Will Sanctions Bring Down the Syrian Regime?

Will Sanctions Bring Down the Syrian Regime?

It is doubtful that sanctions alone will cause regime-change in Syria. Economic deprivation and reduced government spending does not usually lead to regime-change. It is hard to think of a Middle Eastern government that has been brought down by sanctions. Some of the countries that have faced sanctions for decades are Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Sudan. Of course Gaza has faced severe sanctions in an effort to bring down the Hamas government with very little success. What sanctions do very effectively is make people poor and hungry. Governments are good at passing along the pain.  In Gaza there is 80% unemployment and widespread malnutrition but no regime change. The UN estimates that sanctions on Iraq killed over 300,000 Iraqis in the 1990s. Starving Syrians is not the intention of US and European policy makers who imposed the sanctions. They continue to insist that Assad will step down due to sanctions. But what Arab leader has ever stepped down as a result of having his country sanctioned? As Albert Einstein said, “Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”

The good policy makers in Western capitals are not insane, so what are they up to?

  1. Are they simply imposing sanctions because it is a politically inexpensive way to do something? After all, military intervention, which is the tested method to bring about regime change, is unthinkable today.
  2. Could some policy makers be hoping to ratchet up the humanitarian disaster in Syria in order to create an “intervention friendly environment” down the road? This seems far fetched but the humanitarian argument was one of the more persuasive rationals for intervening in Iraq. The more extreme the disaster, the more extreme solutions people are willing to entertain.

The problem with sanctions is that they destroy national institutions, decimate the middle class, and degrade society. We saw this in Iraq. The results are not pretty. They make building democracy all the more difficult when the offending regime is finally overturned. The only thing we know about democracy promotion with any certainty is that its chances of success rise exponentially with greater per capita GDP.  A long sanctions regime can only hurt democracy promotion. We all know about the magic of the middle class. It is hard to do anything constructive in a country without one.

Religion. The Arab League vote split the Arab countries along Shiite-Sunni lines. Countries with large Shiite populations — Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen — voted with Syria or abstained. Another troubling aspect of the Syrian conflict is that the region’s minorities are remaining faithful to Assad and Syria’s Alawi-led regime even as it grows increasingly isolated. The Christian minority in the region has come out fairly solidly behind Assad. Egyptian Copts prayed for Assad in a large stadium the other day (Egyption Christians pray for Syrians And Syrian President 11-12-2011). Syriac Orthodox Archbishop of Aleppo, Yohana Ibrahim, said President Bashar al-Assad was “the best man” to lead reform in Syria. (Syrian archbishop says ‘everyone loves’ Assad). The Maronite Patriarch of Lebanon upset many when he backed Assad and warned against regime-change in Syria. The growing religious divide in the Middle East is not new, but it is troubling. It suggests that Assad will not relinquish power, as King Abdullah of Jordan and other regional leaders are urging him to do. It also suggests that Assad’s base support among minorities will not crumble easily. Religion has a way of making martyrs.

A friend writes that his parents cannot find cooking gas in Aleppo. The replacement bottles for the stove are unavailable in the market. Mazoot, or fuel-oil, which is used to heat homes, power taxis and farm equipment is also absent, or available at high prices. Aleppo authorities also warn that extended electric cuts are coming due to lack of power. Syria is facing a cold winter. Older people are standing in lines to get small containers of mazoot filled.  The Syrian pound has fallen to 54.25 to a dollar.

News Round Up

Pro-Syrian regime protesters, carry a giant Syrian flag during a demonstration against the Arab League decision to suspend Syria, in Damascus, Syria, November 13, 2011. Similar pro-government demonstrations were held in Aleppo and Latakia.

DJ Arab League To Send 500 Observers To Syria, 2011-11-14

 CAIRO (AFP)–The Arab League is preparing to send observers to Syria but needs guarantees from Damascus on their mission and the rights of each side, the organization’s chief, Nabil al-Arabi, said Monday.

Foreign Policy

An estimated 70people have been killed mostly in clashes between Syrian security forces and defectors in the southern city of Dera’a, in what has been the bloodiest day since the start of the uprisings. Meanwhile, crowds angered by comments byJordanian King Abdullah urging President Bashar al-Assad to step down stormed the Jordanian embassy in Damascus, bringing down the country’s flag.

The suspension and imposition of sanctions by the Arab League on Syria that is due to take effect on Wednesday is being met with uproar from the Syrian regime and its supporters. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem denounced the move as an “illegal” and “dangerous step” saying that “Syria will not budge and will emerge stronger…and plots against Syria will fail.” Regime supporters attacked the Turkish, Saudi Arabian, and Qatari embassies in protest of the suspension.Foreign governments have had varied responses. Russia condemned the suspension accusing Western nations of inciting the opposition. Angered by the attack on its embassy, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davultoglu asserted, “We will take the most resolute stance against these attacks and we will stand by the Syrian people’s rightful struggle.”The European Union reached an agreement to extend sanctions. King Abdullah of Jordan called for Bashar al-Assad to resign stating, “If Bashar has the interest of his country, he would step down, but he would also create an ability to reach out and start a new phase of Syrian political life. Syria has requested an emergency meeting with the Arab League prior to the suspension and said it will meet with representatives from the opposition on Tuesday.

EU Places New Sanctions on Syria – Wall Street Journal

European Union foreign ministers announced new sanctions on Syria even as they insisted that the situation in the country didn’t merit the same military response they mounted in Libya earlier this year.

Turkey May Review Energy Supplies to Syria, Minister Says, 2011-11-15, By Emre Peker

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) — Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said the government is currently providing power supplies to Syria and may reconsider “all decisions” on the matter if its southern neighbor’s policies don’t change, according to state-run Anatolia news agency…..

Iranian Officials Meet With Syrian Opposition – 2011-11-14, by Richard Spencer in the Telegraph

Iranian officials have held talks with Syrian opposition leaders, in a dramatic sign of the growing isolation of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Several separate opposition sources have told The Daily Telegraph that Iran opened a channel to a “moderate” opposition group about a month ago. Officials met Haytham Manna and other members of a group known as the National Coordinating Body for Democratic Change, or the National Coordi

nating Committee. The group is strongly opposed to foreign intervention in Syria, and is likely to be seen as more acceptable to Iran than the largest group, the Syrian National Council, which has argued for “international protection” for civilians…..

هيئة التنسيق ستزور قطر .. والمناع يوضح موقفه ويؤكد : الحل يجب أن يكون عربياً Haytham Manna

هيئة التنسيق ستزور قطر .. والمناع يوضح موقفه ويؤكد : الحل يجب أن يكون عربياً | عكس السير دوت كوم

Syria’s fragmented opposition
As anti-government forces try to develop a united voice, Al Jazeera looks at the disparate groups within.
Roxanne Horesh Last Modified: 10 Nov 2011 13:42

Syria’s economy is key to Assad’s future
By Liz Sly, Monday, November 14

BEIRUT — The dramatic decision by Arab states to turn against President Bashar al-Assad could further damage Syria’s economy at a time when it is already unraveling, posing perhaps a graver challenge to Assad’s survival than the country’s nearly-eight-month-old popular uprising, analysts say.

The broader loss of regional support represents an important psychological blow to a regime that has long prided itself as a champion of Arab nationalist causes. In one indicator of how far Assad’s fortunes have fallen, Jordan’s King Abdullah II suggested Monday that the Syrian president step down, though he hedged that call, telling the BBC that Assad needed to ensure an orderly transition.

It was, nonetheless, the most explicit rejection yet by an Arab leader of Assad’s rule ahead of an Arab League meeting Wednesday to discuss further measures against Syria, including economic sanctions.

They could have a more profound and immediate effect than the withdrawal of political support, given that Western powers are ruling out military intervention and anti-government demonstrations have seen neither the protest movement nor the Syrian security forces gain a decisive advantage. On Monday, the European Union announced that it would expand its sanctions, to include 18 more individuals associated with the Assad regime and denial of access to the European Investment Bank.

“The economy is a trigger of a lot of other issues on a broader level,” said Ayham Kamel, Middle East analyst with the Eurasia Group. The business community has supported Assad so far, he said, “but over a longer period of time, they’re going to reevaluate.”

The extent of the damage is difficult to measure, and Syrian government officials say they don’t have indicators. But they do not play down the gravity of the situation.

Syrian Economy Minister Mohammad Nidal al-Shaar said at a conference last month that the economy is in a “state of emergency,” according to comments quoted by the Damascus-based Syria Report. In a recent interview in Damascus, Adib Mayalah, governor of the Central Bank of Syria, described the situation as “very serious” and ticked off the problems the economy is facing.

“Unemployment is rising, imports are falling, and government income is reduced,” he said. “In areas where there are protests, there is no economic activity — so people aren’t paying tax. Because they aren’t working, they are not repaying their loans — so the banks are in difficulty. And all this is weakening the economy.”

Merchants interviewed recently on the streets of Damascus report a 40 to 50 percent fall in business as consumers hoard cash and cease spending on all but the most essential items. Tourism has skidded to a halt, representing a loss of $2 billion a month to an economy worth $59 billion last year, Mayalah said.

“The whole system has been shrinking — and very fast,” said Rateb Shallah, a prominent Damascus businessman. “The sanctions are squeezing us, and it is definitely affecting us quite a bit.

To what extent the downturn is due to the sanctions isn’t clear, however.

Until now, only the United States, the European Union, Canada and Japan have imposed sanctions on Syria, with relatively limited measures mostly targeting individuals and financial services. The most serious measure, a European embargo on oil purchases imposed in August, goes into effect only on Tuesday because Italy sought to ensure that its existing contracts were honored.

But the experience of the oil embargo illustrates the broader crisis of confidence confronting Syria. European nations, which account for a vast majority of Syrian oil exports, immediately halted their purchases, even though they were not required to do so for three more months. And oil pumped since then has gone unsold, despite Syria’s boasts that it would easily find other customers. Syria has curtailed its oil production by more than 25 percent, Mayalah said.

In a similar fashion, the restrictions on financial services and individuals have had a detrimental effect even on aspects of the economy that aren’t directly connected, by dissuading investors and companies from doing business with Syria. The Central Bank of Syria has not been sanctioned, but many businesses are refusing to engage with it because they fear falling foul of the U.S. prohibition on trade in services with Syria and jeopardizing their interests elsewhere, Mayalah said.

Foreign investment has slowed to a trickle for the same reasons, he said, even though there are no restrictions.

But investors may be equally deterred by Syria’s shaky political future and the escalating violence. The Local Coordination Committees, an opposition group, reported the deaths of 50 people in violence Monday, 28 of them in the southern province of Daraa, where there were unconfirmed reports of major clashes between the Syrian army and defected soldiers. The official Syrian Arab News Agency said two members of the security forces were killed in Daraa.

A trade embargo would be difficult to enforce. Syria can still count on two key neighbors with which it shares long and porous borders: Lebanon, one of only two countries that voted against the Arab League’s resolutions censuring Syria, and Iraq, which abstained.

Yet even trade with Iraq, which has been seeking to boost business ties with Syria as the region tilts against it, has fallen because of the indirect effect of sanctions, said Syria’s deputy economy minister, Khaled Mahmoud Saloutah. The two trading companies that handle most cross-border trade are based in Europe and have been forced to curtail their transactions, reducing the value of Syria’s exports to Iraq by 10 percent, he said.

“The economy is not going to collapse overnight,” Kamel said. “But it is definitely taking Syria down a risky path.”

The newly sanctioned Syrians — other than military and intelligence people — include 3 young members of the Syrian Electronic Army, Rami makhlouf’s lawyer – actually one of his good friends called me today to explain that he had not taken a case for Makhlouf in four years. Another is the head of Berri clan shabbiha in Aleppo. #13 on the list is the most interesting. He is simply named Maj General Nazih. No last name is given. So any one with the name Nazih will have to think twice about a trip to Athens.

Qatar Presses Decisive Shift in Arab Politics – by Anthony Shadid in NYTimes

The tiny emirate’s intentions remain murky to its neighbors and even allies — some see a Napoleon complex, others an Islamist agenda….

“Do they fill a void? Yes,” said Bassma Koudmani, a Syrian opposition leader who credited the Qataris with a key role in the Arab League’s startling decision Saturday to suspend Syria and isolate a government at the pivot of the region’s relations. “They are filling a space and a role that is not being taken up by other countries.” … American diplomatic cables in 2009, released by WikiLeaks, claim that Qatar has occasionally offered Al Jazeera’s coverage as a bargaining tool. A senior journalist there said while no order was given, the network’s reporting on Syria changed sharply in April.

“We could feel the change in atmosphere,” the journalist said.

Syria: It’s the Economy Stupid
by Armand Hurault, Arab Insurrection Analyst, Transnational Crisis Project

The Syrian economic policies over the past 25 years have underpinned the current uprising. I argue that the economy may well be the Achilles’ heel of Assad’s grip on power…..

Dr Emad Mustafa NBN 11 11 11 02

Syria’s neighbors helping shape its fate LA Times

Syria’s embattled government must face the changing dynamics of the region as old alliances fade and new brokers emerge, most notably Qatar….

عشاء المعارضة السورية مع اللجنة العربية حسم الموقف من نظام الأسد
Ash-Sharq al-Awsat
بسمة قضماني لـ «الشرق الأوسط»: الجامعة استجابت لمطالب المجلس الوطني

How Syrian Authorities can Hurt Ex-pats – (in French)

Maidhc Ó Cathail The ‘Humanitarian’ Road to Damascus: Pro-Israel Groups Outline U.S. Options to Assist Syrian Opposition -mForeign Policy Journal

عاجل : اقالة الأمين القطري المساعد لحزب البعث العربي الاشتراكي محمد سعيد بخيتان
وتنصيب وزير الدفاع السابق حسن تركماني

Arab leaders shouldn’t kill their people?
Posted By Marc Lynch

I am an Alawi from Antioch. I have many relatives in the alawite communities of Turkey including those in Mersin, Tarsus, Iskenderun (Alexandretta), Arsuz and Samandag, many of whom I do not know personally. I also visited Syria and am told I have relatives in Latakia, Homs, Damascus, and Aleppo. I am responding to Ms. Kahf and Mr. Landis’ claims regarding Alawite tribes. The truth is as far as I know, there is no such a thing as an Alawite tribe. This is just simply a reflection of modernization, educational attainment, and the prevalence of an urban lifestyle which weakened the traditional intra-communal links. I am about 50 yrs of age and never heard of “tribes”. Even close family relationships are non-existent. I have many relatives that I do not know and could not recognize even if I saw them on the street. I live in the USA and some of my relatives are scattered in Europe including Norway, France, Holland, Germany, Sweden, and the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. So much for the “tribes”!

Human Rights Watch accuses Syrian government of “crimes against humanity”- The human-rights group, Human Rights Watch, released a 63-page report accusing the Syriangovernment of “crimesagainst humanity.” The report reflects the accounts of 110 victims andwitnesses who claim Syrian forces killed at least 587 civilians since the startof the uprisings in March. It also references the tortureof political prisoners and unarmed civilians, including the elderly and children.

Turkey deputy: weapons being smuggled to Syria
The National
Thomas Seibert Nov 11, 2011

ISTANBUL // Many firearms from Turkey have entered Syria, and the Turkish government has stopped alleged arms-smuggling activities at a border post between the two countries, a Turkish opposition deputy said yesterday.

“You see many Turkish-made firearms in Syria,” Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, a deputy from the province of Hatay, which borders Syria, said in a telephone interview. “I don’t know how they got into the country.”

A friend Writes: Friday, November 11, 2011

This is the most inept group of people to govern. The article talks about inability of anyone to pinpoint what the population figure is. One group thinks Syria’s population increases by 670,000 a year. Another thinks its 500,000 and a third believes its 440,000. As for unemployment, the government continues to think its 8% (joke?) while some think its 30%. How can you run a country with such variations? Bashar should have stopped everything in 2000 and did one thing. call the international organizations with expertise in this field and get help in finding out population levels and growth rates in every city and district and make sure each household has an income/asset bracket that qualifies it as poor/middle/wealthy. Only then, subsidies can go to who deserves it and policies can be implemented given actual population trends and where. Instead………………………enough to make want to cry http://www.syriasteps.com/?d=127&id=77652&in_main_page=1

Syria stopped paying oil companies
2011-11-11 15:28:06.43 GMT

LONDON, Nov. 11 (UPI) — Though oil production in Syria is ongoing, sources close to the government said Damascus stopped paying supermajors Royal Dutch Shell and Total. Sources familiar with the Syrian energy sector told the Financial Times that major energy companies working in Syria were getting paid by the government until a few weeks ago. Payments slowed and eventually stopped as European governments put more pressure on Damascus for its crackdown on opposition protesters. “Payments have been delayed and some are outstanding,” said one industry insider who spoke to the Financial Times on condition of anonymity. “My sense is the government has no cash.”

Syria Regime’s Likely Collapse Requires U.S. Planning: Analyst
2011-11-10, By Peter S. Green

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — U.S. needs to plan for all contingencies, bring about demise of Assad regime, as long-lasting conflict will become bloodier, more sectarian, spread to neighboring countries, Andrew Tabler, fellow at Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says in testimony to Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Six-point plan needed:
* Form Syria contact group for coordinated pressure on Assad
* Peel away Assad supporters, especially Christians, Sunnis
* Aid opposition to develop peaceful strategy of strikes, boycotts
* Push for international human rights monitors to enter Syria
* Prepare for militarization of conflict – no-fly zone, buffer zones to keep protesters safe from Assad military
* Push for UN Security Council action on sanctions,
potential use of force

Comments (527)


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151. majedkhaldoun said:

Al is too late ,they should have kicked Bashar long time ago, bashar is stubborn and stupid dictator, he is lier too, he should never been trusted. the pro regime should be treated just like the guy newfolder showed in comment #147.

We need no fly zone,this is minimum.AL must support that.

Nouri Al Malki must go also, Muqtada Al Sadr is sending his men to kill syrian he deserve what will happen to him.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:02 pm

 

152. Ya Mara Ghalba said:

Joshua above links to a wooly, rubbishy article that tries to argue that the Syrian economy is already troubled and the putatively troubled economy can bring down the regime. The article contains a statement that Joshua has said himself in the past: “The potential collapse of the Syrian pound may….[blah blah].” My comment is that it is impossible to have a collapse of the Syrian Pound so long as (a) the Syrians keep on accepting it and using it as real money in Syria, and (b) there is no hyperinflation in Syria. The current situation in Syria contains nothing that can lead to an upset of either of those two things. A small devaluation is a completely different thing from a collapse. Today the Central Bank of Syria arguably should somewhat devalue the Syrian Pound, an action which would both decrease imports and increase exports, which would bring Syria’s small negative balance-of-trade back into a positive balance-of-trade, which would in turn make the exchanage rate of the Syrian Pound more sustainably easily managed. The Central Bank is already in the midst of doing that, apparently, or nearly finished if the real exchange rate today is US$1 = SYP 55 (the officially quoted exchange rate is still US$1 = 50) in round numbers.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:02 pm

 

153. Ya Mara Ghalba said:

Joshua Landis reports above: “Aleppo authorities also warn that extended electric cuts are coming due to lack of power” and he gives as his source http://www.syria-news.com/readnews.php?sy_seq=140028 and that article shows that Joshua’s statement is legally defensible but spurious and misleading. Relatedly see http://www.sana.sy/ara/2/2011/11/13/381114.htm . This is an example that you shouldn’t trust Joshua to tell the truth and the whole truth, not even when he knows the truth.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:03 pm

 

154. Ya Mara Ghalba said:

Joshua says above: “A troubling aspect of the Syrian conflict is that the region’s minorities are remaining faithful to Assad and Syria’s Alawi-led regime…. Assad’s base support among minorities will not crumble easily.”

That is bogus and spurious talk. I and others have demonstrated that the Sunnis are remaining faithful to the Assad regime. Joshua has never — never! — presented a shred of evidence that the Sunnis are not remaining faithful to the regime in big numbers. The only evidence of unfaithfulness is the street protests, whose turnout numbers have been small relative to the whole Sunni population. I remember Joshua admitted earlier that the middle class Sunnis are remaining faithful to the regime (except that he called them the “Sunni elites”). I remember he admitted that Aleppo and Damascus are remaining faithful to the regime and are overwhelmingly Sunni in religion. I believe I remember he admitted that the bulk of the Sunni clerics support a peaceful process of reform, which you know can only be under the auspices of the regime. The big big fundamental about the Syrian situation is that dissidents do not have a critical mass of support among the Sunnis. And the regime does. Sunnis are 75% of the total population. Nothing important can happen in Syrian politics when a majority of Sunnis object to it. The majority of Sunnis do object to the uprising. They want the reforms but they don’t want the uprising. The idea that there’s a “silent majority” of Sunnis who still don’t know what they want is wishful thinking by the dissidents. See numerous posts by me here in recent earlier threads, including in the immediately previous thread. But, of course, Joshua above doesn’t explicitly say the falsehood that the Sunnis are not faithful to the regime. He doesn’t explicitly say the falsehood that the main plank of the regime’s base is not Sunni. He insinuates it. In the same sentence he’s additional phoney and spurious verbiage in his phrase “Syria’s Alawi-led regime”:

How many Syrian Alawites are in the top government positions in Syria?

The Vice President of Syria, the Prime Minister, the Vice Prime Minister, the Parliament Speaker, his deputy and his secretary, the President of the High Judicial Council, the Chairman of the Central Organization for Control and Inspection, the president of the Financial Supervision Committee, the Head of the Constitutional Court, the Chief of Staff, the Governor of the Central Bank, and all heads of Chambers of Commerce and Industry: All of them are NOT ALAWITES.

Real data does not exist for some of the following top government posts, and the following data are estimates by somebody. This data not real data, or at least not all of it is real data, but it is indicative of what real data would show, if real data existed.

31 Cabinet Ministers, 2 Alawites
14 Province Governors, 2 Alawites
52 Security Branch Chiefs, 12 Alawites
14 Police Chiefs, 2 Alawites
14 City Council Chairmen, 2 Alawites
40 Ambassadors, 4 Alawites
19 Secretaries of the Baath Party branches, 2 Alawites
16 Presidents of the Syrian Universities, 1 Alawites
about 1600 judges in all over Syria, 158 Alawites
about 720 General Managers all over the government, 71 Alawites

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November 16th, 2011, 12:05 pm

 

155. jad said:

Well deserved pies in the face of BH. Levy the french war ‘philosopher’

BHL se prend une tarte a la gueule!!! ouufff ca fait du bien !

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November 16th, 2011, 12:14 pm

 

156. jad said:

From FB:
“”تسريبات صحفية: اجتماع الرباط سيعترف اليوم بمجلس اسطنبول تمهيدا لتدويل الملف السوري””

تسربت معلومات صحفية من الرباط على أن الاجتماع الوزاري العربي سيقرر اليوم الإعتراف “بمجلس اسطنبول الإخواني” على أنه ممثل شرعي للشعب السوري، إضافة إلى منح المجلس حق تمثيل سوريا باجتماعات الجامعة العربية بالمستقبل.
وأشارت هذه المعلومات إلى أن هذا القرار قد توصلت له الجهود القطرية التي تمكنت من السيطرة التامة على قرار الدول الأعضاء بالجامعة، حيث تمكنت من رشوة البعض بأموال طائلة في حين هددت دولا أخرى عبر محركها الأميركي، وتتحدث هذه المعلومات على أن الضغوط القطرية قد استعانت بسفراء واشنطن في بعض الأحيان على الدول التي لم تنصاع للضغوط القطرية، مؤكدة أن الأميركي هدد هذه الدول بإشعال الفتن الداخلية مبرهنا على كلامه بمجموعة من الأوراق التي تظهر كيف تمكن وعملائه بالمنطقة من إشعال الفتنة في ليبيا ومصر وتونس.

كما أكدت المعلومات أن قرار الإعتراف بالمجلس هو عبارة عن خطوة بدائية لتدويل الملف السوري، حيث لن تتمكن الجهود القطرية من رفع الملف السوري مباشرة لمجلس الأمن بوجود معارضة بعض الدول، لذلك سيتولى المجلس بعد حصوله بالإعتراف رفع طلب التدويل، عندها لن تتمكن هذه الدول التي تعارض من رفع صوتها والاعتراض.
وفي هذا السياق حاول المراسلون التحقق من هذه المعلومات عبر مصادر دبلوماسية موجودة في الرباط لكن المصادر لم تؤكد أو تنفي ذلك، كذلك لم يصدر أي تصريح دبلوماسي يوضح ما يتجه إليه “العرب” في اجتماعهم اليوم، لكن الصمت الكبير الذي التزمه الدبلوماسيين يشير إلى أن شيئا ما تم إنجازه بالخفاء.

من جانب آخر أشارت المعلومات إلى أن تهديد مجلس التعاون الخليجي أمس بعد حضورهم الإجتماع إذا ما حضر الوفد السوري له، يأتي كدليل أن القرار اتخذ للإعتراف بمجلس اسطنبول الإخواني حيث أنهم يريدون الترحيب بالمجلس الذي سيكون حاضرا بالكواليس ليظهر في حال تم التوصل لقرار الإعتراف.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:16 pm

 

157. jad said:

ثروات سورية
زياد حيدر

سورية ليس فيها نفط صحيح. نفطها قليل وبالكاد يكفي حاجة السكان والدولة، وهو في تراجع. والغاز الذي في سورية لا يعتبر ثروة من ناحية المقارنة بما هو موجود في إمارة قطر مثلاً. وعلى الرغم من أن ثمة ثروة على الساحل السوري يسيل لها اللعاب، إلا أن تكلفة استخراج هذه الثروة كبيرة جداً، ناهيك عن كونه يدخل ضمن حسابات إقليمية معقدة. ما الذي سيغري الناتو أو غيره من أدوات الحرب الديمقراطية باستهداف سورية إذاً؟
في الواقع أهم ما في سورية من ثروات يرتبط بموقعها ودورها السياسي على مدى العقود الستة التي مضت. فالإمساك بعنق هذه الدولة يعني حكماً، السيطرة على الطرق البرية بين الخليج العربي وأوروبا وشمال إفريقية وأوروبا، كما سيعني الإمساك بعنصر الممانعة في الموضوع الفلسطيني الرافض لأوسلو، ومن ثمّ شل أي قدرة تعطيل في حسابات الدول الكبرى تجاه القضية الفلسطينية، وهي قدرة كانت بارزة وقوية في السنوات التي مضت، وأعاقت تحويل القضية الفلسطينية إلى قضية بيد سلطة محمود عباس فقط. كما أن السيطرة على سورية ستعني أيضاً قطع إمداد حزب اللـه، المعنوي والمادي والحزب كما هو معلوم هو حركة المقاومة المسلحة الأشرس والأكثر تنظيماً في كل العالم العربي والإسلامي ضد إسرائيل، ما سيعني شل الحزب إقليمياً ومن ثمّ محاصرته إسرائيلياً والقضاء عليه. ولذلك تداعياته على لبنان داخلياً كما هو مفهوم، لأنه سيعني إخضاع لبنان للسياسة الإقليمية المطلوبة والتي تجلت صورها خلال حكم رئيس الوزراء سعد الحريري. أيضاً سيعني إحكام السيطرة على سورية كسر ظهر إيران التي تشكل أساس التحدي الإستراتيجي لإسرائيل، وإنهاء حالة المعارضة لسياسات الولايات المتحدة في المنطقة نهائياً، ما سيشكل نصراً إستراتيجياً بعيد المدى ليس على إيران وسورية وأغلبية شعوب المنطقة فحسب، بل على دول تسعى لسياسة مستقلة بعيدة عن تأثير القطب الواحد ومن بينها روسيا والهند وحتى الصين، لأن التحدي الرئيسي بين الطرفين حالياً تشكل سورية إحدى ساحاته لا البورصات العالمية فقط. أيضاً يسمح خنق سورية وإضعافها وتوتير البعد الطائفي فيها بتمهيد الطريق لقبول عربي إسلامي بشرعية يهودية إسرائيل، ما يسمح بمشروع تقسيم أعقد وأوسع يطول المنطقة بكاملها، وهو مشروع مهيأ منذ زمن طويل ومعروف للدارسين، وله ممولون ومشجعون بينهم دول وأفراد. أما الحديث عن سورية مدنية علمانية مستقبلاً، فهو أمر مع هذه التطورات يصعب تخيله، إذا ما كان لتلك السيطرة أن تجري. ذلك أنها ستصبغ طائفياً لا محالة أسوة برغبة الدول التي تروج لهذه السيطرة، من جهة، وبحكم تأثير المحيط الديمغرافي المتمثل بالعراق ولبنان، ما يعني ترك سورية ساحة مفتوحة دوما لحرب أهلية محتملة كما هو الأمر في كلا البلدين. الغرض من قولنا هذا ليس التحذير من «الديمقراطية»، ولا بالانتقال السلمي إلى سلطة مدنية منتخبة، وإنما من بعض الداعين إلى ذلك، وعبره إلى تدمير البلاد. والغرض التنبيه بأن قرار الجامعة العربية غير الشرعي منذ يومين، هو لهذا الهدف وليس لغيره. وللجامعة العربية تاريخ في «اللاجدوى» في قضايا معروفة بعضها عمره بعمر استقلال أغلبية الدول المؤسسة فيها. ثروات سورية يسيل لها اللعاب، وبقدر أهميتها يجب الحيطة، وعلى حجمها ربما تكون المواجهة.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:36 pm

 

158. son of damascus said:

@ Ya Mara Ghalba
Do you work for SANA? Why should we trust what Sana has to say when as you said over and over again that their numbers in pro betho demos are always exaggerated? Have they ever run a retraction to apologize for misleading the public with their exaggerations? If they exaggerated in the number of people at the pro rallies, what else are they exaggerating about? Most importantly who is writing the SANA articles, what is the journalist name, why does the journalist not sign his/her name at the end of their article?

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November 16th, 2011, 12:40 pm

 

159. bronco said:

Jad #155

If Arab countries vote for having the SNC representing Syria in the AL, it means that Syria is not frozen temporarily but permanently. The AL would need an unanimous vote to do that.
The SNC is boasting like they do at every meeting in hope of being recognized. Yet, with the arm twisting going on from the GCC and the blackmail of cutting the funds to poor countries, it is quite possible that the AL will show how easy it can be bought by the khalijis that everyone despise.
If it happen, it will be remembered as a day of shame for the arab world.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:43 pm

 

160. jad said:

Dear Bronco,
“If it happen, it will be remembered as a day of shame for the arab world.”
The Arab world have too many shameful days to count, especially when the goat princes* are in charge, why this one day be any different.
يا مصفاية ما عابك بخش

*Gufran I’m sorry to use your own words without permission, will pay you from my paid writing time when I get the check.

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November 16th, 2011, 12:55 pm

 

161. jad said:

The mighty peaceful ‘revolution’ FB page is calling to get the names and addresses for those student who attacked their colleagues in Alkalamon university to give this information to the terrorist group called fsa to become with their families THE next target on their list, in short a licence to kill them.
I wonder if we will see these people in one of the makeup dude defection clips before they kill them as usual:

هذا البوست منقول حرفيا من صفحة الفورة السورية :
(( لمن يعرف أسماء الشبيحة في جامعة القلمون بالأخص أو أي جامعة حكومية أخرى يكتب الأسماء وأماكن سكنهم على صفحة خالد ابن الوليد :
جميع الطلاب الشبيحة مطلوبين لأمن كتائب الجيش المنشق وأصبحوا هدف هم وأهلهم …
الرجاء مراسلتي في أسماء الشبيحة في الجامعات وبالأخص جامعة القلمون …بدنا نربي فيهم الشبيحة … ))

Wonder why there is Mazoot shortage in Syria? Wonder no more, on top of the West ‘calculated’ sanctions against the people and on top of the greedy criminal smugglers, the peaceful ‘angles’ are destroying and stealing every liter they have their ‘wings’ on

حماة – طيبة الامام الأعتداء على خط المازوت
و تستمر عمليات التخريب من قبل الإرهابين و اليوم خط المازوت في منطقة طيبة الامام

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November 16th, 2011, 1:02 pm

 

162. Uzair8 said:

Is it a little quieter than normal on here today?

Perhaps Syrians are busy celebrating the “41st anniversary of the glorious Correctionist Movement”.

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November 16th, 2011, 1:05 pm

 

163. Dale Andersen said:

Memo To: UZAIRB

RE: “…Is it a little quieter than normal on here today?…”

Yes, too quiet

http://playwrighter.blogspot.com/2011/04/arab-news-fox-news-style.html

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November 16th, 2011, 1:11 pm

 

164. Tara said:

Today would be remembered as a historical day in modern Arab history If the AL delegitimizes Assad’s regime. The day should be hailed as an Arab nationalism awakening when governments across the ME stand true instead of mocking the feelings and aspiration of their own citizens. I am looking forward to have a ME where presidents and governments get impeached over sex or corruption charges, let alone murder, torture and illegal arrest.

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November 16th, 2011, 1:11 pm

 

165. jad said:

Twitter:
“مصادر خليجية من داخل مؤتمر الرباط تؤكد ان القرارات ستكون مفجعة وغير مسبقة بحق سوريا اليوم”

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November 16th, 2011, 1:21 pm

 

166. jad said:

Holland’s ambassador in Damascus raised the Syrian flag to cheer the demonstrators up from the roof top of the embassy today, I guess that he was trying to be nice to them, he is known to be very active in the cultural activities in Syria:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=221764797891920

#syria
في منطقة أبو رمانة بدمشق اختلف المشهد اليوم عن الساحات فقد كان هناك تجمعاً غاضباً من مواقف جانحة الغرب ولينضم إلى تلك المواقف السورية السفيــر الهولندي ويقوم برفع علم سورية من أعلى مبنى سفارته بدمشق .
نبراس
كونوا معنا على صفحة شآم
http://www.facebook.com/shaam.syria

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November 16th, 2011, 1:38 pm

 

167. 5 dancing shlomos said:

will injustice and inequality bring down the very corrupt, fascist, amurderkan regime?

Did Feds Coordinate Occupy Wall Street Crackdowns?
From Oakland to NYC, Is the DHS Behind the Crackdown?

http://news.antiwar.com/2011/11/15/did-feds-coordinate-occupy-wall-street-crackdowns/

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November 16th, 2011, 1:45 pm

 

168. 5 dancing shlomos said:

Police State Tactics: Signs Point to a Coordinated National Program to Try and Unoccupy Wall Street and Other Cities

http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2011/11/16/police-state-tactics-signs-point-to-a-coordinated-national-program-to-try-and-unoccupy-wall-street-and-other-cities/

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November 16th, 2011, 1:49 pm

 

169. Humanist said:

“The people want the Assad family,” ….

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=142393958&sc=tw&cc=share

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November 16th, 2011, 1:54 pm

 

170. Khalid Tlass said:

565. Tara said:

“Khaled

I think you are trying to project your dogma as a salafist on the Syrian revolution forgetting that salafists virtually do not exist among the rank of the demonstrators. The FSA goal is to defend the demonstrators and the innocent civilians. They were not engaged in offensive operations against the army. If you think otherwise, you have to prove it and please don’t quote SANA or Aldoonya.”

I am extremely hurt by this statement TARA. Yes, I am a Salafi and that is my religious belief. I fully support offensive atrmed actions against loyalist Army, what I said was FSA must restrain themslevs these 4 days and again go on the offensive later.

Offensive actions are necessary to protect civilians sometimes, unfortunately both GHUFRAN and TARA dont realize that.

And GHUFRAN, don’t be rejoicing too soon smarty. The reason I have appeared a bit more moderate, restrained and polite these last 3 days is becoz I feel WE are in a strong position now and we have the upper hand. I am no longer frustrated and angry, which is why my posts have become more moderate and polite. I am very forgiving and kind when I feel happy. I am very happy with AL’s strictness with Junior, hence I decided to be a little less aggressive, its strange that Ghufran and Tara comprehended it as a change of sides or a change of heart.

And btw “Salafi” is not a dirty word, its said that many ppl use it like that. Amd we are “Salafi” not “SalafIST”, we are not an “ism”, we are the muqallideen of the Salafus Saleheen.

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November 16th, 2011, 2:22 pm

 

171. Dale Andersen said:

Memo To: KHALID TLASS

RE: “…The reason I have appeared a bit more moderate, restrained and polite these last 3 days is becoz I feel WE are in a strong position now…”

I thought the reason you’re being so restrained and polite is they threatened to boot your salafi butt off SC…

http://playwrighter.blogspot.com/2011/04/arab-news-fox-news-style.html

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November 16th, 2011, 2:41 pm

 

172. Amir in Tel Aviv said:

Tlass

In your restrained forgiving and polite mode, you sound like a Yeshiva boy.
.

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November 16th, 2011, 3:03 pm

 

173. Tara said:

Khaled

You submitted the same post three times already. There is no need for this. My Islam is different than yours. My Sunni Islam values people for being people and does not look for anything else. Religion is a private matter defined by how you interpret God and that is that. I do not appreciate your hatred to shiaa or christians and I also do not agree with your call for leveling Qurdaha. I don’t think you have anything in common with the revolutionists or with me. I,Tara the revolutionist, even happen to have a deep affection to a christian friend of mine who is even a regime supporter. I am sorry to be blunt.

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November 16th, 2011, 3:03 pm

 

174. jad said:

اعلنت واشنطن أن ” التحركات “العنيفة” للمعارضة السورية تصب في مصلحة النظام السوري”.

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November 16th, 2011, 3:04 pm

 

175. jad said:

تصديقا لما كشفه ضابط في “الجيش السوري الحر” أول أمس لـ”الحقيقة” حول إنشاء ” مجلس عسكري”:.

الأسعد ورفاقه يؤسسون “مجلسا عسكريا” بمساعدة المخابرات التركية والملحقية العسكرية الأميركية في أنقرا، ويشرّع طلب المساعدة حتى من إسرائيل!؟

دمشق ، أنقرا ، الحقيقة ( خاص من محرر الشؤون العسكرية : حسين كردي) : تصديقا لما كان كشفه لـ”الحقيقة” أول أمس الأحد أحد الضباط العاملين مع العميل الأميركي ـ التركي رياض الأسعد ، رئيس ما يسمى بـ”الجيش السوري الحر”، أعلن المذكور مساء أمس الثلاثاء تأسيس “مجلس العسكري” من تسعة من الضابط المنشقين / الفارين ( 5 برتبة عقيد و 3 برتبة مقدم وواحد برتبة رائد) بهدف “حكم سوريا عسكريا عند سقوط النظام” . وكان من الملاحظ أن جميعهم من فئة الضباط القادة ( رائد ، مقدم ، عقيد) ، وليس فيهم أي ضابط من فئة الأمراء ( عميد وما فوق) ، وهو ما يؤكد هزال وتواضع عدد الضباط المنشقين / الفارين ومستوياتهم الوظيفية ( جميعهم ضباط فنيون وإداريون وليس فيهم ضابط ميداني واحد ، علما بأن الجيش السوري يضم أكثر من خمسة آلاف ضابط برتبة عقيد ، وما يفوق هذا العدد من حملة رتبة مقدم )! . وجاء في البيان / اللائحة التنظيمية الصادر عن” المجلس” المعلن عنه أن من مهماته “إسقاط النظام” و “ممارسة مهمة لجنة العفو المنصوص عنها في القوانين النافذة بالنسبة للأحكام الصادرة عن القضاء العسكري كافة “، و “الإتصال مع الحكومات الأجنبية من حكومات أو منظمات أو أفراد أو جهات عسكرية داخل الأراضي السورية أو خارجها” ! ولعل أغرب ما في البيان / اللائحة التنظيمية هو أنه أمر “كافة الجهات الحكومية والسياسية” بأن “تتعاون مع الجيش السوري الحر وأن تنفذ ما يصدر عنه من قرارات”، وهو ما يعني أن على جميع القوى السياسية والحزبية في سوريا الخضوع لأوامره ، ومن لا يرضخ لذلك تنفذ بحقه عقوبة الإعدام / الاغتيال السياسي ، على اعتبار أنه نصّب نفسه حاكما عسكريا لسوريا بموجب القوانين العسكرية النافذة!
لكن أغرب ما ورد في البيان ، من وجهة نظر حقوقية ، وحسب مرجع حقوقي ، هو أن ” المجلس العسكري” يعترف بأن مرجعيته القانونية هي ” القوانين النافذة” ، أي القوانين العسكرية والمدنية المعمول بها في سوريا الآن ، والتي تحكم عمليا بالإعدام على رياض أسعد ورفاقه أنفسهم بتهمة “الخيانة الوطنية” و “حمل السلاح ضد الدولة” .. إلخ ! هذا فضلا عن تهمة ” التجسس والاتصال بقوى أجنبيةّ” ، حيث يعترف “المجلس العسكري” بأنه يتصل بجهات أجنبية مدنية وعسكرية لطلب المساعدة ، مع الإشارة إلى أنه لم يستثن حتى إسرائيل من طلب المساعدة ، وهو ما يجعل منه نسخة طبق الأصل عن “جيش لبنان الجنوبي” ( الجيش اللحدي) الذي أسسته إسرائيل في جنوب لبنان برئاسة سعد حداد ثم أنطوان لحد قبل أن يقضى عليه ويفر عناصره إلى إسرائيل عند تحرير لبنان ربيع العام 2000!
يشار أخيرا إلى أن ضابطا في ” الجيش” المذكور ،يعمل إلى جانب رياض الأسعد ،كان كشف أول أمس لمراسلة “الحقيقة” في استانبول عن أن رياض الأسعد ناقش مع الملحقية العسكرية الأميركية في أنقرا مسألة تأسيس” مجلس عسكري” و طلب المساعدة العسكرية من الولايات المتحدة وتركيا ، وجمع معلومات عن أسرار الجيش السوري لصالح الجهتنين المذكورتين!

Couple more interesting stories:

فضيحة غير مسبوقة في قرار الاتحاد الأوربي فرض عقوبات اقتصادية جديدة على سوريا. القرار يتضمن أسماء أشخاص سوريين لا وجود لهم في الوظائف التي ذكرها ، ومصدر يكشف مصدر هذه المعلومات !؟

افتتاح “بورصة” المعارضة السورية اليوم في القاهرة لتوزيع الأسهم والأنصبة على المساهمين القدامى والجدد. الجامعة والقوى الدولية تسعى لتخليق تكوين سياسي أوسع تمثيلا من ّالمجلس الوطني” يستطيع طلب التدخل الدولي، وغليون يرفض المشاركة مع أحد!؟

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November 16th, 2011, 3:08 pm

 

176. majedkhaldoun said:

From one date to another date. 3 more days,immidiate halt to military action,the regim will not follow.20 more dead today.

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November 16th, 2011, 3:12 pm

 

177. jad said:

Huh!? What went wrong with all the threats? Didn’t Syria accept those 500 inspections even before the last meeting? so confusing!

حمد بن جاسم : الجامعة العربية سترسل مراقبين الى سوريا خلال ثلاثة ايام اذا وافقت دمشق على خطة عمل الجامعة، مشيرا الى “اننا اقتربنا من نهاية طريق الدبلوماسية العربية بشأن سوريا”.
إلى ذلك نقلت وسائل اعلام أن الجامعة فوضت الأمين العام الاستعانة بمراقبين من دول عربية واسلامية وصديقة والتشاور معه لتعيين رئيس لبعثة المراقبين إلى سوريا

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November 16th, 2011, 3:17 pm

 

178. jad said:

Good news:
Dr. Rafah Nashed is free
الدكتورة رفاه ناشد …… حرة وخارج زنازينهم

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November 16th, 2011, 3:22 pm

 

179. jad said:

هل هناك تغير ما؟ حتى قرار الجامعة لم يأتي مثل كل التهديدات التي سبقته من كل الأطراف، شيء ما حصل و واشنطن تقول ان التحركات العنيفة للمعارضة السورية تخدم النظام…..اليوم

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November 16th, 2011, 3:28 pm

 

180. Khalid Tlass said:

So, Tara, why have you suddenly become so critical about me ?

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November 16th, 2011, 3:40 pm

 

181. Tara said:

16 November 2011 Last updated at 15:43 ET 
Syria: Arab League gives deadline to end ‘repression’
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15762260

The Arab League has given Syria three days to “stop the bloody repression” of protesters and allow in teams of observers.

Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim al-Thani said Syria faced sanctions if it did not co-operate.

At a meeting of the Arab League in Morocco, he said diplomatic efforts were “close to the end of the road”.

As the meeting took place, angry crowds in Damascus attacked the embassies of Morocco and the United Arab Emirates.

Earlier, in another sign of Syria’s increasing international isolation, France said it was withdrawing its ambassador.

Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told parliament: “There has been renewed violence in Syria, which has led me to close our consular offices in Aleppo and in Latakia as well as our cultural institutes and to recall our ambassador to Paris.”

As diplomatic pressure increases on Damascus, the situation on the ground is deteriorating as well.

Last night, soldiers who defected from the Syrian army mounted an attack on an intelligence base north of Damascus. It was the most significant attack so far by defectors and was remarkable for being against such a high-profile target so close to the capital.

More and more clashes are being reported between the regular army and opponents who now call themselves the Free Syrian Army.

That raises the spectre of this turning into a full-scale civil war.

But Syria has shown little sign of compromise. At today’s meeting here in Morocco, Arab ministers are expected to confirm Syria’s suspension from the Arab League and possibly impose new measures.

Syria’s chair at the meeting is empty after Damascus angrily decided to boycott the meeting. Attitudes are hardening on all sides.

Sheikh Hamad, asked if the Arab League proposal was a last-ditch attempt at diplomacy, told a news conference in Morocco: “We do not want to talk about a last-ditch attempt because I do not want this to sound like a warning.

“What I can say is that we are close to the end of the road as far as the (Arab League’s) efforts on this front are concerned.”

The statement came hours after reports that rebel Syrian troops had attacked a major military base near Damascus.

Turkey, although not a member of the Arab League, sent its Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to a Turkish-Arab co-operation forum on the fringes of the league’s meeting in Rabat.

Turkey, which shares a long border with Syria, has been increasingly critical of President Bashar al-Assad’s repression of anti-government protests.

In a joint statement, they demanded “urgent measures… to ensure the protection of civilians” and declared they were against “all foreign intervention in Syria”.

Last weekend the Arab League voted to suspend Syria’s membership after it failed to honour the terms of an Arab League peace plan.

The plan involved Syria withdrawing tanks from restive cities, stopping attacks on protesters and engaging in dialogue with the opposition within two weeks.

But since then violence across Syria has escalated.

Soldiers killed
Syrian activists say defected soldiers known as the Free Syrian Army launched a pre-dawn attack on the notorious Air Force Intelligence building in the Damascus suburb of Harasta.

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Unconfirmed reports said six government soldiers were killed.

Correspondents says such an attack would be the highest profile operation so far by renegade troops.

The Commander of the Free Syrian Army, Ryad al-Asa’ad, who is based in Turkey, told the BBC Arabic Service the international community had let them down in their fight against the regime.

“At the moment no country in the world has helped,” he said.

“All of them, every country has refused. Even Turkey has never offered us even one bullet and has even completely banned operations on the border, or on the road to the border. On the other hand, we are from inside Syria, we work inside Syria and the weapons are from Syria.”

He said defections were increasing within the Syrian army.

“Thank God, there is a big number [of defectors] the number increases daily. Now, over the past 10 days, defections have been increasing in a very very big way, even officers, a great number are defecting.”

Meanwhile, anti-government activists reported further bloodshed across Syria on Wednesday.

The Local Co-ordination Committees (LCC) said 11 people had been killed in Homs, seven in Idlib and one each in Daraa and the suburbs of Damascus.

The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on its Facebook page that three defectors and a civilian were shot dead in Keferzita, Hama province.

Some 376 people had been killed since the announcement of the Arab League initiative on 2 November, the LCC said.

The UN says more than 3,500 people have died since protests started in March. Syrian authorities blame the violence on armed gangs and militants.

The Syrian government has severely restricted access for foreign journalists, and reports are difficult to verify.

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November 16th, 2011, 3:57 pm

 

182. Tara said:

Khaled

I am sorry. I am being honest. I just do not agree with hatred whether it comes from Islamophobes, or so called Islamic. You know very well that is how the Sunnis are raised in Syria.

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November 16th, 2011, 4:03 pm

 

183. Tara said:

The AL’s decision is very disappointing. Hamad said 3 more days then economic sanctions. Is that all? Are we dealing with another paper tiger?

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November 16th, 2011, 4:12 pm

 

184. ss said:

171. Tara said: Khaled “I also do not agree with your call for leveling Qurdaha. I don’t think you have anything in common with the revolutionists or with me. I,Tara the revolutionist, even happen to have a deep affection to a christian friend of mine who is even a regime supporter. I am sorry to be blunt”

You represent yourself then, because the majority behind this so called fake revolution is people like Khaled Tlass; they had an extremely radical view, they want to wipe out all sectors, and he admitted earlier of being Salafi. Mr. Galion is sort of cleaner face and mind and he represents the dirty majority of MB in his council.

You are trying your best 24/7 to present this revolution as a bride but unforrtunately this bride has been using SATOOR to behead and cut people into peices.

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November 16th, 2011, 4:18 pm

 

185. Khalid Tlass said:

We do not depend on the AL or Turkey or NATO, we should depend on our own guns, at this moment, we are pissing on their dead bodies in Dara’a. Congratulations to the FSA, pursue them relentlessly.

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November 16th, 2011, 4:23 pm

 

186. Khalid Tlass said:

180. TARA said :

“You know very well that is how the Sunnis are raised in Syria”.

And that is exactly why Sunnis are finding themselves in the position they are in today.

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November 16th, 2011, 4:28 pm

 

187. Darryl said:

90. KHALID TLASS said:

“I am no longer frustrated and angry, which is why my posts have become more moderate and polite. I am very forgiving and kind when I am strong.”

You see My friend Khalid, I was right about you. You are a very kind pussy cat in a paper tiger suit, Leopards can’t change their spots. The other reason your post improved for a bit was due to all that high energy in the rich tasting Braford beef you ate for Eid Al-AdHa Al-Mubarak.

Out of curiosity, how long is your beard? Is it the right length for admission to heaven?

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November 16th, 2011, 5:06 pm

 

188. bronco said:

MajedAlkaldoon

Any news in the recognition of the SNC by the AL that you predicted?

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November 16th, 2011, 5:25 pm

 

189. bronco said:

181. Tara

Disappointed? It seems my predictions are closer than yours…
Thank God, the AL is still not a lost case and Syria could still be saved from civil war and the likes of Khaled Tlass.

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November 16th, 2011, 5:30 pm

 

190. zoo said:

Syria: Communication and Satellite Devices were seized with the Terrorist Groups
(Dp-news – Sana) DAMASCUS- The Syrian authorities confiscated a highly advanced communication means and satellite devices. The devices were found with the armed terrorist groups and members that are working with the seditious and instigative TV channels that are targeting Syria.

The first group of the confiscated devices included handheld two-way simplex system communication devices operating in the very high and ultrahigh frequency (VHF/UHF) ranges.
The devices were confiscated in a number of tension areas as they were used to ensure communication between the terrorists and criminals and organize the course of their movement to carry out attacks against the law enforcement personnel.
The devices operate by wireless scanning of the frequency ranges to pick up the calls of the security and law enforcement forces and monitor the movement of their personnel.

The second group included Thuraya satellite mobile phone sets which were used for satellite communication among the terrorists and those who work with them and between them and the misleading satellite TV channels and the external sides.
SIM cards for the Thuraya phones, charged through Arab and foreign providers, were used by the terrorists to avoid the monitoring of the authorities.
With the development of the crisis, various advanced generations of these devices appeared, such as Thuraya mobile phones powered by AB internet, which allows the possibility of connecting these devices to the internet via computer and transmitting text documents, photos and videos via satellite at high speed.
These devices were illegally infiltrated across the border from Arab countries and foreign developed countries and parties, on top the U.S.A. and Israel.
The information found in these devices included the phone numbers of all the misleading satellite channels- al-Jazeera, al-Arabiya, BBC, France 24 and others- and the phone numbers of Arab and foreign personalities involved in the events, in addition to tendentious and biased messages stored in advance.

The third group included Iridium satellite devices operated by the U.S. military satellite communication network made up of 66 satellites covering the globe which provides audio and data transfer services of different advanced generations. The devices were used by the terrorists and agents during the events.
The group also comprised Iridium satellite phone accessories, which are antenna placed on the vehicle’s surface and connected to a phone inside the car via a cable since most satellite communication devices need Line-of -Sight between the phone and the satellite.

The fourth group included the global Inmarsat mobile communication satellite systems which operate by directing concentrated radiations towards certain points on the earth to provide voice and digital calls, videos and internet services with high accuracy and speed.
Such systems are used by the UN organizations and the embassies in Syria. There has been an increase in the number of these systems which are being imported to Qatar in unusual quantities before and during the events, which raised several question marks.

The fifth group seized a bulk which, after technical examination, was found to be a kind of an Israeli-made antenna operating on very special frequency ranges for satellite communication, which is part of an integrated satellite communication system using a network of US military satellites to provide high speed internet services to transfer data.
Unlike the previously mentioned communication systems, these systems are not commercially marketed as they require the authorization and approval of the Ministry of Defense in the manufacturing countries. The existence of these devices in Syria indicates the clear involvement of these countries, particularly that diplomats and politicians from these countries have announced intention to back the terrorists in Syria with advanced internet and communication systems.

The sixth group included radios with advanced audio players that were used by the armed terrorist groups and saboteurs to create chaos and confusion. These devices store audio clips including recorded slogans and sounds to be replayed during the gatherings near the mosques and in the crowded markets to film them as anti-government protests.

Most of these equipment and advanced devices are illegal and prohibited since they have been used without getting license from the General Telecommunications Establishment. The use of these systems and devices violate the regulating rules and legislations which guarantee that such use must not affect the security of Syria or undermine the state’s position and those responsible for possessing, importing and illegally investing them should be held accountable, as it is the case in any country in the world.
These devices can be classified, according to the circumstances Syria is going through, the places where they were seized, the sides which communicated through them and the purposes for which they were used to transfer information, fabricate events and plot to undermine the country’s position and security, as falling under the crime of espionage and treason.

The high cost of the seized satellite systems in terms of the equipment or the subscription confirms the big financial support provided to the terrorist and criminal groups and the involvement of some instigative satellite channels in providing these equipment.
Cellular coverage on the borders with neighboring countries has also been exploited by the terrorist groups to ensure cell phone calls and internet services benefiting from the coverage of neighboring countries, which reached between 30 and 50 km in a flagrant violation of agreements signed between Syria and these countries which set the limits of the overlapping coverage area between 1 and 3 km.
This violation can be put within the plan of some of these countries in supporting the terrorists in Syria during the events through raising the signal levels to maximum limits.

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November 16th, 2011, 5:45 pm

 

191. jad said:

Bronco,
Don’t you think that there is some connection between Washington announcement and the AL decision not to escalate, besides, it’s only 3 days before the AL apply the sanctions, no?

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November 16th, 2011, 5:47 pm

 

192. Tara said:

Bronco

Very!

Yes, your prediction is closer than mine. I am not measuring up it looks like.

Justice must be served Bronco. It hasn’t yet, but people need to make no mistake about it. With or without the AL, with or without any help, Syrians are not going to stop until Bashar is toppled and until they get their freedom and dignity. No matter at what cost.

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November 16th, 2011, 5:47 pm

 

193. zoo said:

Yemen: Arab Leagues resolution on Syria illegal

16/11/2011

By Mohammed Jumeh
London, Asharq al-Awsat- Ahmad al-Sufi, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh Media secretary has categorically rejected recalling Yemen’s ambassador to Syria.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, al-Sufi said, “We will not recall our ambassador to Syria, because the resolution was hasty and premeditated, and there was no sufficient opportunity to study it, or scope for a political settlement for the Syrian crisis. Moreover, Syria was not given the opportunity to explain its stance toward the Arab initiative and the political crisis through which it is going. This resolution is illegal, because the freezing of the membership of a country is a resolution that has to be adopted at the level of summit, and not at the level of foreign ministers.”

Regarding the reasons of Yemen’s objections to the Arab League resolution, Al-Sufi told Asharq Al-Awsat,”There is a clear bias in favour of the Syrian opposition at the expense of the Syrian Government. The Arab League has behaved as if it is a guardian of the Syrian opposition.”

The Yemeni Media secretary went on to say that, “it is impossible to put the requirements of the resolutions, which are based on exaggerating the Syrian crisis, before Syria’s status, prestige, and role in the region. If Syria does not carry out some of the requirements of the Arab initiative, supporting and standing by it at such a time still is a strategic option, not only for Yemen, but also for anyone who knows that Syria is in the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict, which is required today to be turned into an Arab-Arab conflict.”

Al-Sufi concluded by saying, “this is the second gravest resolution adopted by the Arab League that contradicts the spirit of its charter. The first decision was about the Libyan issue, when the Arab League paved the way for NATO to launch its attack on Libya. Moreover this resolution to suspend Syria’s membership of the Arab League is in response to the whims of a tendency that not only manages the Arab League, but also manages the entire region by means of political money.”

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November 16th, 2011, 5:48 pm

 

194. bronco said:

Tara,

“No matter at what cost”.

Sorry, I disagree. Some wars stopped because one was stronger than the others, some other wars stops when both realize they will be both losers. In the case of Syria, none of the opposition or the regime can win on short term. They can go on killing each others like they did in Lebanon for 15 years and destroy the country. If they have some sense, courage and they care about the Syrian more about getting the power, they must agree on a ceasefire and negotiate for the sake of the people. The AL is giving them this opportunity. It would be foolish and criminal to ignore it and seek full victory.
When Khomeini stopped the deadly war with Iraq, it was a bitter pill to take but he did it to save more lives.

By being extremist , you are condoning more death, just to reach a bitter victory, that will look more like a defeat.

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November 16th, 2011, 6:02 pm

 

195. jad said:

مشروعان من أجل سورية
شبلي شمايل

تحاول الديماغوجية الإعلامية الحمدو-قرضاوية أن تفرض على الشعب السوري صورة سورية الغد من الألف إلى الياء. ويظن الحمدان (عازل أبيه وشيخ التطبيع) أن بإمكان شبه الجزيرة القطرية أن توجه الثورات العربية لبر الأمان الأمريكي-التركي، خاصة بعد أن سخر مركز الجزيرة للدراسات الاستراتيجية جهوده لتلميع أوغلو والعثمانية الجديدة، وتحولت الجزيرة إلى بوق ناعق للإسلام السياسي الأمريكي الميول. يظن هذان التابعان أن بإمكانهما إنتاج توابع على نمط فيلم (سيريانا)، أي صناعة المعارضة السورية بتنقيط وبدون تنقيط، بزعامة أو بدون زعامة، بتلميع القذارات وتحقير النضالات. لأن الثورة كما هو معروف حالة هيجان يمكن لأي منبر إعلامي مركز أن يؤثر في عواطف وانفعالات قسم منها، وتصبح هذه الإنفعالات جياشة ومرتبة ومهندسة حسب الطلب عندما يصل مرتبا شهريا لجماعات سحقتها السلطة البعثية الأمنية وحولتها لمجرد كائنات مسموح لها بالتواجد الجغرافي غير البشري. مشروع جان فوستر دالاس لاستعمال الدين وسيلة للاندماج في الهيمنة الأمريكية يسير على قدم وساق.. يجب أسلمة الثورات العربية وأمركتها لضمان المصالح الإستراتيجية الأساس للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية في العقود القادمة.
في وقت يدعي فيه حمد بن جاسم أنه يتوسط للمبادرة العربية، تعبئة لا سابق لها في الجزيرة ضد التهدئة، يعطى عراب العدوان الثلاثي برهان غليون خطبة عصماء لم تعطها الجزيرة حتى لتسيفي ليفني. لم تقبل جميلة حمد بن ثامر أن تعلّق على الخبر وترك الأمر إلى صحفية من الدرجة الطائعة (ليلى الشايبة). ويعلن غليون وجه مجلسه البشع: نعم لكل الإحتمالات دون استثناء، نعم للإنشقاقات في الجيش، نعم للتدويل والتدخل، عاشت سورية حرة وأبية ..
أخيرا كشف برهان غليون عن المستور، وليس كما قال لكل من كان يسأله إلى أين أنت ذاهب (الجواب طبعا حتى لا يذهب المجلس لاستقدام الأجنبي أنا الضمانة الوحيدة!!!)…
صدق من قال هناك مشروعان ومن الصعب أن يلتقيا لأنهما في لحظة قادمة سيصطدمان بالضرورة: مشروع وطني ديمقراطي يعتمد على قدرات الشعب وعلى النضال الشعبي الثوري لإسقاط الدكتاتورية وبناء نظام وطني ديمقراطي مدني تعددي وتداولي. ومشروع أسميه بكل أريحية (جماعة العراق) ليس فقط لأنه يقتبس من المثل العراقي أمثولته منذ النصف الثاني لعام 2003. بل لأنه تاريخيا بدأ مع عراق صدام وانتهى بعراق بريمر.
في 1978 التقى رياض الترك مبعوثا من قبل طه ياسين رمضان لتكوين جبهة واسعة لإسقاط الدكتاتور حافظ الأسد. على أثر ذلك جرى تكليف أحمد محفل من قيادة ما يسمى الحزب الشيوعي-المكتب السياسي بالتنسيق مع النظام العراقي من باريس. في هذا الوقت، شعر الزعيم الوطني الكبير أكرم الحوراني بأن السلطات العراقية تدخل شحنات السلاح والمال بكثافة إلى سورية ويمكن أن يؤدي ذلك لهدم مدينته حماه لأن الطليعة المقاتلة للإخوان المسلمين كانت تعتبر حماه عاصمتها، فطلب الذهاب إلى باريس بحجة العلاج. حركة الأخوان المسلمين كانت مكروهة في الغرب، فطلب مكتب ياسر عرفات من مثقف شاب اسمه برهان غليون تلميع صورة الإخوان والعراق في الإعلام مقابل راتب شهري (من المعروف أن برهان غليون عاش في فرنسا 15 عاما بدون عمل أو مرتب إلى حين توظف في السوربون وأن مرتبه الشهري كان من مصاريف أبو عمار ولدى أبو اللطف في ملفات منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية في تونس ما يثبت ما نقول). فكتب برهان غليون عدة مقالات للدفاع عن الطليعة المقاتلة والهجوم على التظام الطائفي السوري معظمها باسماء مستعارة (منها مقالته الشهيرة الموقعة باسم أ. حموي التي يعتبر فيها الطليعة المقاتلة أحسن ما أنجبت سورية منذ عقود. والمنشورة بالفرنسي وأعيدت بالعربي في مجلة المنبر الموالية للعراق). كانت الحرب المسعورة على أشدها خاصة وأن السادات أعطى للإخوان ما يريدون في القاهرة لإصدار كتب ومجلات مثل الاعتصام والدعوة لكي يخوضوا حربا طائفية مفضوحة ضد دكتاتورية الأسد (كتاب النصيرية حركة هدامة، النصيريون القتلة، رأي علماء الأمة في النصيرية…)
تشكل وقتذاك هيكلان: التجمع الوطني الديمقراطي، كقوة داخلية تعتمد على الشعب وترفض التحالف مع دكتاتورية صدام حسين لإسقاط حافظ الأسد (أهم شخصيات هذا التوجه الفقيد جمال الأتاسي) والتحالف من أجل تحرير سورية في بغداد (أهم عناصره حركة الإخوان المسلمين وحزب البعث العراقي).
في فرنسا انقسم السوريون بين مؤيد للتجمع الوطني الديمقراطي (منذر إسبر، فاروق سبع الليل، هيثم مناع) ومؤيد للتحالف (عدنان بدر، بشار العيسى، برهان غليون). (كل هذه المعلومات مأخوذة من موقع الرأي في عامه الأول في نقاشات حدثت بين سوريي فرنسا)..
مات مشروع التدخل الخارجي مع سحق الإخوان واعتقال الحركة الوطنية السياسية بالمعية. 20 ألف معتقل سياسي عشية مجزرة حماه طبعا بعد مجازر في جسر الشغور وإدلب وحلي وتدمر إلخ. انتصرت الدكتاتورية عسكريا على الطليعة المقاتلة ودفع الشعب السوري الثمن 30 عاما عدا ونقدا.
اليوم الصورة تتكرر، رياض الشقفة من قيادة الطليعة المقاتلة المتبقية على قيد الحياة، 15 من أعضاء المجلس الوطني أبناء طليعة مقاتلة أو أبناء أعضاء أخوان مسلمين، عدنان العرعور من ضحايا حماه، برهان غليون من الذين خسروا الرهان على العراق…
منذ عادت فكرة التدخل الأجنبي تبناها أشخاص يجمع قسم كبير منهم صفة أساسية: تحطيم دكتاتورية آل الأسد عمرهم وحياتهم وعائلاتهم: أصلان عبد الكريم: 17 سنة سجن، 5 سنين ملاحقة، بدون عمل، بدون عائلة… رياض الترك: 18 سنة سجن، ثم سنة بشارية، عزلة تامة عن العالم، ملاحقة ثلاث سنوات، اعتقال في عدة عهود.. صاحب نظرية الصفر الاستعماري، البيانوني: ملاحقة وسجن ومنفى أربعين سنة، زعيم تنظيم في المنفى، صافح الغادري وخدام وصدام والشيطان للخلاص من آل الأسد…
هذه العينة الأولى، لكن هناك أشخاص لم يناضلوا يوما، ويعيشون بمرتبات خيالية من المؤسسات الأمريكية، حديثي العهد بالثورة والنعمة، ومقبلي أيادي الشيوخ والأمراء. صعدوا للسطح بقدرة الحرة والجزيرة والعربية بدون أي رصيد نضالي. هناك أيضا أبناء الإخوان المسلمين من الجيل الثاني الذين يعتبرون أن فشل الأهل لأنهم راهنوا على الخارج العربي (صدام حسين) ولم يراهنوا على من يملك 90% من الأوراق في عالم اليوم (الحكومة الأمريكية!).
كل هؤلاء يجتمعون اليوم، في المجلس الوطني السوري. وكما قلت في مقالة سابقة، العائلات التي دفع بعضها 48 شهيدا (مثل عشيرة الحريري في حوران) أو عائلات أساسية دفعت لوحدها 300 شهيد (الأبازيد والأكراد والمسالمة والزعبي والعودات والدواعلة) لا يوجد أثر لها في المجلس “غير” الوطني لأن هذا المجلس كما قال أحدهم ليس لتمثيل الشعب بل للتمثيل على الشعب. وما هو صحيح في درعا صحيح في دير الزور وحماه وريف دمشق إلخ.
في الطرف الآخر، أسماء أمضت عمرها في السجن، تحطم مستقبلها وحياتها، لكنها ترفض أن تجعل من مأساتها الشخصية برنامج انتقام من الوطن يتغلف بثوب الإنتقام من السلطة. لهذا فهي تعض على الجرح وتشد أزر النضال السلمي وتتمسك بوحدة الشعب ووحدة الجيش ووحدة الوطن في سورية ديمقراطية مدنية تعددية قوية. هؤلاء يجري اليوم محاولة تشويه صورتهم عبر الإعلام الحمدي والأحمدي والسعودي لأنهم يرفضوا أن يكون الوطن مطية لحرب إقليمية أو طائفية ويرفضون أن تأتي طائرات الناتو لتحطم الجيش السوري والبنية التحتية في سورية كما فعلت في ليبيا والعراق.. هؤلاء أسماء مطلوب رأسها للحرق والعمالة للسلطة وتهم إلحاد هنا وتخاذل هناك..
دفعوا الفاتورة عاليا، لكنهم يريدون سورية كريمة ومواطن كريم وديمقراطية حقيقية لا ديمقراطية خليجية تواجه عبادة بغل بعبادة بغل آخر واستبدال التحالف مع الإيراني بالتحالف مع الخليجي التركي وشبيحة السلطة بشبيحة المال الذي يقتل على الهوية: إحفظوا الأسماء حتى لا تصبح ممثلة فورد فاونديشن ممثلة للشعب السوري: عبد المجيد منجونة، فاتح جاموس، هيثم مناع، عبد العزيز الخير، حسن عبد العظيم، رجاء الناصر، محمود المرعي، عارف دليلة، ميشيل كيلو وقيادة الحركة الكردية السورية في الداخل..
تابعوا الجزيرة والعبرية والوصاليات.. لن تروا الخير وجاموس ومناع… لن تروا من الجمل إلا أذنه.. لأن برنامج هؤلاء الوطني الديمقراطي سيزعزع عروش الخليج وليس فقط عرش الأسد.

http://www.ahewar.org/debat/show.art.asp?aid=282583

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November 16th, 2011, 6:13 pm

 

196. bronco said:

Jad

Sorry, Jad, which Washington announcement?

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November 16th, 2011, 6:27 pm

 

197. ss said:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/sns-rt-us-kuwait-protesttre7af2rl-20111116,0,3850558.story

Reuters

4:34 p.m. CST, November 16, 2011

KUWAIT (Reuters) – Dozens of Kuwaitis briefly stormed Kuwait’s parliament building late on Wednesday as hundreds more demonstrated outside, demanding that Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammad al-Sabah step down, local media and witnesses said.

Hopefully Qatar and Saudi would be next.

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November 16th, 2011, 6:31 pm

 

198. SYRIAN HAMSTER said:

CHANGE

هل هناك تغير ما؟ حتى قرار الجامعة لم يأتي مثل كل التهديدات التي سبقته من كل الأطراف، شيء ما حصل و واشنطن تقول ان التحركات العنيفة للمعارضة السورية تخدم النظام…..اليوم

أخافهم طالب ابرأهيم وأرعبهم وليد المعلم وصدقوا المسيرات العفوية
وخافوأ من أبطال تمزيق الاعلام من فوق السفارات التي من المفروض ان تتمتع بالحماية

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November 16th, 2011, 6:33 pm

 

199. ss said:

http://www.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?eid=136146&cid=21&fromval=1&frid=21&seccatid=23&s1=1

كشفت أوساط سورية وثيقة الاطلاع بأن المسؤولين الأتراك أبلغوا نظراءهم السوريين بأن الأميركيين أعدوا مخططاً لإغتيال الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد.

وفي حديث خاص مع موقع قناة المنار كشفت هذه الأوساط أن المخطط الأمريكي أُطلع عليه السوريون منذ شهر آذار/مارس الماضي من قبل رئيس جهاز المخابرات التركية.

سقوط الأسد مكسب كبير لأميركا

وأضافت المصادر أن مسؤولين في الإدارة الأميركية أيضاً تحدثوا عن أهمية تصفية الأسد، وتابعت: “سبق لأليوت أبرامز، وهو مستشار الأمن القومي الأميركي، أن كتب بتاريخ 24 تشرين أول / نوفمبر في مجلة “فورين بوليسي” متحدثاً عن الاغتيال باعتباره أحد أهم الوسائل الممكنة لنهاية نظام الأسد.”

وقد أشار أبرامز في مقاله “سقوط النظام السوري يعد مكسباً كبيراً للولايات المتحدة.، خصوصاً وان النظام يستضيف حماس وغيرها من الفصائل الفلسطينية، وهو الحليف العربي الوحيد لإيران، ومصدر تسلح حزب الله”، لافتاً إلى أن نظام الأسد كان له دور كبير في مساعدة المناهضين للاحتلال الأميركي في العراق، وانه كان متواطئاً في مقتل العديد من الجنود الأميركيين، وذلك في إشارة إلى الجنود الأميركيين في العراق، وإلى العملية التي استهدفت جنود المارينز في بيروت عام 1983.

سيناريو رقم (2): تصفية الأسد

وقد أكدت الأوساط صحة المعلومات التي تحدث عنها الوزير اللبناني السابق ميشال سماحة في حديثه لبرنامج “بين قوسين” وكشف من خلالها عن وجود مخطط فرنسي- قطري لاغتيال الرئيس الأسد، مضيفة أن مصدر المخطط أميركي، إلا أن التنفيذ سيكون فرنسياً- قطرياً.

ونقلت الأوساط عن وفد أميركي زار سورية أن “الإدارة الأميركية عملت على وضع ثلاث سيناريوهات وأن ما طبّق حتى اليوم هو السيناريو رقم (3) والذي يقضي بتحريك الشارع”، مضيفة أن “هناك سيناريوهين آخرين: رقم (1) عمل عسكري مفاجئ، ورقم (2) يتحدث عن تصفية الرئيس “.

ووصفت المصادر أنه في حال حدوث هكذا سيناريو فإن الأمر سيكون كارثي، وقد تتحول الأوضاع في سورية نحو الحرب الأهلية، معلقة “وقد يكون هذا هو المطلوب”.

ورداً على سؤال حول التكتم السوري حول هذه المعلومات، أفادت الأوساط أن سياسة الإعلام السوري معروفة وان معلومات بهذه الخطورة ستؤدي إلى تخويف الناس وإرعابهم، وهذا ما يتجنبه خطاب الاعلام السوري اليوم.

نورالدين: استهداف سورية استهداف لنهج النظام

من ناحيته، علّق الصحافي اللبناني والخبير في الشؤون التركية د. محمد نورالدين قائلاً إنه من غير المستبعد أن تكون المعلومات صحيحة إذا ما تم نقل المعلومات قبل تاريخ 10 نيسان/أبريل لأن العلاقات بين البلدين حتى ذلك التاريخ كانت ما تزال جيدة، مؤكداً أنه لا يملك معلومات حول الموضوع.

ولفت نور الدين، في حديثه مع موقع المنار، إلى تصريح لوزير الخارجية التركي أحمد داوود أوغلو كان قد أدلى به في لقاء مع صحافيين بتاريخ الخامس من الشهر الجاري توقّع فيه حدوث إنقلاب عسكري داخلي على النظام، وقال أوغلو في تصريحه: ” نحن ناس أيضا من المنطقة… واستخباراتنا قوية جداً”.

وأضاف الخبير في الشؤون التركية بأن الأتراك لديهم هذا التوجه، وهم يسعوون إلى ذلك، ويعملون عليه ليلاً ونهاراً.

“شهدنا تصعيداً في الجامعة العربية، وارتفاعاً في النبرة السياسية وصلت إلى تعليق عضوية سورية وفرض عقوبات اقتصادية عليها…

كل هذا لأن الخيار العسكري لم يعد مطروحاً، لاستحالة الجدوى منه”، يقول د. نورالدين.

واعتبر الصحافي اللبناني ان المرحلة المقبلة هي مرحلة ضغوط سياسية واقتصادية تترافق مع دعم لأي تحركات تهدف لإسقاط النظام من الداخل، موضحاً بان الأتراك عبروا عن ذلك من خلال تصريح وزير خارجيتهم الذي أعلن أن بلاده نسقت مع الجامعة العربية في القرار الذي اتخذته فيما يتعلق بتعليق عضوية سورية وفرض عقوبات عليها، وأنهم مستمرون في التنسيق في كل الخطوات التي ستتخذ لاحقاً فيما يتعلق بالأزمة السورية.

ولفت نور الدين إلى أن موقف العرب يريح الأتراك لأنهم وجدوا شريكاً لهم في عدائهم للنظام في سورية.

وختم: “واضح أن الأزمة غير مرتبطة بالإصلاح… فبعد المواقف العربية والفرنسية والتركية يتضح لنا أن الاستهداف هو استهداف لنهج النظام، واستهداف لكل المنظومة المرتبطة به كإيران وحزب الله، فاسقاط سورية يعني اسقاط كل هذه المنظومة وهذا ليس بالأمر السهل.. إلا إذا طرأت أمور مفاجئة!”

المشهد الاقليمي يحبل بكوابيس حروب

وهنا لا بد من الإشارة أن ثمة من يخالف د. نورالدين في استبعاده لاحتمال أي حرب عسكرية، فيعتبر الصحافي عبد الباري عطوان أن المنطقة اليوم “أمام حرب اقليمية هي الأشرس من نوعها، قد تغيّر خريطة المنطقة الديمغرافية قبل السياسية”، معتبراً أن الهدف من هذه الحرب “تغيير نظامين.. بقيا في منظومة ما يسمى بالممانعة”، في اشارة منه إلى سورية وايران.

وتحت عنوان “انها الحرب زاحفة وبسرعة” كتب عطوان: ” قرار وزراء الخارجية العرب الذي اتخذ على عجل في جلسة طارئة يوم امس الاول يفتح الباب على مصراعيه امام تدخل عسكري خارجي في سورية تحت عنوان حماية الشعب السوري. فالجامعة العربية، وفي السنوات العشرين الماضية بات دورها محصورا في توفير الغطاء العربي، بغض النظر عن شرعيته من عدمه، لمثل هذا التدخل، هذا الدور بدأ في العراق، وبعد ذلك في ليبيا، وبات من المرجح، وفي القريب العاجل ان تكون سورية المحطة الثالثة، والله وحده، ومن ثم امريكا، يعلم من هي الدولة الرابعة.”

الصورة القاتمة نفسها عبر عنها المحلل السياسي اللبناني نصري الصايغ الذي اعتبر أن “المشهد الاقليمي يحبل بكوابيس حروب”، موضحاً أي مشهد سوداوي وأي حروب تنتظرها المنطقة، وكتب تحت عنوان “من أولاً… الثورة السورية ام المقاومة اللبنانية”:

” – حرب أهلية طائفية مذهبية في سوريا.
-حرب استنزاف ضد النظام من قوى مسلحة محمية إقليمياً ومسلحة دولياً.
- حروب سياسية قد تفضي إلى نوع من التدخل الأمني/ العسكري/ مصحوب بحصار اقتصادي.
-انتقال الحرب من الداخل السوري إلى محيطه الاقليمي: لبنان مرشح لذلك جنوبا وشمالا، حيث تحاسب قوات الطوارئ الدولية، على ذمة دولها الداعمة للتدخل في سوريا.
- توسع العنف ليصل إلى الخليج الذي تعيش مياهه على صخب التصريحات المناوئة للنووي الشيعي الإيراني.”

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November 16th, 2011, 6:33 pm

 

200. Tara said:

Bronco @ 136

I was taken back by your post.  It remind me with Rami Makhlouf’s interview with Anthony Shadid.  I was quiet all morning because of it.  I don’t think Rami’s views are something to be proud of.  Please tell me I misunderstood. 

“In the eventual (and probable) success of the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt on the 23th november elections, panic about the safety of Israel will grow and there will be a change in the US policies in Syria.”
 

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November 16th, 2011, 6:46 pm

 

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