Zabadani Ceasefire Collapses, as fighting spreads

The cease fire in Zabadani has collapsed due to government strikes on the city, reports Brian Whitaker of the Guardian. Earlier the BBC announced that the Syrian army ‘agrees to ceasefire in Zabadani’, which had been reported by Radwan Ziadeh in the US. There was some excitement about the cease-fire development when it was first announced because it suggests that the Syrian military is overwhelmed by the spread of conflict to towns on the outskirts of Damascus. It also suggests that regions of Syria were falling out of government control and staying out of government control to create a “Libya like” situation where rebels could operate and organize without remaining on the run.

Opposition members argue that the Free Syrian Army based in Turkey are spearheading and commanding the fight in Zabadani. Nir Rosen, who has recently come out of Syria after a two month stay, argues on al-Jazeera (linked below) that the opposition claim of the existence of a centrally commanded Free Syrian Army is a myth. He claims that the militias that are springing up in different towns are locally commanded and organized and do not take orders from Col. Asaad or his FSA in Turkey. If this is true, it suggests that multiple militias are emerging, which may eventually struggle for command of Syria and take the place of the Syrian Army, unless they can negotiate some agreement on a central command. In the meantime, it is convenient for the opposition to call opposition forces the Free Syrian Army.

Film of the death of of the French journalist near the end of the clip. Friends explain that this film was taken in Homs in an Alawite neighborhood, which was hit by a mortar, killing a number of people on the street and the French journalist. Opposition sources argue the mortar was launched by government operatives in order to make the opposition look bad for killing civilians and to stir up civil war. Government sources blame it on opposition forces who are firing on Alawi districts. They argue that mortars cost only $400 and can be smuggled from Lebanon and Iraq without much trouble. This film clip is proof of how difficult it is to understand what is going on based on YouTube movie clips.

Sky News broadcast this Homs story from a team that visited the Alawi and Christian neighborhoods of Homs. As the reporter explains, the pro-Assad sentiment and reports of torture by opposition members expressed in this story are as one sided, but perhaps as representative, as other reports from opposition neighborhoods, such as the BBC report “Syria Undercover” broadcast a month ago. It is worth noting that Alawis and Christians only make up about 20% of Syria.

No plan to send Arab troops to Syria: League source
CAIRO | Sun Jan 15, 2012

(Reuters) – The Arab League has not received any official request or suggestion that it send Arab troops to Syria, an Arab representative to the Cairo-based League told Reuters on Sunday.

Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, said on Saturday that Arab troops may have to step in to halt the bloodshed in Syria since the start of protests against President Bashar al-Assad in March.

“There is no official suggestion to send Arab troops to Syria at the current time … There has been no Arab or a non-Arab agreement on a military intervention in Syria for the time being,” the representative to the League said.

Why deny Syria is in a civil war?
Posted on January 16, 2012 by Jeremy Pressman

Erica Chenoweth has a concise post arguing that Syria now meets the academic definition of a civil war. Her thoughts beg an interesting follow-up question: if Syria is in a civil war, why isn’t it being called a civil war?

In the United States, one possibility is that the Obama administration prefers a narrative of democratic protest against a brutal regime. A civil war, which means both pro- and anti-regime violence, muddies that narrative. For instance, in late December, a Syrian opposition figure said he told (h/t syriacomment.com) US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton about a nascent guerilla movement:

To my surprise, she asked that the defectors lay down their arms. That’s an odd request. Why didn’t they ask the rebels in Libya to lay down their arms? How can they do it if at any moment they can be fired at and murdered? It’s impractical.

If Secretary Clinton is still trying to discourage Syrian opposition violence, then admitting a civil war is underway would not be helpful. (Are Clinton or other US officials afraid that a civil war would be a pathway to sectarian fighting and spreading regional violence?)…..

Syrian MP, Tribal Chief Go into Exile
by Naharnet Newsdesk

A leading MP and an opposition figure who heads Syria’s largest tribe announced they have defected and gone into exile, in interviews broadcast on Monday on Al-Arabiya television.

“I have come to Turkey to activate the opposition. The Syrian revolution is our path. The country’s youth are making the greatest sacrifices for a better future,” Al-Baqqara tribal chief Nawaf al-Bashir told the satellite channel.

Bashir said he had been coerced to appear on state television in Syria to praise the reforms which President Bashar al-Assad says he has launched.

He was a key supporter of the so-called Damascus Declaration which opposition leaders issued in 2005 to press for reform. He says he has been interrogated by the security services more than 75 times.

MP Imad Ghalioun, a member of parliament’s budget committee, said he had chosen Egypt as a base to try to help the opposition achieve “freedom and dignity” for the Syrian people in a future democratic state.

Fear of Civil War Mounts in Syria as Crisis Deepens
By ANTHONY SHADID

BEIRUT, Lebanon — The failure of an Arab League mission to stanch violence in Syria, an international community with little leverage and a government as defiant as its opposition is in disarray have left Syria descending into a protracted, chaotic and perhaps unnegotiable conflict.

The opposition speaks less of prospects for the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and more about a civil war that some argue has already begun, with the government losing control over some regions and its authority ebbing in the suburbs of the capital and parts of major cities like Homs and Hama. Even the capital, Damascus, which had remained calm for months, has been carved up with checkpoints and its residents have been frightened by the sounds of gunfire.

The deepening stalemate underlines the extent to which events are slipping out of control. In a town about a half-hour drive from Damascus, the police station was recently burned down and in retaliation electricity and water were cut off, diplomats say. For a time, residents drew water in buckets from a well. Some people are too afraid to drive major highways at night.

In Homs, a city that a Lebanese politician called “the Stalingrad of the Syrian revolution,” reports have grown of sectarian cleansing of once-mixed neighborhoods, where some roads have become borders too dangerous for taxis to cross. In a suggestion that reflected the sense of desperation, the emir of Qatar said in an interview with CBS, an excerpt of which was released Saturday, that Arab troops should intervene in Syria to “stop the killing.”

“There’s absolutely no sign of light,” said a Western diplomat in Damascus, a city once so calm it was called Syria’s Green Zone. “If anything, it’s darker than ever. And I don’t know where it’s going to end. I can’t tell you. I don’t think anyone can.”

Posted: 16 Jan 2012 [h/t War in Context]

Ian Black reports: Sipping tea in a smoky Damascus cafe, Adnan and his wife, Rima, look ordinary enough: an unobtrusive, thirtysomething couple winding down at the end of the working day in one of the tensest cities in the world. But like much else in the Syrian capital, they are not what they first seem: [...]

Syria Report

Resolute Syrian President to Use ‘Iron Fist’, Debate Over International Intervention Propels Disunity Among Opposition
On Tuesday, January 10 during an address at Damascus University, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad highlighted ongoing government reforms and vowed to continue the government’s fight against terrorism and international conspirators. For its part, the Arab League observer mission in Syria has already been deemed a failure; violence has heavily intensified with over 400 killed since the first of its members arrived in country two weeks ago. At the same time, fuel and heating oil shortages, as well as a growing dearth of affordable food stuffs, are posing serious challenges to nearly all.

Videos: Patrick Seale and Nir Rosen on Syria Thanks to War in Context

Syrian opposition row over foreign military action nixes unity effort
By Ashish Kumar Sen
The Washington Times, Friday, January 6, 2012

Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)Pro-Syrian regime protesters shout slogans and hold portraits of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration Jan. 4, 2012, in Damascus, Syria, to show solidarity for Assad. (Associated Press)

Efforts by the U.S. and the Arab League to work with a unified Syrian opposition have been stymied, mostly due to two opposition groups’ disagreement on foreign military action to oust President Bashar Assad.

A weeks-long effort to build a coalition between Syria’s two main opposition groups — the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in Syria (NCB) — collapsed this week after it was reported that the groups had agreed to reject foreign intervention.

News of the deal caused an uproar in the Syrian National Council’s ranks, and the leadership quickly accused the NCB of passing off as a final agreement what they had considered talking points for an Arab League-sponsored opposition conference later this month.

A fractured opposition complicates international engagement and casts doubt about a post-Assad government.

The Syrian National Council supports international intervention, and in a meeting on Tuesday, its executive committee officially rejected the purported agreement with the NCB.

“We didn’t want to be on record saying we are against foreign intervention. We are for foreign intervention, but we don’t want to exchange a bad regime for an occupier,” said George Jabboure Netto, an Syrian National Council member.

It would be up to the U.N. Security Council to decide what intervention, including airstrikes, is required, he said. “We are not going to dictate how they should go about this.”

Press Release
SNC and FSA Agree on Activating Coordination Mechanism

A delegation from the Syrian National Council (SNC) met with the leadership of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on Thursday, January 12, 2012. The goal of the meeting was to increase the level of coordination and activate mechanisms of communications between them. The delegation, headed by Dr. Burhan Ghalioun, extensively discussed the situation on the ground and the organizational capacity of the FSA with Colonel Riad Al-Asa’ad and his deputy Malek Kurdi. Included in the discussion was an assessment of needs including reorganization and restructuring of FSA units. The parties agreed to formulate a detailed plan, to include the reorganization of FSA units and brigades, and the creation of a format to accommodate within FSA ranks additional officers and soldiers, especially senior military officials, who side with the revolution.

Is Al-Qaeda Infiltrating Syria Through Lebanon’s Beka’a Valley?
by Nick Heras for Jamestown

Syria politics: Pride before a fall?
January 10th 2012, FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, has delivered his fifth speech since the popular uprising against his regime erupted in March 2011. Many of the themes were familiar—blaming the crisis on foreign conspiracies and Islamist terrorists, and offering promises of reform—and Mr Assad reiterated his resolve to crush the uprising by force. There was also a note of satisfaction that his regime has managed to check the efforts of some Arab League member states to press actively for UN Security Council intervention. However, this respite may not last.

The last time Mr Assad made a public appearance was on August 1st when he made a speech to mark army day. Since then Syria’s internal conflict has become steadily more violent and the regime has faced increasingly determined pressure from the EU, Turkey and, most recently, the Arab League. The death toll among Syrian civilians is now thought to exceed 6,000; the regime claims that more than 2,000 members of its security forces have been killed. There have also been two bomb attacks in Damascus that the government has tried to blame on al-Qaida, but which the opposition claims to have been staged by the regime in order to validate its narrative about external terrorist threats. The EU and Turkey have imposed economic sanctions, which have had a severe impact on the regime’s finances, and the Arab League, having suspended Syria’s membership, threatened to impose its own sanctions, until the government agreed terms for the dispatch of Arab monitors tasked with overseeing a reduction in regime violence against unarmed protesters…….

Discord

Another positive development from Mr Assad’s perspective has been the discord in the ranks of some of his opponents. The Syrian National Council (SNC) has tried to project itself as the most representative force among the opposition, having drawn together many of its strands, including the Muslim Brotherhood, exiled liberal intellectuals, Kurdish groups and activists from the underground local co-ordinating committees (LCCs) operating within Syria. However, another opposition group, the National Co-ordinating Body (NCB), some of whose activists remain in full view inside Syria, has become a thorn in the side of the SNC. Representatives of the two groups met in Cairo at the start of January, and news emerged suggesting that they had agreed on a common platform, including a rejection of international intervention and an agreement to negotiate with regime elements not directly implicated in violence. The SNC quickly denied that any such agreement had been reached and that the NCB had leaked a discussion document; the NCB denied this, and accused the SNC of backtracking. The NCB’s external leader, Haitham Mannaa, has derided his rivals as being a toxic mixture of Islamists and neo-conservatives, and has insisted that Syria’s future should remain an exclusively Arab concern. Bourhan Ghalioun, the chairman of the SNC, said that Mr Assad’s speech had made it abundantly clear that the regime had no intention of complying with the Arab League’s demands, and that the only way forward was to fully engage the international community in affording protection to the Syrian civilian population. According to the LCCs more than 30 people were killed by regime security forces on the day of Mr Assad’s speech, the majority of them in the north-eastern city of Deir al-Zor.

Fantasy reforms

Mr Assad devoted much of the latter part of his speech to describing the progress that he had made with political reforms. He ticked off the law passed to lift the state of emergency, a political parties law (which he said had now resulted in the first new parties being licensed), a new election law, a media law and the staging of local elections in early December. He said that he had intended to pass an anti-corruption law, but that it had been delayed to allow for more study and consultation. The next major step would be to hold a referendum in early March to approve a new constitution drawn up by a committee appointed last year. Two to three months after the constitution is approved, there would be a general election for a new parliament—the mandate of the previous parliament ran out in April; the assembly has since reconvened on a provisional basis. Mr Assad sought to present these reforms as advancing with significant popular participation, thereby branding the entire opposition movement as being beyond the political pale. His reform project would look more credible if he could co-opt some elements of the opposition to become involved, but there is so far little sign that the regime will manage to pull this off. Even Mr Mannaa of the NCB still professes that his group’s objective is to bring down the Assad regime.

Points of weakness

For all his bravado, Mr Assad’s regime continues to survive only because of its brutal use of force and thanks to some residual support that it enjoys from Russia, China, a handful of Arab states, Iran and Venezuela (which has recently provided some shipments of petroleum products). The documenting of incidents by opposition groups and the dissemination of videos to media organisations has acted as a constraint on the regime, meaning that it has not been possible to raze whole areas to the ground along the lines of the subjugation of Hama in 1982. However, the accumulation of evidence that the regime has being carrying out a systematic campaign of gross abuses of human rights means that there is no chance of the Assad regime returning to some semblance of business as usual. Sanctions can only become stiffer. Whether through incremental foreign intervention or an internal collapse, or a combination of the two, it is probable that the Assad regime will eventually be brought down.

(Translated by Max Weiss.) Samar Yazbek on the Syrian Revolt is a Syrian writer and journalist. In August 2011 she wrote in these pages about her experience of being detained after a demonstration. She is one of the Beirut 39 authors.

Comments (612)


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601. Syria no kandahar said:

جهاديون وهابيون امثال
العرعور
القرضاوي
العريفي
وريفلون

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January 23rd, 2012, 10:13 am

 

602. jad said:

Amir,
No, I wont, you talk directly to me and you critics my comments but you never stalked me.

Syrialover,
You are right that anybody can call out for using foul language, it’s always the case on SC, however, this is not the case, just go check the history of comments to understand my point.
What no body should be allowed to do is to ‘Stalk’ others especially when they’ve been asked many times to stop.
‘Stalkers’ should know their limits and if they don’t then the law comes handy and you will hear about that soon. Thank you!

Tara,
What you wrote is usual and expected, I’m not surprised!
You have your own issues that has nothing to do with the ‘Stalker’ case. I know that you are trying all you could for me to be banned, it’s getting old, and if or when I decide to stop writing it’ll be my own decision nobody else.
Before you start the usual mantra of me being the ‘bad’ guy, please go and check every comment I wrote, I never threat you or anybody on SC with anything, I may have used a foul language when I was attacked without any reason, maybe in 10-15 comments out of probably a thousand I wrote lately which doesn’t support your case of me being the reason for you not contributing, besides, if you are such a brilliant political writer and a splendid debater that can’t write in a ‘filthy’ site like SC, how come you don’t contribute to 7ee6an, they are without a doubt a very respected people, how come you don’t fit there?
“You have no case against William.” Will see, stay tune :)

Observer,
I’m sorry that you went down from being an observer to something like #585, I really am sorry for you.

P.S. To all the above;
Don’t you have a revolution/uprising that you need to support by any means instead of finding more enemies and attacking people online. Just a though!

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January 23rd, 2012, 10:18 am

 

603. jad said:

Oglu can’t wait to occupy Syria:

أوغلو: تركيا ستشارك مع القوات الدولية بسوريا بحال اتخاذ قرار دولي

أعلن وزير الخارجية التركي أحمد داوود أوغلو “أنه فى حال تم إتخاذ قرار أممي بشأن الوضع الإنساني في الساحة السورية، فإن تركيا ستشارك مع القوات الدولية في خدمة الجانب الإنساني لمساعدة الشعب السوري في محنته الحالية”.
وأكد أوغلو في تصريح له “أن تركيا تدعم جميع قرارات جامعة الدول العربية لوقف حمام الدم فى الساحة السورية، وأن تركيا على كامل الإستعداد لدعم الشعب السوري فى جميع المجالات الإنسانية “.
وأعرب عن أمله في” أن يتم إقناع النظام السوري بالتراجع عن أعمال العنف التى يقترفها ضد أبناء شعبه، وتجنيب سوريا أي تدخل أجنبي”.

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January 23rd, 2012, 10:31 am

 

604. jad said:

الدابي: لا علاقة لي بقرارات الجامعة وطلبت دعم بعثة المراقبين سياسياً

اشار رئيس بعثة المراقبين العرب في سوريا الفريق اول محمد الدابي في مؤتمر صحافي في القاهرة الى ان بعثة المراقبة انشئت على عجل بعد ان فرضت عقوبات على سوريا دون ان تكون التحضيرات كافية لقيام البعثة بدورها ورغم ذلك فقد عملت البعثة في 5 مواقع رئيسية في سوريا دون ان نلقى اي معارضة من النظام السوري او من المعارضة السورية وعندما طلب مني ان اتي الى القاهرة لتقديم تقرير اولي لم اكن متحمسا للفكرة لعدم توافر ما يكفي لاعداد تقرير ولكنني حضرت بناء على رغبة وزراء الخارجية وبعد تقرير البعثة المبدئي قمنا بزيارة 15 موقع اضافي في سوريا.
ولفت الدابي الى ان المؤيدين للنظام اعتبروا اننا جئنا للتمهيد لتدخل اجنبي واما المعارضة فاعتبرت ان عمل البعثة هو لاطالة امد النظام اما بالنسبة للبعثة فهي مكلفة بالاشراف على تنفيذ ما جاء في البروتوكول وما جاء فيه واضح انه نحن ننظر ونتحقق ولا نحقق لانه ليس لدينا الوسائل، نحن نتحقق بما تم على الارض ونرفع تقرير الى قيادة الجامعة التي تدعو الى اجتماع للوزراء للتداول بما تنفيذه فنحن لسنا مكلفين بتقصي حقائق ما حصل منذ بداية الاحداث بل عملنا يشمل البنود الخمس الاساسية وحتى الراي السياسي ليس من اختصاصنا.
واكد ان “مهمة البعثة الرصد وليست مهمتها ايقاف القتل واذا تم ايقاف القتل ستقول البعثة ذلك واذا لم يتم ستقول وهذه هي مهمتنا فالبنود الخمسة تنص على المراقبة والرصد على اعمال العنف، التأكد من عدم التعرض للمظاهرات، التأكد من سحب المظاهر المسلحة، البند الرابع يتعلق بالمعتقلين، والبند الخامس يتحدث عن الاعلام وواجبنا التأكد من مدى تنفيذ هذه البنود ونحن التزمنا بهذه البنود وبناء عليه قدمنا تقريرنا”،واضاف “التقرير لم يكن من الفريق الاول الدابي بل بناء على ما قدمه كل الاخوة الموجودين في 15 قطاع الذين قدموا تقاريرهم ونحن طلبنا حضورهم الى مقر البعثة في دمشق حيث تمت مراجعة ما كتبوه ومن ثم تم التلخيص في تقرير وقدم الى الجامعة العربية”.
واضاف الدابي ان “التقرير يغطي فترة 20 يوم والانفتاح الذي تم حصل في هذه الفترة وهذا رقم قياسي، ما تم في هذه البنود نقوله بصدق ورفعنا رؤيتنا وما شاهدناه فبالنسبة للعنف، قلنا انه عندما وصلنا كان هناك عنف واضح ولكن بعد وصولنا بدأت تخف حدة العنف التي تتم بين المعارضة المسلحة والقوات السورية ولكن وضحنا ايضا ان هناك بعض المناطق كحمص وحماة توجد فيها بعض الاحتكاكات الغير مباشرة اي ليس قتالا مباشرا”،وتابع ” في حمص ودرعا هناك اعمال قد تكون ذات تأثير عند استخدام النيران عند الافراد، فلاحظنا ان العمل يتم من بعض المسلحين وهذا ما يجبر بعض المجموعات التي تقوم بالحراسة للرد على النيران،اما في محافظة ادلب لاحظنا عمليات غريبة وهي التفجيرات، وهذا الامر غير مقبول اطلاقا بالنسبة للمجتمع العربي والدولي وهي طالت خطوط انابيب وناقلات مازوت للتدفئة وباصات عسكرية ومدنية، كل هذه الاعمال ظهرت في ادلب وريف دمشق”.
وتابع الدابي انه ” بالنسبة للتظاهرات، كان يتم التعرض لها من قبل القوات الحكومية قبل وصولنا ونحن طالبنا بابعاد هذه القوات ونتيجة لذلك تم تحجيم المواجهة بين قوات مكافحة الشغب والمتظاهرين وتم تحجيم هذه الاعتداءات”،واضاف “اما بالنسبة لاطلاق سراح المعتقلين، فالبيانات تفيد بارقام كبيرة وهذه معلومات استلمناها من مصادر عديدة ومنها معارضة وتتحدث عن 16 الف وعن 12 الف ولكن تبين ان هذه الارقام تحتاج الى المزيد من التدقيق ولم نتمكن من التوثيق الدقيق ولكن ما زلنا نعمل على ذلك عبر المعارضة الداخلية والسلطات السورية والمنظمات الانسانية،والحكومة السورية افادتنا عن اطلاق نحو 4000 قبل صدور مرسوم العفو و3000 بعد صدور العفو هذا لحين كتابة التقرير وقبل يومين افدنا باطلاق ما يقارب 2000، نحن كبعثة تأكدنا من صدور العفو على ما يقارب 3000 معتقل قبل صدور المرسوم وما يقارب 2000 بعد صدور المرسوم”.
واشار الى انه “بالنسبة للاعلام، الحكومة السورية تقول انها صادقت لما يقارب 147 وسيلة اعلام وتقول ان ما يقارب 112 وسيلة موجودة داخل سوريا و90 تعمل عبر مراسلين ونحن راقبنا ورصدنا 36 وسيلة اعلام تعمل فعليا داخل سوريا ووجدنا بعض الشكاوى من بعض وسائل الاعلام عن مدة الترخيص وتحدثنا الى السلطات السورية وتم التجاوب من قبلهم”.
وختم الدابي “ورد في الجزيرة بالامس اني طلبت تمديد مهمة البعثة، والحقيقة انا لم اطلب ولا يحق لي ذلك، بل قلت ان كان هناك نية للتمديد فانني اطلب الدعم السياسي والاعلامي للبعثة ودعمها اداريا، وطلبت التأكيد على ضرورة تعجيل العملية السلمية وانطلاق الحوار بالتوازي لان وجود البعثة مع الحوار يؤدي لنتائج ايجابية جدا ويحقق مهمة البعثة”.

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January 23rd, 2012, 10:35 am

 

605. Juergen said:

#595

This message is for DEFENDER not IRRITATED :)

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January 23rd, 2012, 11:09 am

 

606. irritated said:

597. Juergen

Don’t worry for that, they’ll find the money. They are smarter than you would like to admit. Wake up, the world is not only the USA and the EU (and Germany), you know.

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January 23rd, 2012, 11:24 am

 

607. Revlon said:

Hi Tara,
The AL initiative, or what has been published thereof, notwithstanding its good intentions and its scarificed for end-goal of free national elections, has enough serious flaws that shall guarantee both the prolongation of the plight of the Syrian people and its eventual failure.

The scarcity of details makes it seem more like a vision than a plan; It can hardly be considered a road map, unless one regards Oslo agreement as one.

Here is my take on some points that were published on Cairo (CNN) website:

((The Arab League agreed on a path forward in Syria on Sunday that instructs President Bashar al-Assad to delegate powers to his vice president following the formation of a national unity government.))
Comments:
- Delegate means that Jr can still reverse, suspend, amend, or append the delegated mandate.
- Powers: implied powers shall be limited to authorising the deputy to start dialogue with the opposition on his (Jr’s) behalf. Other executive powers, including the control of the killing and torture machine shall continue to be in his hand.
__________________________________________________________________
((The Arab League called for the government to start a dialogue with the opposition within two weeks and for the new government to be formed within two months)).

Comments:
- “Within two weeks”: of what date? Jr could accept in principle yet take weeks to months to “delegate powers”!
- “Dialogue”: Who sets the terms of the agenda for dialogue? What if there was no agreement on the Agenda?
- “The opposition”: Who are the opposition? Jr could produce hundreds of “regime-friendly” opposition, who have zero-constituency that would counter the weight of the representatives of the revolution.
__________________________________________________________________
((The unity government should within three months prepare to elect a council that will write a constitution, the Arab League said. It should also prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections.))

Comments
Here is the expected, rough formula for power sharing for this government:
Regime: 50%
Opposition: 50%
- SNC opposition 25%
- NCB 12.5%
- Other stoolpigeons: 12.5%
That guarantees 60 to 70% of the vote in the government, and with it the main ministerial folios.

Is the national unity government going to elect the council which would wrtite the consitution, as the NCB would like, or will there be national elections like the Revolution and SNC insist on? It is not clear to me!
__________________________________________________________________
((The president will delegate his first vice president the full power to work with the national unity government to enable it to perform its task in the transitional period,” the foreign minister said.))

Comments:
- The president shall delegate powers to work with the government. The armed forces and security agencies are out of bound. They remain in the hands of the president.
All troublesome activists, within or without the SNC may somehow be found dead of AlJazeera drug overdose, blown up by Alqaeda suicide bomber, blown up with their car by road side FSA bomb, or suicide by several bullets in the head!

- His first vice president: Who is he? Jr could appoint any one he wants from now until the signing of the agreement!
__________________________________________________________________

((The Arab League will take its initiative, which does not back military intervention in Syria, to the United Nations in a bid to build international support. The organization also said it would extend its monitoring mission in Syria and increase the number of observers there.)).

Comment:
I find this clause most disturbing, and it is in my opinion much worse than even direct military intervention.
The latter would cease with ousting Assad and his regime, while adopting the AL political initiative by the UN may virtually lead to auctioning of Syria’s economic and geopolitical future to the best bidding international and regional protagonists. In a nutshell, Syria shall become like Lebannon, under extra-judiciary, international mandate!
__________________________________________________________________
((The Syrian government roundly rejected the plan, which it views as “blatant intervention in its internal affairs,” Syria’s official SANA news agency reported soon after the announcement.))

Comment:
This is probably a preliminary position that could serve one or two purposes:
- It could entice the opposition, who can not negotiate the terms of the initiative, into accepting it.
- Once they do, the regime would announce their conditioned approval.

The final, regime-conditioned initiative shall be as bad and devastating to the revolution as the AL Observers mandate has been.

Cheers.

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January 23rd, 2012, 11:32 am

 

608. zoo said:

moved to next post

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January 23rd, 2012, 11:36 am

 

609. Valerya said:

http://politclub.info/2012/01/18/%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%8B-%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B2%D1%8F%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D1%8D%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD/

18.01.2012
- An exchange of mutual threats of the USA and Iran in the beginning of January, 2012;

- Tests by Israel and Iran the newest systems of rockets. On tests of the Israeli missile system Hets-3 which urged to become top “layer” of many-tier system of the Israeli-American ABM, there were representatives of the Ministry of Defence of the USA and the American company Boeing which take part in the project. Earlier on arms IAD the first batteries of the bottom echelon – ABM systems «Iron dome» have arrived. At a stage of the advanced working out there is a second echelon – system of the ABM of “Prashcha David” (or “Magic wand”). The third echelon – anti racket system «Hets-2 ″ – are on arms IAD since 2000;

- The conclusion between Tel Aviv and Berlin arrangements on granting to Israel the newest submarines of a class “Dolphin” which can bear the nuclear weapon. Berlin will pay third of cost of a submarine — about 135 million euro. On arms of Naval Forces of Israel already there are 3 such submarines;

- Scale doctrines of the Syrian army on purpose to check up readiness of the Air Forces and air defense to prevent any possible intrusion into air and sea space of Syria;

- Promotion of the Russian military ships to coast of Syria as quite adequate answer to threats of the USA and their satellites to untie aggression against Syria;

- Carrying out of scale military doctrines of Naval Forces of Iran by Iran under the name «wilayat 90»;

- The prevention Iran of the United States of America reciprocal actions of Iran in case the aircraft carrier of the USA will return to area of Persian gulf, sounded by the commander-in-chief of Iranian army Ataolloj Salehi, informs Reuters; the answer of the USA;

- Threat of Iran to the West to block strait of Ormuz if export of the Iranian oil is blocked by the West by means of economic sanctions as 40 % of oil sold in the world are transported through the given passage (meanwhile, despite lacking the special international agreement across strait of Ormuz, Iran has signed the Geneva convention of 1958);

- The statement of the head of the Pentagon of Leon Panetty on January, 9th, 2012 that if Teheran blocks strait of Ormuz the USA will undertake power methods. Leon Edward Panetta also has warned Israel against independent blow on nuclear objects of Iran, having underlined that the similar decision can cause reciprocal actions of Teheran against the American armies in region, having called Israel for mutual military cooperation;

- An input in January, 2012 to Persian gulf through strait of Ormuz of the ships, among which nuclear aircraft carrier “John Stennis”, the USA attributed to the Fifth fleet. The Pentagon the newest universal landing ship-helicopter carrier of type Wasp, the amfibijno-transport ship-dock, the amfibijno-landing ship-dock, marines battalion, group of the special operations, the strengthened squadron of fighting helicopters and a rear battalion throws to Persian gulf new divisions and the ships, among which;

- A direction the British Royal fleet to Persian gulf of a destroyer of new generation HMS Daring of series Type 45 which are a destroyer, specially designed so that to remain imperceptible for a radar;

- Speech of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel at ceremony of memory of the first prime minister of Israel David Ben-Gurion which can be considered and as an appeal to blow drawing across Iran, whatever heavy were consequences of such step;

- Intention of Israel to suspend work of the nuclear reactor because of fears before probable rocket bombardments of Iran;

- An unprecedented concentration of the USA and Russia the military resources around Syria and Iran;

- Unprecedented pressure of the USA upon Israel with the requirement not to untie independent military operation in the Near East;

- Sale by the United States of America of Saudi Arabia which has agreed to give for blow of Israel across Iran the air space, 84 newest fighters F-15 SA for a total sum $29.4 billion Within the limits of the concluded transaction experts of the USA modernize 70 fighters F-15S (the Saudi Air Forces being now on arms); also ammunition and spare parts will be put, training and logistics are organized, and also – techniques service is provided, informs CNN;

- The statement the Israeli parliament of the decision on transfer into accounts of the Ministry of Defence of Israel of additional financing at a rate of 779 million shekels thanks to which the annual budget of military department has exceeded 60 billion shekels;

- Signing by the Israeli aero concern «Taasia аviriт» on January, 8th, 2012 the contract from one of the countries of Asia on delivery of pilotless planes, and also the equipment for conducting air reconnaissance and other military equipment for a total sum of 1,1 billion dollars. And also the contract for the sum of 0,5 billion US dollars (a total sum: 1,6 billion dollars). the countries, in the message it is not specified, meanwhile about 40 % of production of Israel goes to Asia, first of all to India and China. On contract conditions, within four years the Israeli concern should put to partners party of rockets of different classes, including rockets the sea-sea, the pilotless flying machines created for system of the ABM of “Hits” a radar «Oren Is bright», systems for gathering of the information and other equipment.

- A transfer of the USA of thousand military men of the USA on territory of Israel (as a signal to Iran) in addition to that at the radar station of the USA placed in the south of Israel can be now to 700 military men of the USA. According to the Israeli site debka.com to Israel already have arrived not less than 9 thousand American military men.

- The carrying out of the joint planned for February, 2012 is unprecedented scale doctrines of armies of the USA and Israel with expansion of command point of air defense of the USA and use of the newest system of high-rise zone defense. Besides that in Israel command points of the USA will be developed, in the German headquarters of command ВС the USA in Europe it is supposed to create command points of army of Israel for the purpose of creation of joint operative grouping of forces in case of the beginning of the large-scale conflict in the Near East. The purpose: preparation for creation of incorporated command of the ABM;

- The information in the letter of US president Obama Ayatollah Hamenai with instructions that in case of passage Iran blocking, the USA use trawlers, the military ships and even air strikes on territory of Iran for lifting of a blockade;

- The scale military doctrines of Iran code-named planned for February, 2012 «Great Prophet»;

- Immigration for last months to Israel under programs of special services of Israel of 150 young doctors from the countries of the former Soviet Union in addition to what profits of Israel earlier;

- Mass remigrations (both on time, and on a constant place a residence) Israelis from Israel to Ukraine (Kiev, Odessa, Feodosiya, Sevastopol, etc. cities), fixed and sounded by scientists and state officials of Ukraine. Visiting by the ex-resident Mossad in Moscow Reuvenom Dinelem who nowadays is the Ambassador of Israel in Ukraine, АР Crimea where it has spent a number of meetings with heads АР Crimea, and also has taken part in opening of the Israeli cultural center in Crimea, Akmesdzhite on December, 12th, 2012.

Major factor which has excited Israel in 2011 and has caused hearings about ostensibly “treachery” from the basic strategic partner – the USA, – speech of US president Barack Obama about «the new policy» the USA in the countries of the Near East and the North Africa in which Obama has declared was that negotiations between Palestine and Israel should come to the end with delineating of constant Palestinian borders between Israel, Jordan and Egypt, and also constant Israeli border. The US president has suggested to designate borders of Israel and Palestine on lines of 1967 «with mutual voluntary exchanges» that has caused support of all participants of “the Near-Eastern quartet» (the United Nations, Russia, the USA and the European Union), but sharp negative reaction of the prime minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu.

After a while the management of Palestine has made the statement that in September, 2011 at session of General Assembly of the United Nations it will apply about a recognition of independence of the Palestinian state in borders of 1967 that leaguers of the Arabian states and the Russian Federation have unanimously approved, but also has caused negative reaction of the prime minister of Israel Netanijagu. Israel also searches a pretext for carrying out of new military operation in sector of Gaza to minimize “the victory” of Palestinians expressed in clearing from the Israeli prisons of hundreds of the Palestinian prisoners, and, with another — for the purpose of rallying of Israel and “removal” by original image of contradictions in torn apart more than a year social protests and political contentions to the country for switching of a sharpness of deep social and internal political crisis on the external enemy – Iran, Syria.

Thus, if the West and Israel declare the purpose not to admit development of the nuclear program by Iran the Russian Federation, China and Iran aspire not to admit the beginning of military operations against Syria and Iran with an establishment big control by the West over the richest sources of power resources and strategically important transport routes. Repartition of geopolitical space of the Arabian East according to the project «Big Near East», presented in 2006 Condoleezza Rice in Tel Aviv and realized with use of modern technologies of “twitter-revolutions”, mentions to some extent all countries of region.
etc….

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January 23rd, 2012, 11:41 am

 

610. def said:

602. JUERGEN
Do you mean be surprised with lack of culture of the Slangs ?

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January 23rd, 2012, 12:01 pm

 

611. defender said:

602. JUERGEN
Do you mean be surprised with lack of culture of the Slangs?

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January 23rd, 2012, 12:03 pm

 

612. Syrialover said:

#603 Irritated said “Don’t worry for that, they’ll find the money [for military aircraft]. They are smarter than you would like to admit.”

I know, the Assad regime is smarter than all the world’s democracies put together. It doesn’t piss away the little money Syria has on frivolous things like fuel, food production/imports and infrastructure.

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January 23rd, 2012, 3:59 pm

 

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