“The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013,” by Joshua Landis in MEP

We are pleased to offer members of the press a preview of an article by Joshua Landis from the upcoming Spring 2012 journal Middle East Policy titled “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013.” Click here to read the full article.

Dr. Landis (University of Oklahoma, Center for Middle East Studies & Editor, Syria Comment) believes that the regime’s chances for survival to 2013 are stronger than many think, for four reasons:

1. Asad remains strong militarily.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, who left the military in the hands of non-family members, the Asads have taken extreme “sectarian safety measures,” staffing the security forces and broader government with loyal Alawis. Some estimates suggest that as many as 80% of Syria’s officer corps are Alawi.

2. The opposition is weak.
Reports that the political Syrian National Council has gained control over the Free Syrian Army are by most accounts fictional. Whether peaceful or armed, the opposition cells in Syria work independently.

3. The international community is unlikely to intervene.
Syria remains in the realm of “too big to fail,” and foreign powers are unlikely to intervene if Syrians cannot unite and build a military force capable of providing, at the very least, a credible promise of stabilizing Syria on its own.

4. The economy is problematic.
Asad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf is “Mr. Ten Percent” of the Syrian economy, having assumed a majority stake in many major enterprises and holding companies, assuring that the Asad family maintained control over the economy.

To read the entire article, click here.

Comments (109)


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51. Ghufran said:

The regime wants the armed groups to give away their weapons and the opposition wants guarantees that the regime will not repeat alzabadani story and arrests people right and left:
http://www.syriahr.com/24-2-2012-syrian%20observatory.htm
Here is Camille on RT:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oh2rPepEwrM

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February 23rd, 2012, 11:43 pm

 

52. jad said:

Shocking report from Homs by Channel 4, the armed gangs have nothing to do with any kind of organized army and I believe Nir was right that those gunmen don’t have any real connection with other armed militias in other places, and they can be easily infiltrated and run by Alqaeda Jihadists.
The disturbing-disgusting fact is that they are hiding between civilians and holding them hostages for their own bloody madness, while innocent civilians, children, women and men are paying the heavy price.

An immediate ceasefire is a must, the red cross must get in and help, victims must be evacuated with their beloved ones and be taken to have a proper treatment in real hospitals for HUMAN.
Civilians must be able and allowed to leave this infested areas and the regime have the responsibility to help the civilians to get out, it’s a crime against humanity to leave them alone under the rules of those criminal gangs while indiscriminately shelling them, that is the ultimate unjust to the Syrian trapped there.

I understand that no country in the whole world will tolerate the existence of armed militias running freely in its cities and towns but at the same time it’s the government/regime responsibility to help those trapped civilian and not to kill them.

I also find it irrational that any respected journalist will gamble his life and be within the hands of armed militias and under the retaliation of the national army, how suicidal is that.

Homs siege
link.brightcove.com
A French photojournalist’s shocking record of life under siege in Homs reveals horrific detail of what is happening there under the Assad regime.
http://bcove.me/gr34b793

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February 23rd, 2012, 11:59 pm

 

53. majedkhaldoun said:

King Abdullah,in his talk to Medvedev said no dialogue with Bashar,
The supreme Military council decided to form with Ryad Al As3ad a council,they decided to keep Colonel Ryad al As3ad the head of the free Syrian Army.
The friends of Syria most likely will form a committee include members of te SNC, whose job is to monitor the progress,Assad will be given 72 hour to abide, they will not talk publicly about arming the FSA with new weapons, but there will be support for this.
It will get worse before it gets better, I doubt Bashar will last till 2013

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February 24th, 2012, 12:09 am

 

54. jad said:

There is no solution to this hell in Syria but DIALOGUE and NEGOTIATION.
The freaking greedy colonial western regimes and the filthy monarchy khalijis need to stop wasting billions of dollars over sending weapons and planning wars and instead spend fraction of money to mediate for a peaceful solution that will cost them nothing, but I guess peace is not what they want, blood and destruction is their ultimate goals.

Dear Bronco,
What’s the point of sending Kofi Annan to Syria?

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February 24th, 2012, 12:16 am

 

55. bronco said:

#53
Dear Jad

I think that the most important task of Kofi Anan would be to evaluate the possibility of the dialog that the Russians and the Chinese have be hammering. While the Russians can convince Bashar to accept to sit with the opposition, the challenge for Kofi Anan would be to make the opposition accept this dialog that they have been consistently conditioned on the departure of Bashar.
Kofi Anan will not ask Bashar to step down as it will break the communication for good. In view of the wide criticisms directed to the SNC now increasingly exposed in the media, it has become a very unreliable organization that no country is willing to recognize. I think they can be brought to the dialog table by some incentive on giving them some ‘status’ that they have been begging for. The Syrian opposition political leaders in Syria will probably follow.
The second challenge is to evaluate whether the FSA would accept to be part of the dialog thus guaranteeing a cessation of the provocations on the Syrian army and a turn against the unruly armed gangs.
From that point, the situation may calm down and a political process can start.
Of course Qatar, KSA, France and the UK will try all they can to disrupt this process, but I guess Kofi Anan who has been against the Libyan war and knows the UN inside out may be able to manage.

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February 24th, 2012, 12:59 am

 
 

57. paul david said:

Landis’s article undertakes no analysis of the most important possibilities for the future of Syria. That includes the vision of the regime but forgets the basics. This is not about how long and why is able Al Assad to resists. The question is rather which likely humanitarian, social, economic and political sceneraios will shape the future of the country. Landis’s article does not provide that answer.

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February 24th, 2012, 3:52 am

 

58. PAUL DAVID said:

There’s also something left on the article: what if Russia withdraw support to Assad after Kremlin elections on 4th March? I agree that there are internal factors that suggest a long survive to the regime. But it’s not only about that. There’re external issues playing an important role and this is the real fear of the regime.

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February 24th, 2012, 6:22 am

 

59. aron said:

mjbali – You’re welcome!

_____

I’ve now read the MEPC article, and I think it was excellent, although the conclusions are obviously very depressing.

The only thing I would quibble with is that the term ‘in power’ can be a bit misleading, given the scenario sketched out by JL.

If the economic meltdown plays out as described (and there is no foreign intervention, assassination or internal coup) Assad could probably remain ‘in power’ as president almost indefinitely, way past 2013. But his and the Syrian state’s legitimacy and ability to actually govern will contract rapidly, until that presidency loses all meaning. So the ‘regime’ may stay to 2020 for all I know, but by then it will simply be Syria’s best-armed militia.

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February 24th, 2012, 6:58 am

 

60. Mina said:

http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/leading-opposition-group-pulls-out-friends-syria-meet
Published Friday, February 24, 2012

One of the main Syrian opposition groups announced on Friday it was boycotting the international “Friends of Syria” meeting in Tunis, citing concerns about Western-led military interference.

The National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria (NCB) denounced what it described as attempts to leave the door open to militarize the uprising against the regime of President Bashar Assad.
(…)
The mood of the Syrian street
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/al-baramkeh-market-political-weather-vane-syria

Josh,

I am really surprised by this sentence in your article: “The Asads stand atop the last minoritarian regime in the Levant and thus seem destined to fall in this age of popular revolt. When they do, the postcolonial era will draw to a final close. ”
How could anyone say so while watching the Gulf clowns, from Oman to Bahrein, Qatar to KSA? If the poor state of these “countries” is what it is, isn’t it because of the history of UK and US oil extraction and following deals?

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February 24th, 2012, 7:00 am

 

61. mjabali said:

In the Egyptian Public Assembly/Majlis al-Sha’b a Salafi representative curses the Shia and the Alawis.

That happened when they were discussing unemployment.

When they need to talk about real issues they run away to the threat of the Shia and Iran.

Islam is bringing the downfall of reason in Egypt, same way it is doing in Syria and have done in Iraq. Who can argue about this?

When it is time to talk about real issues they start encouraging the masses to war with Iran, the Shia and the rest of the infidels. From time to time the same people would bestow the “honor of ascending to paradise” to some lunatic who blows himself among civilians. Where is reason when you need it?

Look at what happened yesterday in Iraq: explosions sending the killers to paradise and the victims to hell. Really? Hundreds of people dead in Iraq and no one even mention that as any worthy piece of news. Human life there became cheap the same way it is now in Syria. I saw a video from Syria where the dead man is laying shot in the face while kids and adults chat casually. What type of people are you bringing up through these actions?

This is what the petrodollars and years of religious brainwash brought to Egypt and the Middle East. Remember we are in the 21st Century….

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February 24th, 2012, 7:19 am

 

62. Mina said:

You missed the one where a Salafi started the call for prayer (30 mn after the actual asr time) and was rebuked by both the MB president and by the Shaykh al Azhar. Madness…

http://forums.islamicawakening.com/f18/aftermath-azan-egyptian-parliament-shiekh-gives-fatwa-56082/

http://www.arabist.net/blog/2012/2/8/the-salafi-who-called-the-azan-in-parliament.html

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February 24th, 2012, 7:43 am

 

63. majedkhaldoun said:

I heared today the term Basharon,in reference to the supporters of Bashar, and a reminder that Sharon,of Israel,is a friend of Bashar,Israel the strongest supporters to Bashar.

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February 24th, 2012, 7:53 am

 

64. Majed97 said:

Tears of freedom and democracy, Saudi style.

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February 24th, 2012, 7:55 am

 

65. Badr said:

Jonathan Marcus
BBC News, Tunis

But in truth there are only limited options available to the Friends of Syria, who are largely looking on from the sidelines.

A likely call for an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian access depends entirely on the goodwill of the Syrian authorities – and that seems in short supply.

Tougher and more co-ordinated sanctions will take time to work. There is a growing realisation, at least in Western capitals, that the fragmented Syrian opposition is as yet nothing like a potential alternative government in waiting.

All the talk of safe havens or humanitarian corridors demanded by opposition groups founders on a simple fact; one way or another they all mean going to war with the Syrian regime. That seems out of the question. So inevitably calls for arming the Syrian opposition are likely to grow.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17144805

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February 24th, 2012, 8:18 am

 

66. Akbar Palace said:

A Little Bird Told Me NewZ

a reminder that Sharon,of Israel,is a friend of Bashar

majedkhaldoun,

Can you show proof of this “friendship”?

Israel and Syria have been in a state of war since the creation of Israel is 1948.

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February 24th, 2012, 8:24 am

 

67. Mina said:

Majed97
This guy who has a Saudi passport was extracted from Malaysia after his comments on the prophet on Twitter. How come they can’t extract Ben Ali?

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February 24th, 2012, 8:27 am

 

68. majedkhaldoun said:

Ismaeel Haneieh supported the syrian revolution,in a speech in Egypt, this is a change in Hamas position.

The regime is instigating the Shiite Sunni sedition, the revolution in Syria is for freedom and dignity,not a religious one as some try to make it look like.

Iraq did not send Zebari to the friend of Syria meeting, This will reduce the chances that the Arab summit will be held in Iraq at the level of kings and presidents.
Anti tanks and anti planes missile must reach The FSA,The only dialogue is when a balance of power is possible, FSA has to be powerful enough to establish a free area,this is the most important thing that is required from this meeting,today.in addition to give Bashar 72 hour to comply with garanteeing the delivery of food and health supply to Homs,
There is implied recognition of SNC already, it is apparant ,the evidence the presence of SNC member in the meeting.

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February 24th, 2012, 8:34 am

 

69. Mina said:

All the way since the Gaza war there is no such thing as “Hamas-position” but rather “Gaza-Hamas position” versus “Damascus-Hamas position”.

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February 24th, 2012, 8:37 am

 

70. majedkhaldoun said:

Akpar
The evidence that we in the opposition believe is
1) not even a single bullet was fired accross the border of Syria and Israel since 1967.
2) in 2006 Mr. Bush suggested to the Israeli goverment to turn toward Syria, Israel PM refused and did not involve Syria in the fight.
3) USA did not need UN SC to interfere in Iraq, and they supported the revolution against Gaddafi, and helped targeting tanks in Libya, yet US did not do anything in Syria because of Israel.
4) there are several reports from Israel that Assad is better than any future goverment in Syria,they obviously prefer Assad to stay.
5) Israel hates the Arab spring in Egypt.
While you stand against Assad the reports from Israel is the opposit

It is in Israel advantage that Assad stays in Syria, Israel is afraid of this Arab spring, and afraid that Turkey would benefit of changing the regime in Syria, as relations between Israel and Turkey deteriorate.

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February 24th, 2012, 8:52 am

 

71. Mina said:

From the Angry Arab (http://angryarab.blogspot.com/)

Friday, February 24, 2012

Flash
Clashes outside the meeting place of the “Friends of the US” conference in Tunisia.

Flash II
Many demonstrators are protesting Arab GCC countries and the US in Tunisia. The Hariri anchorwoman at Al-Arabiyyah (news station of King Fahd’s brother-in-law), Najwa Qassim, insisted that those protesters are Syrian shabbihah (armed goons). Here correspondent on the ground in Tunis had to correct her: he said that they are Tunisians and not Syrians.
Posted by As’ad AbuKhalil at 5:48 AM
Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to Facebook
Labels: English

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February 24th, 2012, 9:03 am

 

72. zoo said:

‘Friends of Syria’ to call for UN to plan mission
Associated PressBy MATTHEW LEE and PAUL SCHEMM | Associated Press – 7 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/friends-syria-call-un-plan-mission-133553165.html

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — A senior diplomat attending the Friends of Syria meeting says the group will call for the United Nations to begin planning a Syria peacekeeping mission.

The diplomat said Friday the group would endorse preparations for the U.N. to send civilian police to Syria once hostilities are over. The diplomat said the envisioned operation would occur in a permissive environment and would not be a military intervention.
{….}.

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February 24th, 2012, 9:09 am

 

73. irritated said:

#70 Zoo

“once hostilities are over”: who and how to stop the hostilities? Wasn’t this question the main reason of this meeting?
“civilian police a permissive environment”: what is that?

It sounds totally absurd or this “official’ is talking nonsense.

The only valid idea is to have UN’s Kofi Anan visit Syria to finally evaluate objectively the situation on the ground and clear up the political mess Qatar, the AL and their western friends have created.
I suspect this will be the first and last of this “Friends of Qatar” meetings.

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February 24th, 2012, 9:18 am

 

74. irritated said:

#69 Mina

Remember that many Tunisians have been vocal against Qatar’s insidious interference in funding religious groups to ensure they take over the country. .
There is also a resentment against Saudi Arabia that hosts and protect Ben Ali.
This meeting is perceived by many as a “Friends of GCC” meeting

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February 24th, 2012, 9:25 am

 

75. zoo said:

No need to arm the FSA, let Arab and Turkish armies ‘defensively’ invade and crush Syria to halt the ‘butchery’
says a pro-Israel activist.

How to Halt the Butchery in Syria
Matt Rota
By ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER
Published: February 23, 2012
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/opinion/how-to-halt-the-butchery-in-syria.html?_r=1

FOREIGN military intervention in Syria offers the best hope for curtailing a long, bloody and destabilizing civil war. The mantra of those opposed to intervention is “Syria is not Libya.” In fact, Syria is far more strategically located than Libya, and a lengthy civil war there would be much more dangerous to our interests. America has a major stake in helping Syria’s neighbors stop the killing.

Simply arming the opposition, in many ways the easiest option, would bring about exactly the scenario the world should fear most: a proxy war that would spill into Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Jordan and fracture Syria along sectarian lines. It could also allow Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups to gain a foothold in Syria and perhaps gain access to chemical and biological weapons.

There is an alternative. The Friends of Syria, some 70 countries scheduled to meet in Tunis today, should establish “no-kill zones” now to protect all Syrians regardless of creed, ethnicity or political allegiance. The Free Syrian Army, a growing force of defectors from the government’s army, would set up these no-kill zones near the Turkish, Lebanese and Jordanian borders. Each zone should be established as close to the border as possible to allow the creation of short humanitarian corridors for the Red Cross and other groups to bring food, water and medicine in and take wounded patients out. The zones would be managed by already active civilian committees.

Establishing these zones would require nations like Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to arm the opposition soldiers with anti-tank, countersniper and portable antiaircraft weapons. Special forces from countries like Qatar, Turkey and possibly Britain and France could offer tactical and strategic advice to the Free Syrian Army forces. Sending them in is logistically and politically feasible; some may be there already.
(…)

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February 24th, 2012, 9:31 am

 

76. irritated said:

Shouldn’t the French Ambassador negotiate instead with France’s “ally”, the FSA, who are responsible for the illegally entered wounded French journalists in Homs?

“France’s Syria ambassador – who was withdrawn on 7 February – returned to Damascus on Thursday evening. A foreign ministry spokesman declined to say whether this was related to efforts to get Ms Bouvier out.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17144805

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February 24th, 2012, 10:01 am

 

77. ann said:

Pro-Syrian crowd tries to storm Tunisia meeting – 56 mins ago

http://news.yahoo.com/pro-syrian-crowd-tries-storm-tunisia-meeting-141054476.html

TUNIS, Tunisia (AP) — About 200 pro-Syrian demonstrators tried to storm the hotel where a conference is being held by Arab and Western officials over the crisis in Syria.

The protest forced U.S. Secretary of States Hillary Rodham Clinton to be diverted to her hotel, delaying her appearance at the “Friends of Syria” conference.

The protesters, waving Syrian and Tunisian flags, tussled with police and carried signs criticizing Clinton and President Barack Obama.

Police wielding truncheons stopped them from entering the venue and drove them out of the parking lot after about 15 minutes.

[…]

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February 24th, 2012, 10:22 am

 

78. jad said:

Le meeting des amis de la Syrie débute dans le chaos

As if invading Syria and destroy it by the MBs councils’ ‘friends’ is not enough, Ghalyoun is going over board and informing us that when he gets power he will ‘decapitate’ Syria into pieces…the first piece to the Kurds…I wonder about the rest of Syria who will this generous man give it to?

“رويترز” عن غليون: الحكومة السورية بعد الاسد ستكون غير مركزية
الجمعة 24 شباط 2012، آخر تحديث 16:12
نقلت وكالة “رويترز” عن رئيس المجلس “الوطني السوري” برهان غليون رؤيته ان “الحكومة السورية بعد رحيل الرئيس السوري بشار الاسد ستكون غير مركزية، ويمكن للاكراد ادارة شؤونهم”.

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February 24th, 2012, 10:33 am

 

79. irritated said:

#66. majedkhaldoun said:

“Ismaeel Haneieh supported the syrian revolution,in a speech in Egypt, this is a change in Hamas position.”

It simply means that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have finally accepted to fund Hamas with the millions of dollars that Iran was ‘discreetly’ providing to Hamas.
Hamas is now totally is Saudi Arabia’s hand and its office in Damascus may probably be closed by the Syrian government soon.

In addition, his new position may affect negatively the 600,000 Palestinians in Syria who have been benefiting of the same rights as the Syrians for years, contrary at how they are treated in other Arab countries.
Hanyeh made a very dangerous and premature move.

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February 24th, 2012, 10:34 am

 

80. zoo said:

Dr. al-Jafari Re-Elected Rapporteur of UN Special Committee on Decolonization
Feb 24, 2012
http://www.sana.sy/eng/22/2012/02/24/402387.htm
NEW YORK, (SANA)_ The Permanent Reprehensive of the Syrian Arab republic to the UN, Dr. Bashar Al-Jafari, was unanimously re-elected as Rapporteur of UN Special Committee on Decolonization.

The UN Special Committee on Decolonization was convened at the UN headquarters yesterday .

The re-election of Dr. Al-Jafari, according to many analysts and observers, is yet another recognition by members of the Committee of the Syrian important and key role.

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February 24th, 2012, 10:45 am

 

81. jad said:

Showing how the armed gangs do the destruction first then take footage of it to sell as a ‘bombardment’ prove in the media.
The interesting things is that the same terrorist who did it make the comments in the other clip as if he was an innocent civilian happened to be in the location…without showing the armed gangs he is with.

شاهد الفيديو لتعرف من وراء احراق المحلات في حمص

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February 24th, 2012, 10:52 am

 

82. jad said:

Lah Lah Lah Lah….tsk tsk tsk tsk, how sad! The Saudis are OUT!
“العربية”: إنسحاب الوفد السعودي إحتجاجا على عدم فعالية إجتماعات تونس
إنسحب وزبر الخارجية السعودي سعود الفيصل إحتجاجاً على عدم فعالية إجتماعات تونس.

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February 24th, 2012, 11:07 am

 

83. Alan said:

76. JAD сказал :

رئيس المجلس “الوطني السوري” برهان غليون رؤيته ان “الحكومة السورية بعد رحيل الرئيس السوري بشار الاسد ستكون غير مركزية, ويمكن للاكراد ادارة شؤونهم “.
الكثير من السوريين سيطلبونه للمحاكمة بمن فيهم الأكرادالذين دائما اداروا شؤونهم بدون فزلكاته !

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February 24th, 2012, 11:09 am

 

84. Jerusalem said:

«أرسلت صور المسلحين الذين شاهدتهم بعيني وهم يشتبكون مع الجيش ويرمون عليه القذائف من وادي خالد … بل طلبت مني إدارة «الجزيرة» العودة إلى بيروت بحجة أنّني متعب …». مجدداً، تردّ إبراهيم عليه لتقول «تعرضت للإهانة الشديدة، ومسحت بالأرض، لأنني أحرجت زهير سالم الناطق باسم «الإخوان المسلمين» في سوريا، وحرمت بسبب ذلك من كل مقابلات سوريا وتعرضت لتهديد بنقل دوامي إلى دوام ليلي بحجة أنني أفقد المحطة توازنها». ثم تلفت إبراهيم إلى التحريض الذي يمارسه الناشطون السوريون على الهواء بعبارات تحريض طائفي يفهمها السوريون جيداً». ثم يتساءل هاشم في رسالة جديدة عن موقف مدير الأخبار (إبراهيم هلال)، فترد عليه زميلته بالقول إنه واقع «بين فكّي كماشة، أحدهما له علاقة بالأجندة والآخر بالمهنية المطلوبة …».هذه المحادثة الإلكترونية كاملة بثّتها «الإخبارية السورية» بعدما أجرت مقابلة مع القراصنة الذين اخترقوا نظام «الجزيرة» المعلوماتي. لكن هذا السبق الصحافي لم يأخذ حقّه، ولم يصل إلى جمهور كبير بسبب ضعف الإعلام السوري الرسمي وعجز قناة الإخبارية عن تحقيق الحضور المطلوب، إلى جانب فقدان الثقة بهذه المحطة
http://www.arabtimes.com/portal/news_display.cfm?Action=&Preview=No&nid=10620

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February 24th, 2012, 11:25 am

 

85. ann said:

Police wield batons against pro-Syria protesters in Tunis – 2012-02-24

TUNIS, Feb. 24 (Xinhua) — Some supporters of the Syria government attempted to storm the venue of the so-called Friends of Syria conference but were met by baton-wielding policemen trying to stop them, Xinhua reporters said on Friday.

The protesters clashed with the police in front of the hotel in Gammarth, north of Tunis, where the international conference on the Syrian crisis is taking place, Radio Express FM reported.

Shouting anti-America and anti-Qatar slogans, the demonstrators denounced the expulsions of Syrian diplomats as well as the ongoing meeting, which they termed “a plot against Syria perpetrated on the Tunisian soil.”

[…]

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February 24th, 2012, 11:32 am

 
 

87. ann said:

*** RACIST COLONIALIST THIEVES! ***

EU to freeze Syrian Central Bank assets Feb 27 – 24 February, 2012

http://rt.com/news/syria-eu-freeze-bank-151/

“Starting from Monday, we will take new strong measures, notably a freezing of the assets of the Syrian Central Bank,” Juppe announced.

Another participant in the event, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on Friday called on all nations to freeze Syrian assets and boycott oil from the country.

[…]

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February 24th, 2012, 11:39 am

 

88. Alan said:

الوفد السعودي ينسحب من اجتماع مايسمى (أصدقاء سورية)احتجاجا على عدم فعالية الاجتماعات
هذا مؤشر على انخراطها في محافل التخبط و المغالاة! لقيمة للسعودية اذا لم تكن سورية في كامل قيمتها و عافيتها!

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February 24th, 2012, 11:46 am

 

89. ann said:

Head in sand: UK recognizes Syrian rebels – 24 February, 2012

http://rt.com/news/britian-recognizes-syrian-opposition-143/

After pledging to intensify links with the opposition, Hague continued “we will now treat them and recognize them as a legitimate representative of the Syrian people.”

He further claimed “it is very important in Moscow and Beijing for there to be a re-evaluation of the position” as Syria continues to slide “towards greater chaos and bloodshed.”

However, Moscow remained adamant that both sides were responsible for the violence, and maintained that humanitarian relief must not be used as a pretext for military intervention.

[…]

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February 24th, 2012, 11:46 am

 

90. Majed97 said:

Recognizing the SNC as “A” legitimate representative of the Syrian people is really in line with what the Russian, Chinese and even Syrian government has been saying for months (will negotiate with all parties). There is nothing drastic about that, which might explain as to why Saudi are unhappy about the meeting. They want the SNC to recognized as THE representative…

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February 24th, 2012, 12:03 pm

 

91. zoo said:

Hawk Saudis do not care about humanitarian plans, they want to crush Syria and its defiant leader.

Saudi minister leaves Tunis meeting over “inactivity”-TV
Fri Feb 24, 2012 4:24pm GMT
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5E8DO7HB20120224

DUBAI Feb 24 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s delegation walked out of a “Friends of Syria” meeting in Tunis on Friday over what it saw as the gathering’s “inactivity”, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya television said.

It said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal left the meeting after saying in a speech that focusing on humanitarian aid to Syria was “not enough”.

Saudi Arabia says no use in dialogue in Syria
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-arabia-says-no-use-in-dialogue-in-syria-446679.html

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February 24th, 2012, 12:05 pm

 

92. admir said:

@ Majed # 66

“The regime is instigating the Shiite Sunni sedition, the revolution in Syria is for freedom and dignity,not a religious one as some try to make it look like.” – majedkhaldoun

——————————————————–

not exactly – the revolution in syria from the beginning was about islamism and briging sunnis to power by overthrowing the alawite (offshoot-shiite) government.
just by taking a look at some of the pictures of the facebook page ‘syrian revolution 2011′ and reading their initial comments (i.e. before march 15 2011) will give enough evidence that the uprising was a sunni islamist revolution from the beginning.
-initial pictures always showed sunni mosques and gave reference to god (as opposed to secular authority like egyptians/tunisians did).
-initial comments were sectarian and against non-sunnis (particularily against alawites)
it was only when the revolution gained momentum (and everyone paid attention to the facebook page) that the admins of the page got help from egyptian and tunisian activists to hide their actual message in the lying cloak of false messages about ‘unity’ and ‘oneness’ and ‘civil state’.
http://www.syria-tribune.com/en/index.php/our-articles/70-under-bonnet
http://www.syria-tribune.com/en/index.php/our-articles/73-facebook-medium-or-tool

finally it isnt the regime that is instigating the shiite-sunni sedition, the activists are the ones doing it themselves and blaming it on the regime (like how they massacred 120 soldiers/security forces in jisr-al-shugour and blamed it on the regime). the regime could have caused sedition like mubarak did and crushed the revolution, but why would they need to do that when they have the opposition rebels doing it for them?

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February 24th, 2012, 12:24 pm

 

93. bronco said:

#96 Majed97

The Kingdom wanted a declaration from the international community that Bashar al Assad should resign, not less.
Instead all they got is an ‘humanitarian’ plan that will need to be approved by Bashar Al Assad and a recognition of the SNC as one ( of many) representatives of Syrians. The French did that a few months ago with not much impact on the SNC’s internal disunity.
Now the SNC can say ‘show me the money’. It’s an incentive for the SNC to bring it to participate in the dialog with the Syria WITHOUT insisting on the precondition of the resignation of Bashar al Assad.
No need for dialog in Syria say the Saudis. In their own authoritarian regime, the word ‘dialog with opposition’ is forbidden.
Contrarily, the UN and most of the international community want a democratic dialog and no more military confrontations and civilian casualties.
Saudi Arabia, been bypassed, will probaby increase money and weapons delivery to armed islamists extremist in Syria to prevent any dialog.

The next step will be for Kofi Anan to discuss with the Russians the modality of a ‘ceasefire ‘ and the dialog between the Syrian government and the ‘tamed’ opposition.

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February 24th, 2012, 12:28 pm

 

94. Revlon said:

In my opinion, the US while maintaining a comfortable distance from getting embroiled in the Syrian crisis is increasingly tightening the pressure on the regime by escalating sanctions, advancing the arming of the rebels as a potential alternative, and probably providing the green light for proponents of arming and supporting of FSA (GCC and Turkey) to proceed with their plans.
__________________________________________________________________
UPDATE 5-Clinton suggests Syrian rebels will get arms
By Arshad Mohammed
LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters)

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested on Thursday Syria’s opposition will ultimately arm itself and said she would bet against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s staying in power.
………………….
“There will be increasingly capable opposition forces. They will from somewhere, somehow, find the means to defend themselves as well as begin offensive measures,” she added.
…………………
Some U.S. officials have avoided answering questions on whether the “Friends of Syria” group may discuss arming the opposition. The United States, in a change in emphasis, on Tuesday suggested it could become an alternative.
——————————————————————
Western and Arab powers to meet in Tunis
ARMING THE REBELS?
The official said members of the “Friends of Syria” group were likely to pledge specific amounts of aid but did not expect them to consider arming the opposition. Arab diplomats have suggested, however, that formal or informal moves to arm the rebels may be discussed.

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February 24th, 2012, 12:44 pm

 

95. zoo said:

Putin: we do not intend to be anyone’s yes-men.

http://news.yahoo.com/putin-says-west-seeking-regime-change-iran-171442402.html

The Russian strongman earlier this month accused Western powers of acting “like a bull in a china shop” in Arab conflicts and on Friday firmly defended Russia’s veto of a UN Security Council resolution that blamed the violence on Assad.

“I think that our position at the UN Security Council on Syria shows that we do not intend to be anyone’s yes-men. And I hope that this is how things continue,” said Putin.
(..)

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February 24th, 2012, 1:06 pm

 

96. zoo said:

Red Cross in Syria’s Baba Amr to evacuate wounded
AFP – 15 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/red-cross-syrias-baba-amr-evacuate-wounded-175247045.html

Ambulances entered the besieged Homs district of Baba Amr on Friday to evacuate casualties from bombardment by regime forces, including two wounded Western journalists and the bodies of two others, the International Committee of the Red Cross said.

“The ICRC and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent are on the spot in Baba Amr, attempting to evacuate as soon as possible everyone in need of urgent help,” the ICRC spokesman in Damascus, Saleh Dabbakeh, told AFP.

He said the four Western journalists were included in the operation, and at least 11 ambulances and other vehicles are in Baba Amr.
(…)

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February 24th, 2012, 1:09 pm

 

97. Revlon said:

السعودية تقول ان تسليح المعارضة السورية فكرة ممتازة
Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:14pm GMT
http://ara.reuters.com/article/topNews/idARACAE81Q8KJ20120224

تونس (رويترز) – قال وزير خارجية السعودية الامير سعود الفيصل يوم الجمعة ان تزويد المعارضة السورية التي تواجه حملة قمع عنيفة من جانب قوات الرئيس بشار الاسد بالاسلحة تعد فكرة ممتازة.

وردا على سؤال في بداية اجتماع ثنائي مع وزيرة الخارجية الامريكية هيلاري كلينتون في العاصمة التونسية عما اذا كان يعتقد ان تسليح المعارضة السورية فكرة جيدة قال الامير سعود الفيصل انه يعتقد انها فكرة ممتازة.

وردا على سؤال عن السبب في رؤيته لذلك قال الوزير لانه يتعين على المعارضة السورية الدفاع عن نفسها.

وكان تلفزيون العربية قال في وقت سابق إن الوفد السعودي انسحب من الاجتماع احتجاجا على ما قال إنه “عدم فاعلية” الاجتماع لكن مسؤولا سعوديا قال إنه غادر فقط لحضور محادثات ثنائية.

واضافت القناة التلفزيونية أن الأمير سعود الفيصل غادر الاجتماع بعدما قال في كلمته إن التركيز على المساعدات الانسانية لسوريا “لا يكفي”.

وقال مساعد لوزير الخارجية السعودي لرويترز ردا على سؤال بشأن التقرير “غادرنا لحضور اجتماعات ثنائية” على هامش المؤتمر
Assistant to KSA FM explained the reason for the FM “withdrawal from the meeting after his speech” as intended to attend a scheduled side meeting in the FSG conference.

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February 24th, 2012, 1:17 pm

 

98. irritated said:

98. Revlon

The Saudis come back with an unconvincing diplomatic excuse for their withdrawal. Harm is done.

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February 24th, 2012, 1:23 pm

 

99. Revlon said:

Syrian National Council المجلس الوطني السوري

http://www.facebook.com/TheSyrianNationalCouncil
24/02/2012
31 minutes ago
باباعمرو:تم دخول منظمة الهلال الاحمر السوري الى منزل جهز كمشفى ميداني بعد رفض قوات الامن دخول منظمة الصليب الاحمر الدولية ورفض الصحفيون الذهاب معهم لعدم ثقتهم بالنظام السوري وطلبوا دخول سفير فرنسي أو امريكي مع منظمة الصليب الاحمر كي يتم اخلائهم من باباعمرو .

Assad security forces has denied IRC access to baba Amr; only a team of the regime red crescent has been permitted in!

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February 24th, 2012, 1:24 pm

 

100. Revlon said:

99. irritatedsaid:
((98. Revlon
The Saudis come back with an unconvincing diplomatic excuse for their withdrawal. Harm is done.))

Touché!

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February 24th, 2012, 1:26 pm

 

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