preparing for a last stand or a future fight back.

If the Asad government prevails and regains control of its territory, then destruction in the regions outside Damascus will be considerable, but the Damascene key infrastructure, both physical and professional, will probably be in reasonable shape.

Yet whoever controls Damascus in the years ahead will inherit a banking system dominated by decrepit state-owned institutions that have been managed by public servants with little appreciation of modern banking.

Any country’s banking system reflects the broader economy in which it operates, and there has been little real change in the structure of the Syrian economy and the relationships within it for decades. (The rise of private sector businessmen and industries is a chimera – their success has been reliant on regime patronage.)

The so-called “reform” of Syrian banking in recent years has combined the granting of new banking licenses to private sector interests and foreign banks with the acquisition of shares in many of those banks by cronies of the regime. The process has brought new skills and technology into the system.

Six of Syria’s 20 banks now have Lebanese banks among their major shareholders. Jordanian banks are the largest shareholders in another three, and Qatari investors in another two.

Lebanese banks in particular stand to gain once the fighting stops and business resumes (and assuming sanctions are lifted). With their strong personal connections to the Syrian business community, geographical proximity, and entrepreneurial acumen, they were already building strong franchises when the Syria civil war began in 2011.

But the experience of Iraq since the overthrow of Saddam provides a cautionary tale to any who think that a change of regime will lead to quick and dramatic change in an antiquated banking system.

In Iraq, state owned banks continue to dominate the banking scene, with Rafidain and Rashid accounting for about 90% of banking assets. Reform programmes implemented by foreign advisors backed by millions of dollars achieved little over many years. The Central Bank of Iraq, focussed on upgrading its own operations and on winning the political knife fights that threatened its independence, was unable to force the two big banks to make meaningful changes to the way they conducted business.

Iraqi bankers with long experience in developed markets were discouraged from returning to Baghdad by the appalling security risks and by their inability to navigate the lethal sectarian environment that continues to pervade all areas of Iraqi life.

So what are the realistic priorities for the reconstruction and development of the Syrian banking system once the conflict ends?

Assuming that head offices and branch buildings are physically in tact, the first task will be to restore the provision of reliable electrical power and internet connections through bank networks. Without these, the process of reconciling branch accounts into a consolidated ledger – and managing the bank’s liquidity position — is delayed and dependent on couriers.

Then the focus should move to the Central Bank. An authoritative and competent Central Bank is the key to upgrading a banking system because only the Central Bank can force commercial banks to take the difficult decisions that are needed to modernise their operations.

Thirdly, the loan portfolios of state-owned banks will have to be realistically re-valued and restructured, and then the banks re-capitalised.

Alongside these moves, a modern electronic payments system needs to be introduced.

But most important of all, and most difficult, will be the need to bring competent and motivated senior staff into the state-owned banks, and to modernise and enforce the laws and regulations that underpin financial activity. The timetable for doing that kind of change is more likely to be measured in decades than in years.

The Lebanese Example

Lebanon provides a case study of a banking system which was able to quickly regain its footing and then move forward after a devastating civil war. In Lebanon’s case, the war lasted fifteen years, entailed considerable physical destruction (though not on the scale being seen in Syria) and saw large-scale displacement of population.

Yet when rating Lebanese banks for Moody’s just a few years after the war had ended and stable government established, I saw institutions that were well managed, entrepreneurial, profitable and solvent.

Before the war, Lebanese banks had been privately owned and they were managed by businessmen and financiers determined to make money. True, regulation was light, scandals occurred, and corruption widespread in the economy, but it was a dynamic environment always with an eye on the future.

Bank shareholders worked hard to protect their banks during the war, and when peace returned, the system benefitted from the return of thousands of young Lebanese who had spent the war years in London, Paris or the U.S. earning university degrees and developing a taste for high standards and good living.

Then there is the Central Bank. Supposedly the only institution not to be targeted during 15 years of war, but certainly one that retained its reputation and integrity, Lebanon’s Central Bank has taken a lead in setting high standards and requiring compliance with international regulations.

Andrew Cunningham has spent over 25 years writing, training and consulting on banking and finance, both in the Middle East and in Europe and the U.S. He can be contacted at: www.darienmiddleeast.com

 

A response from Syria Comment’s Ehsani to Mr. Cunningham’s article:

Mr. Cunningham does an excellent job of deconstructing the Syrian Banking system. As his article states: “The physical destruction of a client’s businesses can render loans which were performing yesterday uncollectable today.”

It is indeed the case that most banks appear to be severely under provisioned. Before banks write off a loan, they tend take provision charges. Such provisions are done with consent of the clients (borrowers). Some have claimed that the provisions are understated by a factor of at least 1 to 4. Without adequate and accurate provisioning, recorded interest income is overstated.

It would not be a stretch to argue that the Syrian Banking system is perhaps technically insolvent. Once the provisions are raised by four times and interest income takes a significant hit, the current capital of the banks may fall short of the total hit emanating from the credit losses.

 

A new article from Mohsin Khan and Faysal Itani available at the Atlantic Council explores the economic impact of the crisis:

The Economic Collapse of Syria

Faysal Itani Mohsin KhanThe violent civil war in Syria that began with the uprising in March 2011 has already imposed tremendous costs on the Syrian population. More than 100,000 people have died and millions have become refugees in Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon, in addition to the internally displaced in Syria itself.  Naturally, the focus of the international community has been on the human suffering and costs that the war has caused. What has taken a back seat is the cost of the fighting on the economy. This may not be of immediate concern to outsiders, but it is something members of the international community, both those that favor the present regime of President Bashar al-Assad and those that do not, should keep in the back of their minds. The Syrian economy is in total disarray and will eventually have to be resurrected when the fighting is over. The Syrian government is in a state of denial and Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi is reported to have said that the economy is “strong and balanced,” a view that is at total variance with the facts.

While very little is known about precisely what shape the Syrian economy is in, available indicators point to a virtually complete collapse of output, trade, and finance. Once the war ends the international community will have to deal with the consequences of the fighting that has destroyed a large portion of the country’s capital stock and productive capacity. Aside from the need to stabilize the economy, reconstruction will require substantial external financing as the costs of rebuilding the Syrian economy will be huge.

Economic developments prior to the uprising

Syria’s macroeconomic indicators in the decade before the uprising were relatively sound. During 2000-2010, the country’s growth rate averaged 4.3 percent per year, about a percentage point below the average growth experienced by the MENA region. Inflation was kept in check at less than 5 percent and only once during those years did it hit double-digits. In 2008, the sharp rise in commodity and oil prices led to a spike in the inflation rate to 15.2 percent, but the following year the government had brought the rate down to 2.8 percent. Overall, inflation in Syria was considerably below the rates witnessed in the MENA countries group. To a large extent this good inflation performance was the outcome of a sensible fiscal policy that maintained a relatively low fiscal deficit of under 3 percent of GDP until 2009. While the fiscal deficit jumped to nearly 5 percent of GDP in 2010, over the entire period the Syrian fiscal deficit was about one half of the average fiscal deficits of MENA oil-importing countries.

On the external front too, Syria’s performance, though not stellar, was nonetheless positive. The current account deficit, which averaged about $400 million a year (1.6 percent of GDP) during 2000-2007, started to rise steadily thereafter to reach $1.7 billion (2.9 percent of GDP) by 2010. However, capital inflows comprising mainly foreign direct investment (FDI) from other Arab countries and Europe, led to overall balance of payment surpluses and increases in the international reserves holdings of the Central Bank of Syria (CBS) that reached $18.2 billion at the end of 2010. The largely positive external picture was reflected in the relative stability of the exchange rate. The Syrian Pound (SYP) appreciated steadily against the US dollar at an average rate of 2 percent per year and at the end of 2010 reached SYP 47 to the US dollar.

While the overall macroeconomic picture was generally positive, in the years leading up to 2010 real household expenditures steadily declined, unemployment and poverty rates rose, income inequalities increased, and regional disparities in development grew larger. The economic seeds for the uprising were clearly evident in Syria, and were essentially the same as those seen in other Arab transition countries.

Furthermore, prior to the start of the civil war, Syria was undertaking a number of structural reforms to liberalize the economy to make it more market-oriented. These reforms included unifying multiple exchange rates, allowing the opening of private banks and the Damascus Stock Exchange, eliminating controls on interest rates, and raising prices of some subsidized items. Nevertheless, in 2010 the economy was still tightly regulated both internally and externally and the process of reform was designed to be very gradual.

Economic developments since the uprising

Following the uprising the economy started to deteriorate significantly, slowly in 2011 and much more rapidly in 2012. In 2011, official estimates show a decline of real GDP by 2.3 percent, although some observers question this number, arguing that the decline in the growth rate was much larger. The inflation rate stayed at about 5 percent for the year, although this was achieved by tightening price controls on basic food items and increasing subsidies to placate the population. The increase in military spending and subsidies, coupled with a decline in tax revenues, caused the fiscal deficit to nearly double to 9 percent of GDP.

However, the external balances of the country worsened quite dramatically. The current account deficit shot up to nearly $8 billion (from $1.7 billion in the previous year) and was financed largely by running down international reserves, which fell to $14 billion by the end of 2011. Undoubtedly, the decline in international reserves would have been far larger had the CBS not imposed limits on the amount of foreign currency that could be bought to $1,300 per month. Syria also received financial assistance from Iran during the year. Through a mix of selling foreign currency in the market and controls on purchases by the public, the CBS was able to maintain the exchange rate at SYP 47, or close to what it was in December 2010. This was obviously an unsustainable policy as events in 2012 and early 2013 proved.

The full damage to the economy became evident in 2012. While there are only a few reliable economic indicators on recent developments in the Syrian economy, those that are available show an economy in a high state of distress. Inflation in 2012 jumped ten-fold to over 50 percent and international reserves fell to $2 billion at the end of 2012. The current account deficit did decline to $6 billion, but that was because of the dramatic drop in foreign trade. Exports fell by 60 percent to under $5 billion and imports to $10 billion from $18 billion in the previous year.

Clearly the economy in 2012 was in freefall. As direct estimates of real GDP are unavailable, other indicators are needed to proxy the growth rate during 2012. These estimates indicate that real GDP fell by between 50-80 percent, depending on whether the fall in trade or the fall in the broad money supply are used as the indicator. By any token, this was a massive decline in the country’s output. While more than a halving of real GDP in one year is highly unusual, it is not unknown in wartime situations. For example, non-oil real GDP of Libya fell by 52 percent in 2011 when it was engaged in its civil war. As a matter of fact, Libyan total real GDP, that is including the oil sector, fell by 62 percent in that year.

The unholy combination of spiraling inflation and a rapidly shrinking economy showed up in the behavior of the exchange rate during 2012 and into the first half of 2013. In December 2012, the currency fell to SYP 60 to the US dollar, a decline in value of some 50 percent from the previous year.  In early 2013, however, it fell off the cliff. At the beginning of June 2013 the currency had fallen to SYP 170 to the US dollar, and when the United States announced that it was going to supply arms to the rebels, it really tanked. On June 17, the currency reached a low of SYP 220 to the US dollar as Syrians tried desperately to get out of the Syrian Pound and into foreign currencies. It had now become a full-fledged run on the currency and the government did not have the foreign exchange reserves to counter it.

Some foreign exchange was provided to the market by the CBS utilizing a $1 billion credit line with Iran, but this effort only slowed down the run and did not reverse it. Even Governor Adib Mayaleh of the CBS recognized that the “normal” rate for the currency was now around SYP 170 to the US dollar and that “speculation” had pushed the rate way beyond that level. The central bank would intervene to achieve the normal rate using the financing that had been provided by Iran. However, having lost $15 billion in reserves in trying to defend the rate, it is difficult to see anything but a temporary pause in the drop of the Syrian Pound by activating the Iran credit line. Furthermore, absent sustained support from Iran, a highly unlikely prospect given Iran’s own financial constraints, it is completely rational for Syrians to move out of the local currency as fast as they can.

Syria now has all the characteristics of collapsed economy with falling economic activity and trade, inflation that is likely to move into hyper-inflation as the government finances its spending through printing money, and a currency that is depreciating at a breakneck pace.

What happens next?

While the timing and outcome of the civil war in Syria is for politicians, diplomats, and political scientists to predict, there is the big question of what will need to be done to salvage the economy when it is all over. At this stage, virtually no one can say with any degree of certainty as to when and how the conflict will ultimately end. Irrespective of who emerges victorious—the rebel Syrian forces, Bashar al-Assad, or some type of national unity government—they will face the monumental task of fixing the broken economy. So what will they need to do?

In the short run, the government will have to stabilize the economy and reverse the direction in which it is currently headed. This means bringing inflation down, arresting the continuing falling output, improving the external balances, and managing the exchange rate. This is not by any means going to be an easy task, but it will need to be done. Fortunately, the recipe to stabilize an economy is well known—appropriate monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies have brought many countries back from the brink. External financing will, of course, be needed but, if the government is willing, approaching the IMF for a program is the typical choice for many countries emerging from conflict. In the Middle East, Iraq is one example of a post-conflict country going into an IMF program in 2004 to stabilize the economy.

Over the longer term, there will need to be a major emphasis on reconstruction. This is more difficult than stabilizing the economy because it will require large-scale financing to undertake the rebuilding of the capital stock and infrastructure destroyed in the war. Cost estimates of reconstruction are obviously uncertain as the war continues. However, the UN has estimated that were to be peace today, the country would need at least $80 billion to put the economy back to what it was prior to the uprising. The examples of Iraq and Libya would argue for a much higher level, possibly running into hundreds of billions of US dollars.

Unfortunately, Syria is in a worse situation than Iraq and Libya because these two countries could count on future oil revenues to support reconstruction. Syria, on the other hand, will be almost entirely dependent on the international community to assist in what will be a massive reconstruction effort involving roads, telecommunications, electricity, factories, etc. Will the international community be ready to provide such financing? Unfortunately, there is probably little or no chance it will, and particularly if Bashar al-Assad prevails and remains in Syria. There is a degree of hope if the rebel Syrian forces prevail or a national unity solution emerges. In that event, it is possible that the wealthy Gulf countries—notably Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—could provide a large share of the needed financing.

At present, naturally the focus of the world is on the fighting and the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria. Eventually, however, the international community will have to face up to the question of how to deal with Syria on the economic front. There should be some type of contingency plan to assist Syria irrespective of who wins in the end. An economically failed state would struggle to secure it own territory and population, deepen the suffering of the Syrian population, and pose a geopolitical threat to its immediate neighbors and beyond.

Mohsin Khan
 is a senior fellow in the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East focusing on the economic dimensions of transition in the Middle East and North Africa.

Faysal Itani
 is a fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East whose focus is political economy and transition in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Levant.

Comments (591)


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551. majedkhaldoun said:

Dear Dawoud
Baradei has no chance of getting any job.

A while ago Kerry asked Saudia Arabia for one month delay in arming the rebels in Syria, quoting Egypt trouble,and things are not ready yet.

There are reports suggesting US bombs all airports in Syria,this will paralyse the airforce for a week or two , infact it may destroy the airforce in Syria

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July 1st, 2013, 10:59 pm

 

552. AMEERA said:

انا برأيي انو لازم نخلي عيونا على مصر لانو يلي بيدو يصير رح يطبق على سوريا. يعني ازا ضلو الاخوان معناها بعدوا مشروع تركيا و قطر شغال ومدعوم غربيا و بالتالي الدعم لمجلس الاخوان السوري او مجلس اسطنبول او الدوحة يعني سمو متل ما بدكن. بس بالايد التانية ازا حطو للاخوان صابونة و حلئولهم على الناعم معناها الخيار الاخواني فشل و فقد الدعم وبالتالي احتمال نشوف طلوع الاسلام السلفي السعودي او يفتحوا و يدعموا العلمانيين

بالنسبة لبشار الشغلة زابطة معو على الحالتين لانو العالم رح يكون مشغول بتاهيل الاخوان او غيرهم

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July 1st, 2013, 11:01 pm

 

553. don said:

OH NO! They should be beheaded!

546. dawoud said:
Mohamed El Baradei has an Iranian wife?

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July 1st, 2013, 11:04 pm

 

554. majedkhaldoun said:

Russia promised in G8 meeting that in one month they will arrange for assad to be removed by white coup,I don’t trust Russia

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July 1st, 2013, 11:44 pm

 

555. zoo said:

Maej

You are the king of fabricated stories accusing me is saying things I never said, and denying things that you said.
Your “USA destroying all Syria airports” is the dumbest idea I have heard for weeks. That’s a prediction-suggestion I will sure remember.

Please give us more of that, we need to laugh a bit.

Who cares if you don’t trust Russia?

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July 1st, 2013, 11:44 pm

 

556. zoo said:

Don

According to Majedpedia, Baradai is married with a barbaric Persian heretic

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July 1st, 2013, 11:46 pm

 

557. revenire said:

Brother Majed when will the Egyptian troops be arriving in Damascus? I want to set up a stand there selling little Morsi dolls so they will feel at home when they arrive.

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July 2nd, 2013, 12:03 am

 

558. Ghufran said:

أمين قموريه

ثورة مصر الجديدة اسقطت مقولة النظام السوري ان البديل منه هو الفوضى والارهاب والجماعات الجهادية بعدما قصف عمر التسوية برفضه الحوار حتى مع القوى الاسلامية المعتدلة بذريعة انها “طالبان” ومن شأنها ان تحوّل سوريا أفغانستان جديدة. فإذا كانت مصر المؤمنة رفضت ان تتلقى دروساً من “الاخوان” في التدين، فكيف يكون حال الاصوليين والسلفيين في سوريا حيث التنوع الديني والطائفي أكبر والانفتاح على الآخر اوسع اذا حاولوا رفض نمطهم الرجعي والتكفيري على السوريين؟ علما ان مصر هي مهد “الاخوان” ومدرستهم الاولى مع كل ما تفرع عنها من افكار جهادية او دعوية، في حين ان سوريا في هذا المجال فرع وليست اصلا. ولو تسنى لـ”الاخوان” ومشتقاتهم حكم سوريا لن يكون مصيرهم أفضل من مصير أمثالهم في مصر!
وبموجاتهم الثورية المتتالية، تمسك المصريون بسلميتها على رغم التنكيل الذي اصابهم من النظام الامني الساقط والنظام “الاخواني” الذي ورثه، ولم يراهنوا كثيرا على الخارج على رغم الاغراءات الكثيرة لجذبهم من هذه الدولة العربية او من تلك الدولة. ولعل هذه هي السقطة الأهم التي عانتها المعارضة السورية بأكثر تلاوينها ولاسيما منها تلك المقيمة في فنادق العواصم الاجنبية. فلو آمنت هذه المعارضة بقدرة شعبها – وهو أثبت فعلاً استعداده لبذل أغلى التضحيات من أجل حريته – لما أصيب هذا الشعب بهذا الجرح الكبير النازف ولما تعرضت الثورة للشوائب الاخلاقية ولظل التعاطف العربي والدولي الكبير معها مثلما يحصل اليوم مع شعب مصر. كذلك فإن ارتماء بعض قادة المعارضة السورية في احضان الخارج لم ينقذ الشعب السوري بل عمق جرحه وزاد الدمار دمارا.
Ameen may have been right two years ago when there was a chance to change the regime peacefully but both the regime and violent rebels blew that chance, these two factions never believed in sharing power, it is either my way or the highway,the result is a destroyed and divided country with no end in sight. Syria is not Egypt and it is unfair to compare any regime, with the exception of saddam’s , with the brutal regime in Syria that created a generation of angry impoverished and oppressed section in Syria that never learned the value of compromise and peaceful change, the regime wanted a war from day one and so did Islamists and unfortunately they succeeded, it matters not who killed more Syrians and who was more violent, it takes two to make a war.

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July 2nd, 2013, 12:38 am

 

559. Ghufran said:

Morsi received a little boost from Obama but that does not mean much, Morsi’s spokesperson expressed his ” reservations” on the army warning and said that he was not ” consulted” before the army issued its warning. This is the latest since Morsi’s foreign minister resigned:
رفضت جبهة الإنقاذ الوطني التي تقود المعارضة في مصر أي حوار مع الرئيس محمد مرسي، في حين تحدثت وسائل إعلام عن استقالة وزير الخارجية محمد كامل عمرو، بينما طالب حزب النور السلفي الرئيس بالموافقة على إجراء انتخابات رئاسية مبكرة.
وقال المتحدث باسم جبهة الإنقاذ خالد داود “لن نتحدث مع مرسي لأننا لا نعتبره رئيسا شرعيا بعد الآن”.
وأضاف أن الجبهة اتفقت مساء الاثنين على أن يمثلها في أي محادثات مع الجيش منسقها العام محمد البرادعي، وتابع أن المطالب التي ستقدمها الجبهة إلى الجيش هي في الأساس استقالة مرسي وتشكيل حكومة قوية وتعيين رئيس مؤقت ترى الجبهة أن يكون رئيس المحكمة الدستورية العليا.
من جهته طالب حزب النور السلفي الرئيس محمد مرسي بالموافقة على إجراء انتخابات رئاسية مبكرة، ودعا إلى “إعلان موعد للانتخابات”، وتشكيل حكومة من الخبراء.
وقال بيان باسم الدعوة السلفية وحزب النور صدر الاثنين “رغم دعمنا للشرعية إلا أنه لا بد أن تراعي الشرعية مصالح البلاد وتراعي خطورة الدماء”، كما طالب بتشكيل لجنة لبحث اقتراحات لتعديل الدستور.

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July 2nd, 2013, 12:57 am

 

560. omen said:

558. it takes two to make a war.

the nazis were justified in overkill because a little boy drew graffiti on a wall? hamza al khateeb didn’t know how to compromise? come on, ghufran. no excuse justifies this level of brutality.

the brutal regime in Syria that created a generation of angry impoverished and oppressed section in Syria that never learned the value of compromise and peaceful change,

history clearly shows this is not true. hama massacre happened in 1982. there was no retaliation in the aftermath. rifaat is still alive & kicking, living large in europe. uprising didn’t spring up again until 29 years later. what happened in between hama and now? there was no peace? there was no compromise?

i’m always reading about rebels reaching out to tribal elders of minority communities in attempt to reach accords. no compromise?

it matters not who killed more Syrians

yes, it does.

and who was more violent,

yes, it does.

it takes two to make a war.

the regime was, is & always will be the aggressor. you cannot fault the opposition for being forced to defend themselves. you’d do the same if some thug broke down the door and attacked your house. you cannot fault people for refusing to lay down and die quietly.

you can summarize all your posts down to this: keep blaming the victim.

why do you do that?

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July 2nd, 2013, 1:14 am

 

561. don said:

A “coup with two days’ notice” hahahahahahaha!

Egypt on brink as army gives Morsi ultimatum

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/africa/egypt-on-brink-as-army-gives-morsi-ultimatum-29387574.html

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was left reeling last night after the army pledged to intervene in the country’s political crisis in 48 hours if the government it leads could not reach a compromise with opposition forces filling the capital’s streets.

The unprecedented step, described by government opponents as a “coup with two days’ notice”, left the Islamist organisation looking beaten and outnumbered just a year after it won election.

“The armed forces repeat their call to respond to the people’s demands, and give everyone 48 hours as a last chance to fulfil the burden of historical circumstance,” the statement, signed by Gen Abdulfatah al-Sisi, the minister of defence and head of the armed forces, said.

“If the demands of the people are not met within this period, it will be incumbent upon us to announce a road map for the future and oversee measures to implement it.”

Earlier, some protesters had turned their attention to the Brotherhood headquarters in the new development of Moqattam on the edge of Cairo.

The police had refused to defend the property, and in the clashes that ensued gunshots were exchanged. Eight people, all protesters, were killed.

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/africa/egypt-on-brink-as-army-gives-morsi-ultimatum-29387574.html

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July 2nd, 2013, 1:15 am

 

562. don said:

Catholic priest executed in Syria monastery attack

A Syrian Catholic priest has been publicly executed by rebels at a monastery in the northern Syria, the Vatican says.

Father Francois Murad, 49, was beheaded on 23 June when militants attacked the convent where he was staying.

The Vatican news agency said the circumstances of the killing were not fully clear.

But local sources said the attackers were linked to the jihadist group known as al-Nusra Front.

Unconfirmed video footage claiming to show the priest’s death, together with that of two other unidentified people, has been posted on Catholic websites.

Father Murad had moved to the convent in the area of Gassanieh for safety reasons, the Vatican said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23138679

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July 2nd, 2013, 1:33 am

 

563. don said:

Congrats President Nobel: Obama Allies Behead Catholic Priest In Syria

Obama’s war on the Christian religion, particularly the Catholic variety, has claimed another casualty in the Middle East. The Vatican confirmed that “Syrian priest François Murad was killed in Gassanieh, in northern Syria, in the convent of the Custody of the Holy Land where he had taken refuge.… According to local sources, the monastery where Fr. Murad was staying was attacked by militants linked to the jihadi group Jabhat al-Nusra.”

A graphic video of unknown origin- linked below- shows a crowd of Islamic militants gathered in a circle around three men kneeling on the ground. Many of the onlookers were shooting video of the scene from cell phones and other devices.

Each of the kneeling men, in turn, is forced to the ground and their head is sawed off with a butcher knife.

Thanks President Nobel for helping him out, although, I’m not sure Father Murad really needed your assistance.

So why exactly are we arming Islamic extremists across the Middle East?

Explain to me just how spreading arms and radical ideas even further into the region are in the best interest of the United States and its allies.

http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/johnransom/2013/07/01/congrats-president-nobel-obama-allies-behead-catholic-priest-in-syria-n1631285

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July 2nd, 2013, 1:41 am

 

564. ghufran said:

Regardless whether rebels simply responded to regime atrocities when they had no other choice or that many of them actually wanted war from day one, which is my opinion, the use of violence did not help Syria, the “revolution” or the very people rebels revolted to “defend”, if the regime wanted this uprising to get militarized as opposition spoke persons claim the rebels certainly made the regime’s job much easier, saying that this simple logic is like “blaming the victim” may provide an easy exit from the most critical question about what went wrong but it hardly tells the truth about how complex and evil this war is.
I find it hypocritical that the same people who justified Israel’s bombing of Palestinian civilian targets are unable to “understand” that the easiest way to draw fire is to .. fire.
the discrepancy in the level of destruction caused by Islamist rebels and the Syrian regime is not because one is more merciful than the other, it is simply due to lack of resources not the lack of intent. Rebels did not miss any opportunity to show brutality when they were able to and now they want more lethal weapons to inflict more damage, the whole argument about how nice one thug is compared to the other thug does not hold water, the real victims in this war are the civilians who have no friends and when they run away they are forced to sell their daughters to filthy sheikhs who never cared about them, as fellow Muslims, in the first place, if one party in this war was holy this war would have ended a long time ago.
you have a lot to learn, my friends !!

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July 2nd, 2013, 1:50 am

 

565. don said:

Syria crisis: Sharia law spreading in rebel-held areas

Mohammed Qataa’s mother tried to stop armed men shooting her son

The murder of a boy accused of blasphemy has come to symbolise concerns about the power of Islamist radicals in Syria’s armed uprising. Paul Wood reports from Aleppo on how Sharia law is spreading in rebel-held areas.

Mohammed Qataa’s mother wanders the streets of Aleppo looking into strangers’ faces as she tries to find her son’s killers.

She knows she would recognize them. She was looking right at them when, in front of a dumbstruck and terrified crowd, Mohammed was shot dead, accused of blasphemy.

She remembers Mohammed as a happy, dutiful son, well known and well liked in the Shaar neighbourhood where the men of the family scrape a living with a coffee cart.

He was 14 years old, but with no schooling possible because of the war he was usually to be found on the busy main thoroughfare through Shaar, selling the thick, sweet coffee they prefer here.

One day last month, someone asked him for a free cup. “Not even if the Prophet himself returns,” he had replied, laughing. That remark was a death sentence.

It was overheard by three armed men. They dragged him to a car and took him away. Half-an-hour later, a badly beaten Mohammed was dumped back in the road by his cart.

The men, showing no fear that anyone would question what they were doing, summoned a crowd with shouts of “Oh People of Aleppo. Oh people of Shaar.” Their bellows alerted Mohammed’s mother.

Recalling what happened next, she buries her face in her hands and weeps.

“One of them shouted: ‘Whoever insults the Prophet will be killed according to Sharia’,” she told me.

“I ran down barefoot to the streets. I heard the first shot. I fell to the ground when I got there.

“One of them shot him again and kicked him. He shot him for a third time and stamped on him.

“I said: ‘Why are you killing him? He’s still a child!’ The man shouted: ‘He is not a Muslim – leave!’”

After the murder on 10 June, pictures of Mohammed’s body went viral on Facebook and Twitter in Arabic.

He had been shot in the face, a hole where his nose and mouth should have been.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23139784

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July 2nd, 2013, 1:57 am

 

566. don said:

Jordan Monarchy Threatened as Chaos Flows Across Mideast Borders

Some Jordanian militants who’ve joined the fight to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are coming home in body bags. Those who return alive, possibly burning with Islamic fervor, concern officials there, in Israel and in the U.S., who worry that the Western ally on Israel’s longest and quietest border could be the next Arab nation to implode.

The specter of militant Islam isn’t the Hashemite Kingdom’s only challenge. King Abdullah faces a faltering economy, tribal tensions, anger over the pace of political reform, the spillover of Syrian violence, as well as the estimated half-million Syrian refugees who are straining the country’s scant resources and its political balance.

“The Jordanian government is terrified,” said Robert Blecher, the Arab-Israeli Project Director for the International Crisis Group, a New York policy group. “What’s happening to the north is fundamentally changing the nature of the country. This is an existential challenge.”

“All the elements are in place for a crisis,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, a Washington policy group.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-01/jordan-monarchy-threatened-as-chaos-flows-across-mideast-borders

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July 2nd, 2013, 2:08 am

 

567. Badr said:

A Map of Non-Violent Activism in Syria

By Kristyan Benedict
Amnesty International UK

For Omar, the main objective of creating this map is to show the Syrian people and the rest of the world how powerful and widespread non-violence is within the Syrian uprising. He wanted to document the hundreds of activities involving tens of thousands of people to show a wider perspective of the revolutionary mosaic. This in turn would help challenge the narrative that all those opposed to the regime are “terrorists”.
. . .
Omar and the SNVM plan to keep updating the map every fortnight. It is an excellent work in progress – regime apologists or indeed anybody that justifies human rights abuses, hate this sort of thing which makes the experience of navigating this map so much sweeter.

So check it out, especially those who think those opposed to the regime’s crimes against humanity are medieval barbarians only looking to munch your heart out.

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July 2nd, 2013, 3:57 am

 

568. SANDRO LOEWE said:

Assad must die soon before more innocents people die like the franciscan catholic monk in Ghassanieh.

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July 2nd, 2013, 4:55 am

 

569. Citizen said:

The Causes of the Syrian Conflict

There is nothing unique about the Syrian conflict. It is a stage in the ambitious plan Washington and its minions have to control the entire Islamic world. We might refer to it as a plan for a “New Middle East” or a “New Caliphate,” or whatever we like. Islamist organizations controlled by the White House have and will continue to have a special role in this project. These organizations are international by their nature.

By concentrating control of the Islamists in its hands, Washington is also using them to concentrate power over the entire Middle East. That provides a very cheap, direct and effective scheme for controlling the region’s resources. Under this scheme of “centralized democracy,” Washington doesn’t have to negotiate with each individual sheikh. It only needs to give orders to the “caliphate’s” single Islamist leadership.

People like Erdoğan are unnecessary, harmful and dangerous in the context of these plans. Erdoğan obviously is a real leader who is guided by national interests; therefore, he “must go.”

Because the “New Middle East” is to be founded on Islam, there should be no problems with material demands by the natives As we know, religious organizations are strict about recommending that their followers think less about material things and more about spiritual. It is particularly hard to ignore the recommendations of Muslim religious communities — they tend to stone people.

In the Arab Spring alone, the financial oligarchy of the West “earned” hundreds of billions of dollars by “freezing” the accounts of the regimes that were toppled in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, etc. It is frightening to imagine how much could they “earn” from the uncontrolled exploitation of the “Caliphate’s” resources. In that respect, the oil that the Middle East produces in abundance is of particular importance.

Let’s talk about some of that viscous black fluid’s properties.

The fact is that petroleum products, unlike natural gas, require the construction of complex engineering services, and petroleum products are used in every country in the world regardless of their climate, how well their people are educated, or the level of development of their economies. Oil is a universal means of exchange across the entire world. That is its chief significance. The US dollar is a worldwide currency put out by just one purely private shop — the Federal Reserve. The US dollar and oil should be directly linked, and they are.

If the Federal Reserve doesn’t want its paper to lose liquidity and intends that it continue being used strictly as a world currency, it needs for the United States to control oil production across the world, and not just oil production, but the buying and selling of oil, as well. Therefore, Washington is convinced that any leader who doubts the advisability of trading oil in dollars needs to be punished……….
http://journal-neo.org/2013/07/01/rus-o-prichinah-sirijskogo-konflikta-chast-2/

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July 2nd, 2013, 6:31 am

 

570. Citizen said:

TEL AVIV – Intelligence provided by China was utilized by Syria’s air force to bomb a Western weapons shipment on its way to arm the Syrian rebels, according to informed Middle Eastern security officials.

The officials said the air strike was carried out Saturday just as the weapons convoy entered Syrian territory from neighboring Jordan.

Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/07/syria-used-chinese-intel-to-bomb-u-s-arms-shipment/#vFw4G0QO3KqEAgfO.99

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July 2nd, 2013, 6:34 am

 
 

572. Syrian Atheist Against Dictatorships said:

Ban Ki Mun is not “worried” about this? He should be ashamed.
From Radio Free Syria:
02-07-2013: As the United Nations continues to work closely with the Assad regime within Syria, the people in liberated areas of the country continue to be purposefully starved by a regime siege. In some parts of Syria, including Homs, regime troops have prevented supplies of food, medicine or any other essential goods from entering these areas for over a year, while food crops and storage silos are destroyed by regime bombardment.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian aid supplies given by UN bodies to feed these people are instead distributed by the regime to regime-controlled areas of the country not experiencing any siege or shortages, where these supplies – like this cooking oil (in photo) still clearly labelled as UN humanitarian aid supplies – is then sold at a profit. The UN is fully aware of this, but does nothing to stop it, effectively colluding with the regime in starving millions of Syrian people.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=478668468885032&set=a.382885705129976.91927.363889943696219&type=1&theater

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July 2nd, 2013, 7:26 am

 

573. majedkhaldoun said:

Revenir and Zoo
Both of you, you lie and twist comments and believe your lies, when I say I don’t expect,you change this to mean I predict,this showed how twisted your minds are.

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July 2nd, 2013, 7:53 am

 

574. Observer said:

So if Baradei cannot be neutral for his wife is Iranian I guess the same applies to JL whose wife is Alawi, right? Hogwash as if all Iranians or all Alawis are by definition pro Freddo Corleone retard iPad rethithtanthe prethident with his pseudo modern shopping freak companion.

Messengers here have called for carpet bombing and chemical gas attacks and asserted that there are no “civilians” killed in Thouria Alathad and have completely dehumanized the revolution so as to permit war crimes against humanity to be perpetrated against it.

The messengers keep pointing out to the infinitely more civilized and true revolutions around them as proof that their opponents in Egypt and Turkey are evil when they are sitting on a pile of excrement on top of a garbage dump called Thouria Alathad.

I guess the olfactory nerve gets habituated quickly and stops smelling its own stench.

You are right Syrian Hamster there is not an ounce of honesty or decency or even morality in most of the regime messengers.

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July 2nd, 2013, 7:55 am

 

575. majedkhaldoun said:

The nonsense we hear from Revenir,Zoo and Ghufran has no limits
Observer and Hamster are right ” there is not an ounce of honesty or decency or even morality in most of the regime messengers”

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July 2nd, 2013, 8:07 am

 

576. don said:

The Morsi regime and his backward Islamist Muslim Brotherhood lost their legitimacy and needs to step down. TICK TICK TICK TICK

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July 2nd, 2013, 8:42 am

 

577. don said:

The map provided by the Guardian shows Iran, Jordan, Pakistan and Egypt are the countries most subjected to U.S. intelligence surveillance.

http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20130702/104551.shtml

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July 2nd, 2013, 8:53 am

 

578. revenire said:

Majed your problem is the fantasy land you live in. For example:

“554. MAJEDKHALDOUN said:
Russia promised in G8 meeting that in one month they will arrange for assad to be removed by white coup,I don’t trust Russia”

Russia never said any such thing. It is ridiculous and bizarre of you to even mention it and it makes you look bad.

You don’t like the absurdities you utter pointed out. I wouldn’t either.

Last week you said millions of Egyptians would be coming to fight Syria.

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July 2nd, 2013, 8:57 am

 

579. Akbar Palace said:

Don’s “legitimacy” metric

576. don said:

The Morsi regime and his backward Islamist Muslim Brotherhood lost their legitimacy and needs to step down. TICK TICK TICK TICK

Don,

Perhaps. But at least they don’t have 100,000 dead on their watch.

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July 2nd, 2013, 9:14 am

 

580. majedkhaldoun said:

Revenir
What I said ,Egypt has THE POTENTIAL to recruit million,you changed my words, There are more than 10 million egyptians who suppoert Islam strongly,

What Russia promised US in G8 meeting you deny,but I will get you the report in next comment

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July 2nd, 2013, 9:17 am

 

581. SYRIAN HAMSTER said:

Hamster speaking of book lickers where would your terrorists be without Turkey?

Book Lickers…. hahaha Not a chance. other than genocide for dummies d-p athad boot lickers and the likes,, most books will shiver and wither at the touch of knowledge haters like regime propagandists

boot-lickers , on the other hand, is the highest honor worthy of immoral, war-crime advocates regime propagandist can attain. Again, i was too generous with reevee and its cohort.

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July 2nd, 2013, 9:20 am

 

582. majedkhaldoun said:

انقلاب داخلي بإشراف روسي / غازي دحمان
2013-06-30 — 21/8/1434
——————————————————————————–

المختصر/ على عكس ما أشاعته وسائل الإعلام، من مناخ محبط، وما صورته من فشل، في محادثات الثمانية الكبار، فثمة ما يشير إلى أن القمة انتهت إلى مقاربة جديدة للأزمة السورية، ترتكز على عنصرين رئيسيين: ضمان مصالح مختلف الأطراف، والقدرة على تطبيق مندرجات الاتفاق على أرض الواقع من دون أية أوهام
.
الموقف الروسي، من الأزمة السورية، تزحزح أخيراً، صحيح أنه لم يصل إلى الحد الذي تطالب به دول الغرب، من مطالبة صريحة بانتقال الحكم وعزل بشار الأسد، إلا أن الروس أقدموا في قمة الدول الثماني الكبرى على اجتراح يمكن وصفه بالمعجزة، بالنظر للتعقيدات التي كانوا يضعونها في السابق بوجه أي محاولة لحل الأزمة السورية
.
أعطونا وقتا حتى شهر أغسطس/آب، واضمنوا لنا بقاء مؤسستي الجيش والأمن في أي ترتيب مستقبلي، وعدم الإشارة إلى مصير بشار الأسد في هذه المرحلة، وعلى المعارضة والجيش الحر التعهد بمحاربة التطرف “والقاعدة” في سوريا، إضافة إلى إرضاء إيران من خلال الموافقة على مشاركتها بمؤتمر جنيف المنوي عقده
.
تلك كانت خلاصة الموقف الروسي الجديد في إيرلندا، وكل هذه التفاصيل كانت واضحة وعلنية، ولا تحتمل الكثير من التأويلات ولا الاجتهادات.
لم يدع رئيس الوزراء الكندي ستيفن هاربر، المجال لاحتمال تأويل نتائج مباحثات السبعة الكبار مع روسيا، بل إنه ذهب إلى فضح ما حاولت الأطراف إخفاءه، بطلب من روسيا، فاعتبر أن البيان يمثل تحولاً حقيقياً في موقف روسيا، مضيفاً “لدينا نتيجة مختلفة تماماً ونتيجة أفضل كثيراً مما ظننت أننا سنحققه، أعتقد أن ذلك كان تحركاً مهماً جداً من جانب السيد بوتين والروس”. وكان هاربر نفسه قد قال قبل القمة إنه يخشى أن يكون الاتفاق في مجموعة الثماني صعباً بسبب دعم بوتين لسوريا.
ربما هذا الكلام هو ما دفع وزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف إلى إضافة ملحق إعلامي ونفسي للاتفاق الروسي الغربي، عندما أكد أن الأمر لا يعني “استسلام” نظام الرئيس بشار الأسد، فيما بدا أنه نوع من الطمأنة المقصودة ورسالة مرسلة إلى جهات معينة وأطراف بعينها داخل أطر النظام وفي بيئة النظام الاجتماعية نفسها
.
وبحسب مؤشرات عديدة، فإن روسيا والغرب توافقا على أن يكون المخرج للأزمة السورية بإخراج بشار الأسد من السلطة، والاتفاق على حكومة انتقالية تضم أطرافاً من المعارضة والنظام بقدر متساو، على أن يتم ضمان بقاء المؤسسات والحفاظ على هيكلتها وفاعليتها في المرحلة التي تعقب انتقال السلطة، وخاصة مؤسسات الجيش والأمن، التي ينضوي في إطارها عدد كبير من العلويين، ما يشكل ضمانة للبيئة المؤيدة بعدم تعرضها لأي تصرفات انتقامية في المرحلة المقبلة، كما يضمن لروسيا وجود علوي مؤثر في أي سلطة قادمة في سوريا، باعتبار العلويين يشكلون ضمانة روسيا الوحيدة في سوريا المستقبلية
.

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July 2nd, 2013, 9:20 am

 

583. majedkhaldoun said:

Revenir
The rest of the articleالورقة الثانية، وهي الأهم والأكثر تأثيرا، تلويح الغرب بالتخطيط لانقلاب عسكري في سوريا، وهذا يعني أيضاً أن أجهزة الغرب الاستخباراتية قد توصلت أخيراً إلى اختراق النطاق الصلب في النظام، أو ما يسمى الدائرة المحيطة ببشار الأسد، وذهبت تقارير صحفية بهذا الخصوص إلى حد التأكيد بأن قادة مجموعة الثماني اتفقوا خلال قمّتهم على الدور المهم الذي يمكن أن يلعبه أعوان الأسد في إعادة بناء سوريا، وأنهم وعدوا كبار الشخصيات في أجهزة الأمن السورية بالنجاة في حال رحيل الرئيس بشار الأسد، بل إن ديفد كاميرون -رئيس الوزراء البريطاني- ذهب أبعد من ذلك حين قال “إن قادة مجموعة الثماني يريدون إقناع الموالين للأسد، الذين يعلمون في داخلهم أنه راحل، وبأن سوريا لن تسقط في مستنقع الفوضى من دون الرئيس السوري
“.
خلاصة نتائج قمة الثماني، إلزام روسيا بإحداث عملية، التغيير السياسي، أو الانقلاب على بشار الأسد، أو تهيئة نافذة لخروجه من المأزق، وإخراج سوريا والمنطقة من أتون النار الذي باتت تقف على شفيره، والزمن هذه المرة محدود، لا يتعدى شهر أغسطس/آب، وذلك بالتزامن مع استمرار الأطراف الإقليمية والغربية بالعمل على استكمال تحضيراتها اللوجستية وتثمير الخيارات البديلة.

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July 2nd, 2013, 9:26 am

 

584. majedkhaldoun said:

Revenir
Now who is uttering absurdity, it is obviously you

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July 2nd, 2013, 9:35 am

 

585. don said:

579. Akbar Palace said: Don’s “legitimacy” metric
______________________

Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some cheap mossad “Sailor wanna hump-hump” bar, or is it racist day at Avigdor Lieberman and your last shot at his whiskey? Go sell your naive prepubescent Israeli propaganda someplace else, we’re all stocked up on this blog.

You’re a disgrace to propaganda. Now, go play in your sand box and never, never interrupt me or address me again. Do you get me, sweetheart?

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July 2nd, 2013, 10:16 am

 

586. revenire said:

“There are more than 10 million egyptians who suppoert Islam strongly.”

What does the number of Egyptians who support Islam have to do with the war on Syria?

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July 2nd, 2013, 11:06 am

 

587. majedkhaldoun said:

Revenir
Over 13 million voted for Mursi, so the potential for one million egyptian to support Syrian is not exageration

Did you not get google translation since you are not syrian and do not understand Arabic.
There are no limits to your nonsense

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July 2nd, 2013, 11:26 am

 

588. Akbar Palace said:

Majedkhaldoun,

Yes, but Assad got over 97% of the vote. So there!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bashar_al-Assad

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July 2nd, 2013, 12:18 pm

 

589. majedkhaldoun said:

Akbar palace
yes that is why we have 200,000 dead, 5 million refugee inside and 1 1/2 million refugee outside ,and still have 200,000 fighting Assad, he will not get 20% in free election.
Syria, has three choices
1- civil war,the majority will win.
2- division.
3- political settlement according to big power countries

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July 2nd, 2013, 12:35 pm

 

590. Akbar Palace said:

Majedkhaldoun,

Glad you are safe here in the US. I can’t imagine.

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July 2nd, 2013, 12:41 pm

 

591. Ziad said:

Excellent article detailing the background of the events in Egypt

Sectarianism and Counter-Revolution in Egypt: Not a Family Affair

http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/12581/sectarianism-and-counter-revolution-in-egypt_not-a

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July 2nd, 2013, 10:58 pm

 

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