“The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013,” by Joshua Landis in MEP
Posted by Joshua on Thursday, February 23rd, 2012
We are pleased to offer members of the press a preview of an article by Joshua Landis from the upcoming Spring 2012 journal Middle East Policy titled “The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime is Likely To Survive to 2013.” Click here to read the full article.
Dr. Landis (University of Oklahoma, Center for Middle East Studies & Editor, Syria Comment) believes that the regime’s chances for survival to 2013 are stronger than many think, for four reasons:
1. Asad remains strong militarily.
Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, who left the military in the hands of non-family members, the Asads have taken extreme “sectarian safety measures,” staffing the security forces and broader government with loyal Alawis. Some estimates suggest that as many as 80% of Syria’s officer corps are Alawi.
2. The opposition is weak.
Reports that the political Syrian National Council has gained control over the Free Syrian Army are by most accounts fictional. Whether peaceful or armed, the opposition cells in Syria work independently.
3. The international community is unlikely to intervene.
Syria remains in the realm of “too big to fail,” and foreign powers are unlikely to intervene if Syrians cannot unite and build a military force capable of providing, at the very least, a credible promise of stabilizing Syria on its own.
4. The economy is problematic.
Asad’s cousin Rami Makhlouf is “Mr. Ten Percent” of the Syrian economy, having assumed a majority stake in many major enterprises and holding companies, assuring that the Asad family maintained control over the economy.
To read the entire article, click here.