“The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013,” by Joshua Landis in MEP

We are pleased to offer members of the press a preview of an article by Joshua Landis from the upcoming Spring 2012 journal Middle East Policy titled “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013.” Click here to read the full article.

Dr. Landis (University of Oklahoma, Center for Middle East Studies & Editor, Syria Comment) believes that the regime’s chances for survival to 2013 are stronger than many think, for four reasons:

1. Asad remains strong militarily.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, who left the military in the hands of non-family members, the Asads have taken extreme “sectarian safety measures,” staffing the security forces and broader government with loyal Alawis. Some estimates suggest that as many as 80% of Syria’s officer corps are Alawi.

2. The opposition is weak.
Reports that the political Syrian National Council has gained control over the Free Syrian Army are by most accounts fictional. Whether peaceful or armed, the opposition cells in Syria work independently.

3. The international community is unlikely to intervene.
Syria remains in the realm of “too big to fail,” and foreign powers are unlikely to intervene if Syrians cannot unite and build a military force capable of providing, at the very least, a credible promise of stabilizing Syria on its own.

4. The economy is problematic.
Asad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf is “Mr. Ten Percent” of the Syrian economy, having assumed a majority stake in many major enterprises and holding companies, assuring that the Asad family maintained control over the economy.

To read the entire article, click here.

Comments (109)


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101. irritated said:

#97

Are “humanitarian” corridors to Turkey, Lebanon , Jordan, Iraq necessary?

When needed, the Red Cross seems to be doing its humanitarian work of evacuating who needs help in conjunction with the Syrian government.

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February 24th, 2012, 1:27 pm

 

102. irritated said:

#100. Revlon said:

“Assad security forces has denied IRC access to baba Amr; only a team of the regime red crescent has been permitted in”

see #97…

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February 24th, 2012, 1:31 pm

 

103. Revlon said:

103 Dear Irritated,
I did!
The red cross was allowd in to evacuate the injured journalists only!
Thousands of wounded civilians shall remain off limit to Red cross!
For them, only the red crescent Shabbeeha shall be allowed in by their mates, Assad security forces!
You know better than I do how the regime handles medical teams!

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February 24th, 2012, 1:35 pm

 

104. jna said:

“The Red Cross has begun moving women and children from part of the besieged Syrian city of Homs, officials say.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17157549

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February 24th, 2012, 2:30 pm

 

105. irritated said:

Revlon

11 ambulances for 4 foreigners? Do you have new information?

The article says “11 ambulances and the evacuation of anyone in need of urgent help” #97

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February 24th, 2012, 2:32 pm

 

106. irritated said:

JNA #105

Obviously the ICRC has reached an agreement with the Syrian government without the need of the threats and ultimatum the Friends of Syria were planning to press on Syria for humanitarian reliefs.
By the way, they should forget about the ‘corridors’, it will not happen.
Once civilians are moved from Bab Amr, the armed gangs will either surrender or will be destroyed.

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February 24th, 2012, 2:38 pm

 

107. jna said:

Irritated

The Red Cross usually does not comment on the stances of the parties they negotiate with, but I wonder if and/or when the opposition agreed to the Red Crescent/Cross safe passage. I think opposition was waiting till after the “Friends” meeting outcome hoping for some foreign intervention corridors, like they proposed.

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February 24th, 2012, 2:49 pm

 
 

109. Richard Steven Hack said:

Drop over to http://www.raceforiran.com and see my post there on the issue which took apart this thesis that Assad is in no danger line by line.

The US and NATO will be bombing Syria within six months.

The purpose of this is to weaken Syria and to allow Israel to better attack Hizballah in Lebanon so as to eliminate both as viable actors in an Iran war.

See my posts on this issue over at raceforiran for the details.

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February 26th, 2012, 3:27 pm

 

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