Latest Statistics on Arab Popularity of Asad, Hamas, Hizbullah, Iraq…

Idaf writes:
Here is a transcript of a panel discussion of few days ago by MARTIN INDYK, SHIBLEY TELHAMI and DAVID IGNATIUS in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution on VIEWS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST: PUBLIC OPINION IN THE ARAB WORLD (results of the poll on Arab public opinion):
The presentation of SHIBLEY TELHAMI here with all the breakdowns and comparison with 2006..
Apparently, the popularity of Bashar grew from 2% in 2006 to 16% in 2008. Too bad they did not have a question on Syria. The result are really rich and diverse. 
Here are a few highlights:

Iraq: Only 6% of Arabs polled believe that the American surge has worked. A plurality (35% ) do not believe reports that violence has in fact declined. Over 61% believe that if the US were to withdraw from Iraq, Iraqis will find a way to bridge their differences, and only 15% believe the civil war would expand. 81% of Arabs polled (outside Iraq) believe that the Iraqis are worse off than they were before the Iraq war.

Iran: In contrast with the fears of many Arab governments, the Arab pu public does not appear to see Iran as a major threat. Most believe that Iran has the right to its nuclear program and do not support international pressure to force it to curtail its program. A pl plurality of Arabs (44%) believes that if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, the outcome would be more positive for the region than negative.

The Arab Israeli conflict: There is an increase in the expressed importance of the Palestinian issue, with 86% of the public identifying it as being at least among the top three issues to them. A majority of Arabs continues to support the two‐state solution based on the 1967 borders, but an increasing majority is pessimistic about its prospects. If the prospects of a two state solution collapse, 50% believe it would lead to a state of intense conflict for years t to come, while only 9% believe it would lead to a one one‐state solution, and only 7% believe that the Palestinians would eventually surrender.

Palestinian Divisions: In the conflict between : Hamas and Fatah, only 8% sympathize with Fatah, while 18% sympathize with Hamas, and 38% sympathize with both to some extent. In so far as, they see Palestinians as somewhat responsible for the state of they affairs in Gaza, 15% blame Hamas’s government, 23% blame the government appointed by President Mahmoud Abbas, and 39% blame both equally.

The Lebanese Crisis: Only 9% express sympathy with the majority governing coalition in the current in internal crisis in Lebanon, while 30% sympathize with the internal opposition led by Hizbollah, 24%, sympathize with neither side, and 19% sympathize with both to some extent.

Popular Leaders: Hezbollah’’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, increased his popularity as the most admired, leader in the Arab world (26%) There was also an increase in the popularity of President Bashar Assad of Syria. Also striking, however, was the emerging popularity of modernizing Sunni Arab leaders, particularly Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid al Maktoum of Dubai, when respondents identify the two leaders they admire most.

Attitudes toward the US: 83% of the public has an unfavorable view of the US and 70% express no confidence in the US. Still, Arabs continue to rank the US among the top countries with freedom and democracy for their own people. 32% believe that, from the point of view of advancing peace in the Middle East, American policy will remain the same, no matter who wins the US elections. 18% believe that Barack Obama has the best chance of advancing peace, 13% believe Hillary Clinton has the best chance, while 4% identify John McCain as having the best chance for advancing peace.

Global Outlook: France continues to be the most popular country, China continues to make a good showing, and views of Pakistan have declined.

Media: Al-Jazeera continues to command the largest share of the Arabic news market, with 53% of Arabs polled identifying it as their first choice for news, with practically no change from last year. Egyptian Television and Al Al‐Arabiya have made some gains over last year. To a plurality of respondents, the quality OF both Al-Arabiya and Al-Jazeera has improved over previous years, with only a small minority perceiving a decline.

Comments (1)

ausamaa said:

“In terms of methodology, for this particular survey, we’ve surveyed over four-thousand, actually 4,046, roughly 800 in Egypt, 750 in Saudi Arabia, 500 in the UAE, 750 in Morocco, 600 in Lebanon, 600 in Jordan”.

Imagine what the results would have looked like if the Poll:

(1)included Syria, Algeria, Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, Qatar and Bahrain.
(2)if the sample size in each country was representative of the size of the Population of the country in relation to the the Arab World total population(unlike 600 in Lebanon vs. 800 in Egypt!!).

I guess they had a certain point to prove doing it this way. And it was made anyway.

April 20th, 2008, 8:39 am


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