Five Reasons Why There Will Not Be an Alawite State

Will the Alawites try to establish an Alawite State centered in the Coastal Mountains?

Many opposition figures and journalists insist that the Alawites are planning to fall back to the Alawite Mountains in an attempt to establish a separate state. This is unconvincing. Here are the top five reasons why there will not be an Alawite State.

1. The Alawites have tried to get out of the mountains and into the cities. After the French conquered Syria in 1920, the earliest censuses showed a profound demographic segregation between Sunnis and Alawis. In no town of over 200 people did Alawis and Sunnis live together. The coastal cities of Latakia, Jeble, Tartus and Banyas were Sunni cities with Christian neighborhoods, but no Alawi neighborhoods. Only in Antioch did Alawis live in the city and that city was the capital of a separate autonomous region of Iskandarun, which was ceded to the Turks in 1938. In 1945 only 400 Alawis were registered as inhabitants of Damascus. Ever since the end of the Ottoman era, the Alawis have been streaming out of the mountain region along the coast to live in the cities. The French establishment of an autonomous Alawite state on the coast and their over-recruitment of Alawis into the military sped up this process of urbanization and confessional mixing in the cities of Syria. Assad’s Syria further accelerated the urbanization of the Alawites as they were admitted into universities in large numbers and found jobs in all the ministries and national institutions for the first time.

2. The Assads planned to solve the sectarian problem in Syria by integrating the Alawites into Syria as “Muslims.” They promoted a secular state and tried to suppress any traditions that smacked of a separate “Alawite” identity. No formal Alawi institutions have been established to define Alawi culture, religion or particularism. They did not plan for an Alawi state. On the contrary, the Assads bent over backwards to define Alawis as main-stream Muslims, Bashar married a Sunni Muslim in an attempt at nation-building and to stand as an example of integration.  He claimed to promote a “secular” vision of Syria.

3. Assad has done nothing to lay the groundwork for an Alawite state. There is no national infrastructure in the coastal region to sustain a state: no international airport, no electric power plans, no industry of importance, and nothing on which to build a national economy.

4. No country would recognize the Alawite state.

5. Most importantly, an Alawite state is indefensible. Alawite shabbiha and brigades of special forces may fall back to the Alawite Mountains when Damascus is lost. But how long could they last? As soon as Syria’s Sunni militias unite, as presumably they will, they would make hasty work of any remaining Alawite resistance. Who ever owns Damascus and the central state will own the rest of Syria in short order. They will have the money, they will have legitimacy, and they will have international support. Syria could not survive without the coast. More importantly, it would not accept to do without the coast and the port cities of Tartus and Latakia. All the coastal cities remain majority Sunni to this day.

Aleppo, Abadiin Square: A friend who is taking part in the large demonstrations centered in Abadiin writes:

Today (Sat 21-Jul.) is the second day that the FSA has controlled Salah Al-Deen (Saladin), yesterday there were a few clashes between Assad’s army and teh FSA. Today is more quit with fewer clashes, but there are helicopters hovering in the sky. I have heard that tanks surround the neighborhood. It is the calm the precedes the storm.

Assad forces push into rebel-held Aleppo after fierce clashes in Syria capital – Reuters

….Activists in Aleppo, Syria’s biggest city and a northern commercial hub, said hundreds of families were fleeing residential districts after the military swept into the Saladin district, which had been in rebel hands for two days.

Fighting was also reported in the densely-populated, poor neighborhood of al-Sakhour. “The sound of bombardment has been non-stop since last night. For the first time we feel Aleppo has turned into a battle zone,” a housewife said by phone from the city.

Asef Shawkat: Video of his funeral in Tartus

“Syrians Fleeing Capital Leave Bodies and Bombs Behind”
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR, July 20, 2012, New York Times

“You feel the government is losing control, slowly but surely, every day a little more,” said one 30-year-old construction engineer, declining to give his name because he might go back. “After the assassinations, the people who were saying the system will survive started talking about its collapse.”

If the government manages to reassert control in Damascus in the coming days, then maybe the country will not disintegrate, he said, but he was not optimistic, especially as the hatred deepened between Alawites and Sunnis.

“I think a civil war is coming; you can see it and feel it,” he said, with Alawites talking about their fears of surviving while Sunnis burn with the desire for revenge.

“Eighty percent of the problem is sectarian and maybe 20 percent is about corruption,” said Mohamed al-Jazaeri, a young engineer, explaining his wish for a slow, measured political reform process that is nowhere in sight. “They are going to destroy the country, and they won’t be able to bring it back for another 20 years.”

Is Syria Facing a Yugoslavia-Style Breakup?
Even if the regime loses its grip on growing swaths of territory, the civil war’s sectarian dimension could see it opt to retreat into enclaves controlled by its base of Alawite, Christian and non-Sunni support
By Tony Karon | @tonykaron | July 19, 2012

Kurds

Zaid Benjamin ‏tweets: “A committee to manage Syrian Kurdistan will be announced tomorrow – The Syrian Kurdish National Council.

A Kurdish Journalist writes from Kurdistan:

The liberation of Kurdistan in Syria has started and a few Kurdish cities have been liberated, but unfortunately Arab and western media hasn’t given a lot of coverage to it and I want to do a report about this and I have a few questions if you could answer me I’ll appreciate it…..

1- Why has Arab and Foreign media has ignored the events of Kurdish parts of Syria?
2- Do you think the events of last week in Kurdish parts of Syria has a impact on Syrian Crisis?

Hawar Abdul-Razaq Ali
Journalist and Translater
Rudaw Weekly Paper
Irbil- Iraq

Obeida Nahas tweets “Activists focusing on this issue [Kurdish] have been in constant meetings with Kurdish activists over the past few days working on this.”

Iyad El-Baghdadi ‏@iyad_elbaghdadi tweets: “Kurdish activists assert the Kurdish flag is being raised in north-east #Syria side by side the revolution flag.”

Syria opposition has power struggles of its own
As rebels risk their lives for a new government, some feel overshadowed by exiled dissidents, who the fighters say are out of touch with the real revolution.
By Los Angeles Times Staff, Los Angeles Times, July 20, 2012

As Syrian opposition leaders threw punches at one another early this month in a five-star Cairo hotel, rebel fighters in Idlib province spent hours trying to fight off tanks, armored vehicles and attack helicopters with little more than Kalashnikov rifles.

By nightfall, as the rebels fled shelling that reportedly killed dozens, conference members continued to fight over post-revolution plans.

The conference scuffle laid bare power struggles among Syrians seeking the overthrow of President Bashar Assad, despite a conflict that has moved ever closer to the Syrian leader. On Wednesday, three of his senior military officials were killed in a bombing that struck at the center of the regime’s power. But even as some rebel fighters say they are pushing for a “final battle” others say victory is far off, especially with the opposition still struggling to agree on exactly how to oust Assad and who should lead the way….. “Everyone who says he represents us is a liar, and the proof of this is that they are not adopting the demands of the revolution,” Moaz Shami, an activist in Damascus, the Syrian capital, said via Skype. “They are all politicians trying to climb on our shoulders and on our goals.”

How “Damascus Volcano” erupted in Assad’s stronghold
By Andrew Osborn, LONDON | Fri Jul 20, 2012

(Reuters) – As darkness descended over Damascus last Saturday, few of its 1.7 million residents could have had any inkling that a decisive battle to wrest the city from the grasp of President Bashar al-Assad was about to begin.

Damascus chaos strikes fear in Assad’s Alawite bastion – Reuters

Tartous, like many Alawite areas, is more liberal than Syria’s majority Sunni provinces. Women wear skimpy bathing suits on sandy beaches. Restaurants are stocked with alcohol.

Russia, one of Assad’s last remaining allies, retains its last warm water port in Tartous. These days, few ships go in and out of the walled base since Western states imposed punitive economic sanctions to pressure Assad to leave.

Long-time residents estimate that nearly half of Syria’s entire Alawite population has relocated to Tartous province since the uprising started. Finding an apartment in the city that swelled from 900,000 to 1.2 million inhabitants is now a matter of luck, real estate agents say.

Inside the quiet effort to plan for a post-Assad Syria
By Josh Rogin Friday, July 20, 2012 – Foreign Policy

For the last six months, 40 senior representatives of various Syrian opposition groups have been meeting quietly in Germany under the tutelage of the U.S. Institute for Peace (USIP) to plan for how to set up a post-Assad Syrian government.

The project, which has not directly involved U.S. government officials but was partially funded by the State Department, is gaining increased relevance this month as the violence in Syria spirals out of control and hopes for a peaceful transition of power fade away. The leader of the project, USIP’s Steven Heydemann, an academic expert on Syria, has briefed administration officials on the plan, as well as foreign officials, including on the sidelines of the Friends of Syria meeting in Istanbul last month…

USIP intends to release a report on the project in the coming weeks that will serve as a transition strategy document to be used by the next government. The next phase is to stand up a transition support network “to begin to implement these recommendations about stuff that needs to happen now,” Heydemann said.

In addition to security-sector reform, the group has come up with plans to reform the justice sector and a framework for the role of the armed opposition in a post-Assad Syria. The idea is to preserve those parts of the Syrian state that can be carried over while preparing to reform the parts that can’t. For example, large parts of the Syrian legal system could be preserved.

The group has come up with a few innovative proposals to make the post-Assad transition less chaotic. One example Heydemann cited was the idea of mobile judicial review squads, which could be deployed to do rapid review and release of detainees held by the regime after it falls.

The project has also tried to identify regime personnel who might be able to play an effective role in the immediate phase after Assad falls.

“There’s a very clear understanding of the Syrians in this project that a transition is not sweeping away of the entire political and judicial framework of Syria,” Heydemann said. “We have learned an enormous amount about the participants so that we can actually begin a very crude vetting process.”

The USIP-led project has been careful to avoid working to push the Assad regime from power.

“We have very purposely stayed away from contributing to the direct overthrow of the Assad regime,” Heydemann said. “Our project is called ‘the day after.’ There are other groups working on the day before.”

The project has been funded by the State Department, but also has received funding from the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as Dutch and Norwegian NGOs. USIP partnered with the German Institute of International Affairs, which is why all of the meetings have been held in Berlin.

“This is a situation where too visible a U.S. role would have been deeply counterproductive. It would have given the Assad regime and elements of the opposition an excuse to delegitimize the process,” Heydemann said. …

BAB AL-HAWA, Syria – Agence France-Presse

The rebel fighters had already sacked the buildings making up the Syrian border post, which were bloodstained and riddled with bullets from Thursday’s battle…. They had also helped themselves to the contents of the Turkish lorries that were caught up in the battle as they waited to cross the border.

Villagers loot Syria border post seized by rebels
By Suleiman Al-Khalidi,  BAB AL-HAWA, Syria | Sat Jul 21, 2012

(Reuters) – Rebel fighter Ismail watches approvingly as local villagers loot beer and whisky from the burnt-out duty free shop at Bab al-Hawa, the border post between Syria and Turkey seized from President Bashar al-Assad’s forces on Thursday.

“This is the people’s money; they are taking it back,” he said. “Whoever wants to should take it. There is no shame or wrongdoing.”

Youths on scooters arrived from nearby villages to empty the charred duty free shop and warehouse, whose walls were already daubed with anti-Assad graffiti. “Down with the Iranian agent”, “Leave child killer” and “Free Army forever” the slogans read.

Some rebels had smashed bottles of alcohol to stress their Islamic opposition to drinking – leaving a powerful smell of liquor in the charred duty-free complex.

But others turned a blind eye as local villagers carried off Heineken beer and Chivas whisky along with cartons of tobacco for hubble bubble pipes.

“This is yours. Take it away,” said 23-year-old fighter Sameh, offering up a case of 12 Black Label whisky bottles before being politely turned down.

Syria: Assad regime starts to unravel
Damascus sees fierce fighting as Free Syrian Army fighters take control of key suburbs and crossings into Turkey and Iraq
Luke Harding in Beirut and Ian Black, guardian. Friday 20 July 2012

With the situation changing by the hour, the government’s control over large parts of the country continued to unravel. The FSA said it had captured two border crossings between Syria and Turkey as well as one in Iraq. The regime still holds key cities, at least during the day, but it appears increasingly vulnerable to guerilla raids.

Diplomats revealed that Assad had phoned the head of the UN monitoring mission, General Robert Mood, pledging to implement Kofi Annan’s peace plan shortly after Wednesday’s devastating bomb attack in Damascus, which killed four senior members of his military-security command. The UN says Assad and the rebels have failed to observe a ceasefire….

 

Comments (66)


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51. ann said:

Syrian army retake border post with Iraq – 2012-07-22

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/22/c_131731159.htm

BAGHDAD, July 22 (Xinhua) — The Syrian army retook control of a border crossing point with Iraq’s northern province of Nineveh after being seized by opposition forces the day before, an Iraqi official told Xinhua.

“The Syrian government troops re-controlled al-Yarubiyah border post after early morning clashes with the Syrian opposition forces, ” said Mohammed Eiyada, a member of the municipality of the town of Rabiea, an Iraqi town close to Yarubiyah border post.

“We can see now the Syrian government flag raised again on the main building of the border post,” Eiyada said, adding that the crossing point is now closed.

On Saturday afternoon, Syrian opposition militants took over the crossing point and occupied its buildings after more than 30 minutes of fierce clash with the Syrian government troops.

[...]

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July 22nd, 2012, 7:25 am

 

52. Tara said:

An activist group claims that more than 2,750 people have been killed in Syria so far this month, bringing the death toll since the conflict began to more than 19,000.
….
Opposition sources said fighters from rural areas around Aleppo had been converging on the city of 3 million people near the border with Turkey. The rebel Tawhid Battalion said in a video statement that a battle to “liberate Aleppo” had begun.

In the capital Damascus, Assad’s forces appeared to be retaking territory taken by insurgents earlier in the week, driving them out of the Mezze district, according to residents and opposition activists.

Elite Fourth Division troops were besieging the northern neighbourhood of Barzeh and the sound of tank fire was heard in the district, they said. Helicopter gunships fired machine-guns at the nearby district of Rukn al-Din and Qaboun.

…more
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/22/syria-death-toll-tops-19000

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July 22nd, 2012, 7:28 am

 

53. ann said:

Meet the other paper tiger `natanyahu 8)

Israel to defend against Syrian chaos: PM – 2012-07-22

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/22/c_131731248.htm

JERUSALEM, July 22 (Xinhua) — israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu and defense minister ehud barak on Sunday stressed that israel was monitoring the spiraling civil war in Syria and was prepared to react if chemical or biological weapons reached either rebel forces’ or Lebanese Hezbollah hands.

“We’re closely following what is transpiring there, and are ready for any possible development,” netanyahu said at the opening of the weekly cabinet session, according to a statement sent to Xinhua.

[...]

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July 22nd, 2012, 7:32 am

 

54. Juergen said:

From an SPIEGEL article:

“Damascus stands in the line direction between three cars of the UN observers, a minibus full of Syrians. “We’re going to Damascus. In Syria all is very well,” said the six men. They are Druze, a religious minority that is largely still behind President Bashar al-Assad. The men come from the city of Sweida in the south, where there was previously no demonstrations, and from the Damascus suburb of Dscharamana. Even there it remained quiet until now.

In their view, the world is in order. If you ask them if there were difficulties in Syria, they say, “Only a few, we support the Syrian army, we hope that she will have it all cleaned up soon…”

From the opposite lane the six Druze watch the exodus. Overcrowded vehicles – up to twelve people in a car,bags and suitcases tied to the car roof. But the sight does not shake their view of the world:”These people come to Lebanon for a holiday,” says one of them. The other five remain silent.”

cartoon of a arab artist living in Germany

Arabia: your killers, your executioners, dictators and your cartoons!
( Assad is the 2nd from left)

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=501504709863698&set=a.365230983491072.105740.100000125196235&type=1&theater

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July 22nd, 2012, 7:37 am

 

55. annie said:

Assad Biographer: After Initial Hopes of Reform, Syrian Ruler Has Succumbed to Delusions of Power
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/7/19/assad_biographer_after_initial_hopes_of

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July 22nd, 2012, 8:13 am

 

56. Juergen said:

Der Spiegel managed to get inside Houla and has interviewed witnesses and survivors in Houla for two days.

I will translate the article later and an other one about Rastan.

here are video interviews of Al Houla survivors in Arabic and with german subtitles:

1st interview

Marjiam Al Sayiid

http://video.spiegel.de/flash/1210344_996_560_H264_1400.mp4

Hana Harmout

http://video.spiegel.de/flash/1210360_996_560_H264_1400.mp4

Mohammed Faur Abd Al Rassak

http://video.spiegel.de/flash/1210341_996_560_H264_1400.mp4

Djihad Raslan

http://video.spiegel.de/flash/1210337_996_560_H264_1400.mp4

Malik Bakkur

http://video.spiegel.de/flash/1210348_996_560_H264_1400.mp4

Mohammed Ahmed Bakkur

http://video.spiegel.de/flash/1210349_996_560_H264_1400.mp4

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July 22nd, 2012, 8:24 am

 

57. Juergen said:

I’m Coming Home-Syria-The Return

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July 22nd, 2012, 8:52 am

 

58. ann said:

Syria’s Assad meets his chief of staff, ICRC warns of worsening situation in the capital – 2012-07-22

• Assad met with the army chief of staff as the ICRC says the conditions worsen in the capital.
• Clashes between armed rebels and Syrian troops continued Sunday in Damascus.
• Clashes have also been reported in the northern city of Aleppo.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-07/22/c_131731340.htm

DAMASCUS, July 22 (Xinhua) — Syrian President Bashar al-Assad met Sunday with the army chief of staff, as the International Committee of the Red Cross says the conditions worsen for civilians in the capital Damascus.

The country’s news agency SANA said that Assad met with Gen. Ali Abdullah Dayyoub in Damascus and gave him directives.

SANA, however, spelled no further details about the meeting, but issued the meeting’s photos, which marks the second appearance of Assad after the blast last Wednesday that killed four senior officials of the president’s inner circle.

Meanwhile, the clashes between armed rebels and Syrian troops continued Sunday in a number of neighborhoods in Damascus, namely Razi orchards in al-Mazzeh neighborhood and northwestern district of Barza.

The capital’s battles have been raging on since last Sunday, with Syrian troops flushing out rebels from districts, in which they have been routed in order to wobble the regime grip in the capital.

Clashes have also been reported in the northern city of Aleppo, where rebels announced the commencement of the operation to “free the city from government troops.”

Meantime, Syria’s state media said the government troops in Aleppo confronted the armed groups, adding that many of the armed men were killed, others rounded up and the rest fled into Turkey.

The state TV denied what some Arab TVs are broadcasting about the security situation in Aleppo.

[...]

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July 22nd, 2012, 10:05 am

 

59. Aldendeshe said:

“…..US Writing New Syrian Constitution – “Tutoring” the SNC For Syria Take Over – …..”

SNC Takeover means bloody Civil War in Syria. Syrians will not accept foreign/ Zionist paid and appointed mercenaries to lead them now. They need fairly elected, legitimate leaders, not foreign appointed puppets. They will not accept the Egyptian model either that foreigners are attempting a ploy at to cheat Syrians from fair rule as they did in Egypt.

“….US Writing New Syrian Constitution…”

Any Constitution for new Syria will require prior discussions and public debates by all Syrians and 2-3 interim and final referendum to be legal in Syria. Afterward, a general election under International monitors can be conducted to appoint legal representatives and leaders of a new State.

If there is no unanimity on the above and in the event of deviation from these proscribed rules, it will mean a Civil War: Western/ Zionist backed traitors and foreign mercenaries-vs. -Russia/China/Iran/Syrians backed ones. It will assuredly drag the entire Middle East and its oil resources under fire and the global banking cartel under water. Add the Seven years long draught we are into now and…you get the picture.

Syria is not a silly Air-heads Zionist game plot, it is a destiny humanity will have to take.

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July 22nd, 2012, 12:02 pm

 

60. omen said:


Landis argues
there that an independent Allawite state is an unlikely outcome. Well, he’s the expert. But I can’t help noticing that the Russian naval basis would fall within a rump Allawite State. Why wouldn’t Russia support an Allawite State to keep their toe-hold in the Middle East? The Allawites are well-armed, including chemical weapons, why couldn’t they defend an enclave, especially with Russia’s enthusiastic backing? Such an outcome might explain Russia’s puzzlingly willingness to alienate the future powers of Syria proper.

if regimists allowed to retreat back to the coast would put a stop to the fighting and produced a mutually agreed upon cold peace…well, then, why not?

p.s. probably too naive a scenario. i forgot bashar is incapable of being reasonable.

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July 22nd, 2012, 5:03 pm

 

61. jake said:

@DAMASCIUS

‘The map also shows shiites region in Syria in rif damascus towards Lebanon ,in which there are very few of them.’

it should be mentioned that there aren’t many kurds and alawites in aleppo either (some kurds in ayn-al arab and some alawites in aleppo city but thats probably it). However with regards to lebanon the shia are concentrated and in majority around eastern bekaa.

‘The coast is shown as the alawites are a majority on all the coastal marge ,which is not accurate.’

Most of the coastal cities are mixed (that is, no group is in absolute majority). some historians and experts on syria (like joshua landis) have been saying that sunnis are majority in the cities of latakia, jableh, and baniyas – however they are at best a slight majority (little over half) and many others say that the cities have recently been less than half sunni after the alawites have moved in since the 70s from the countryside. That is ignoring the fact and impacts this revolution is having on the coastal cities – where many sunnis are moving out after the repression and many alawis are moving in from the cities in inner syria (damascus, homs, aleppo).

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July 22nd, 2012, 11:27 pm

 

62. habib said:

The arguments against an Alawite state works as long as there is no imminent danger of mass slaughter of Alawites. Since this is not the case, anything is possible. Of course the Alawites would rather have a separate state than be slowly beheaded by foreign jihadis.

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July 23rd, 2012, 7:00 am

 

63. DE Teodoru said:

Syria is NOT Egypt, Tunisia nor is it Libya, where factions impede national order but are so far apart that in the end it is who brings in oil cash flow that he gets to match civil order with economic order. In Syria there has been a lot of time of intermixing of interests and assets as well as a common security burden in Israel, that Syrians held together well enough to even defy Nasser.

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July 23rd, 2012, 7:44 pm

 

64. a. hanna said:

I think there are some missing links to the Syrian debate. One, is Israel. Recently, (and you can read this at all major Israeli papers), an IDF commander said that the next attack on Lebanon will be far worse than the last time and will include heavy damage to densely populated areas. This is connected to the Syria carnage going on. One thing is for sure, Israel is trying hard to remain quiet as possible. You cannot believe much in the Mainstream media because it is all Corporate owned and highly controlled by the US government.

You have to ask “who benefits” most by creating a “sectarian” tensions and increasing the animosities between groups. I don’t entirely agree with this article. (and please forgive my bouncing around the subject…never been known for my great writing!). I think an Alawite Coastal enclave would be beneficial to some factions in this Middle East Mediterranean area. It is always possible, btw, to make sure this new Allawite area has all the administrative, military, etc it needs…and quickly. Assad is likely a Western Asset and always has been; U.S. was outsourcing torture to the Assad Regime (2003). And he fled Damascus a few days ago for Latakia.

Landis worries “Syria could not survive without the coast”. But this may be one of the main intentions behind this Western induced fight. They are instigating a Balkan-like separation of Syria, which will benefit the Western States: Israel will bite out another swath of land (probably that in the southern tip of Syria and eastward); The Alawite State will be coastal which will also serve as removing the Russians (Assad is really a Western Asset); and Israel will attack Lebanon (taking another chunk of land) because Syria will be in no condition to aid them; and the US-Western Empire benefits because Israel is basically a Western sattelite station.

The rest of the area will be consistently destabilized, which will give the West and Israel the false sense of security in attacking Iran.

The Western ideologists believe that loss of life is Ok, they call it collateral damage, as long as it is done in the name of their cause…which is full spectrum dominance.

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July 23rd, 2012, 8:36 pm

 

65. DE Teodoru said:

Ironically, the Arab Spring motivated the Saudis to continue their Iraq War with Iran in Syria. The ophthalmologist inherited his position with a clear sight that his father’s solution to factional crisis can no longer work. Saudi playing in Syrian Sunni waters as part of its anti-Shia Iraq War has clouded the fact that ultimately Syria can only survive through accomodation between the minorities that make it a nation. All Syrians saw the dangers from Iran and America (whom they consider duped by Israel and the Saudis into a self-exsanguinating war in Iraq). Motivated by Turkish cooperativeness and Russian advise by both word and example, the Assad Jr. regime tried to be a helpful neighbor to all sides while at the same time trying to seem dangerous enough to Israel so that Israel doesn’t attack it. Alas, its attempt at nuclear power exposed its nakedness and the ophthalmologist’s lack of absolute power in Syria. This played a role in the Saudi games in Syria’s Sunni waters. The men around the ophthalmologist blurred his vision and got him to take personal responsibility for the return to his father’s strategy for dealing with Sunnis. But this should not take away from the ultimate realization floating around in the back of the cortex (the primary visual area) of all factions in Syria that, to paraphrase Ben Franklin, they all hang together or they’ll hang separately. In this thought Russia has been the consistently wise council. That’s why it wants no UN intervention; such intervention would only deepen the schisms that need to be re-glued if Syria is to survive. Only if all factions come to some accord can the irresponsible fragmentation caused in Syria by Iran and Saudi Arabia be repaired to form a yet more perfect Syrian union. That Obama saw the logic in the Russian argument and is willing– so far– to risk his re-election in hope of much Russo-American cooperation in the future by not aggravating the Syrian situation eith intervention as the Saudis and Israelis hope to make him do, is a tribute to his foresight and self-discipline. But he is a politician and Israel’s influence in US politics and media reaches deep. Yet, every day that he holds out is another chance for Syrian factions to again put Syria first. Conservatism on intervention now can put Humpty Dumpty together again. If that succeeds, it will be Obama’s greatest diplomatic coup and the Neocons’ greatest defeat.

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July 23rd, 2012, 8:40 pm

 

66. Marty's Mind » A Syrian Solution said:

[…] be willing to pull out of Syria, if the regime would agree to a plan to separate Syria into an Alawite State in the east and Sunni state in the west.  Where the predominantly Alawite areas would remain under […]

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September 13th, 2013, 2:58 pm

 

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