"Syria's Leadership and Opposition Need an Economic Policy," by Ehsani - Syria Comment

“Syria’s Leadership and Opposition Need an Economic Policy,” by Ehsani

Syria’s Leadership and Opposition Need an Economic Policy
By EHSANI2
for Syria Comment
12 July 2011

We are nearly four months into the crisis in Syria and neither the opposition nor the Syrian leadership has articulated anything that resembles an economic policy to address the country’s challenges. And this, despite the central importance of economic factors in igniting the Arab revolts..

Syrian parties are not alone in their silence on the economy. Egypt, too, has no viable economic plan. How will it create jobs? The country is lost. One of the leading figures in that country’s Freedom and Justice Party, the most recent incarnation of the Muslim Brotherhood, recently confessed: “I don’t know much about the economy”.

In a stunning admission, Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa confessed that the previous Syrian government had “manipulated” the economic growth figures. It claimed growth rates as high as 6% and 7% for Syria when they never exceeded 3.7%.

For those of us who believe that the recent events in the Arab world are being driven by years of economic under-achievement and falling living-standards for the majority, it is disappointing to hear so little discussion of economic policy.

The opposition, for example, is yet to offer a single credible plan that would explain to the Syrian people how their lives may improve under different leadership. It is true that the opposition is still too fragmented to offer such a plan. However, it is a fact that not a single camp in this so-called opposition has articulated a well thought-out economic alternative.

The same goes for the current leadership. While an implicit and even an explicit admission has taken place that the past economic policy failed to deliver the earlier promises of growth and employment, one is yet to hear a fundamental rethinking of the failed policies that brought us here in the first place.

Set below is a list of questions for the opposition and the leadership:

  1. In light of the current trends in population growth, what will happen to the subsidies? Will the Syrian treasury be able to afford paying close to $8 billion a year in subsidies and for how long? Is there a plan to replace them with cash assistance to the lower income groups only?
  2. What will the country do about the public sector? Fewer than 10 percent of the 260 public enterprises are profitable. How long can the country keep throwing good money after bad? Will we keep promising to reform this sector with the most predictable of outcomes?
  3. Will the government act to control population growth and how?
  4. How will the economy grow enough to generate nearly 300,000 jobs a year? This number of new jobs is required merely to absorb the new entrants into the labor force. It will not reduce the present level of unemployment.

One can go on of course. This list is by no means sufficient to address all the challenges that will face the country going forward.

While the removal of article 8 from the Syrian constitution has received widespread support from the opposition, one is yet to hear much about article 13 that governs the country’s economic principals.  This is how 13 (1) reads today:

“The state economy is a planned socialist economy which seeks to end all forms of exploitation.”

Once article 13 is addressed, article 23 needs to follow. It states that:

“The nationalist socialist education is the basis for building the unified socialist Arab society. It seeks to strengthen moral values, to achieve the higher ideals of the Arab nation, to develop the society, and to serve the causes of humanity. The state undertakes to encourage and to protect this education.”

Article 49 is also linked since it states:

“The Popular organizations by law effectively participate in the various sectors and councils to realize the following:

  1. Building the socialist Arab society and defending the system.
  2. Planning and guiding the socialist economy.”

The Syrian people deserve a vigorous debate over their future economic policy. As Egypt has found out, regime change does not automatically put food on the table, just as it does not magically create jobs or lift standards of living.

Both the Syrian leadership and those in the opposition need to articulate a realistic, decisive and effective economic policy that inspires the 23 million Syrians who must dream of a brighter future for their kids.

The time for a national dialogue on the economy is now. The leadership must lead the charge and offer the country a progressive, bold and inspiring new path forward.

Addendum (14 July 2011) by Author : EIU

Ehsani is raising a crucial issue not only for Syria but for other countries afected by uprisings inspired to some extent by frustration at the failure of economic policy.

On the real GDP growth question it would be interesting to get a more precise idea from Shara about the extent of the manipulation. Actually the latest quarterly bulletin of the central bank includes a provisional figure of 3.2% for growth in 2010, which may or may not be plausible; in the previous five years, the official figures show growth averaging 5.4%, which you could argue is too high, but would be consistent with the performance of some sections of the economy, in particular exports of goods and services in the context of generally strong growth across the region. The point is that given the long legacy of poor economic performance going back to the disastrous UAR, a country in Syria’s position would need growth rates of over 7% to make any impact on poverty and unemployment.

The policy questions are more difficult. The 2006-10 five-year plan aspired to achieve growth rates of around 7%, but was categorical about the need for restructuring, for example phasing out ruinous petroleum price subsidies and widening the government’s tax base through introducing VAT (supposed to have happened in 2008), as well as developing the domestic debt market through launching T-bills. The plan also included measures to put public sector companies on an autonomous commercial footing, which would logically lead to privatisation. These policies can be crudely categorised under the Dardari heading. The problem is that Dardari (like his equivalents in Egypt) is discredited in the popular mind for having collaborated with a corrupt and oppressive regime and for pushing a neo-liberal agenda whose effects would be to make life even harder for the poor. I would suggest that Dardari was nobbled by a combinatiion of his own pretensions (fed by over-enthusiastic would-be foreign investors), the Baath party and sections of the business elite–and ultimately of course by the lack of effective support from the president.

Any new government in Syria would have to go back to these ideas and decide whether there is still a place for liberal economic policies–which would be guaranteed to receive significant external financial support from the IMF and the World Bank–or whether the answer is to revert to a more sttae-centred model. Arguing for the former approach would be a challenge of intellectual honesty. We have already seen in Egypt that the caretaker government was not up to this challenge, and retreated into a muddled policy of self-reliance that will probably only store up more problems for the future.

Ehsani:

Unless this government liberalizes the economy properly, it is inconceivable that the economy will improve by much. Rather than heading in that direction, the recent crisis has brought out the anti-economic reformers back with a vengeance. The reformers are now on the run. They are blamed for everything now. In this atmosphere, this country will suffer further for years to come. Socialist policies have not worked. They have made the country poor. They have made corruption widespread. Sadly, one is hard pressed to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

One of the major headwinds in Syria is low money velocity. Not to get technical but this refers to how much income and production is produced per one dollar of currency in circulation and bank deposits. The lower this number is (velocity), the more hoarding and less risk taking there is. Syria is caught in a very low money velocity due to the lack of animal spirit and trust in the system which allows for both borrowing and lending. The money essentially stays dormant inside the banking system or under mattresses. This situation existed even before the crisis.

Ehsani take on the notion that the West is in decline:

The U.S. households borrowed way too much between 1997 and 2007 as speculation mounted in the real estate sector. This was due to lax regulation and loose monetary policy. Since that particular bubble burst, it will take years for household balance sheets to be restored. The inability of households to borrow and spend meant that the government had to step in and boost borrowing and spending to make sure that the money supply and economic growth does not collapse. The U.S. economy is still growing but not nearly at the level that is needed to lower the 9.2% unemployment rate. Yes, by some measures it is even higher. This process of repairing balance sheets takes a long time as Japan as found out. The U.S. could be in this slow growth period for a decade till household feel that their balance sheets are restored. For the record, the size of the U.S. e!

conomy is still $15 trillion (yearly income/production). Households in the U.S carry a debt of $13.8 trillion but have assets that are worth $ 71.9 trillion. Those assets are made up of financial assets amounting to $48.8 trillion and tangible assets adding up to $23 trillion. In other words, despite the high $13.8 trillion in debt, household asset values are enormous. The difference between the two is networth and is currently at $58 trillion. This means that every U.S household has an average networth equal to 3.86 of yearly income (networth/gdp).

The EU issues incidentally also stem from excessive borrowing in the southern nations. Countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain (and even Italy) were not used to low single digit interest rates. After they joined, they could not resist the temptation to borrow. The bills are now coming home. They too will suffer from years of slow growth as they curtail borrowing.

Ehsani on the sectoral mix of the Syrian Economy

The last published figures by the Central Bank were for 2009. The size of the economy then was supposedly $54 Billion.

  • Agriculture share = 22%
  • Mining and manufacturing (oil) = 25%
  • Building and construction = 3%
  • Wholesale and retail trade = 23%
  • Transport and communication = 10%
  • Finance and Insurance = 5%
  • Social and personal services = 2%
  • Government services = 10%

Comments (177)


why-discuss said:

Al-Moallem discuses with Iraqi Premier regional situation

http://www.dp-news.com/pages/detail.aspx?articleid=85734

Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Sufian Allaw discussed with his Iraqi couterpart Abdul-Karim Luaibi cooperation in the field of oil and gas and means of transferring Iraqi oil production to the Mediterranean across Syria. The two sides signed a memo of understanding on establishing a network of oil and gas pipelines to transfer Iraqi crude oil and gas across Syria.

Syrian Pharmaceutical Industries Sector

Abdul-Muhsen said that Iraq imports 90% of its medicinal needs; thus, this agreement will open the door for the Syrian factories to export their products to Iraq.

On Tuesday too, Minister of health discussed with a delegation of Italian companies’ representatives best means of cooperation in order to amend equipments for Aleppo and Homs oncology centers.

Minister Al-Halqi said that the Ministry, in cooperation with European Investment Bank and Curie institute for oncology, pointed out at the importance of operating the two centers as soon as possible.

For their parts, members of the Italian delegation expressed their readiness to cooperate at amending the equipments for the two centers after reviewing all the details related.

July 12th, 2011, 5:20 pm

 

Aboud said:

“one is yet to hear a fundamental rethinking of the failed policies that brought us here in the first place.”

It’s not fair to blame junior for this. After all, yet again he’s just following the Iranian model which goes “Economics is for donkeys” (Ayatollah Khomeini)

I don’t see how the opposition can be expected to formulate a detailed economic plan, when many details of the current state of the Syrian economy are not transparent, and reliable statistics are not available.

If we don’t even know what the real economic growth figures were for last year, how on Earth can one know which sectors are profitable or have high growth potential? Can anyone even say for sure what percentage of the population is in each age bracket?

The fact is, I doubt even the regime has a clear picture of the state of Syria’s economy. But what we do know is that the people currently in charge have done a lousy job of things for the past 40 years. One doesn’t need Nobel Economics Prize expertise to know that.

Simply put, one cannot plan a trip without a reliable map. It’s no good planing a detour around a mountain just to find impassable swamps surrounding it on all four sides.

And what’s the point of a detailed economic plan if there isn’t a fair, solid and transparent legal structure and framework for it to flourish in. Everyone has their priorities, and personally speaking, mine are to live in a society where the rule of the law is respected, *then* I’ll worry about how to finance Homs’s first water-park.

(ie even if I had the most detailed map available, and the most detailed plan for getting across it, no way in hell am I stepping foot out my door if I knew I run the risk of getting robbed every kilometer along my trip)

As things now stand, it’s hard enough getting a refund when they cut our Internet lines for two weeks straight (promises, promises and yet more promises….)

July 12th, 2011, 5:23 pm

 

EHSANI2 said:

Aboud,

you said that you “don’t see how the opposition can be expected to formulate a detailed economic plan, when many details of the current state of the Syrian economy are not transparent, and reliable statistics are not available”.

This is a fair point. I did have a similar paragraph in my original text which I decided to delete. I did this because I still believe that the various members of the opposition must spell out at least their general economic principals simply to enhance the credibility of their platform. Egypt is a case in point.

More specifically, answering my set of questions above can be done regardless of whether current GDP has been growing at 3% or 6% in the recent past. One rule of thought that I have used is to assume that things are worse than advertised. Mr. Al Sharaa validated the merit of this strategy this morning.

July 12th, 2011, 6:33 pm

 

Aliccie said:

wow, this is THE question that we hardly ever see in all these ‘arab arisings’. And i am simply boggled by the ignorance and disinterest that the economic question entails or provokes. Ok, justice and human rights are obviously paramount, but it doesn’t mean that the REAL situation shouldn’t be addressed at every moment of any revolution.

Funny, as Me, a simple lamda French national but residing presently in GB, wrote today to a friend who wants to go somewhere on holiday that why not Tunisia whose hotels are empty, and in support of their revolution.

Instead of spending millions on arms and ‘security’, Syria should spend money on the best advisors on how to change their economy. I don’t know how it works over there, but these quotes seem to be from another time, ‘socialism’ is fine in principle but in practise means a huge public parasitical sector and loads of red tape to do anything and laziness and immobility.

What is needed is a good balance between protection of the poor the weak the ill, the pensions and family benefits but a thriving competitive private sector that are free to create and PROVIDE that what is needed and desired by the population. Sanctions are not going to help Syria, neither copying Iranian economics, as they, are a hellish system mired in islamic and corrupt methods..

July 12th, 2011, 7:01 pm

 

jad said:

النشرة الاقتصادية 12-7-2011
http://youtu.be/qzlTDDt2dGw?t=3m4s

إلى أبناء الشعب السوري الأبي – ليرة بلدي ….مستقبل ولدي
by حملة دعم الاقتصاد السوري

في خضم الحملة الكبيرة التي تتعرض لها سوريا وفي خضم التحالف العالمي الكبير الساعي للنيل من سوريا وفي سابقة خطيرة… تسعى ليس إلى الاعتراض او إظهار موقف سياسي معين قد نختلف او نتفق معه, تقوم حملة مشبوهة للنيل من الدولة السورية و تسعى لتدمير اقتصادنا الوطني وذلك بحجج واهية كاذبة.

الاقتصاد الوطني هو اقتصاد الشعب هو رزق وقوت الشعب السوري كله بغض النظر عن انتمائه السياسي , والحملة تهدف الى تقويض الدولة وممتلكات الشعب وليس الى مواجهة النظام كما يدعون فضرب الاقتصاد يدمر الدولة وليس النظام .

وكما تتم المواجهة ميدانيا مع المخربين من قبل جيشنا الباسل وسياسيا من قبل الدبلوماسية السورية والكترونيا كما يقوم الجيش السوري الالكتروني ندعوكم إلى مواجهة هذه الحملة التي تهدف لتدمير سوريا اقتصاديا وذلك من خلال التالي :

1 – السعي إلى اقتناء شهادات استثمار من فئة ج

2 – الالتزام والمبادرة إلى دفع الفواتير من مبدأ أخلاقي وديني ووطني

3 – الالتزام بالكميات اللازمة فقط من المحروقات وعدم تخزين ما لا نحتاجه حاليا

4 – قيام المغتربين بتحويل كميات من المبالغ المالية بالعملة الصعبة الى البلد

5 – قيام التجار بإيداع مبالغ بالليرة السورية في المصارف

6 – قيام حملات شعبية كبيرة لدعم الليرة السورية

7 – الالتزام بالأسعار وعدم رفعها وعدم إتباع الاحتكار والتخزين للمواد التموينية الأساسية

8 – مراقبة من يقوم باستجرار كميات كبيرة من المازوت المدعوم و بشكلل متكرر وتنبيه الجهات المعنية

9 – التبليغ عن أي محاولات لتهريب المواد المدعومة من قبل الدولة

10 – تشجيع المغتربين على العودة إلى بلدهم كعادتهم خلال الصيف والاستفادة منهم كرمى لبلدهم

واجبنا أن نحمي بلدنا واجبنا أن نحمي اقتصادنا ان ندعم ليرتنا, يوم عن يوم تتكشف المؤامرة التي تحاك على سوريا , انها مؤامرة تستهدف الشعب والدولة السورية في الصميم وليس فقط النظام , لن ندخر جهدا في مواجهتها وإننا صامدون .

قاوم بالكلمة والمال والرصاص , قاوم بما تستطيع فهذه سوريا

https://www.facebook.com/notes/%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A/%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%B9%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%A8%D9%84-%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%8A/180998158626364

July 12th, 2011, 7:11 pm

 

AIG said:

Ehsani,

The question of economics cannot be isolated from that of foreign policy. Do Syrians want to be part of the globalized economy or not? If yes, it will have consequences for Syria’s foreign policy. Some Syrians may interpret that as being puppets of the West. My point is that economic policy cannot stand on its own.

July 12th, 2011, 7:22 pm

 

Tara said:

# 4

Quite interesting. Item 10 in post # 4 is to encourage the Syrian expats to visit Syria in the Summer. How would the Syrian Americans feel safe to visit Syria during the summer with reports of ambassador Imad Mustafa taping anti regime demonstrators and being summoned to the State Department for investigation?

Has the embassy bothered with an explanation to the Syrian American community.

Or should this community just use ” good faith” and trust a safe entry? Is good faith even possible?

July 12th, 2011, 7:27 pm

 

Tara said:

Ehsani2

Hello.

Excuse my ignorance but Could you tell us what constitute the current Syrian economy? Tourism, industry, farming, Finance?

July 12th, 2011, 7:40 pm

 

aboali said:

an officer holding a rifle and instructing troops on how to shoot Homs – Friday http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXua5cjkfO8

I thought JR gave clear orders for his troops not to shoot. Do they just ignore the dude? Or is it duck hunting season in Bishmerka territory in Iraq where this obviously fake 3ar3oury video was taken (what the pro-regime crowd will inevitably say).

July 12th, 2011, 8:03 pm

 

Syria no kandahar said:

ابو عبدو شرلوك هولمز الاخوانجي
You seem to have super analytic power and able to tell what is behind your videos .good job Mr sharif.By the way mr pro-Aroor what was your take on the big red duck asking for the ottomans to occupy your country,did you feel proud about it ,I am sure you did.MB sheiks are all source of nationalism from Hassn Albna until Alaroor,we look as the wind which puts off any candl we still have lightened in our dark nights.
Not interested in your answer,I am like a bleach which cleans this please after you.

July 12th, 2011, 8:19 pm

 

Abughassan said:

Who wrote the constitution in Syria?
Answer: the party that is largely irrelevant today
Solution: rewrite that darn constitution
As for those “rumors” , give me few more days. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the motherland..

July 12th, 2011, 8:46 pm

 

aboali said:

#9 toz feek, wa fe 3ar3or wa fee Bashar wa fee il Ikhwan.

As if Syrians are destined to be ruled by one kind of tyrant or another for all of their history. Syrians are tired of dictators, we don’t want to replace one with another kind. The Ikhwan will never rule Syria, although they may well have a large number of representatives in parliament and a few ministers, but that’s it. We don’t want Baath secular authoritarianism replaced with theocracy, what would be the point of this revolution in the first place.

You still didn’t explain what that officer was doing in the video did you?

July 12th, 2011, 8:52 pm

 

Jad said:

ابو غسّان
من تمك لبواب السما.

July 12th, 2011, 8:54 pm

 

daleandersen said:

Memo To: ABUGHASSAN

RE: “…as for those ‘rumors,’ give me few more days. There is light at the end of the tunnel…”

No, there isn’t.

First of all, there is no tunnel. There is only an abyss and when you stare down into the abyss, you see it staring back up at you.

http://playwrighter.blogspot.com/2011/06/stuck-in-damascus-with-memphis-blues.html

July 12th, 2011, 8:58 pm

 

Norman said:

The economy is one of the biggest problem that Syria faces but before the parties can have a comprehensive program for Syria, Syria has to have a political system that gives the opportunity to the party that wins to implement his vision and plan that he ran on ,

July 12th, 2011, 9:10 pm

 

daleandersen said:

Memo To: ABOALI

re: “…we don’t want Baath secular authoritarianism replaced with theocracy…”

Why not? Theocrats are popular in the Middle East. Look at Hizbollah. Look at Iran. Theocracy might be the coming thing. At least, theocrats have answers. That’s more than you can say for Bashar.

And if nothing else, mullahs and imams are better dressers than Baathists…well, maybe not better than Asma…

http://playwrighter.blogspot.com/2011/07/rock-casbah-yeahhhhhhhhhhhh.html

July 12th, 2011, 9:10 pm

 

Majed97 said:

The out of control population growth in Syria, and throughout the Middle East, is the biggest threat to the region’s security. The irresponsible reproductive behavior of people in the region is beyond any government’s ability to manage, particularly in a country like Syria where resources are very limited. No economic plan in the world is capable of meeting the needs of a population growing as fast as in Syria.

The culture is out of touch with a reality where marriage and children bearing are highly promoted as a religious duty. I think what the Arab world really needs is a cultural and sexual revolution to rebel against their medieval practices that are highly destructive to society and individuals alike. Middle Easterners need to find the courage to acknowledge their sexuality and work on overcoming their fear of male/female relations. Gender relations in the Middle East are pathetic. Men and women hardly understand each other. Our youths are living in sexual deprivation and denial. Their sexual frustration is distracting them from focusing on anything else. They pretend to be compliant with obsolete traditions while secretly pursuing any and all convoluted sexual opportunities where ever found. They are wasting their lives fanaticizing about sex and romance. Arab culture is far out of sync with the rest of the world; yet Middle Easterners fanaticizes about being part of the western culture. Let’s face it, marriage is primarily sexually driven in the Middle East, and birth control is hardly an option in a region that is far outgrowing its resources, causing a population explosion that no system of government is capable of managing. We need to find the courage to admit our cultural problems, as we seek political freedom.

July 12th, 2011, 9:15 pm

 

Abughassan said:

Israelis and pro Israel posters are not part of our conversation.

July 12th, 2011, 10:17 pm

 

Sheila said:

Dear Ihsani,
Fabulous article. Good analysis of the current situation. however, I do not share the same feeling that the opposition needs to articulate an economic policy at this point in time. I think that the demonstraters demands for freedom include both political and economic. After forty some years of these thugs, Syria is in utter economic ruin. The public sector is a joke, the private sector is a web of alliances with these thugs to get anything done, and even agriculture is in shambles. The best economic plan for now would be to get rid of this mafia that is sucking the life out of this country and then work on ending corruption. To think that Syria is going to be great immediately after the fall of this regime is very naive. It is going to take at least a generation to detox. However, I do have a lot of faith in the Syrian people. They are very creative resourceful people. Given the chance, I can assure you that many businesses will be started and new industries will flourish.

July 12th, 2011, 10:21 pm

 

Revlon said:

Dear Ehsani2,
Thank you for challenging interested/expert Syrians to come up with alternative framework/plan to improve the performance of the Syrian economy.

First, an economic plan/vision, even in principles is not a priority and may prove utopian.

– The Syrian people can and could have continued to cope with the same system for years to come.
– The Syrian people have managed to survive and cope with the economic hardships, in spite of years of mishandling of the economy and rampant corruption that have been gobbling most of the country’s resources
– If one were to check the slogans chanted by the demonstrators or the grievances and aspirations communicated on the web pages, one would not find anything about raising salaries, increasing or keeping oil subsidies, or creating jobs for 300,000 per annum.
– What one would find are two repeating themes: Freedom, and Justice to fight corruption and achieve equality.
– Most if not all of those who are demonstrating are not hungry. But all carry a deep sense of injustice. Resolve that and you remove the basic reason for this revolution.
– Syrian people in general, and the demonstrating sector in particular are moderate conservatives and religious.
They accept the uneven distribution of wealth and poverty with graceousness and regard it as a divine wisdome of the creator. They would do so as long as their freedom and equality to improve their lives is guaranteed.

Second, In order to come up with the right economic recipe you need to consult the true representatives of the people to whom it is addressed.
– In order for any economic plan to work,it has to be compatible with and empowered by an obliging adminstrative and judicial structure.

Third, Having said that, It might be useful for the opposition to start debating their visions for Syrian econmy.
– The young activists on the ground and on the web are not to blame, for they do not have the skills or experience for such task.
– The traditional opposition has been slow to formulate or communicate their grand plans concerning a whole gamut of issues relating to political, judicial, and economical reforms. The lack of first hand experience with Syrian economic problems and easily accessible forums for debating and communicating such plans are largely to blame.
– The traditional opposition activists on the ground are suited for such task. Economics experts, especially but not only those who served this regime are in a good position to provide their personal vision for kick starting the economy in a free democratic system.

Finaly, dear Mr. Ehsani2, as a responsible Syrian and given a mandate as an Economics advisor to come up with an appropriate plan, please advise us, what should and could the Syrian economy achieve in 1, 5, and 10 years, in a free and democratic System?

July 12th, 2011, 10:23 pm

 

Observer said:

Historically speaking, migrations and invasions and strife occur when there are scarcity of resources.

There are two major elements at play here: the first is about 50 years of total mismanagement and graft coupled with an exploding population on the one hand and the other is the regional uncompetitiveness with emerging economies of the Far East.

The trend will be to force the oil rich countries to invest and rebuild in those countries otherwise the Syrians and Jordanians and Palestinians and all those that do not have the oil will essentially create so much turmoil in their travails of revolution that the oil rich countries will have to cough up the oil wealth. Otherwise they will be invaded, especially as Europe has limited capacity to absorb massive migrations.

The second trend will be for the wise Europeans to invest in the South in general and the Arab world in particular to use the young population to maintain some standard of living on the one hand and to stifle any migration desires. It is monumental in view of the current financial mess that the world is facing.

I do not think that 80 million Egyptians, 24 million Syrians, 10 million Jordanians and add to that Tunisians will sit idly by while the oil rich countries continue to have maximal wealth with small populations.

On a more philosophical point and to go back to the enlightened times of Islamic Jurisprudence it is a known paradigm that resources that are considered scarce and yet essential to humanity are considered to belong to the general public whereas private property can be allowed if enough of the resources are available.It is a flexible doctrine and can change with changing resources and population demands. Therefore, in the past acquiring a private water well was accepted in the Lebanese mountains and valleys and prohibited in the Syrian desert as water was scarce and therefore became public property de jure and automatically. If this was applied in the North East of Syria we would not have had a drought and as a matter of fact, the previous policies established grazing space rather than the massive farms that pumped the water table dry under the current regime mismanagement.

I would argue that essential resources that benefit all of humanity should be public to all and if oil has become scarce then it should be for the use of all of humanity. Likewise in this day and age, know how and technology are to become public domains for all humans and sharing of advances in medicine and engineering should be complete and equal.

I know this does not address the specifics of our prominent Ehsani comment today but I would predict that the oil rich countries and in concert with the Europeans and hopefully the Chinese will have to pitch in if they want some modicum of stability in the region. If not there will internal civil wars that will spill and destroy the region bit by small bit.

The cultural background to the Arab and Muslim societies is based on a structure of enlightened authority coupled with a very strong public commitment to the common good. Wild capitalism will be a catastrophe for all if left to run amock after the change in regime. Participatory form of government is inevitable.

July 12th, 2011, 10:57 pm

 

Darryl said:

17. Majed97 said

Very well said. I was going to say the same thing. I know of no economic system that will generate a half million jobs per year that Syria needs. President Assad has talked about this issue many times too. Is it any wonder that all Arab and Islamic countries have such a problem along with Catholic countries of South America.

July 12th, 2011, 11:04 pm

 

louai said:

Sorry for the comment that is out of contest ,but I would love to ask the revolutionists here ,how do you like to deal with ‘honour crimes’ in the new Syria? thank you

أقدم شخصان على الأقل من عائلة على قتل مراهقة في السادسة عشرة من عمرها في الشيخ سعيد جنوبي حلب يوم الاثنين بسبب ” الدافع الشريف “.

وقال مصدر في شرطة حلب لسيريانيوز ” قتلت فتاة عمرها 16 سنة وتدعى ” ز – ع ” على يد أفراد من عائلتها وذلك بسبب دافع شريف حيث كانت المغدورة غادرت منزل ذويها وتزوجت شاباً قبل أن يقنعها ذووها بالعودة لتزويجه رسمياً مبيتين النية لقتلها “.
و أوضح المصدر أن الفتاة قتلت في المنزل وبين الكشف الطبي إصابتها بعدة طلقات نارية من عيارين مختلفين إضافة إلى طعنات بسكين “.
و أضاف المصدر ” تم توقيف والدها وشقيق لها فيما توارى آخر عن الأنظار حيث يشتبه في أن اثنين منهم على الأقل أحدهما الأب قاما بقتلها ، ثم ذهبا إلى منزل حبيبها و أطلقا النار على والده الذي أصيب برصاصة في رقبته “.
http://www.syria-news.com/readnews.php?sy_seq=134907
سيريانيوز – حلب

July 12th, 2011, 11:59 pm

 

daleandersen said:

Memo To: ABUGHASSAN

Re: “…Israelis and pro Israel posters are not part of our conversation…”

This isn’t Syria, Dude. This is the Internet. You don’t make the rules here.

http://playwrighter.blogspot.com/2011/04/united-states-recognition-of-israel.html

July 13th, 2011, 12:29 am

 

Simon said:

It is about time to address the economical pattern for the future Syrian society,this is an inspiring article and I agree totally with the contents.
However,I think that finding an economical pattern suitable for the next decade,will be a natural end result of the process of the reforms at the political and social level, and I think that it is so hard to set an early model at this stage.
I believe that the multiple parties governing will bring new ideas and create a practical economical style,this has to work parallel with fighting corruption, tax evasion and stop money laundering.
I believe that Syria has enough clever economist to create a suitable programmes.
IMHO Social reforms has more impact on the economical setting of the country.
Establishing birth control mechanism in a religious society is not an easy task and this will be faced with numerous challenges,I totally agree that sex is still considered as big deal and a not perceived as a natural need and has to be disciplined only in a marriage and this lead usually to a severe increase of population.
I believe that we the Syrians lack the sense of urgency and seriousness when working,we need to challenge this cultural issue and we tend to throw the responsibility on others.
If anything this uprising is going to challenge our mindset more than our political believes.
I am going to be positive and yes there is hope and we will do it.
http://www.sana.sy/eng/21/2011/07/12/358018.htm

And no I am not Baathist or Assadist or pro-government,I am free thinker,I can’t belong to any party and I don’t want any more bloodshed in my country.

July 13th, 2011, 12:41 am

 

why-discuss said:

Obama : The president Bashar Al Assad is loosing his legitimacy in the eyes of his people

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7373107n

Hillary Clinton: “From our perspective, he has lost legitimacy, he has failed to deliver on the promises he’s made, he has sought and accepted aid from the Iranians as to how to repress his own people,” Clinton told reporters in an appearance with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in Washington.

July 13th, 2011, 1:29 am

 

SYR.Expat said:

22. LOUAI

“Sorry for the comment that is out of contest ,but I would love to ask the revolutionists here ,how do you like to deal with ‘honour crimes’ in the new Syria? thank you”

The comment is definitely out of context and irrelevant to the discussion. However, you make a good case for why we need to get rid of the current government. For more than 4 decades, the Baathist governments could not deal with this problem.

By the way, I am sorry I can’t answer your question because I am not a revolutionist.

July 13th, 2011, 3:02 am

 

SYR.Expat said:

Dear EHSANI2,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. While this topic is very important, it can’t be effectively addressed while the house is on fire.

July 13th, 2011, 3:18 am

 

Aboud said:

@22 I can’t speak for anyone except myself, but I’d expand “honor crimes” to include men. If a guy is caught fooling around, then his sisters have every right to kill him. *THEN* we will see a big movement to scrap this barbaric practice once and for all.

July 13th, 2011, 3:42 am

 

Mina said:

No economist believe in economy statistics. Recently G. Sachs helped Greece masking its real debt and Greece has admitted that years ago, to join the EU, it had ‘forced the figures’ to help them look better. Isn’t it any accountant job to do so?
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,676634,00.html

July 13th, 2011, 4:12 am

 

Mina said:

Thanks Majed for your positive comment!
The answer of Aroor and some MB is: the natural place of women is at home and when this is done, there is no more job crisis. Naive and pathetic, as everything else they believe.

July 13th, 2011, 4:20 am

 

daleandersen said:

Memo To: SYR.EXPAT

RE: “…how do you deal with ‘honour crimes’ in the new Syria?…”

Good question.

If I were in the revolution and my sister had sex with some alawite lowlife in the al-Mukhabarat, I would have her hauled before a People’s Court on charges of anti-revolutionary activity. The Court would probably sentence her to ten years’ exile and send her to Saudi Arabia to work as a cleaning lady in the house of a fat plutocrat.

Hope that answers your question…

http://playwrighter.blogspot.com/2011/04/arab-news-fox-news-style.html

July 13th, 2011, 4:30 am

 

Amnesia said:

Louai’s question is off topic in a way, but it needs a good answer.

Punishment of crimes is the responsibility of the State. If an individual wishes to bring punishment to someone for anything, it needs to be decided by the courts based on the rule of law. This also follows Islamic guidelines.

This brings the question of what we want the State to be responsible for. Do we want infidelity and marriage before sexual relations written into our laws? Or do we want no punishment at all for these acts?

I am inclined to believe that it’s impractical to enforce any laws on these actions. I say consider murder murder, and assault assault, and leave the rest to the families to sort out.

It is important for us to find a practical balance based on our values and based on what can work for us. There is no good answer. There is only a least bad answer, as no solution will prevent people from having these relationships. Let’s at least forbid the killings.

July 13th, 2011, 4:39 am

 

Amnesia said:

Mina,

“The answer of Aroor and some MB is: the natural place of women is at home and when this is done, there is no more job crisis.”

I’m glad you said “some” and not “all” MB. Naive, yes. Is this what the MB calls for? Definitely not.

Syrian MB members, most of which are overseas, know that education and professionalism for and among women is something to be highly encouraged, practically speaking and Islamically speaking. I just wish for them to be bold enough to say so clearly.

July 13th, 2011, 4:47 am

 

John Khouri said:

I arrived in Hamadiyeh,Homs on the 10/3/11. Today a group of thugs from Bab Sibah arrived into the christian area of Hamidiyeh and began chanting slogans against the president and filming the protest at the same time. I can gaurantee u not a single christian was involved in this protest in the area. These islamic extremist are moving from area to area in Homs and filming themselves. 50% of the Hamidiyeh residents have packed and left for the villages in Homs or Halab and Damascus. Nobody dares to walk outside after 10pm. No girl walks alone without a male companion. Is this the freedom and revolution that these islamic extremists want. Last nite at 2am at least 20-50 youths came into the Hamidiyeh area and began chanting “Christians go to Beirut”.

July 13th, 2011, 4:55 am

 

Simon said:

#34
Very sad ,I hope that peace will prevail soon,tell them that the Christians were in Syria 7 thousands years ago and this is what our president Assad said to them already.

July 13th, 2011, 5:01 am

 

HS said:

Yesterday’s 172. Aboud said:
“”
@171 The link you posted talks about circumstances where a person may be denied entry into the USA (nothing whatsoever about being barred permanently)

To have “denied entry permanently” on your passport is pretty serious stuff. It just doesn’t happen the way your friend described it.

Once more, urban legends being passed off as facts….
“”
At # 168 you said that it was impossible.

Now you say it is an urban legend but you are not able to prove it.

Next you will say that I am a liar and this was not the case of the person I mentioned.

Anyway, I will not argue with you about the color of the stamp or the exact mention on the passport ( the end result is the same ), it was about the corruption and its cultural root
and you fail to understand it:

A Syrian way of negotiating perfectly suited in Syria in Asia and in Europe gets you in trouble in the US.

He uses to say jokingly of this person that
if a passerby in the street asks him for the time , he will start a dialogue and , after 10 minutes , he is the passerby’s best friend and he have convinced him to buy a factory of Homsi watch.

July 13th, 2011, 5:09 am

 

Amnesia said:

I wanted to give some quick thoughts on the topics of jobs and the economy. This is far from solving the coming crisis, but our discussion is a start.

I spoke yesterday of corruption, and the grievances Syrians have because of it. No economy can flourish without first tackling corruption.

In the past, I have thought of opening businesses in Syria, different kinds. It is an attractive idea, not just to live in my homeland. Syria is missing a lot of services, which means I can easily find customers. Although many workers lack skills necessary to do different jobs, many are well-educated hard workers and can easily be trained. Wages are low, so competing internationally is relatively easy. There are many good things about doing business in Syria and employing people, but…..

Corruption. If I wish to open a company in many other countries, I will know before doing anything step-by-step what it will take. There are unknowns, but setting up is relatively straightforward. Syria, our Syria, is a different story. How do I know I can set up without delays or problems? How do I know who will demand bribes, and who will shut me down or otherwise harass if I don’t? How do I know that the company will always be mine, and never be stolen as others have experienced?

One of the mandatory solutions to the jobs crisis: End corruption.

That won’t be enough of course, but it will be important. The government cannot depend on businesses to do everything to create jobs on their own. They must be freed to flourish, but the government has to study industries that can be founded in Syria, that can be helped along. It will take a lot of effort to find ways for job creation. Opportunities in other countries to export to, products, services, anything that other nations in the region need, can be opportunities for businesses in Syria. Anything that is imported or will need to be imported in the future, a whole range of products and new services, can be made and provided by Syrian businesses. If Syrian individual potential entrepreneurs, rich or poor, have ideas that look to be good, funding them somehow will boost the nation.

Regarding specifics, anything written now can become outdated tomorrow. Any research needs to be continuous, ongoing, needs to never stop.

July 13th, 2011, 5:11 am

 

Amnesia said:

John Khouri,

These are not extremists, nor thugs. These are youth, uneducated youth. What you quoted them saying shows this. If you are worried that the youth are learning wrong things with this slogan (I myself worry), then please get the word to the opposition organizers that these slogans need to stop. They will take your concerns seriously, and if they have any control over the youth you referred to (they don’t control everybody of course!!), they will put an end to what you witnessed.

I hope the correct message is put out.

July 13th, 2011, 5:20 am

 

Amir in Tel Aviv said:

I never believed the 6% figure, to begin with. Where is that growth coming from? new discovered oil fields? more rain in the north east? hi-tech industry? many more pistachios picked?

So I wasn’t surprised when Mr Farouk AlSharaa confessed the obvious. And I’m sure that the new number, randomly picked, 3.7%, is too a fake.

But I was stunned by the blunt ‘khutzpa’. To forge the national numbers is criminal. Economic data is not a private property. This belongs to the people. Manipulating the numbers equals manipulating and lying to the Syrian people. Was this happening in Israel, someone would go to many years in prison.
.

July 13th, 2011, 5:37 am

 

Aboud said:

Here we go again, “John Khouri”, the fake Homsi Christian who a month ago couldn’t even tell me what was on the front page of a weekly classified. I think we can take his statements with the same skepticism as we do all of junior’s claims of armed thugs.

July 13th, 2011, 5:49 am

 

Simon said:

#34
I knew it was a spam somehow.

July 13th, 2011, 5:51 am

 

Aboud said:

@37 Amnesia, “John Khouri” is lying. I live in Homs and I have never, not once, heard the slogans he claims to have. This guy has a sad history on Syria Comment. He claimed to be living in Homs but couldn’t even tell me what the front page of the local classified weekly was.

If John Khouri really heard these slogans, he should have shot the scene with his mobile phone. How is it that the only people in Syria who can’t prove anything with Youtube are the Baathists.

@35 Again, you did not understand either the link you posted, nor my comment, nor (apparently) your friend’s story. This “permanently denied entry” is an urban legend, and not a very new one at that. An American border guard can deny entry, but not permanently.

July 13th, 2011, 5:54 am

 

ANONYMOUS said:

EHSANI2:

One day, your question will be relevant, but for the immediate future, you are asking the wrong people the wrong question at the wrong time.

The government has had 40 years to develop the economy. The current “reformist” government of Al-Assad has had 11 years to reform the economy but as we have all witnessed, corruption has skyrocketed over the past decade under his absolute authority. The gap between “haves” and “have-nots” has widened significantly. When the government is a family and the country is run as its personal possession, you cant expect there to be any economic policy that works for the people. Syria has been run for Al-Assad’s personal wealth accumulation,this cannot be disputed.

The government has failed at both its economic policy (if one exists) and its “security and stability” policy via its own claims of “hundreds/thousands of salafi gunmen roaming the country wreaking havoc…etc”. This means its time to go.

A quick comment on some of your statements/questions:

“….However, it is a fact that not a single camp in this so-called opposition has articulated a well thought-out economic alternative….”

—The “so-called” opposition is too busy being murdered/arrested and tortured to think about ‘economic policy’. The poor of Syria not only have to endure dismal economic conditions for which they are helpless to change under an authoritarian system that distributes benefits to those “in the family”, but they now endure the full force of the brutality of the security forces that are supposed to protect them because of their (majority) peaceful protests.

End the bloodshed. Allow people to live as free humans and then we can discuss.

“….The opposition, for example, is yet to offer a single credible plan that would explain to the Syrian people how their lives may improve under different leadership…..”

—Different leadership, any leadership would most likely halt the arbitrary arrests, forced disappearances and murders and brutal torture. To me, that sounds like a plan. The current policy of murder is not good for the economy under an system. Any new government will realize this (murder citizens = bad)

“….In light of the current trends in population growth, what will happen to the subsidies? Will the Syrian treasury be able to afford paying close to $8 billion a year in subsidies and for how long? Is there a plan to replace them with cash assistance to the lower income groups only?…”

— Subsidies dont work. They never have and they never will. With the end of massive corruption and imposition of some trade barriers (to stop the flow of cheap crap entering the country and ruining lives), this will be a very basic start (and to all the capitalist/globalists out there, please save me the “protectionist” argument, capitalism as we know it has been a failure).

An end to fractional reserve banking (before it really starts to take off in Syria) is a good start as well, as inherent bubbles/recession are built into the system and called the “business cycle”. The anchoring of the currency to precious metals will also allow for a more stable system. A more closed-loop economic system would work much better in Syria as towns trade with each-other more than abroad. This will flatten the social pyramid society we have now.

“…..What will the country do about the public sector? Fewer than 10 percent of the 260 public enterprises are profitable. How long can the country keep throwing good money after bad? Will we keep promising to reform this sector with the most predictable of outcomes?….”

— Not long. The government sector needs to be shrunk to a fraction of its current size. How? When? Why? Who? will this happen / carry this out? Remains to be seen, however the Baath Party has had long enough to contemplate this issue and reform it, they failed. Time to go and make way for a new way since any other policy will be better than the current “top 1% benefit, the rest can goto hell” policy.

“…Will the government act to control population growth and how?…”

—Governments should never intervene in population growth. All governments that have done so have failed in their objective and face massive issues now (Japan, China, Europe…etc) Humans have a right to live and a right to create life via procreation as they see fit. End of story.

“…How will the economy grow enough to generate nearly 300,000 jobs a year?..”

— For the next 5-10 years it wont. Radical economic policy changes (or in our case, a brand new system as the one in place now cannot be called “economic policy”) take many years to bear fruit. A free Syria will find a way. Ideas will flow and it will happen. At least you wont have to get approval from the mukhabaraat to open a business…which is probably the only and by one of the many retarded “economic policies” that the Baath Party has.

“…The time for a national dialogue on the economy is now. The leadership must lead the charge and offer the country a progressive, bold and inspiring new path forward….”

—No, the time for the murder to stop and allow people to speak their minds freely is now. The time to allow people to choose their own destiny and fate is now. the time for free will is now. The time for dialogue is after this policy of murder/arrest and torture ends. The government has failed in all areas of political/social and economic development.

Time is up. Game Over.

Exit Al-Assad

Peace

ANONYMOUS

July 13th, 2011, 5:55 am

 

Simon said:

To # 39

Liar,Liar,pant on fire !!!!

July 13th, 2011, 6:00 am

 

Aboud said:

“Liar,Liar,pant on fire !!!!”

>_<

July 13th, 2011, 6:12 am

 

HS said:

On “Syria’s Leadership and Opposition Need an Economic Policy,” by Ehsani

I always regard the economic growth figures as usually ( in any country )
– manipulated : for political reasons
– unreliable due to the underground economy ( Italy in the 90’s , Syria ) , smuggling , etc
– meaningless : The reconstruction after the Japanese earthquake will boost the figure but not the well being of the poupulation
– irrelevant to the employment rate : when there is a large social and public sector which is unaccounted for.

I previously said here that an efficient opposition had to recognize that the problem of Syria comes
from a high birthrate to backward mentality ( or Mentality Backward )

The liberal model imported from the US – cutting the subsidies, dismantling the public sector and social welfare – had disastrous side effects on some countries ( Russia , Eastern European countries ) on the education and health care among others.

Nobody mentions the horrendous military budget !!

These problems will not be solved ( even tackled ) as long the opposition’s unrest will drive the economy to a standstill.

When your home is burning , you call for the firemen
not the arsonists with Backward Mentality
nor the architects to draw plans for a new fancy house you can afford.

July 13th, 2011, 6:26 am

 

Aboud said:

@45 The “burning house” analogy doesn’t excuse the regime’s ineptness for the past 11 (40?) years. In any profession, if someone had failed to show results on the job the way junior has, he’d be replaced.

July 13th, 2011, 6:33 am

 

John Khouri said:

ABOUD –

if u really in homs i will invite u for a fruit cocktail at the “Bluestone” cafe near the hamidiyeh. I will be their at 7pm tonight. Dont worry i will pay 🙂 Im at the internet cafe near the Taxi Hamidiyeh area right now. Come past and say hi 🙂 I have nothing to prove to you Mr aboudi. You are more than welcome to join me tonite. We will make a video together and post it on SC . What you think????

July 13th, 2011, 6:33 am

 

mjabali said:

Mr. Ehsani2 thanks for the article.

Syrian Economy is a maze and a mess. A maze because it is consisted from unknown web of government owned businesses and sectors, and a sizable private sector that no law protects and lives only through the alliance between power and capital. A mess: because we do not know a lot about it and yet we can see it around:big and clumsy with no potential for progress trying to find solutions for an escalating number of those seeking employment and food.

The Socialist aspect of Hizb al-Baath and the laws it enforce are bad for the economy and its growth as times have proved to us. These laws need to be changed.

This socialism, its supporters would say, gives the citizen of Syria free medicine and free education and support in many sectors. This is the trade the proponents of Socialism brag about, but, it is a bribe of a sort plus it increases the dependence of citizens on the state. This money is taken away from other projects Syria needs, like technical universities, or how to stimulate agriculture and new usage of clean energy?

The population growth is a HUGE problem. That also needs to be dealt with fast especially with the dwindling amount of water available. How you gonna feed them or where you gonna find water for them? Damascus drinks from a shrinking little spring!!!!

What need to be changed are the LAWS and the overall strategy.

Free market laws should be adopted by both the Assad government and the opposition.

Free market laws improves the creative process because it protects inventions and consequently improve freedom of speech and human rights and the legal system, something Syria does not know and of course needs.

The Laws that need to be made should protect businesses and capital. Capital that should be protected and connected the world international markets, something Syria had not witnessed and desperately need.

The socialist undertone is bad and outdated, and above all of that, no one wants it. The question here is regarding the citizens: will they need the benefits the state used to give them, or a new economical opportunity is better for them?

It is a very complicated matter in a very troubled place. You need political stability to achieve economical stability. You need cultural stability to control the high birth rate. There are lots of things Syrian economy needs because we all see the destruction that is taking place right now and the stagnation that had taken place for a while.

July 13th, 2011, 6:34 am

 

Tara said:

John khouri,

Can you please stonp insinuating that no single Christian is part of this revolution. Even on SC, there are Christian and Alawites who support the revolution.

July 13th, 2011, 6:39 am

 

HS said:

Sorry , I mistyped in my last paragraph and I correct it just in case someone fails to understand )

When your home is burning , you call for the firemen
not the arsonists with Backward Mentality
nor the architects to draw plans for a new fancy house you canNOT afford.

July 13th, 2011, 6:44 am

 

Aboud said:

@ 47 “We will make a video together and post it on SC . What you think????”

*facepalm* Is this your way on asking me out on a date?

So tell me, how many pages was Al Wasila this Saturday?

July 13th, 2011, 6:49 am

 

HS said:

48. mjabali said:
…… raised some valuable issues …

“”
You need cultural stability to control the high birth rate.
“”

Please can you elaborate !

July 13th, 2011, 7:00 am

 

Tara said:

Louai,

In my opinion, honor crime should be delt with as regular crimes and should not get any leniency. Hate crime on the other hand should get extra punishment.

The sad thing, is the more this revolution goes on, the higher chance that other sinister elements may take over and prevent us from achieving a true secular government. It becomes pretty annoying that even on SC, denouncing Aroor et al, makes no difference what so ever and I \’ll repeat whatsoever in the rhetoric of the supporters and still accuse the opposition of being Aroori even the Christian one, they suddenly become Christian ikhwan.

How is a true national dialogue can occur whenTakhween and Araara are the relentless
theme. We can not have it on SC, let alone in Syria itself.

July 13th, 2011, 7:07 am

 

ALICCIE said:

@Majed

what you say is what I’ve thought for a while. I read about a sexologist in Egypt who deplored the ignorance of sex of most of the youth and he had a TV program that seems to be popular. He said that most divorces were because of sexual ignorance.
The problem of this population explosion, lack of jobs for qualified youth, led to even more frustration as they couldn’t pay for a marriage and had to live at home.

What is needed is sexual education in schools, clinics, and also on the main medias, that teach everything, from contraception to prevention from diseases, biological changes, correct behaviour and equality for girls and women, sharing of personal feelings etc.

I can’t imagine what will become of these population explosions, as europeans went through this after the WII with our ‘baby boom’ and it caused employment problems and now retirement pensions. It means huge housing projects, and infrastruture, but jobs, jobs, jobs. Luckily it happened at a time when development could happen easily, but in the ME, with all these changes and tensions, it’s going to put back development for a few years.

I have great admiration for all the efforts and hardships that people fighting for change are going through, and dearly wish them success. But I do feel that deeper issues like the way too heavy influence of religions don’t get enough coverage and debate, except along stereotyped lines, “Al Qaeda, MB, vs democracy”, “Zionist & western hatred’, when in fact, most of the whole world’s problems come from primitive religious beliefs and the manipulation of populations by greedy power hungry dictators or elites.

It’s time to explode these myths and the hypocrisy like plastic surgery for hymen repair, outward piousness but behind closed doors ‘western’ preferences, TV, music, clothes, beer..

There’s nothing that makes me dismay more than to see Koweity or some other islamic country’s videos of mariages where men dance with each other and women each in seperate rooms ! It’s such a pity as mariages are an opportunity to meet a partner.

Despite my attachment to all the ‘arab arisings’, I always look closely at the videos and watch for how many women are in the crowds, how they are dressed, mixed or seperate, and what place they have on the councils and committees preparing for new elections etc.

People say that the main aim to is get ‘Freedom’ first, but that must also mean freedom for 50% of the population = women. This is FAR from the case.

Freedom also means sexual freedom, the right of women and men to have normal relationships and be free from religious and cultural (and often political) pressures that deprive them of this.

I believe, as you, that it’s all connected, that if you don’t address the fundamental biological reality of people, all the rest is going to go haywire. Contraception has existed since Napolean (so I read), but at least in the west it got over religious taboos in the fifties. Most catholics practice contraception, except as you say in the most backward latin countries or the philipines etc, but in countries like France, Spain, Italy, it took off with the pill in the 60’s.

ps – Daryl and Simon, Aroub = agree.

July 13th, 2011, 7:09 am

 

John khouri said:

Tara – .00001% of Christians and alawites supporting the revolution don’t count sorry. The revolution is made up of islamic extremist and that is why u see 99.9% of Christians ,Druze, alewives,Kurds, and 80% of Sunnis not part of it.

Aboudi – such a pathetic way to prove that u r I’n Homs . I am inviting u for a friendly cocktail and argheli I’n Homs tonight. What is holding u back from coming along ??? This is further proof that u r just like the mysterious eyewitnesses from aljaeera. I’m sitting right Here at the Internet cafe I’n homs near the taxi hamadiyeh rank. Come and meet up for a friendly innocent chat. That is if bur really I’n homs????

July 13th, 2011, 7:11 am

 

Amir in Tel Aviv said:

Aboud,

Forget the Al Wasila. You were invited for a free fruit cocktail. Free!!!. 🙂 Are you going to miss it?
.

July 13th, 2011, 7:16 am

 

Samara said:

ANONYMOUS,

“Time is up. Game Over”

Yes, yes it is. So leave. Call back all your revoltingaries, i mean, revloutionaries. Tell them that the jigs up. BECAUSE AL ASSAD IS HERE TO STAY. AND WE ARE ARE HERE TO STAY. Tell the deluded ones on SC who believe that they live in Syria, eg: Aboudy, that the game is over. And that they started this rev with defeated written all over them. Because they fought first, and then decided to win. That is why they lost. They fought first and then decided to overthrow. That is why they lost. While 3umi Bashar won first, and then he decided to fight. That is how he became victorious.

You know what they say “Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across”. So habibi, we wil start building. Actually, you ca walk through dirt and crap. Even thats too good for you.

July 13th, 2011, 7:16 am

 

Aboud said:

@ 56 Yes, a free drink…served at the local Air Force Intelligence prison.

@55 If you were in Homs, you’d know that my question was a trick one; Al Waseela hasn’t been distributed in weeks. The last time it was, it was only two pages.

@57 Uh OK. Is this the same kind of “victory” that the Baathists tried to convince the country it had won back in 1967?

July 13th, 2011, 7:22 am

 

Samara said:

John khouri,

Wallah you are right! Tara sees all the above as revolution friendly yet she is oblivious to the Islamic extrimists who run it.

July 13th, 2011, 7:25 am

 

Tara said:

John Khouri,

Did I expect a different answer? Not really.

Aboud,

As your co-revolutionist, I urge you not to try to prove anything to anybody. They are not worth it. Don’t you think?

July 13th, 2011, 7:31 am

 

Aboud said:

@60 After a few months on this website, I don’t need to prove anything to anyone. *They* have to prove themselves to my satisfaction. They haven’t even come close.

Obama sounds pissed off at junior today….

July 13th, 2011, 7:51 am

 

Simon said:

عزيزي المتظاهر :
الكلام موجه فقط لأولئك الذين يخرجون للتظاهر فقط للفوضى على مبدأ (عليهم يا عرب)

قبل ما تقول محاربة الفساد شوف مين عامل الفساد غير ابوك و خالك و عمك و جارك و ابقى بس يوقفك شرطي المرور وانت عم تحكي مع صاحبتك لا تحط بأيدو المعلوم و ادفع المخالفة

قبل ما تقول حرية علم ولادك عالحرية و فرجيني شو رح يساوو فيك

قبل ما تقول طوارئ روح شوف اميركا الساعة 4 العصر ما بيسترجي اخو اختو ينزل عالشارع من ورا المافيات

قبل ما تقول زيادة رواتب شوف حالك اديش عم تشتغل بالنهار اكيد مو اكتر من 3 ساعات

قبل ما تشتكي من الراتب في شي اسمو تحديد نسل حاجة تبظ ولاد و تقول بدي شربون و طعميون

قبل ما تشتكي من البطالة روح ادرس و تزكر العلم عنا ببلاش أو تعلم شي صنعة لأنو مانا بسويسرا مشان نعطي رواتب للعاطلين
قبل ما تقول تعليم غير مختلط روح انقلع ع افغانستان

قبل ما تطالب بتحرير الجولان روح اخدم عسكرية و حاج تدور عطرق تتهرب و تفيش
قبل ما تقول افراج عن معتقلين سياسيين روح شوف هل الأولاد الحرام جواسيس لمين

قبل ما تقول حرية الرأي تعلم تقبل نقد العالم
وما تضرب أخواتك الزغار أو ولادك اذا قالوا بء
تعلم تفك الحرف و استقر على رأي واحد

قبل ما تنقد القيادات و تصيرلي فهمان وحقوقي وخبير اقتصادي و هاد المحافظ عاجبك و هاد لأ اسأل حالك لو حطيناك محافظ ما رح تنهب و تبلع أكتر منو

July 13th, 2011, 8:18 am

 

Aliccie said:

@Anonymous

While some of your propositions sound very reasonable and intelligent, I would like more basis for a few points :

<<Will the government act to control population growth and how?…”

<Governments should never intervene in population growth. All governments that have done so have failed in their objective and face massive issues now (Japan, China, Europe…etc) Humans have a right to live and a right to create life via procreation as they see fit. End of story.

I beg to differ, just like your "capitalism as we know it has been a failure". And 'trading between towns instead of between countries'.. shows certainly a too general and extremist point of view. Protectionism and open trade needs to be balanced, this is not easy.. But certainly not by a corrupt oligargy.

It's not true that China did the wrong policy. How have they 'failed' ? They obviously have trouble with one child financing two retired parents, but do they even have real pensions ? The economic boom could have easily funded a pension system.

The other option of 2 billion population would have been catastrophic. As for India, I don't know, I know they tried and there were abuses. As for Europe, what do you mean ? As I mentioned earlier, the population boom was a natural one after WWII. I can't speak for other countries but in France they had (and have) a very robust family policy that gives generous familly allowances to allow women to work and have a family, they encouraged three children to make up for a natural population drop, (of only two or less children) since that boom.
Some other countries thought they would make up the difference by encouraging immigration which has led to more problems, like integration, some of whom are taking more out of the system than they put in.

I suppose you base your argument on the idea that when a country gets a majority middle class they naturally reduce their offspring. This is true, but while you are waiting, with strong religious influence, why accept families to have 5-10 children that will never have a future ? Surely some form of education and gvt influence is needed to combat this ?

ps – MJABALI = agree, so much there..

July 13th, 2011, 8:19 am

 

tara said:

Simon,

Just for intellectual honesty, America is safe at 4:00 PM and at
4:00 AM for that matter. Statement like these make the whole letter addressed to demonstrators yet another propaganda thing.

July 13th, 2011, 8:27 am

 

Tara said:

Forgot to add

May be they meant Canada?

July 13th, 2011, 8:41 am

 

Simon said:

TARA
it is written in the top to which type of demonstrators this is written to,and the safety issue is depend on which part of USA you are living in.
we don’t want to demonstrate any more,time to work and take the country forwards,my heart bleed when watching all this death and destructions.

July 13th, 2011, 8:43 am

 

why-discuss said:

Fears grow in eurozone, crisis nears Italy, Spain

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=fears-grow-in-eurozone-crisis-nears-italy-spain-2011-07-12

Is Syria economy so bad?

July 13th, 2011, 8:45 am

 

EHSANI2 said:

Tara,

You asked about the sectoral mix of Syria’s economy. The last published figures by the Central Bank were for 2009. The size of the economy then was supposedly $54 Billion.

Agriculture share = 22%
Minining and manufacturing = 25%
Building and construction = 3%
Wholesale and retail trade = 23%
Transport and communication = 10%
Finance and Insurance = 5%
Social and personal services = 2%
Government services = 10%

July 13th, 2011, 8:52 am

 

Aboud said:

@68 Interesting. Under what category is tourism? Is oil under “Minining and manufacturing”?

July 13th, 2011, 8:57 am

 

majedkhaldoon said:

Ehsani2
Thank you for comment#68

where is tourism?,and I suppose health is under social services, i am surprised it is only 2%,could we have a comparison with another country,like USA.
Goverment services 10% is this low? this I would assume includes army expenses.
May be one day we could have a long study.but I dont expect for anyone to do it better than you.

July 13th, 2011, 9:15 am

 

HS said:

The crime rate in the USA and Syria

If you take the crime rate in the WORST part of the USA ( New Orleans 56 homicides for 100.000 in 2004 ) over a year and report it to the Syrian population over a 4 months period , you got 56*10*23/3 = 4293 homicides.

The unrest stricken Syria is far safer than USA in “normal” times .

PS:
The more US people are manufacturing arms and buying bullets to kill each other ,
the more the US growth rate increases.
( Tears are not accounted for by the economists )

July 13th, 2011, 9:23 am

 

Revlon said:

Misyaf demonstrate in support of Hama, last night!

July 13th, 2011, 9:32 am

 

Syria no kandahar said:

Simon
#62
the most important thing they want is SUNNNNNNNNNI press,or if not sinni he has to be someone MB can play with like a ball.no more infidels controlling holly Sunnis .

July 13th, 2011, 9:33 am

 

Revlon said:

Thugs multimedia have staged an arson in an oil tank in Deir AlZoar to blame it on “terrorists” in preparation for escalation of crackdown in the city.

The Syrian Revolution 2011 الثورة السورية ضد بشار الاسد
الثورة السورية بدير الزور|| إلى جميع الثوار في المنطقة .. الامن الان يلعب
ورقة خسيسة وخبيثة من اجل اخماد الثورة حيث اكد الاهلي انهم شاهدوا الامن
هو من قام بضرب النفط ونتوقع ان الامن قام باحراق خزان وقود من النفط ولم يضرب انبوب النفط … أو انه قد قام بترتيب عمليات الاصلاح مسبقاً
لذلك الخطوة القادمة معروفة سيتم توجيه اصابع الاتهام الى ث…وار المنطقة من اجل
ايقاف مد الثورة السلمي العظيم لذلك لن نتراجع لن نستسلم رغم كل اللاعيب .. بالطول بالعرض يجب ان يسقط النظام ونحذر الامن من هذه الطريقة الخبيثة في
التعامل وسوف نفضح الاعيبه وخططه الجبانة ولن نتوقف ولن نسمح له بالالتفاف
على ثورتنا العظيمة .. ولكننا ماضون .. ولا رجوع حتى الحريــــــــــــــــــــــةSee More

59 minutes ago

July 13th, 2011, 9:36 am

 

Tara said:

HS,

I am impressed with your analytical thinking but

You must also factor in the non-homocidal crime rates practiced by the regime in Syria on daily basis

Sorry for the bitter sarcasm.

July 13th, 2011, 9:39 am

 

EHSANI2 said:

Why-Discuss,

The answer to your question at the end of 67 above is yes.

As for the economic predicament of both the U.S and the EU, it is clear that they both need to use less leverage going forward. The U.S. households borrowed way too much between 1997 and 2007 as speculation mounted in the real estate sector. This was due to lax regulation and loose monetary policy. Since that particular bubble burst, it will take years for household balance sheets to be restored. The inability of households to borrow and spend meant that the government had to step in and boost borrowing and spending to make sure that the money supply and economic growth does not collapse. The U.S. economy is still growing but not nearly at the level that is needed to lower the 9.2% unemployment rate. Yes, by some measures it is even higher. This process of repairing balance sheets takes a long time as Japan has found out. The U.S. could be in this slow growth period for a decade till household feel that their balance sheets are restored. For the record, the size of the U.S. economy is still $15 trillion (yearly income/production). Households in the U.S carry a debt of $13.8 trillion but have assets that are worth $ 71.9 trillion. Those assets are made up of financial assets amounting to $48.8 trillion and tangible assets adding up to $23 trillion. In other words, despite the high $13.8 trillion in debt, household asset values are enormous. The difference between the two is networth and is currently at $58 trillion. This means that every U.S household has an average networth equal to 3.86 of yearly income (networth/gdp).

The EU issues incidentally also stem from excessive borrowing in the southern nations. Countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain (and even Italy) were not used to low single digit interest rates. After they joined, they could not resist the temptation to borrow. The bills are now coming home. They too will suffer from years of slow growth as they curtail borrowing.

Aboud,

They don’t break down tourism alone. Oil is in mining.

Incidentally, Syria only collects a total of $36 million in real estate taxes and merely 4% of total imports ($13.8 billion) in taxes and duties on imports.

July 13th, 2011, 9:39 am

 

Revlon said:

هيثم المالح ,, رئيساً انتقالياً

freesyria في 13 July, 2011 – 12:14 AM – 56 Comments

انتهى ما يمكن ان يُرجى , من الحوار او التشاور , او تحت اي اسم كان , فمجرد ان النظام هو الذي رعاه , فمن الطبيعي ان الغاية الكبرى منه , هو بقاء هذا النظام , في الحكم , ولاشيء مهم له , بعد ذلك

الحوار دار , على صوت الرصاص في باب السباع , و في الاستراحة بين يومي الحوار , هدد آصف شوكت , ثوار حماه , بتدميرها عن بكرة ابيها , بالاضافة الى الحصار والقتل على امتداد البلد ,

و كما قيل في الاعلام , فإن ما يقوم به الشرع , اشبه بما قام به عمر سليمان , في نهاية حقبة مبارك , اي ان النظام , بهذه التصرفات , يلفظ انفاسه

الثوار , يطلبون الحرية , والموالون / المنحبكجية / ما زالوا يقدسون الإله , وبين هؤلاء وهؤلاء , هناك صوت خرج , ليقول بصدق : نخشى بتأييدنا للثورة , من انهيار النظام فجأة , والدخول بفراغ في الحكم , غير مضمون العواقب

فهموا المعارضون الشرفاء , المعارضون الذين اخذوا من صوت الشارع , نبرة لخطاباتهم , فهموا ذلك , و انه لا فائدة , من تشتت المعارضة , والحوارات , والنقاشات , هذه الامور تأتي لاحقاً , الاهم سد الفراغ الدستوري

انتقل هيثم المالح الى تركيا , مسرح المعارضة السورية , وبدأ بهمة عالية , لتشكيل حكومة ظل , يعتبر كل من فيها وزراء لا اكثر , وتكون / ستاند باي / في حال تهاوي نظام العائلة المغتصبة , و افتكاك الحكم من يدها

لماذا هيثم المالح ؟؟

هيثم المالح , التزم بصوت الشارع , ولم يحد عنه , معارضاً من الداخل , اي انه لم يستند على الغرب , و عانى ما عانه هذا الشعب , ولم يأتي بشيء , من مبدأ التنظير

هيثم المالح , في سن , يملك به من الخبرة , الكثير , ومن محاذاة اهل بلده , لأجيال , وليس لجيل فقط

هيثم المالح , وسطي , لا يحسب على جهة ضد اخرى , لا يخلو من تجاذبات سياسية , ولكنه بعيد عن اي تعصب او تشدد

هيثم المالح , بسيط , لا يملك الطلاسم في حديثه , و ما إن تسمعه في التحليلات , حتى ترتاح , و تظن انه واحد من الناس البسطاء , لا اكثر و لا اقل

هيثم المالح , جلس طويلاً منذ بدأ الثورة , ولم يسارع لتبني مؤتمرات , عَرف ان ليس منها نفع جديٌ , او ليست في وقتها

هيثم المالح , لن يخيف احداً , بتشبثه بالسلطة مثلاً , نتمنى له مديد العمر , ولكن الحديث بواقعية

هيثم المالح , الآن في صدد , تشكيل هذه الحكومة , وقد صرح عن ذلك علناً , ليس للتباهي , ولكن لزرع الطمأنينة في نفوس السوريين , من خوفهم , مما قد ينتج عن تنحي الاسد , و تأخذ هذه الحكومة لما تملكه , من دراية وخبرة , زمام الامور في البلد , لتقوده , الى دستور جديد , وانتخاب رئيس جديد , وحكومة تُرضي اطياف الشعب

وضم المالح الى مشروعه الى الآن , خمسين شخصية أُخرى , منهم الدكتور عارف دليلة , والمعارض الكردي المهندس مشعل التمو , والشيخ عماد الدين الرشيد , والدكتور محمد المعمار والدكتور وليد البني , والمفكر الاسلامي الشيخ جودت سعيد ,

نشرت وثيقة عن مؤتمر الانقاذ هذا , وهناك صعوبات تعرقل اقامته , والمهم ان العمل المشترك بين شخصيات معتدلة , و وطنية , بدون غبار عليها , قد بدأ , وان المستقبل السوري , بغياب الاسد , لم يعد ذلك البعبع الذي يخيف المتوسطين , او يدع لهم عذر , لعدم الالتحاق بصفوف الثوار

رأي شخصي , عدم الشرود في تاريخ هذه الاسماء , والتمحيص خلفها , لا لشيء , فقط لأن سورية مليئة بمن هو كفؤ , وشبابنا هم عمادنا , وما اكثرهم

مللنا قول / المنحبكجية / : قالب الحكم في سورية , وضع لآل الاسد , وكسر من بعدهم !!

http://www.the-syrian.com/archives/18446

July 13th, 2011, 9:53 am

 

why-discuss said:

Ehsani2

Thanks, I am very far from being knowledgeable in economy but I have a few questions
How much is Syria’s economy dependent on the US and Europe economies. Did the government well advised not to sign the long due European trade agreement?
Isn’t better for Syria to turn east and make use of the huge Iraqi and Iranian market for their exports instead of relying on Europe faltering economy.
Don’t you think that since 2009, the tourism had grown to be a sizeable source of income.
Real estate taxes are ridiculous as they encourage speculation. Shouldn’t a priority to modify them?

July 13th, 2011, 9:56 am

 

syau said:

Syria-news.com
صحيفة : فورد نقل أجهزة تنصت إلى حماه والسلطات السورية نجحت في تفكيك عدد منها

http://syria-news.com/readnews.php?sy_seq=134930

Interesting ‘humanitarian’ visit to Hama in ‘support’ and soldiarity with the protesters.

July 13th, 2011, 10:11 am

 

HS said:

Incarceration in the United States is one of the main forms of punishment for the commission of felony and other offenses. The United States has the highest documented incarceration rate in the world. At year-end 2009 it was 743 incarcerated per 100,000 population.

If you report it to the Syrian population

743*230 = 170889 equivalent Syrians in jail .

You have more chance to get into in Syria than in the USA ( DSK excepted )

Note: For liberal economists

The more people are jailed in privately run US prisons , the more the growth rate increases.

July 13th, 2011, 10:14 am

 

Observer said:

All of the countries facing these monumentous changes stem from 50 years of mismanagement and corruption with a bulging population youth and lack of competitiveness with the rest of the world.

Any new regime will face a huge task in feeding the people and finding jobs and outlets for them.

The expectations are that there will be a better future and the disappointment will be severe as there are intrinsic issues facing the very structure of these economies.

I would say that if there are no prospects of a better life, then we will see mass migration and turmoil in the entire region.

Those affected will be the Europeans on the one hand and the oil rich countries with huge resources and limited populations. If these countries think that their oil wealth can protect them from turmoid they are dreaming. There will be a demand to share the wealth among fellow Arabs and Muslims.

Cheers.

July 13th, 2011, 10:18 am

 

nafdik said:

Ehsani,

I think you are missing the major demand of the protesters and that will have much more impact on the economy than any planning.

RULE OF LAW.

This is the best thing one can do to improve Syria’s economy and all energy should be focused on that.

July 13th, 2011, 10:20 am

 

aboali said:

ICG: The Syrian Regime’s Slow-motion Suicide

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/mena/the-syrian-regimes-slow-motion-suicide.aspx

Even in its attempts to survive at all costs, the Syrian regime appears to be digging its own grave.

Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VII): The Syrian Regime’s Slow-motion Suicide, the second of a two-part report from the International Crisis Group, examines the regime’s approach to the crisis. Although the outcome remains in doubt, as many Syrians still fear the prospect of chaos and sectarian strife in the event of abrupt change, the regime has significantly hurt its case through its brutal repression, half-hearted reform suggestions and squandered credibility.

“Playing catch-up with protester demands, the regime has always lagged one if not several steps behind, proposing measures that might have had some resonance if suggested earlier yet falling on deaf ears by the time they were unveiled”, says Peter Harling, Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project Director. “Demonstrators have turned to something else. It is not regime reform they are pursuing. It is regime change”.

By sowing fear of instability, the regime seeks to check the extent of popular mobilisation and deter its less committed detractors. But while this appears to have had the desired impact on some Syrians, the balance sheet has been overwhelmingly negative from the authorities’ standpoint. The security services’ brutal and often erratic performance has created more problems than it has solved, as violence almost certainly has been the primary reason behind the protest movement’s growth and radicalisation.

The situation has reached an apparent stalemate but it would be wrong to bet on the status quo enduring. Economic conditions are worsening; should they reach breaking point the regime could well collapse. Predominantly Allawite security forces are overworked, underpaid and increasingly worried. They could conclude that the regime is unsalvageable and defect, precipitating its end.

The international community’s options remain limited. Military intervention would be unquestionably disastrous, potentially unleashing a sectarian civil war, provoking further instability and benefiting a regime that repeatedly has depicted the uprising as a foreign plot. Sanctions against regime officials can be of use, but going further and targeting economic sectors that would hurt ordinary Syrians would backfire. International condemnation can keep the spotlight on – and potentially deter– human rights violations, but it only goes so far. At a time when a number of Syrians remain on the fence, they could view a premature determination by the international community that Bashar must go as undue interference in their affairs.

If the regime falls, Syrians will have to start almost entirely from scratch. A weak and demoralised army cannot form the backbone of an emerging state. The police are corrupt and unpopular, as is the justice system. Elected members of parliament are wholly unrepresentative, while the opposition in exile would remain distrusted by those who stayed inside. Yet, although ethnic and sectarian fault lines run deep, this would not necessarily doom the country to civil war. The Syrian people have been remarkably resistant to sectarian or divisive tendencies, defying regime prophecies of confessional strife and Islamisation.

“Ultimately, the burden lies with the protesters to counter the regime’s divisive tactics, reassure citizens who remain worried about a successor regime, and build a political platform capable of rallying broad public support”, says Robert Malley, Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program Director. “Risks abound, to be sure, but if Arab uprisings are the story of societies taking their future into their own hands, the Syrian people deserve no less respect than any other for their right and ability to do so”.

July 13th, 2011, 10:30 am

 

mjabali said:

Mr. HS

Cultural Stability happens when citizens of one country share their vision to whom they are, whom they were, and what they want to be.

The state has to ensure this. When, and if you have that type of stability, then the state could discuss with its citizens issues like birth control and the relation of that to the future of the state.

If there is no shared cultural stability there is no discussion about the future of the state. Some of these cultures do not even believe in that state to begin with, take the Islamists and their notion of Umma vs. State. The Islamists also do not believe in birth control, so how you approach that issue?

If we look at Syria today, we see many cultures competing for the hearts and minds of Syrians. The main ones are Baath (i.e the pan arabist/socialist stance), secular independent elements, and Islamists.

These are the three competing cultures in Syria and which do not allow the cultural stability needed to control the alarming growth rate and even discuss it.

July 13th, 2011, 10:32 am

 

Tara said:

HS,

HS

Nice. I do like comparative analysis and you got it right: incarceration in the US is the main source of punishment for FELONY and other OFFENSES not for expressing an opposing opinion.

And that where I find the conclusion of your analysis to be incorrect as it did not account for obvious confounding factors.

July 13th, 2011, 10:36 am

 

Simon said:

# 74 to SNK
I never thought about it this way because I believe that people has to prove that they are good and tolerant and peaceful to be able to live in harmony but if somebody want to challenge my Syrian identity,they will have their answers.
I am Syrian first and second and third.

July 13th, 2011, 10:53 am

 

HS said:

On the Syrian competitiveness

One said that the TV series made with Syrian actors were being boycotted by Gulf channel despite their popularity.

Obviously, the Syrian industry will suffer and may not recover unless the Syrian satellite TV expand its market share in the advertising .

When you see the success of a veiled Syrian ex actress giving cooking courses on a Gulf TV channel , it would not be very difficult and expensive ( using actual equipment ) to produce a more attractive ( without the veil ) and better program in Syria.

The same for educational , health programs , ..

Obviously , with regard to the large number of fabricated videos uploaded on Youtube by the e-opposition , the necessary technical and scenarist skills are present in Syria.

Note: For the cooking better to rely on Aleppo than Homs ( not only for the germs ) !!

July 13th, 2011, 10:55 am

 

EHSANI2 said:

Nafdik,

You are absolutely correct. One of the major headwinds in Syria is low money velocity. Not to get technical but this refers to how much income and production is produced per one dollar of currency in circulation and bank deposits. The lower this number is (velocity), the more hoarding and less risk taking there is. Syria is caught in a very low money velocity due to the lack of animal spirit and trust in the system which allows for both borrowing and lending. The money essentially stays dormant inside the banking system or under mattresses. This situation existed even before the crisis.

July 13th, 2011, 11:03 am

 

Syria no kandahar said:

مع التمنيات لسوريا بأيام حلوه تحت قيادة المالح
سوريا سعيده مع جودت سعيد
سوريا تمام مع مشعل تمو
سوريا عمار مع محمد المعمار
وطبعا اهم شي
سوريا بلد الحضاره والنور مع شيخنا عدنان العرعور
مشي حالنا
بسبورتاتنا السوريه علزباله

July 13th, 2011, 11:11 am

 

HS said:

86. mjabali said:

“”
Some of these cultures do not even believe in that state to begin with, take the Islamists and their notion of Umma vs. State. The Islamists also do not believe in birth control, so how you approach that issue?
If we look at Syria today, we see many cultures competing for the hearts and minds of Syrians. The main ones are Baath (i.e the pan arabist/socialist stance), secular independent elements, and Islamists.
“”

My divide line is Baath and secular independent elements versus Islamists ( Muslim Brotherhood ).

My solution is to REEDUCATE massively the Islamists to end up with the same as Ataturk has done in Turkey.

One pointed that somewhere in Europe the social benefits were modulated according to the number of children ,
they could also be modulated according to the attendance of educational courses by parents and children , etc .

An incentive to have numerous children is the fake idea they will support their retired parents but also they will provide immediate revenues as child workers.

This is wrong if the children are jobless.

July 13th, 2011, 11:18 am

 

Jad said:

SNK
That is hilarious!

Aboali,
Thanks for posting part2 of the report, sad but unfortunatly has lots of reality in it.
I just hope that we don’t need to start from scratch as it states, it’ll be a long and a very difficult process.
Better if we can build on what we already have instead of starting over.

July 13th, 2011, 11:26 am

 

EHSANI2 said:

Unless this government liberalizes the economy properly, it is inconceivable that the economy will improve by much. Rather than heading in that direction, the recent crisis has brought out the anti-economic reformers back with a vengeance. The reformers are now on the run. They are blamed for everything now. In this atmosphere, this country will suffer further for years to come. Socialist policies have not worked. They have made the country poor. They have made corruption widespread. Sadly, one is hard pressed to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

July 13th, 2011, 11:26 am

 

Syria no kandahar said:

HS
Nice plan:you need to do 10 million brain transplants in Syria.

July 13th, 2011, 11:26 am

 

Mina said:

A source of inspiration for naive protesters: start reading articles about Iraq and Afghanistan in 2003… A “just” and peaceful regime change.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/MG14Df02.html

The new “Western democratic way”: give jobs to the whole family!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamid_Karzai
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Wali_Karzai

July 13th, 2011, 11:26 am

 

Simon said:

I don’t know how long it was
Since I have written some non sense
But being between my Syrian mates
My key board just worked my finger around

I had a shock with Revlon’s comment first
At once he was sent to a cave in Afghanistan
Then Tara,Mina and all the named girls
I thought that they were lambs but I was wrong

Then came Aboud with more shocking news
I had to hide the screen so no one will see
Some one there mentioned my relatives once
And spoke very highly of them
I was so happy,though couldn’t reveal my name

One day somebody called (3 numbers) his name
He was so odd and didn’t know where he came from
Another one I liked much better
Has left us sad and bitter

Thank you all for this month
It is about time to say Adieu

Vive la Syrie

July 13th, 2011, 11:27 am

 

HS said:

90. EHSANI2 said:
“”
You are absolutely correct. One of the major headwinds in Syria is low money velocity. Not to get technical but this refers to how much income and production is produced per one dollar of currency in circulation and bank deposits.
“”

I think you meant Syrian Lira and not US dollar.

The great difference is that Syrian central bank cannot use Quantitative Easing 1 2 3 4 5 999 for solve the trust problem.

My question:

How is doing the Syrian stock market for the last 4 months ?
How about the state bonds ?
Is it time to invest in what ?

July 13th, 2011, 11:32 am

 

EIU said:

Ehsani is raising a crucial issue not only for Syria but for other countries afected by uprisings inspired to some extent by frustration at the failure of economic policy.

On the real GDP growth question it would be interesting to get a more precise idea from Shara about the extent of the manipulation. Actually the latest quarterly bulletin of the central bank includes a provisional figure of 3.2% for growth in 2010, which may or may not be plausible; in the previous five years, the official figures show growth averaging 5.4%, which you could argue is too high, but would be consistent with the performance of some sections of the economy, in particular exports of goods and services in the context of generally strong growth across the region. The point is that given the long legacy of poor economic performance going back to the disastrous UAR, a country in Syria’s position would need growth rates of over 7% to make any impact on poverty and unemployment.

The policy questions are more difficult. The 2006-10 five-year plan aspired to achieve growth rates of around 7%, but was categorical about the need for restructuring, for example phasing out ruinous petroleum price subsidies and widening the government’s tax base through introducing VAT (supposed to have happened in 2008), as well as developing the domestic debt market through launching T-bills. The plan also included measures to put public sector companies on an autonomous commercial footing, which would logically lead to privatisation. These policies can be crudely categorised under the Dardari heading. The problem is that Dardari (like his equivalents in Egypt) is discredited in the popular mind for having collaborated with a corrupt and oppressive regime and for pushing a neo-liberal agenda whose effects would be to make life even harder for the poor. I would suggest that Dardari was nobbled by a combinatiion of his own pretensions (fed by over-enthusiastic would-be foreign investors), the Baath party and sections of the business elite–and ultimately of course by the lack of effective support from the president.

Any new government in Syria would have to go back to these ideas and decide whether there is still a place for liberal economic policies–which would be guaranteed to receive significant external financial support from the IMF and the World Bank–or whether the answer is to revert to a more sttae-centred model. Arguing for the former approach would be a challenge of intellectual honesty. We have already seen in Egypt that the caretaker government was not up to this challenge, and retreated into a muddled policy of self-reliance that will probably only store up more problems for the future.

July 13th, 2011, 11:37 am

 

Friend in America said:

HS@71:
Comparing the highest crime of one city with the national rate of another country is comparing an apple with an orange. What are the results if you compared the crime rate for the US with the crime rate in Syria, using amore recent year?

Whatever these figures are, there are many in the U.S. who regard the American crime rate as far too high and wish the government will take action. Nationally over half of the shootings are related to the illegal drug trade but eliminating illegal drugs sold on the street has been ineffective. A prohibition of hand guns and required registration of hunting rifles (including proof the owners get hunting licenses) would reduce the rate of killing, some studies reveal. The lowest rate of alcoholism in the U.S. occurred during prohibiton in the 1920’s and early 30’s. But the majority wanted to drink and prohibition was ended. Prohibition of hand guns and rifles pose the same dilemma. So, the U.S. has not taking effective steps in controlling the availibility of weapons. What have been the gun laws in Syria?

July 13th, 2011, 11:47 am

 

Afram said:

US,French envoys to visit more protest hubs.Syrian REGIME MOST LIKELY bombed gas pipeline,C0Z Robert Ford and Eric Chevalier were planing a second round of visits to protest centers Friday,July 15,I guess government forces will poise to stop them to go to Deir al-Zour’s to meet with the brave dwellers who are staging their consecutive weekly anti-Assad rally,braving tank brigades and commando units besieging the city and using live ammunition against them.The decision to finally challenge Assad’s rule was certainly approved in frantic consultations between Presidents Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy,no guts no glory to put Ambassadors Ford and Chevalier on the front line after the success of their solidarity gesture in Hama is triumph of good over evil.
The”national dialogue”staged by the Syrian ruler earlier this week was a farce as usual.
Obama finally came out with a statement condemning the Syrian ruler by name,although he still refrained from telling him outright to resign like Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi.but soon Obamo would tell Assad…..HASTA LA VISTA BABY!

July 13th, 2011, 11:48 am

 

Tara said:

Simon,

What is the matter with you guys?

Stay on and fight the fight.

We need to influence each other as delusional as that might be. At least by staying on, we all can (may be) stop dehumanizing each other.

July 13th, 2011, 11:52 am

 

EHSANI2 said:

EIU,

Excellent comment. As I wrote up in comment 94 above, I am not hopeful. My information is that the reformers have lost the upper hand (assuming they had much). The hard core baath socialists are back in control of the agenda and Syria will be poorer for it.

HS,

I never talked about QE. I talked about money velocity. This can only rise with comprehensive reform. The Syrian stock market is down between 40% and 50% from the highs in December. State bonds do not exist anymore. What was issued was bought by state banks only as the rate that the government wanted to pay was for too low for private investors. What should you invest in? If you are a believer, buy those stocks and/or deposit SYP at your bank for 9%.

July 13th, 2011, 11:56 am

 

Mina said:

Well that’s something with economists, they spend their days comparing figures. That they don’t know how many Syrians expats have been rapatriating assets because of falling dollar and soon falling euro is no prob’ for them. They have been wrong so often that it is just about getting used to it.
Their religion is “the market will auto regulate”, and fiscal paradises are no problem. That the crowned heads of state enjoy this grey economy more than anybody else on the planet is no problem either, and that the biggest a company is the least it pay taxes is not feudalism but normal city-life. That transaction at the stock-exchange are not taxable is also perfectly normal in their “vision”.

Some good news from the AL
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=14059759
Sorry for the protesters, but until they learn to use the internet to write a manifesto of the third way as good as Marx Engels (for their time!) or Negri’s Empire, I won’t trust them. Having said that, when are the Arabs of Adnan going to get organised in a federated bloc?

July 13th, 2011, 11:58 am

 

why-discuss said:

Arab League to U.S.: Stop interfering in Syria

:The Arab League said Wednesday that Washington overstepped its bounds by saying Syrian President Bashar Assad had lost the legitimacy to lead his country.

….Elaraby said nobody has the right to say that the president of any country has lost his legitimacy.

“This issue is exclusively decided by the people,” he said after meeting Assad.

http://www.timesonline.com/news/world/arab-league-tells-us-to-stop-interfering-in-syria/article_8ed3c0b7-e31b-5cdf-8a3b-cab0fbbd4ab4.html

July 13th, 2011, 12:00 pm

 

William Scott Scherk said:

The International Crisis Group report is sobering and depressing. If the government insiders interviewed are to be believed, there are extreme problems of coherence and clarity & reality-testing in the regime performance of the past four months.

I hope prof Landis will feature some of the 2nd part of the report for extensive commentary. http://goo.gl/GQqaU

July 13th, 2011, 12:08 pm

 

Tara said:

Not trying to discuss the actual statement but just saying:

Arab league should dissolve itself. It is an impotent structure that has no value as it stands now.

July 13th, 2011, 12:10 pm

 

Mina said:

Angry Arab in great shape today
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/

Qardawy still not interested in returning to his fathers land, how come?
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2011/07/union-of-kooky-muslim-clerics.html

July 13th, 2011, 12:13 pm

 

Amnesia said:

John,

The fact that you did not respond to me, and the fact that you invited a member of the opposition to a cafe in Syria, shows negatively upon you. I don’t think you’re an idiot, so you must have ill intentions here. The discussions have been productive for the past few days, and I ask the moderator to treat similar posts from you as spam in the future.

For those of you who are not aware, accepting an invitation to a cafe by a regime supporter is tantamount to volunteering to be imprisoned, tortured, or worse.

Every Syrian Christian knows that the opposition is not run by MB, and that the MB itself has renounced violence. This is not al Qaeda. The MB despises al Qaeda. Enough with the propaganda and spam.

Moderator, please?

Take care all and be safe.

July 13th, 2011, 12:13 pm

 

jad said:

Mina,
#96, You are right, it’s like 2002 Déjà vu, Iraq, with the same transcript and the same characters with different actors.

Mina, WD,
That is a good news, the EU and US administrations yesterday where saying that we need the AL to give us the cover to go further but they don’t, I guess this was the answer to that question.

Tara
#101, Good one!

July 13th, 2011, 12:13 pm

 

jad said:

Adonis again:

أبعد من النظام، وأوسع من السياسة
ادونيس
(رسالة مفتوحة إلى المعارضة
حول التغيير في سوريا، وبخاصة تغيير الدستور)

ـ 1 ـ
لماذا لم ننجح نحن العرب، حتى اليوم في بناء مجتمع مدني، تكون فيه المواطنة أساس الانتماء، بديلاً من الدين (أو المذهب) ومن القبيلة (أو العشيرة والعائلة)؟ فالحق أن ما نطلق عليه اسم «مجتمع»، ليس إلا «تجمعات» من عناصر متناقضة تتعايش في مكان واحد، يُطلق عليه اسم «وطن». وليست السلطة هنا إلا «نظاماً» للغلبة والتسلط في حلف «يجمع» بين مصالح المتسلطين. والصراع السياسي هنا، هو أيضاً، صراع لتغيير السلطة، وليس صراعاً لبناء مجتمع جديد. وهكذا كانت السلطة في المجتمعات العربية عنفاً مركباً في بنيتها ذاتها، وكانت ممارستها نوعاً من التأرجح بين العنف «الطبيعي»، والعنف الآخر المموّه، ثقافياً، والذي يسمى «التسامح».
من الحاكم؟ تلك هي المسألة الأولى، عند العرب. وهي ترتبط، على نحو عميق، بالمسألة الدينية. مسألة «تطبيق للإسلام» أو «لمبادئ الإسلام الصحيحة»، إشارة إلى أن هناك «إسلاماً» غير صحيح، أو «مبادئ إسلامية غير صحيحة». وهذه طامة دينية ـ سياسية كبرى نرزح في سلاسلها، منذ أكثر من أربعة عشر قرناً. واليوم نمارس التنويع الحديث على الأسئلة القديمة: هل الإسلام الصحيح هو كما يراه عليّ، أم كما يراه معاوية؟ هل هو في القول بأن «القرآن مخلوق»، أم «غير مخلوق»؟ هل هو في الإيمان بالجنة والنار، حرفياً أم رمزياً؟ هل هو في العقل أم في النقل؟ هل هو في المساواة الكاملة، حقوقاً وواجبات، بين الرجل والمرأة، أم هو على العكس، في أفضلية الرجل وأوليته؟ هل هو في التسنّن، أم في التشيّع؟… إلخ، إلخ.
ومنذ ما سميناه بـ«عصر النهضة» نمارس التنويع على هذه الأسئلة.
واندرجت في آلية هذا التنويع جميع «الثورات» العربية الحديثة، ومن ضمنها «ثورة» عبد الناصر. وتبيّن أنها كانت «ثورات» من أجل السلطة، لا من أجل «المجتمع». وقد وصل هذا «التنويع» إلى ذروته اليوم، بتسمية الأشياء، جرياً على عاداتنا وتقاليدنا، بغير أسمائها: نقول عن الدولة التي يوجهها الدين بأنها «مدنيّة»، ونسمي الصراع على السلطة «ثورة». ونقول عن عبودية المرأة إنها «حرية». وهكذا وهكذا.
والحق أن كثيرين من الكتّاب العرب المهمين مأخوذون بالتعجل: وهم لذلك يعزفون عن المناظرة إلى المهاترة. وتبعاً لذلك يسارعون فيضفون على الأحداث والأشياء رغباتهم وأحلامهم. ويسمونها بأسماء لا تنطبق عليها.
نحن مدعوون، إذاً، إن كنا نعمل حقاً على الذهاب إلى أبعد من تغيير السلطة والسياسة، إلى بناء مجتمع جديد، ـ مدعوون إلى معرفة أنفسنا، وتاريخنا. ولماذا، مثلاً لا يزال انتماؤنا دينياً، يحمل أربعة عشر قرناً أو أكثر من «التمردات» و«الانشقاقات» و«الأهوال» و«المذابح»؟ ولماذا، تبعاً لذلك، لا يزال انتماؤنا العميق قبلياً عشائرياً؟
نحن كذلك مدعوون إلى اكتشاف هذه البداهة وهذه البساطة:
ليس غريباً أن تكون جميع الأنظمة العربية، اليوم، دون استثناء، أنظمة طغيانية. إذ متى كانت لدينا أنظمة حرة وديموقراطية وعادلة، وتؤمن بالإنسان وحقوقه؟ وعلى هذا المستوى، يصح القول إن «الربيع العربي» ظاهرة يصح وصفها بأنها فريدة، وعظيمة. وبأن الذين قدّموا حياتهم من أجلها، قصداً أو عفواً، هم طليعة نضال ضروري مشرّف، بنّاء، وإنساني. لكن علينا في الوقت نفسه أن نتذكر أولئك الذين قدموا حياتهم أيضاً، بدءاً من خمسينيات القرن الماضي، فرادى وجماعات، من أجل بناء مجتمعات عربية، حرة وديموقراطية. وعلينا تبعاً لذلك، وفي ضوء «الربيع العربي» نفسه، أن نتساءل، لماذا قامت الأنظمة العربية، منذ تلك الفترة، باسم الحرية والديموقراطية، لكنها لم تنتج إلا العبودية والطغيان، ولم تكن إلا هوساً بالسلطة وامتيازاتها، ولم يكن الإنسان الذي وقف إلى جانبها أو ضحّى من أجلها إلا مجرد سلّم، ومجرد أداة؟
كلا لا يتم تقدم المجتمع اعتماداً على ما مضى، أو انطلاقاً منه.
التقدم نوع من ولادة ثانية. فلا يمكن بناء الغد بما صار ماضياً، أو بما رفضه، أو وضعه موضع النقد والتساؤل مفكرون وكتاب كثيرون في الماضي، نُبذوا، او سفِّهوا، أو قُتلوا.
أن يكون الإنسان دائماً مع الحرية والعدالة وإلى جانب المضطهدين، المستضعفين، الفقراء، الضحايا، أمر لا يحتاج إلى وصايا وخطب واتهامات وبطولات. يحتاج إلى الوعي بأننا لا نستطيع أن نكون حقاً معهم إلا إذا كنا، بدئياً، نعمل على تخليصهم من الشروط التي تكمن وراء اضطهادهم وفقرهم واستضعافهم. وهي شروط كامنة في هذا الحاضر السياسي ـ الاقتصادي الذي ليس إلا ماضياً متواصلاً: تسييس الدين وتديين السياسة. فهذان هما نواة الحلف السلطوي الذي يحوّل «المجتمع» إلى شركة ترئسها السلطة، ويحوّل «الوطن» إلى «متجر» يقوده أهل السلطة وأتباعهم.
ولماذا إذاً، في ضوء هذا كله، لا نجهر قائلين: تكون الثورة قطيعة كاملة مع هذا الحاضر ـ الماضي المتواصل، في مختلف المجالات، وعلى جميع الصعد، أو لا تكون إلا تحركاً باسمها وإلا استمراراً قد يكون أشد ظلاماً من جميع أنواع الظلام التي «تفضل» بها علينا الصراع القديم على السلطة؟
ـ 2 ـ
استناداً إلى ما تقدم، أوجز الأطروحة التي أنطلق منها في ثلاث نقاط:
1 ـ المجتمع العربي ـ الإسلامي مؤسس، سياسياً وثقافياً واجتماعياً، على الدين في ارتباطه الوثيق ببنيته القبلية ـ الإتنية، وبالسلطة والصراع التاريخي، العنفي، الدموي غالباً، حولها وعليها. وهو أمر لا يزال قائماً حتى الآن.
2 ـ كل تغيّر في أي ميدان لا يمكن التعويل عليه، إذا لم يكن صادراً عن إعادة نظر جذرية، وعلى نحو شامل، في هذا الأساس. هذا، إذا كانت الغاية من التغيير بناء مجتمع جديد، لا مجرد اختزال يتمثل، على الطريقة التقليدية السياسية في «الإطاحة بالنظام سريعاً وبأي ثمن».
3 ـ المعارضة، خصوصاً في هذه المرحلة الفاصلة من تاريخ العرب، إما أن تكون على مستوى التاريخ والمستقبل: عملاً لبناء مجتمع مدني إنساني جديد، وإما أن تندرج في سياق المعارضات التقليدية: الاكتفاء بتغيير النظام القائم، سياسياً.
وفي هذا تكون موجة قامت باسم التحرر، لكنها ظلت كغيرها من الموجات السابقة، بدءاً من الانقلابات العسكرية السورية المتوالية إلى الموجة الكبرى ـ عبد الناصر، تنويعاً آخر على تعطيل الحياة العربية، وتعطيل الحريات والحقوق التي قامت باسمها.
ـ 3 ـ
يقوم البيان الختامي لاجتماع المعارضة، الأول، في دمشق على شقين:
مبدئي، وعملي. المبدئي هو، كما جاء في البيان: «الانتقال إلى دولة ديموقراطية مدنية، تعددية، تضمن الحقوق السياسية والثقافية والاجتماعية، وحريات جميع المواطنين السوريين، كما تضمن العدالة بين جميع المواطنين، بغض النظر عن العرق والدين والجنس».
والعملي هو: «إنهاء الخيار الأمني، والتحقيق في جرائم القتل (الموالية والمعارضة)، وضمان حرية التظاهر، وإطلاق سراح المعتقلين دون استثناء، وحرية الإعلام وموضوعيته، وإدانة التحريض الطائفي، وإعادة المهجرين إلى قراهم وبلدانهم، والتعويض عليهم، ورفض التدخل الأجنبي، والسماح للإعلام العربي والدولي بمتابعة ما يجري في سوريا بكل حرية».
ـ 4 ـ
ليس عندي إلا التأييد الكامل للجانب الثاني العملي، بمرتكزاته وتفاصيلها، مضيفاً إليها التحقيق أيضاً في جرائم التحريض الطائفي من أية جهة جاءت. فلئن كانت جرائم القتل العادي ـ المادي «عمياء»، فإن جرائم التحريض الطائفي «بصيرة»، وهي إذاً، أشد هولاً وفتكاً.
لكن بالمقابل، أود أن أناقش الجانب المبدئي، مع أنني نظرياً أوافق عليه كلياً. غير أن «النظري» هنا «تجريدي» ولا يعني شيئاً على المستوى العملي، إلا إذا كان مرتبطاً عضوياً بالأسس التي تتيح له أن يصبح عملياً، أو أن يتحقق في الحياة، وفي المؤسسة، وفي النظام. خصوصاً أن هذا الجانب المبدئي ينهض على كلام عام قيل كثيراً في الموجات التي أشرت إليها، غير أن التجربة أكدت أن قادة هذه الموجات، أنظمة وأفراداً، وفي طليعتها حزب البعث العربي نفسه في دمشق وبغداد، أفرغوا تلك المبادئ من معانيها، وامتهنوها. هكذا أصبح هؤلاء القادة، وهذه الأنظمة جزءاً من «الفساد» القديم.
الأخطر من ذلك: هذا الكلام المبدئي العام تحوّل في الثقافة السائدة إلى غطاء معقد وكثيف لتمويه الاستبداد في جذوره الثقافية والسياسية والدينية والاجتماعية.
النظام السوري، كمثل الأنظمة العربية، إنما هو نتيجة لأسباب وعوامل. مجرد تغييره، مع بقاء هذه الأسباب والعوامل، لن يعني في أفضل الحالات، أكثر من تغيير نظام سيئ بآخر أقل سوءاً. هل سيعني مثلاً تغيير الملك المغربي، اليوم، أو الأردني، أو السعودي، أكثر من ذلك ـ إن لم يكن أقل من ذلك ما دامت «إمارة المؤمنين» والملكية الوراثية، والملكية العائلية، باقية؟
والمهم إذاً هو تغيير الأسباب والعوامل. فهذه بالنسبة إلى النظام السوري قائمة على ثقافة قروسطية، يلعب فيها الدين، مقترناً بالعصبية المذهبية ـ القبلية، الدور الحاسم الأول. يستحيل في هذه الثقافة، مثلاً، التصور بأن يكون رئيس مصر قبطياً، مهما كان الأقباط عظماء، ومهما كان هو عظيماً بشخصه. أو أن يكون رئيس سوريا آشورياً أو كلدانياً أو سريانياً، أو مارونياً، أو أرثوذكسياً أو بروتستانتياً. لكن، بأي حق يستحيل هذا التصور؟ وكيف نقبل بهذه الاستحالة، إذا كنا حقاً «مجتمعاً مدنياً»، وبشراً متساوين؟
إن «أهل الذمة» في سوريا، وهم سكانها الأصليون، لا يزالون يدفعون الجزية، سلبياً: حرمانهم من أن يكون لهم الحق في رئاسة وطنهم الأصلي، (لا بوصفهم الأقلوي أو لانتمائهم الديني)، الذي لا تزال تهيمن عليه ثقافة الفتح والغلبة. فمنطق الفتح والغلبة والصراع الديني الذي ينتمي إلى تاريخ البدايات الإسلامية هو ما يستمر وهو الذي يحكم، لا منطق التآزر ووحدة الانتماء والمساواة في المواطنة، فضلاً عن منطق الكفاءات الفردية.
الخلاص من هذه الثقافة التي تصبح في الوضع الحالي لا إنسانية، والتأسيس للمواطنية وثقافتها الإنسانية، هو ما يجب أن يكون الهاجس الأول الموجّه في أفكار المعارضة وأعمالها. وهو ما لم يعمل له حزب البعث العربي، رغم ادعائه العلمانية، وتلك هي، في رأيي، خطيئته المميتة الأولى.
كيف يمكن إذاً أن تنشأ في سوريا «دولة ديموقراطية، مدنية، متعددة»، إذا كان مستحيلاً أن يُسنّ أي قانون أو تشريع لا يتفق مع «المفهوم الإسلامي الصحيح» وفقاً لعبارة الجامع الأزهر في وثيقته الأخيرة، أو «الرؤية الإسلامية الصحيحة»، وفقاً لما جاء فيها؟
ومن غير المفيد أن نسأل: ما هذا «المفهوم»؟ وما هذه «الرؤية»، وما معاييرهما، ومَن يقرّر ذلك، وباسم أي سلطة؟ وبموجب أي اجتهاد؟ من غير المفيد أن نسأل لأن الجواب جاهز: تلك هي الأكثرية، وتلك هي إرادتها، وذلك هو «مفهومها» وتلك هي «رؤيتها». لكن السؤال الآخر الذي لا يُطرح ولا يُجاب عنه، هو: لماذا تكون الأكثرية السياسية من الدين الأكثري عندما لا يتصل الأمر بالشؤون الدينية، بل بالأمور التي تهم الجميع بلا تمييز؟ ولماذا لا يُبنى الاختيار هنا على أساس الحاجات والمطالب الوطنية وليس على أساس الدين أو الانتماءات العقائدية الخاصة بكل دين؟
ومن أين لسوريا، إذاً، أن تكون مدنية وتعددية؟
والجواب أيضاً يجيء من وثيقة الأزهر: «تطبيق الشريعة الإسلامية هو ضمان للتعددية، وحرية الاعتقاد، وممارسة العبادات لأصحاب الديانات السماوية الأخرى الذين تكفل لهم الشريعة الإسلامية أيضاً الاحتكام إلى شريعتهم في ما يتعلق بشؤونهم وبالأخص في الأحوال الشخصية».
وهو جواب يُحل الشريعة الإسلامية محل الدولة، ويلغي بشكل قاطع «هوية» غير المسلمين بحيث يجعلهم، هم أيضاً، تابعين لهذه الشريعة.
الدولة، إن كانت مدنية، تكون هي نفسها الضمان. ولا يكون لأي دين كثُر أتباعه أو قلّوا، أي سلطان عليها، في أي ميدان. إن سلطة التشريع هي للمدينة، للمدنية، للإنسان المدني، وليست للدين. يجب أن تنتهي ثقافة القرون الوسطى التي كانت تعلّم أن الإنسان خُلق من أجل الدين. نعم يجب أن تنتهي. فالدين هو الذي خُلق من أجل الإنسان.
هكذا لا تعني عبارة «الدولة المدنية التعددية» شيئاً، إلا إذا عنت أن انتماء الإنسان، هو، أولاً، انتماء للأرض، للوطن، للمجتمع، وليس للدين أو القبيلة أو الطائفة أو العشيرة أو العرق، كما هو قائم، فعلياً، في سوريا.
وهكذا يكون للسوري غير المسلم الحقوق نفسها التي يتمتع بها السوري المسلم. المجتمع حقوق وواجبات وحريات، وليس كنائس وجوامع وخلوات. هذه للأفراد. ولكل فرد حقه الخاص فيها. وهو حق يجب أن يُحترم ويُصان. كذلك لكل فرد الحق في أن يرفضها أو «يعتزلها»، وفي أن لا يتديّن. فحق اللاتديّن يجب أن يُحترم ويُصان كحق التديّن. كذلك لا تعني الحرية والديموقراطية شيئاً إلا إذا عنت أولاً، هذا الانتماء. وها هو لبنان مثال حي.
لا أحد يقدر أن ينكر وجود الحرية في لبنان، السياسية والفكرية والاقتصادية والتنظيمية. أو ينكر فيه الممارسة الديموقراطية التي مهما قيل فيها تظل أفضل بكثير من الممارسات التي توصف بها الديموقراطية في البلدان العربية. لكن السؤال هو التالي: ماذا فعلت هذه الحرية وهذه الديموقراطية على الصعيد المدني ـ التعددي، بالمعنى الثقافي الحضاري والإنساني، في لبنان: لبنان ـ الدولة والمجتمع؟
ثم، أليس الدور النبذي ـ الإقصائي الذي يلعبه الانتماء الديني ـ الطائفي العامل الأساس في تعطيل الحرية والديموقراطية في لبنان؟
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ليس النظام في سوريا مجرد شأن سياسي. إنه نظام مركّب سياسي ـ ثقافي، وديني ـ اجتماعي. له «تراثه» وله «أجهزته» الإيديولوجية، وله مؤسساته.
المعارضة التي تعمل على إسقاطه، سياسياً، يجب في الوقت نفسه، أن تعمل على الخلاص من مرتكزاته الثقافية والتاريخية التي تكمن وراء أسباب نشوئه. دون ذلك تكون المعارضة مجرد عمل سياسي يطرد حكاماً ليُحل مكانهم حكاماً آخرين. معارضة لا تهتم بالأسس، وإنما تهتم بالسلطة والهيمنة. وليس لها أي عمق أو بُعدٍ تغييري جذري: ليس هاجسها تغيير المجتمع، بل تغيير الحكم.
وفي مجتمع مركّب كالمجتمع السوري، متعدد الأديان والمذاهب، الإتنيات، ومتعدد الثقافات، لا تكون المعارضة التي تكتفي بإسقاط نظامه إلا تنويعاً آخر على هذا النظام نفسه، لأنها تتكوّن من الطينة ذاتها التي يتكوّن هو نفسه منها. وهي، على هذا المستوى، لا تعني أكثر من كونها صراعاً سياسياً على المصالح. ومن هنا نفهم غياب «الأقليات» عن جسم المعارضة، إلا شكلياً ورمزياً، تماماً كما هو الشأن بالنسبة إلى النظام. المسيحيون، تحديداً، بمختلف فئاتهم، وهم كنز بشري وثقافي فريد، لا مثيل له في العالم، غير «موجودين» في المعارضة، وغير «موجودين» في النظام ـ إلا بوصفهم «ديكوراً»، في بعض الأحيان. وهكذا يُنظر إليهم، موضوعياً، كأنهم «لاجئون أو تحت «الحماية» أو «الوصاية». و«إضاعة» النظام والمعارضة إياهم، تشعرهم أنهم هم أنفسهم «ضائعون». لا «وطن» لهم في وطنهم الأصلي الأول. يعبّر عن هذه المسألة حبيب أفرام رئيس الرابطة السريانية، بعمق صامت ضائع قلق وحزين («النهار»، 3 تموز 2011).
ولا نتحدث عن «الأقلّيّات» الأخرى داخل الإسلام، والتي تعدها الأكثرية الإسلامية، «غير مسلمة»، وهي إذاً، مرشحة لمصائر سوداء ـ استمراراً للسواد الكارثي في تاريخها.
لهذا أقول وأكرر: ليس النظام في سوريا مجرد شأن سياسي، أو مجرد أجهزة قمعية، يصلح كل شيء إذا تم القضاء عليه.
هكذا، أكرر أيضاً: تأخذ المعارضة في سوريا قيمتها وأهميتها، بقدر ما تقرن معارضتها السياسية بمعارضة ثقافية، بالمعنى الواسع الشامل، والجذري. وإذاً، لا بدّ لها، من أن تؤسس اعتراضاتها على الخلاص من الأسس الثقافية للنظام الذي تعارضه، وفي مقدمتها الفصل الكامل بين الدين والدولة، وبين القبيلة والمجتمع، على جميع الصعد، وفي مختلف المستويات.
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أسوأ ما يشوّه المعارضة، هو أن تبدو كأنها منساقة، باسم تصفية حسابات معينة، مع نظام استبدادي يجب أن ينتهي، ـ منساقةً في تيار «أكثري»، تيار عقول ذكورية بطركية، لا تزال تؤمن أنها «الأب»، وأن المرأة لا عقل لها. عقول قدِر أصحابها تاريخياً ويقدرون الآن، استناداً إلى أسباب وعوامل كثيرة، أن يخلقوا نساء يقنعونهن حتى بالدفاع عن استحسان عبوديتهن، واختيارها، والبقاء فيها، وصيانتها. وهي ظاهرة لا وجود لها إلا في العالم الإسلامي: هذا العالم العظيم بإمكاناته وطاقاته وعبقرياته، لكن الصغير بأنظمته وخططه وسياساته. وفي مثل هذا المجتمع يستحيل أن تكون الحرية والديموقراطية إلا كلمات جوفاء وأقنعة.
وقبول المعارضة بهذا الانسياق يموّه جذور الطغيان، ويختزلها في السياسة ـ النظام. وهي نظرة جزئية، وغير كافية. بل تبدو المعارضة هنا، كأنها هي نفسها تعِدّ نفسها لكي تكون النظام اللاحق لخلافة النظام السابق.
هكذا لا يجوز أن تكون المعارضة السورية مجرّد تصفية لحسابات متنوّعة مع نظام مستبد، قلت, اكرر أنه يجب أن يتغيّر. المعارضة هي أولاً، العمل على إزالة العقبات التي تحول دون نشوء مجتمع ديموقراطي حر وعادل. والقضاء على النظام الاستبدادي جزء ضروري، لكنه لا يختزل المشكلة كلها.
لدينا أمثلة: ماذا أفادت إيران من القضاء على نظام الشاه الاستبدادي، باسم الليبرالية، وإحلال نظام آخر محله، استبدادي هو أيضاً، لكن باسم الدين؟
الاستبداد باسم الدين، أشد خطراً لأنه شامل: جسمي وروحي. ولعلنا أخطأنا جميعنا نحن الذين وقفنا إلى جانب الثورة الإيرانية ظناً منا أنها ستعمل من أجل الحريات حقاً. لكن، كان هذا الظن، في المحصّلة، إثماً.
وما يُقال عن إيران يُقال عن الأنظمة العربية كلها.
أكرر هنا للتوكيد، متسائلاً:
ما جدوى المعارضة السورية على سبيل المثال، إذا كان لا يحق للسوري، امرأة أو رجلاً، المسيحي أو الكردي أو الآشوري، أو الكلداني، أو غير السني أن يترشح لمنصب الرئاسة السورية؟ أو لا يُعترف بالحقوق اللغوية والثقافية لجميع من يندرجون تحت اسم الأقلية؟ ألن تكون المعارضة هي هنا كذلك عنصرية كمثل النظام الذي تثور عليه؟
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هكذا تواجه المعارضة عملياً مهمة التأسيس للمواطنية، حيث يزول مفهوما «الأكثرية» و«الأقلية»، إلا بالمعنى السياسي الانتخابي. وهذا يعني النظر إلى سوريا بوصفها مجتمعاً واحداً تنصهر فيه جميع الانتماءات المذهبية والإتنية والثقافية، في «سلالة تاريخية» واحدة، في ما وراء الإتنيات والأديان.
وصولاً إلى هذه الغاية، ولأوضاع تاريخية واجتماعية معينة، ينبغي البدء بالتأسيس لمرحلة انتقالية يُنص فيها صراحة، بوثيقة تاريخية على حقوق الأقليات الإتنية واللغوية والمذهبية، وهي كثيرة في سوريا: إسلامياً، ومسيحياً، عرباً وأكراداً وشراكس وتركماناً… إلخ. ويجب الحرص بخاصة على حقوق الجماعات التي تمثل الجسر الحضاري بين حديث سوريا وقديمها: الصابئة، الكلدان، الآشوريين، السريان… إلخ.
هكذا تنهض المعارضة على مبادئ إعادة تأسيس المجتمع. وتقوم هذه الإعادة على الأسس التالية:
أ ـ احترام الدين في ذاته. غير أن الدين للفرد، وليس للمجتمع.
ب ـ حق اللاتديّن مصون كحق التديّن.
ج ـ المجتمع مدني، يتساوى فيه أفراده جميعاً، واجباتٍ وحقوقاً. ولا أولية في ذلك للدين، بل للعقل والحرية والكرامة البشرية وحقوق الإنسان.
د ـ الديموقراطية، حرية وسياسةً وعدالةً، نظراً وعملاً.
هـ ـ مدنية الثقافة، في معزل كامل عن التحليل والتحريم الدينيين.
و ـ لا فكر، لا إنسان إلا بالحرية الكاملة، دون أي قيد.
ز ـ مدنياً وإنسانياً، لا يجوز أن ينص الدستور على دين الدولة أو دين رئيسها.
ليست المسألة، إذاً، أن نصلح الدين، أو أن نعيد تأويله، بحيث يتلاءم مع الحياة الاجتماعية. المسألة هي أن نعيد الدين إلى طبيعته الفردية، بوصفه تجربة خاصة. تكون الحياة الاجتماعية مشتركة ومدنية، ويكون الدين شأناً فردياً خاصاً لا يُلزم إلا صاحبه. الدين للفرد، وحده، وليس للمجتمع بوصفه كلاًّ. لا يُفرض الدين وراثياً، أو سياسياً وإنما يكون اختياراً حراً بوصفه حقاً فردياً. ولا يفرض بالأكثرية العددية في المجتمع. ومن حق الفرد ألا يتديّن، وأن يختار الدين الذي يشاء، دون أي إكراه. الدين حرية فردية. والمجتمع حرية مدنية. لكن ليس للدولة أو المجتمع أن يدين إلا بالإنسان وحقوقه.
في القرنين الماضيين (التاسع عشر والعشرين)، عشنا ما سميناه «نهضة». وكانت سِمتُها الأساسية: الإصلاح وبخاصة الديني. وسواء اتخذ هذا الإصلاح منحى اجتماعياً أو سياسياً أو دينياً، فقد أدى في النتيجة إلى تجزئة الفكر، وحتى إلى منعه. وصارت الحركة الفكرية العربية حشداً من المتوازيات، كل منها ينبذ الآخر. متوازيات لا تتلاقى. وكان الدين في هذا كله المعيار، والحكَم، والفصل.
والنتيجة أننا وصلنا إلى نتائج كارثية، على جميع المستويات. لقد انتهى عصر الإصلاح. ذلك أنه انطلق من إيمان كامل بالمسبّق الديني. والتغيّر يحتاج بدئياً إلى نقد هذا المسبّق والى نقد المسبّقات كلها، والى الخروج منها.
كل مساومة أو مسايرة للإيديولوجيا الدينية، بحجة أو بأخرى، ولو كانت التحرر من الخارج، إنما هي مساومة على مصير الإنسان في هذه المنطقة من العالم. فالعودة إلى الدين ـ سياسياً واجتماعياً هي، في أقل ما توصف به، في إطار الثقافة الإسلامية ـ المؤسسية، عودة إلى سلاسل أخرى وسجون أخرى.
الأصولية الدينية، إنما هي إخضاع للآخر أو استتباع، أو إلغاء. هي أمور لا تخرج من «المادة» وحدها، وإنما تخرج كذلك من «الروح». الكتاب هنا يصبح أخاً للقنبلة، وتصير الكلمة أختاً للرصاصة. على هذا المستوى، تحديداً، يمكن القول إن القتل لا يجيء من الرصاص وحده، وإنما قد يجيء كذلك من الكلمات.

http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=1894&ChannelId=44650&ArticleId=1410&Author=%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%B3

July 13th, 2011, 12:19 pm

 

aboali said:

2 more videos for ya:

new rations for the security forces:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcVYPDSFHUk

awesome revolutionary remix featuring the chants of Ibrahim Kashoush(r.i.p)

July 13th, 2011, 12:28 pm

 

jad said:

Mr. Bassam Alkadi is very unhappy about the national meeting, he has a very important points out of his rant, which is:
-THE YOUTH IN THE STREET (regardless to what side they support) MUST be represented and organized. (I do agree with him on this point)
-Publish the political party law already, it’s the most urgent piece of legislation we need today

http://www.bassam-alkadi.com/content/view/619/44/
تشاوروا واستشاروا.. وحسنا أنه “ختامي”!
الكاتب بسام القاضي
13/ 07/ 2011
ليست المرة الأولى، ولا الألف، التي يعيني فيه ابن منظور والفيروز آبادي ومن لفّ لفهما في إيجاد كلمات مناسبة لوصف ما لا يوصف! ولكن هذه المرة مليئة بالغضب والقهر، شأنها شأن كل العبث الأحمق الذي أدار أزمة بلادي وشعبي على مدار الشهور الأربعة الماضية، تاركا كل الجرذان تلعب فيه وتخربه، بدءا من جرذانه الخاصة، انتهاء بجرذان الفضائيات..

ما سمي بـ”البيان الختامي الصادر عن اللقاء التشاوري للحوار الوطني”، لا يحمل من معاني اسمه وعنوانه سوى معنى واحد: “ختامي”! فأخيرا تبين هذه المهزلة التي سبق أن تكلمت (وآخرين) عنها كثيرا، وقلت أن من قتل الحوار في حزبه ومؤسسته ودولته وبلده، لا يمكنه أن يصنع حوارا اليوم حتى لو قيد في وادي عبقر! وسخر كثيرون من هذا “التشاؤم”! إلى أن جاء البيان اليوم لأتمنى لو كنت مخطئا، وكانوا محقين!

ومع هذا “البيان” الطلسمي، لم يعد هناك معنى للتساؤل عن “أي مؤتمر حوار وطني” ستنجز هذه الشلة؟! بل أي وطن يتحدثون عنه؟! فقد فشل البيان حتى في وضع “الوطن” في مركزه حين أعاد تقزيم الأمور كله مرة تلو أخرى، مع كل سطر فيه، وخصوصا (خصوصا مرة أخرى) حين تجاهل أن الوطن السوري ليس شخصيات وأطراف، ولا كراسي وطاولات، ولا رؤوس فارغة وألسنة معطلة.. ليس “أطراف وشخصيات اجتماعية وقوى سياسية سورية”! فهذه جميعها أثبتت اليوم أنها تعيش في غرفها المغلقة التي أكل العث ما لم تأكله القوارض! بل هو قوى مجتمعية لم تظهر بعد، ولا تسمى بـ”سياسية”، ولا بـ”شخصيات وأطراف”، بل هي قوى موجودة في الشارع السوري اليوم (من أقصى المعارضة إلى أقصى الموالاة، وبكل طيف الطريق الثالث) لم تتجسد بعد لا في شخصيات ولا في قوى سياسية، نظرا لأن قانون الأحزاب الذي كان يجب أن يصدر اليوم، ليتمكن الناس من تنظيم أنفسهم للدخول في الحوار الوطني فعلا، قد تم تأجيله ريثما ينجز “أمراء الكلام الأجوف” مؤتمراتهم! ويقرروا قراراتهم التي لن تساوي حبرها! ليعودوا مجددا إلى التباكي والاتهامات وصراع الديك بين “مؤامرة” و”حلّ أمني”!

قانون الأحزاب، إذا، تأجل حتى يجلس “كبار الأمخاخ” مرة أخرى ليتناولو طعامهم وشرابهم في “مرابع صحارى” الذي كان مؤسسة للعمال، وتحول إلى كازينو لقادة العمال وقادة قادتهم!

على الناس، الناس الذين يعيشون اليوم ضريبة كل ما يجري، الناس الذين يدفعون اليوم ثمن العقوبات الاقتصادية على السادة رامي مخلوف وماهر الأسد وغيرهما، وعلى الشركات مثل الإسكان العسكري، ويدفعون ثمن الحرية والديمقراطية قتل واعتقالات عشوائية من مجرمي النظام، وقتل وتهديد بالقتل وتخريب من مجرمي الشارع.. على هؤلاء أن ينتظروا المومياءات أن تجد الوقت المناسب لكي “تلتئم” مرة أخرى فتقرر لجموع “الرعاع” ما يستحقونه!

سميراميس واحد وشبيحته باسم النخبة، وسميراميس أثنين وشبيحته باسم المستقلين، وصحارى واحد وشبيحته باسم الحوار الوطني.. كلها أجمعت (وياللغرابة) على بند أساسي: إقصاء كل صوت لا يلائم توجهات هؤلاء الشبيحة! لا أحد من قادة الشارع في هذه المؤتمرات! لا أحد من الطلاب الذين قادوا مظاهرات في الجامعات السورية.. لا أحد ممن قاموا يدافعون عن النظام السوري لأنه “تخاذل” في الدفاع عن نفسه! لا أحد من الذين يرفضون إجرام الطرفين، وتشبيح النخب الفارغة! لا أحد سوى مرايا تختلف ماركة صنعها مثلما تختلف الماركات الصينية: طبعة مختلفة تصدر عن نفس المعمل ونفس خط الإنتاج!

بيان ختامي! حسنا أنه ختامي! فقد ارتحنا على الأقل من ثلاثة أيام من الانتظار الممض عسى أن يتمخض الجبل عن ربيع، لا عن فأر أجرب.. فأر هذا هو “زقيقه”:

أكد المجتمعون على القواسم المشتركة التالية ..
أولاً: إن الحوار هو الطريق الوحيد الذي يوصل البلاد إلى إنهاء الأزمة.
+: إنه “الحوار”! هل عرفتموه؟! ربما كان الحوار نوعا شهيرا جدا من السندويتش لا يحتاج أبدا إلى تعريف، ولا إلى تحديد، ولا إلى رسم ملامح. فالحوار هو “الحوار”؟! أما من يتحاور مع من، وكيف، وبأي أسس، وما القيمة الإلزامية لما يخرج به الحوار، و.. و.. فهذا كله “هراء” لا يليق بمثقفي ومناضلي “صحارى”، مثلما لم يلق بمثقفي ومناضلي “سميراميس”!

ثانياً : إن الاستقرار في البلاد ضرورة وطنية عليا وضمانة لتعميق الإصلاحات.
+: “وجدتها.. وجدتها”.. هكذا صرخوا وخرجوا عاريين وإن كانوا يعتقدون أن السموكن وربطات العنق أخفت عوراتهم! فأي استقرار يتحدثون عنه؟ استقرار آلاف المعتقلين في أقبية المخابرات التي لم تقرأ مرسوم رفع حالة الطوارئ؟ أم استقرار النخبة التي تدعم القتل الإجرامي في الشارع بسكوتها عنه وإنكارها وجوده؟ أم استقرار أكثر من نصف مليون قطعة سلاح دخلت البيوت السورية (وخاصة بيوت “الموالاة”) خلال الأشهر الثلاثة الماضية؟ أم استقرار تمتع مجرمي النظام المكشوفين بحريتهم وعربدتهم بعيدا عن أي حساب (وبعضهم كوفئ لقتله الناس علنا وبكل وحشية بترفيعه عسكريا ومد سلطاته إداريا)؟! أم استقرار أحزاب الجبهة وملحقاتها التي تفوح عفنا؟! أم.. أم..
لا يجد السادة “سهيرة صحارى” ضرورة أبدا لقول شيء.. فهم سادة القول! وهم ورثة ابن عربي.. مقلوبا!

ثالثاً : إن التسامح قيمة مثلى للخروج من الوضع الدقيق السائد.
+: قلت “ابن عربي” قبل سطرين؟! لو وضعت هذه الجملة أمامه، وبعضا من “الوضع الدقيق السائد”، لقتل نفسه بنفسه غير آبه بمزبلة ولا آلهة ولا بشر!
فهل كان “المؤتمرون” في وعيهم حين وضعوا هذا البند، وصنفوه “ثالثا”؟! أم لعل حالة من الصفا والحلول كانت قد نزلت عليهم تساوقا مع مناخ “صحارى”، فأشعروا واستشعروا؟!
إنه “التسامح”!! هذا جيد: فلننزل جميعا يوم الثلاثاء (فهو ليس جمعة الإسلام ولا سبت اليهود ولا أحد المسيحيين)، فرحين مصطهجين، ولنقبل بعضنا بعضا في الشوارع والساحات (وحسنا أن تفصل النساء عن الرجال، حتى لا يذهب الرجال جميعا إلى جهنم فتنة بالفاتنات!).. وعفا الله عما مضى..! أليست أبهى وأزهى صورة لـ”التسامح” يمكن أن تزين بلدنا “الفسيفسائي”؟!
فالسادة “صحارى” لا يرون سوى الفيسفساء! لا يرون، أو لا يجرؤون على أن يروا أن الطائفية وصلت إلى حدود قياسية في سورية قتلت بعض الناس، وتهدد بانفجار كامل للبلد ليس مبنيا على “حقد” حتى يحل بالتسامح، بل مبني على واقع مر أجرم فيه الجميع بلا استثناء: نظاما ومعارضة وشارعا!
ولا يرون، طبعا، أن التوتر الموالاتي (موالاة ومعارضة) قتل أيضا العديد من السوريين، وشرد كثيرين منهم!
لا.. فبلدنا بلد “الفيسفساء، والمزاييك، والأرابيسك”.. ولا يحتاج سوى إلى “لمسة حنان” حتى تنسكب عليه “زجاجة العطر” فيلتم الناس حول بعضهم بعضا في انسجام يحسدنا عليه التاريخ، وليس العالم فقط!

رابعاً : رفض الاعتداء على الأشخاص والممتلكات العامة والخاصة ومن أي جهة تبادر إليه.
+: هذه نكتة طبعا! لكأن أحدا قبل هذا حتى يكون محل نقاش! لكأنه لب الأزمة وقلبها!

خامساً : ضرورة الإفراج الفوري عن جميع المعتقلين السياسيين ومعتقلي الرأي الذين لم تشملهم مراسيم العفو السابقة والذين لم يرتكبوا جرائم يعاقب عليها القانون والتأكيد على أن حق إبداء الرأي غير قابل للانتهاك ومصون تحت سقف الوطن والدستور وأن الحريات العامة حق لكل المواطنين.
+: “جرائم يعاقب عليه القانون”! وصلنا!! هون حطنا الجمال! فأي قانون الذي يتحدثون عنه؟ قانون العقوبات السوري الذي يجرم الناس على انتقادهم للدولة بصفتهم “ينالون من هيبة الدولة”؟! ويجرم الناس لنشر كاريكاتير لأن الكاريكاتير يثبط من العزيمة؟! ويجرم انتقاد النظام لأن انتقاده هو معاداة لأهداف الثورة؟!
أي قانون هذا يا سادة؟ هل قرأتهم قانون العقوبات جيدا؟ هل قرأتم أغلب القوانين التي سنت في السنين الماضية وتضمن سلطة مطلقة للسلطة التنفيذية المعنية، بما حولها إلى قوانين طوارئ في مجالها؟!
بكل تأكيد لم تعذبوا أنفسكم بذلك! فمثلكم مثل كاريكاتورات سميراميس: ما تزال جمل ومقولات ثابتة منذ دهر في رؤوسكم تكررونها وتعيدون اجترارها دون أن تفكروا مرة واحدة إن كان شيئا ما قد تغير مع الأيام!

ثم: “سقف الوطن”! قال صديق على الفيس بوك: كلما سمعت عبارة “سقف الوطن” اعترتني الرعدة في جسدي (أو شيء من هذا القبيل)! أحسد من قال ذلك، فهذا ما كنت أبحث عنه لأعبر عن شعوري المؤلم في رقبتي وقد تعلقت عيني على “سقف الوطن” خشية أن يسقط فوقي فيسحقني، ثم تأتي الجرافات لتكشف الحقائق فتمزقني!
لكن “شعراء صحارى وصوفييها” لم تسعفهم قريحتهم هذه المرة في اكتشاف كم إن “السقوف” صلبة وقاسية وباردة وميتة! ولم يعرفوا أن الوطن الذي يسقف بأي سقف هو ليس إلا خيمة متنقلة! وأن وظيفة السقوف القديمة في الحماية من الشمس تراجعت أمام وظيفتها الجديدة في أن تعمر فوقها طوابق مخلعة بعد دفع المعلوم!
فأي سقف هذا؟! ومن يحدد ارتفاعه عن قامتي وقامتك؟! ومن يقول هذا من “سقفه” وذاك من “فضائه”؟! لعلهم سادتنا الذين لا يظهرون على التفاز ونادرا ما يعرف أحد أشكال وجوههم المصفرة: قادة المخابرات! فمن غيرهم “سقفنا” حتى “سقف حلقنا” في العقود الماضية؟ ومن غيرهم لديه الخبرة والمهارة والقدرة والإمكانية على إعادة “سقفنا” مرات ومرات؟!

أوووووف!! إن هذا متعب فعلا، وممل أيضا! فكتابة رسالة إلى صديق أو صديقة أقول فيها: صباح الخير يا صديقتي.. لهي أكثر جدوى وإنسانية من التعليق على معلقة السخافة هذه.. التي يجدر أن تكتب بماء الـ……….

اقرؤوها أنتم..”

July 13th, 2011, 12:34 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Aliccie said:
“It’s not true that China did the wrong policy. How have they ‘failed’ ? They obviously have trouble with one child financing two retired parents, but do they even have real pensions ? The economic boom could have easily funded a pension system.”

I am assuming that you are unaware of the impending crisis in China. About 50 million males of marriagable age will be unable to find a spouse because of the one-child policy. A large portion of society has been aborting girls in favor of boys. Can you imagine the social implications of 50 million men being unable to marry? All men have trouble marrying now, as they are finding girls to be especially choosy. Prostitution will flourish – not my idea of progress. This is why China’s policy failed, although I agree that high population growth is also a huge challenge we face.

Ehsani, thank you for the analysis. For me the most striking part of the economy you broke down is services (and construction second). In industrialized countries, services constitute a majority of an economy, while in Syria it’s at a horrible 2%. This supports what I stated in an earlier post, that there are major opportunities for educated Syrians interested in entrepreneurship.

Construction needs to increase massively from it’s current paltry three percent. Not only is an immense amount of new infrastructure needed, but also homes in the next decade for all the youth coming of age.

Tara,
Humility, and lots of very hard work.

July 13th, 2011, 12:42 pm

 

jad said:

Unlike the propaganda machine of Aunti Oum Muhammad, the Syrian Oil Company is saying that the damage happened to the gas pipes is technical..Hato ghera Aunti Oum Muhammad!!

مصدر : انفجار في خط أنابيب للنفط في دير الزور بسبب خلل فني

مصدر في الشركة السورية للنفط ” تمت السيطرة على الحريق الناتج عن الانفجار, وعمليات الصيانة قائمة ”
كشف مصدر في الشركة السورية للنفط في دير الزور أن “انفجاراً حصل الساعة 12 والنصف بعد منتصف الليل نتيجة ثقب في خط النفط الواقع عند منطقة الطيانة وقد تمت السيطرة على الحريق في الساعة الثالثة من صباح اليوم الأربعاء وعمليات الإصلاح والصيانة قائمة”.

وأوضح المصدر إن “الانفجار ناجم عن خلل فني, وليس ناتجا أبدا عن تخريب”.
وسرت أحاديث عقب اندلاع الحريق مفادها ان أهالي احد المعتقلين في قرية الطيانة طالبوا بالإفراج عن ابنهم المعتقل, وهددوا بتفجير خط الأنابيب إذا لم يفرج عنه.
ولم يتسن لسيريانيوز حتى ساعة إعداد هذه المادة معرفة الأضرار التي تسبب بها انفجار خط النفط, بسبب عدم قدرتنا على التواصل مع المعنيين مباشرة بهذا الأمر.

سيريانيوز
http://syria-news.com/readnews.php?sy_seq=134912

July 13th, 2011, 12:43 pm

 

Aboud said:

The latest ICG report makes for interesting reading. But they made a few obvious mistakes, which I expect the regime supporters to point out if they can bring themselves to read the report.

Even when it is being at its most generous towards the regime’s claims of foreign armed groups, at no point can anyone identify who the countries or organizations are, that are supposed to be behind the supposed armed attacks on the security forces.

Also, I dispute the report’s characterization of Eyad Al Ghazali, Homs’s former governor. He did much to improve many aspects of Homs. Arguably, his more controversial move was probably what made people resent him the most; cracking down on the rampant illegal building that flourished in parts of the city. Good for society, bad for the individual.

He should not have been made a scapegoat for taking such critically necessary measures (I say as I contemplate adding more square feet to my house hehehehehehe)

@114 Well, I guess that’s an improvement. In the old days they would have claimed to have seen 3ar3or himself carrying dynamite and cackling like a mustachioed villain as he tied baby kittens to the pipe line.

July 13th, 2011, 12:48 pm

 

jad said:

Aboali,
You wrote that the first video you linked represent how hungry are the military that they are eating grass!

That is untrue, have you ever been to villages in the cost or in Hawran or Jabal al3arab?
Many Syrians eat raw herbs, vegetable, beens, artichoke, 3koum and lots of local plants directly out of the farmland, it has nothing to do of being hungry or a reason to look down at them, I think that video was low in its way to depict Syrians (army or not) as animal.
I always hated Ugarit/Tharwa/Ponytail propaganda production, it always show Syrians as animals and subhuman, there is a huge difference between showing your fellow citizens as in need of freedom and present them as subjects to be used for your own political gains.
Ponytail (Ammar Abdl Alhameed) is a disgusting Syrian.

July 13th, 2011, 12:51 pm

 

jad said:

Aboud,
I’m seeing lots of improvement in many Syrian news site since the beginning of the uprising, I’m happy for that, and the Syrian peaceful youth protesting in the streets are the reason for that change and they are the reason of every change happening to Syria today, they have to capitalize on those gains instead of throwing them out the window for empty promises and they need to become more realistic than idealistic.
I believe that the Syrian youth MUST work on forming their own groups (political or social) it doesn’t matter, but forming something to talk on behalf of their group and let average Syrians to see that they are not the thugs we see them throwing stones every Friday, but Syrians who have a message, a vision and a positive plan of some sort.

July 13th, 2011, 1:12 pm

 

Mina said:

The best way for a successful economy (on paper at least, for a few years at least): borrow a lot and suddenly make all your debts collective
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8634300/UK-debt-set-to-pass-100pc-of-GDP-says-watchdog.html

How come we don’t get yet a video of John and Aboud?

Amnesia, if you want to get into details, no doubt that the Turkish and Syrian MB are from a different, neo-Ottoman trend than the Egyptian MB. But then broadly speaking, the Jamaa’a islamiyya is hard to distinguish from the MB in Egypt at times. And then you have Qardawi and the Wahhabis, who try to stand in between all these. Or you can give us som insights of the new US-MB trends? They seem to be trying to get somehow organized as well as AIPAC ahead of the presidential election?

July 13th, 2011, 1:21 pm

 
 

Aboud said:

@118 There are only two possible outcomes of such a video. If I am who you think I am, “John” will be kneeling, reading an Al-Qaeda manifesto just before I chop his head off.

If I am who I say I am, “John’s” friends will put me in Salafi clothes and have me confessing to everything from the loss of Askandarun to instigating the attacks on the embassies.

I’d rather not make any videos if you don’t mind. And John isn’t even in Homs.

July 13th, 2011, 1:35 pm

 

Tara said:

Aboali,

Did you notice that clip

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=_RM1jmp21qw

Quite amazing how similar is the Syrian and Lebanese collective psych. I found it very funny.

July 13th, 2011, 1:46 pm

 

jad said:

أربعاء التكبير؟
Seriously?????? That what the retarded ‘swede bro’ came with?
Isn’t it Alsarsour idea? Why to taint this uprising with such provocative names! Yet, they keep asking why not all Syrians support them:
BECAUSE YOU ARE SHOWING YOURSELVES AS RADICALS!

July 13th, 2011, 1:52 pm

 

Abughassan said:

Excuse my relative silence,I am still waiting for some major news. The opposition must attract people in the middle to succeed and should alienate those who advocate violence or carry extreme views. Syrian expats can only support and participate ,they can not and should not lead. Bashar still have choices,I hope,and I am waiting to see,that he makes the right decision. Syria is more important than a person or a family. A country like syria is fully able to come up with a credible government that keeps order and peace but respect its citizens. Bashar may be needed now,a big may be,but he eventually needs to step down and allow a non asad,and a non alawi,to be elected president.i am opposed to him running again. What is being planned next Friday? I am still learning..

July 13th, 2011, 2:09 pm

 

jad said:

دون سبب واضح سقطت ذبابة في فنجان قهوة

وزير الداخلية: الذبابة سلفية حاولت الاندساس بالفنجان لافساد مذاق القهوة لدى جماهير الشعب ..لهذا فنحن لسنا مستعدين لدفع الفاتورة باي ثمن كان

هيثم المالح: النظام هو من قام باسقاط الذبابة في الفنجان باستخدام الرصاص الحي ولن نعود الى المقهى لشرب القهوة قبل تدخل القوات الدولية لاخراج الذبابة من الفنجان وعلى النظام دفع الفاتورة

ادونيس : الثابت هو الفنجان والمتحول هي الذبابة ارى فصل الفاتورة عن الذبابة والفنجان لاسيما ان القهوة قابلة للتحريك

البوطي:نسأل الله العلي القدير ان يطيب النفوس بشئابيب الرحمة ولدي معلومات بان النظام سيقوم باعداد ركوة قهوة جديدة للشعب ونسأل هذه الذبابة الضالة ان تتوب الى بارئها وتقوم بدفع الفاتورة

طيب تيزيني : علينا ان نحلل سيسيولوجيا اسباب سقوط الذبابة في هذه المرحلة وقبل اخراجها من مأزقها يجب ان نعرف هل القهوة كانت ساده ام قهوة وسط لنعلم من سيدفع الفاتورة

التلفزيون السوري :يتغاضى عن سقوط الذبابة ويبث قصيدة شعرية بصوت محمد مهدي الجواهري :شممت تربك لا زلفا ولا ملقا

هيثم مناع: لدينا وثائق تؤكد بسقوط المئات من الذباب في فنجان القهوة وقد عرضت علي ثلاث جهات بخاخات بيف باف ولكنني رفضت وسنقدم هذه الوثائق قريبا لمحكمة الجنايات والنظام سيدفع الفاتورة مهما كانت باهظة

الاخبارية السورية:الذبابة لم تسقط ..كل ما هنالك سقوط بعض الهطولات المطرية…والشعب كان يشرب القهوة سعيدا وهو يشاهد رفرفة الذباب كالفراشات

القرضاوي :القهوة رجس من عمل الشيطان والذبابة اسقطتها طائفة ضالة وهي اقلية وعلى اهل السنة والجماعة اعلان الجهاد على هذه الفئة التي لم تدفع الخراج منذ معركة صفين ولن يستمتع الاخوة في سورية بمذاق القهوة قبل حرب طائفية عليهم خوضها لصالح كامل الامة ..والامير حمد جاهز لدفع الفاتورة واقتطاعها فيما بعد من بيت مال المسلمين حين اعلان الخلافة

خالد عبود: انتبهوا الذبابة انتقلت من مربع السقوط..الى مربع الاسقاط ..والفنجان دائري..انتبهوا وهذا يناقض معادلات التداخل الهندسي ذات الجذر التربيعي ولا يتم الا بفعلة فاعل..انتبهتم..وطالما الفواتير مربعة لن ندفعها حتى تصبح دائرية او مثلثة ذات شكل مستطيل..انتبه

ايمن الاسود=شاهد عيان :هذوله قناصة النظام اللجاعدين يسقطون الناس مثل الذباب ورأيت بأم وعمة وخالة عيني العشرات من الذباب يتساقطون في الفناجين …النجدة النجدة..انهم يقنصون الفناجين الان ..والفاتورة يا اخي سادفعها من جيبتي بس خلصونا من قناصة النظام

مجلس الشعب :يقيم مهرجانا شعريا حول الفنجان ويمتدح مذاق القهوة ويقر قانون التصفيق لرفع الذبابة من الفنجان ويرشي الكرسون للتخلص من الذبابة لتقديمها الى المواطن السوري مع كرت كتب عليه: كرامتك محفوظة وستعاد اليك بابهى صورة ..وانفضوا ولم يأتي احد منهم على ذكر الفاتورة

من سيدفع الفاتورة اذا….

المتنفذون؟ قطعا لا فهؤلاء ما ان يحمى الوطيس سيغادرون برفقة عائلاتهم ليعيشوا هانئين

ديكة الخارج؟لا بالطبع .. صحيح ان جميعهم يقدس الشهادة ويحبون الشهداء ولكن لا احد

منهم يريد ان يستشهد ويشارك في دفع جزء يسير من الفاتورة

مواطن سوري بسيط يقترب يخرج الذبابة برفق ويتركها تذهب لشأنها يدفع تكلفة فاتورة الفنجان ويغادر مبتسما وهو يعلم بان الفواتير الباهظة دائما يدفعها الفقراء

شبكة أخبار بانياس | B.N.N

July 13th, 2011, 2:22 pm

 

Abughassan said:

Jad, that was very funny. Mixing humor and politics is a treat for those who can read and are still able to laugh..

July 13th, 2011, 2:28 pm

 

jad said:

تواجد أمني يمنع مظاهرة لمثقفين وسط دمشق .. واعتقالات تطال البعض منهم

تجمع نحو مئتي شخص من فنانين وصحفيين، يوم الأربعاء، عند جامع الحسن في منطقة الميدان بدمشق، لتنفيذ تظاهرة تم الدعوة إليها عبر موقع التواصل الاجتماعي “فيسبوك”، إلا أن التواجد الأمني المشدد منعهم من ذلك، فيما تم اعتقال عدد منهم، بينهم صحفيين وفنانين.

وأفاد مراسل سيريانيوز أن “قوات حفظ النظام وعناصر الشرطة أغلقت محيط جامع الحسن، ومنعت المارين من دخول أو خروج محيط المنطقة”، وأضاف، نقلا عن أشخاص تواجدوا في المنطقة، أنه “تم اعتقال العديد من الأشخاص، من بينهم الفنانة مي سكاف والصحفي إياد شربجي”، فيما لم يتسن لسيريانيوز التحقق من صحة المعلومات من مصادر أخرى.

ليقوم بعد ذلك مجموعة من الشبان والفتيات بالجلوس وسط كورنيش الميدان، مرددين النشيد الوطني وأغاني وطنية أخرى، إلى أن تم تفريقهم من قبل قوات حفظ النظام، بحسب المراسل.

وكانت منطقة الميدان محيط جامع الحسن أول المناطق بدمشق التي شهدت مظاهرات محدودة عقب صلاة الجمعة منذ بدء حركة الاحتجاجات في سوريا آذار الماضي.

وجاءت هذه الأحداث إثر دعوات، انتشرت على موقع “فيسبوك”، للخروج بمظاهرة لـ “وقف الفوري والنهائي للحل الأمني ولاستخدام العنف في الشارع بحق المتظاهرين السلميين، ومعاقبة ومحاسبة كل من أجرم بحق الشعب السوري بمحاكمات عادلة ومعلنة”.

وشهدت عدة مدن في سورية, منذ بدء حركة المظاهرات الاحتجاجية, أعمال عنف واعتداءات من قبل جماعات مسلحة, أسفرت عن مصرع وإصابة المئات من المدنيين وأفراد الجيش وقوى الأمن.

وطالبت الدعوات بـ “إيقاف التحريض والهجمة الإعلامية التي يشنّها الإعلام المحلي على المواطنين المطالبين بالحرية، والسماح للإعلام العربي والعالمي والمستقل بتغطية الأحداث في البلاد بحرية كاملة، لنقل الحدث على حقيقته”.

كما دعت “قوى المعارضة الوطنية في الداخل والخارج، والتي تنشط خارج حسابات وأجندات القوى الخارجية، إلى توحيد صفوفها والخروج بتصوّر مشترك للدولة المدنية الديمقراطية”.

وتشهد سورية حركة احتجاجات شعبية منذ حوالي الاربع اشهر، تزامنت مع احداث مؤسفة راح ضحيتها مئات المواطنين المدنيين وعناصر الامن والجيش، تحمل السلطات الرسمية مسؤولية قتلهم إلى عصابات مسلحة “إرهابية”، فيما تتهم منظمات حقوقية أممية ودول غربية السلطات السورية باستخدام “العنف المفرط” في قمع التظاهرات.

سيريانيوز

http://syria-news.com/readnews.php?sy_seq=134938

July 13th, 2011, 2:30 pm

 

jad said:

‎#Syria خلافات حادة بين المشايخ في حماة، والإغلاق يسبب خسائر فادحة لحماة، ولا تفكير إلا بالحل السلمي… المحافظ أنس ناعم: سنحاور الجميع حتى الذين ينادون بإسقاط النظام

كثفت السلطات المحلية وعلى رأسها المحافظ الجديد من جهودها مع المجموعات التي تقيم الحواجز داخل شوارع حماة وتعطل الحياة العامة فيها، وسط تأكيد السلطات المحلية بعدم التفكير حالياً بغير «الحل السلمي».

وفي أول يوم عمل له بدأ المحافظ أنس عبد الرزاق ناعم لقاءات مكثفة مع الفعاليات الروحية والأهلية، ومع المجموعات لبلورة «حزمة مطالب أو تفاهمات» يمكن البناء عليها لحل الوضع الراهن للمدينة.

وعلى خلاف ما نشرته «الوطن» في عددها الصادر أمس بأن الحوار سيستثني المجموعات التي تطالب بإسقاط النظام، أوضح ناعم أن الصحيح هو أن «الحوار يجري على قدم وساق مع تلك المجموعات حتى التي تطالب منها بإسقاط النظام، لمناقشتها وإقناعها بالحوار والكلمة الطيبة ببطلان هذه الفكرة وهذا الشعار، وأن رئيس الجمهورية وعد بتحقيق كل المطالب الخدمية والقانونية مقابل إيقاف الشغب والتظاهرات».

وأضاف المحافظ: «لقد لمسنا تجاوباً مقبولاً من العديد من الذين حاورناهم ولكن إقناع البعض الآخر الخاضع للتحريض والتجييش فيه صعوبة، ومع ذلك لم نعدم الوسيلة».

وفي السياق ذاته أكد مصدر محلي من الذين حضروا اللقاءات الحوارية في جامع السرجاوي أمس خلال اتصال هاتفي أجرته «الوطن» معه أن «المناقشات التي تمت أظهرت تبايناً حاداً بالآراء واختلافاً بوجهات النظر حتى بين المشايخ أنفسهم فمنهم من دعا إلى الاستجابة لمناشدات السلطات المحلية، ورفض البعض الآخر». وعلى صعيد متصل، أكد عدد من المواطنين عبر اتصالات تلقتها «الوطن» أن المدينة «تعاني من تراكم القمامة لعدم سماح مجموعات الحواجز لسيارات جمع القمامة بترحيلها، وأن المحال التجارية بقيت مغلقة لليوم الحادي عشر على التوالي والدوائر الرسمية مقفلة عدا «الزراعة، والخدمات الفنية، والمياه، والمالية».

وأما على صعيد الخدمات العامة وتوافر مادة الخبز، فقد أكد مصدر محلي أن الدولة توفر كل الخدمات العامة إلى المدينة والخبز متوافر للجميع. وعن هذا الوضع واستمراره قال المصدر: إن الدولة تتبع سياسة التهدئة والدعوة للحل السلمي حرصاً على المدينة وأهلها الطيبين الشرفاء، ولا نفكر حالياً بغير «الحل السلمي».

July 13th, 2011, 2:31 pm

 
 

daleandersen said:

Memo To: ABUGHASSAN

RE: “…Bashar still has choices and I am waiting to see that he makes the right decision…”

You don’t get it, do you?

It’s over for Bashar. The world has changed and there’s no place in it for Bashar Assad. He should have died years ago. As for now, the only choice he has is to choose where to die, capish baby?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Dale_Andersen/syria-clinton-bashar-assad_n_895705_96942693.html

July 13th, 2011, 2:39 pm

 

Tara said:

See #126

Can any one from the pro regime group give us one explanation as to why the regime dispersed the demonstration above? Other than stupidity of course. If some youth wanted to meet and sing the national anthem, what is the regime problem with that?psychological demonstration complex? And then they want to convince us that they are serious about reform. Just like Imad Mustafa taping the demonstrators and encouraging them to visit? Do they not think?

July 13th, 2011, 2:44 pm

 

Syrian Person said:

The opposition actually has an economic plan.They’re asking for law and order or the rule of law. Once that’s established, it is common sense to know its implication on the economy.

July 13th, 2011, 2:50 pm

 

Amir in Tel Aviv said:

“…I am still waiting for some major news”. Abughassan you’re a funny guy.
.

July 13th, 2011, 2:53 pm

 

Tara said:

Ehsani2

Thank you for your answer@69.

If it is not much trouble for you, can you give us a comparative analysis of what a healthy economy sectors might look like for a population similar in size to Syria? I mean if Syria is to build a successful economy, not necessarily a booming one but perhaps one that is good enough, what sectors should grow in your opinion? Of course taking into account variable factors that can not be overcome.

July 13th, 2011, 3:05 pm

 

Aboud said:

@124 ROFL! 🙂

@123 I have no problem with a Alawi replacing Bashar. In fact, to reassure the country, a healthy representation from all areas and sects must be present in the first post-Bashar government.

July 13th, 2011, 3:09 pm

 

Syria no kandahar said:

اليوم يوم التكبير
غداً خميس التطهير
كل سوري غير مطهر يجب تطهيره غداً

تنسيقية تطهير سوريا

July 13th, 2011, 3:10 pm

 

Amir in Tel Aviv said:

Did you notice the nightly protests? It’s now on Fridays and in the evenings. Unlike the regime supporters, who demonstrate during working hours (guess why…), the protesters cannot leave work, and so they have only Fridays and the evening.
.

July 13th, 2011, 3:16 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Mina,

“Or you can give us som insights of the new US-MB trends? They seem to be trying to get somehow organized as well as AIPAC ahead of the presidential election?”

I wish I could, but I am not connected. I don’t know anyone from the Syrian MB. I have known some Egyptians who were members, including their US leader who brought the group out from underground two decades ago, and I know they are connected to the Syrian Brotherhood (overseas dissidents, not within Syria). These people are for the most part non-extremist, humble, and hard-working, and the MB from both Egypt and Syria have ruled out violence a long time ago. Insinuations from Assad’s supporters that they are violent are merely propaganda being used to stoke fear.

Mina, I don’t know what you know about Muslim communities in the US, but I can say that there has been a movement this past decade to mobilize and better organize. You mentioned AIPAC. The Israeli lobby is the most influential lobby in the United States, according to a Fortune Magazine survey years ago, and any attempt to properly counter that influence is very much called for. Disinformation needs to be countered, and hasn’t been for much too long.

July 13th, 2011, 3:19 pm

 

Tara said:

Aboud,

I think the pro regime guys have a point genetic mutation that selectively affects part of their external auditory canal and render them incapable of selectively hearing what you have just said and many of us said before. So your comment will go un- noticed.

This is not as some try to portray. Calling for hourriah does not mean calling for a good muslim Sunni to rule. Most of us could care less. Abolali said it before. I said it before. You are saying it now. Could be Mickey mouse as long as we get democracy, freedom and dignity.

July 13th, 2011, 3:24 pm

 

Aboud said:

“Could be Mickey mouse as long as we get democracy, freedom and dignity.”

>_<

I'm not doing all this and risking all so a rodent can rule the country. Al Sha3eb…Yureed…Daffy Duck!

:p

July 13th, 2011, 3:29 pm

 

Tara said:

Can I convince you with little mermaid, my favorite Disney character?

Or there is still a long way ahead of us to start thinking about a girl president?

July 13th, 2011, 3:33 pm

 

norman said:

Tara,

Let us say that you have a wound on your arm, you go to the doctor who tells you to take an antibiotic he prescribed , use neosporin and keep it clean , what would you do and how do you like it if i and others keep coming back pouring Alcohol and salt on it to make you hurt, don’t you push us away and fight us back , Syria is in her way to heal it’s wounds, some people keep the pain and that is enough, the opposition should know that they won, enjoy instead of beating a dead horse .

July 13th, 2011, 3:36 pm

 

Abughassan said:

Israeli and pro Israel posters here are welcome to talk to themselves or go to israelcomment.com
I do not care if the new president is an alawi or not, I never belonged to either sects,however, I prefer somebody who may have a better chance in unifying the country which may require a Sunni figure who is acceptable to minorities. Syrians are not sectarian people and they may not have a problem with a non Sunni president,that was just a thought..

July 13th, 2011, 3:44 pm

 

Tara said:

Norman,

I am shocked with your statement….How is so? How did the opposition win? And how am I beating a dead horse?

July 13th, 2011, 3:44 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Norman, I don’t understand your last post. Don’t though say that the opposition has won. Won what? What exactly have they won? Even with successes down the road, that I hope will come for Syria, the opposition will never “win”.

Even if things go very well from here on out, it will be a long, difficult road. There’s a lot of work to do.

Tara and Aboud, we need a strong leader to bring everyone together and provide direction for Syria. The next leader probably won’t be an Alawi, but the leader we need will recruit many Alawi intellectuals to lead reforms.

July 13th, 2011, 3:51 pm

 

SYRIAN HAMSTER said:

Aboud @ 138

I’m not doing all this and risking all so a rodent can rule the country

Me neither, espacially that pretensious rodent

Long live Daffy Duck.

July 13th, 2011, 4:10 pm

 

Aboud said:

“Or there is still a long way ahead of us to start thinking about a girl president?”

Countries with a Muslim majority have a better record in electing women leaders than the West. It’s not her gender I object to, it’s the fact that she comes from a royal family; she’s a princess descended from a king. Not exactly bought up on Plato’s Republic.

July 13th, 2011, 4:16 pm

 

louai said:

@88. HS
‘Obviously, the Syrian industry will suffer and may not recover unless the Syrian satellite TV expand its market share in the advertising .’
exactly , even that I don’t like the Syrian Drama but it’s a good source of income and very effective weapon that no Jazeera can compete with , I hope your suggestion will find its way to the government .

July 13th, 2011, 4:17 pm

 

norman said:

Tara,
I am shocked that you are shocked, the VP said that the regime as we know it is not going to be there and changes have to be made with multiparty system and free press and no Baath party as the only leader , but the opposition keep on causing Chaos in the country ,

no matter what the president say they will not accept and they are not against him for being an Alawat they are against the secular nature of the Baath party , they were against the government of Amin Al Hafiz and Salah al din Al bitar had an uprising in 1965-1966 there were no Alawat in government at that time ,

July 13th, 2011, 4:19 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Norman said, “I am shocked that you are shocked, the VP said that the regime as we know it is not going to be there and changes have to be made with multiparty system and free press and no Baath party as the only leader , but the opposition keep on causing Chaos in the country ,”

The devil is in the details, and protesters are not inclined to believe promises until they see them fulfilled.

The mukhabarat needs to be deployed to new positions as border guards, and away from the cities. Deploy the army, but only parts that don’t have a track record of abuse. Let’s not forget the reasons for the chaos.

The VP as he currently speaks would not disagree with the above. Let him act already.

July 13th, 2011, 4:31 pm

 

Tara said:

Norman

But this is the crux of the problem.  You can try to sell too many things but you have to sound credible.  

Acknowledging there is sinister elements, shouldn’t Bashar try his best to achieve  safe exit to Syria from the crisis?  How to achieve a safe exit?  Safe exit is going to happen by taking sometime to build the infra structure needed for secular democracy which is a formidable task.  The task includes changing the constitution, enabling a free judiciary system, etc etc.  This takes time.  We all agree on that.  Don’t we?

To the peaceful opposition, it is a serious trust crisis.  It is like a wife catching her husband cheating on her and then the husband wants her to trust him.  You can not impose trust.    
This is just undoable.   You can’t convince anyone to sit down to discuss reform when the security option is at work.  You can’t convince anyone to have a dialogue when their safety is threatened.  Haven’t we seen opposition figures trying to dialogue and then getting beaten up?

If Bashar wants a safe exit to Syria, he should reach a deep conviction that he eventually will give it up in a year and announce it in a historic speech.  Then he curbs the security apparatus and start a true national dialogue under the umbrella that he will no longer be in power in a year.  During that year, the infra- structure towards democracy should be built and then the year would culminate into peaceful transition

July 13th, 2011, 4:47 pm

 

jad said:

لافروف: روسيا مع الحل البدلوماسي للأزمة السورية

قال وزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف في مؤتمر صحفي في ختام اجتماعه مع نظيرته الأمريكية هيلاري كلينتون يوم 13 يوليو/تموز بواشنطن إن موسكو تعارض تبني مجلس الأمن الدولي قرارا حول سوريا لأنها تريد ضمان حل دبلوماسي للأزمة السورية.

وأكد الوزير في هذا السياق أن موقف المجتمع الدولي من سوريا يجب أن يكون مسؤولا وغير منحاز.

وفي الشأن الإيراني قال لافروف إن موسكو تقترح تخفيف الضغط على إيران حسب درجة تنفيذها لمطالب الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية.

من جانبها، وفي الموضوع الليبي، صرحت كلينتون أن أيام معمر القذافي معدودة، مؤكدة على أن واشنطن ستتعاون مع موسكو من أجل تعزيز الضغط على القذافي.

وصرحت الوزيرة الأمريكية أن على واشنطن وموسكو تعزيز التعاون في مجال مكافحة الإرهاب.

وأكدت كلينتون أن الولايات المتحدة ستأخذ في عين الاعتبار موقف روسيا وأوروبا خلال عملها على إنشاء نظام الدرع الصاروخية الأطلسية في أوروبا.

من جانبه أكد لافروف استعداد روسيا لمواصلة الحوار مع الولايات المتحدة حول معاهدة الحد من القوات التقليدية في أوروبا التي علقت روسيا العمل بها عام 2007.

وأفاد لافروف أن روسيا والولايات المتحدة توصلتا لإتمام العمل على اتفاقية تسهيل نظام التأشيرات التي توقع الوزير الروسي توقيعها قبل نهاية العام الجاري، مشيرا إلى أنه لم يبق للطرفين إلا تحديد بعض التفاصيل الفنية.

وصرحت كلينتون أن واشنطن “تؤيد بقوة” انضمام روسيا لمنظمة التجارة العالمية.

هذا وقد وقع الوزيران خلال اجتماعهما رزمة من الاتفاقيات الثنائية، منها اتفاقية التعاون في مجال تبني الأطفال.

كما اتفق الوزيران على إنشاء مجموعتي عمل في إطار اللجنة الرئاسية الثنائية وهما مجموعة العمل في مجال الابتكارات ومجموعة العمل حول مسائل قانونية.

http://arabic.rt.com/news_all_news/news/562247

July 13th, 2011, 4:53 pm

 

Tara said:

Aboud@145

Agree entirely. No room for princesses in free Syria.

I have one honest question. Why don’t you use names in your replies. I know these names are fake but still. The reply sounds ” better” when you use names. Can you call me Tara when you answer me … Please.

July 13th, 2011, 4:54 pm

 

norman said:

Amnesia,
I agree with you they need to move like Rabbits not like Turtles but they are worry about making mistakes.

July 13th, 2011, 4:59 pm

 

NK said:

Dear louai

Why are you asking the “revolutionaries” about what they intend to do about honor killing when and if they get to power ? a better question would be asking the 40 years old “secular” “liberal” Syrian regime what did it do about it in 4 decades !.

Protecting women rights and transforming the society into a more liberal one requires a minimal degree of freedom, a strong judicial system and a vibrant civil society, it needs an elected government/parliament to issue laws that help and serve the society rather than oppress them and serve the interests of a select few. The Syrian society is far more conservative today than it was 50 years ago, and it will be far more conservative at the coronation of Hafez II 30-40 years down the road … just because the baathists keep saying it’s a “liberal” society does not make it true, just like saying the economy was growing at a steady 6-7% a year did not make it a true figure and saying the unemployment number dropped from 9% last year to 5% (I’m not too sure about the exact “official” number but I remember reading it dropped 4% earlier this year), this lie also did not change the reality of things.

If you’re so afraid the “extremists” will take over, go into the streets and bring your liberal friends, be active and take charge of your destiny. There are many brilliant minds in Syria, take your pick and support who ever you think best represents you, offer your own alternative, promote your own idols and ideas. The Assad family and their baathist friends (Syrian regime) literally destroyed our country over the past 4 decades, they’re the reason so many of us are living abroad and have a 2nd citizenship, they’re the reason many of our children can barely speak/write Arabic and can’t stand staying in Syria past their summer vacations (most stop visiting once they have a family of their own), they’re the reason why people wait in a line – daily – at the gates of foreign embassies with a dream of getting a visa so they can escape the miserable life that awaits them should they stay. Waiting for this regime to reform on its own is a crime in itself, we deserve better, our children deserve better, our people deserve better, enough is enough.

July 13th, 2011, 5:00 pm

 

Tara said:

Why,

Although I am still very mad, I would like you to offer an opinion on #149

Do you accept that Bashar announcement to stay for one year only and leading the reform would be a good solution of the crisis?

July 13th, 2011, 5:11 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Norman, with all due respect, I don’t think they fear making mistakes as you make it sound.

They need to move “like rabbits”, yes. I can say with absolute certainty that there is heated argument now in the palace, although it is more difficult to judge what the true positions are. One thing is for certain: the insiders fear losing what they have, both power and money.

The VP, whose words are revolutionary, if sincere is probably more a part of the “opposition” than of the regime. If sincere, he probably does not have the power to do what must be done.

It saddens me to say the above.

July 13th, 2011, 5:11 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Further, I would add that the protests make it easier for the VP to push reforms through, as he himself said on Sunday.

July 13th, 2011, 5:15 pm

 

Aboud said:

Tara @154 “Do you accept that Bashar announcement to stay for one year only and leading the reform would be a good solution of the crisis?”

No. Absolutely out of the question. If a week is a long time in politics, a year might as well be the week before Judgement Day.

Bashar must step down, and someone else should handle the transition period. Mubarak, Ali Saleh, and Bin Ali all offered to stay on until free and democratic elections were held. Unsurprisingly, none of them got a chance to, and I see no reason why the man responsible for so many Syrian deaths should have that privilege.

July 13th, 2011, 5:22 pm

 

Nour said:

NK:

That’s a very good point you brought up and I was just discussing this same issue with someone yesterday. This regime has always presented itself as secular, but reality on the ground shows otherwise. While Syria is not an “Islamic” country in the traditional sense, many of its laws still adhere to Sharia and are still based on backwards social traditions and practices. The problem is that the regime was never interested in bringing real social changes, leading to a national renaissance, but rather interested in making personal gains and maintaining its power. They were therefore willing to appease reactionary elements of society in order to keep them from opposing the regime.

July 13th, 2011, 5:27 pm

 

louai said:

Aboud Tara Amnesia SYR.Expat , Thank you for your reply I am happy to hear your opinion and support to finish this criminal act of horror called ‘honour crimes’
I have a good faith on Syrians that they think the same way as you, apparently we have morte things in common than what I used to think .

As far as I know we inherited this law from the French and apparently we are so happy about it that we kept it till now

SYR Expat ,
Indeed, no one dealt with this problem and all successive governments and regimes failed to deal with this problem not only the current ‘regime’

Amnesia,
agree with you a murderer is a murderer but I am talking about Article 548 where there is a term limitation (maximum one year in jail !! can you believe it??) for the killer if the killer committed his crime driven by ‘honour’ motive, the president in 2009 amended the old Article 548 and now it’s a minimum of 2 years, Amended Article 548 states that “He who catches his wife or one of his ascendants, descendants or sister committing adultery or illegitimate sexual acts with another and he killed or injured one or both of them benefits from a reduced penalty, that should not be less than 2 years in prison in case of a killing.”
Still not enough!! this article need to be changed to a minimum of life sentence !
Every time I speak about this issue in our society I hear that the government would love to abolish this but the conservatives and the tribes will resist and it will cause Fitna !!
Now we have a golden opportunity to abolish and amend all this sexist laws and introduce new laws that give dignity back to our women, we are talking about 50% of the Syrian people, they are Sunnis Alawite Christians Druze Kurds Turkmen you name it, the opposition (you) should speak loud about this issue and other issues (such as economy) so we can get something positive out of this uprising, plus that would gain the opposition a lot of support amongst 50% of Syrians,or the opposition fear the conservatives and the tribesas well? hope not.

July 13th, 2011, 5:30 pm

 

HS said:

146. louai said:
“””
@88. HS
‘Obviously, the Syrian industry will suffer and may not recover unless the Syrian satellite TV expand its market share in the advertising .’
exactly , even that I don’t like the Syrian Drama but it’s a good source of income and very effective weapon that no Jazeera can compete with , I hope your suggestion will find its way to the government .
“””

I am quite sure the government don’t read the comments of this blog.
In fact , I am quite sure that only a few people apart the usual commentators are reaching here.

July 13th, 2011, 5:37 pm

 

louai said:

Dear NK

Thank you for your honest comment,
The government also always blamed the traditional opposition (the conservatives and Isalmists) of resisting this change,
I am not against changing the regime neither do the president, that’s why I call all people who are genuinely want the best for Syria to engage in a dialogue with the government and stop blaming each other about our failure, the president and ‘the regime’ know the importance of a radical change, the opposition should engage in a healthy conflict with the government taking this historic chance to address those major issues, but putting the government in the corner will not help the opposition nor help Syria. Why we can have dialogue in here , and its never possible in Syria?

July 13th, 2011, 5:46 pm

 

HS said:

Ehsani2 said
“”
If you are a believer, buy those stocks and/or deposit SYP at your bank for 9%.
“”

Thanks for your economist’s answer to my investment’s future in Syria

July 13th, 2011, 5:47 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Louai, I fully understand your points, and I agree that the law needs to be changed. This opinion of mine is not due to a wish to encourage promiscuity. It is only because it is almost impossible to prove that this person or that person did this together, and killing should never be taken lightly.

I think it is not so much an issue of gender equality to most Syrians. It is more so an issue of practicality and fairness where enforcement of the law is concerned.

So again, murder is murder. If Syrians decide that they want to outlaw other things, then punishment should only be brought by the courts.

July 13th, 2011, 5:51 pm

 

Amnesia said:

Louai asked, “Why we can have dialogue in here , and its never possible in Syria?”

Mukhabarat.

July 13th, 2011, 5:54 pm

 

jad said:

Is the news of Malek Jandali having a concert in the white house true?
Is he mad? In the WHITE HOUSE, during these times!?
What’s wrong with some Syrians these days, they totally lost their national priorities? Hate Bashar, the regime, the Baat, any sect and anybody you want as much and as strong as you want but don’t ever sell your Syrian soul to the ‘devil’, that is unacceptable.

“منقول: لو عملت حملة تبرعات خلال امسيات موسيقية لاطفال الشهداء لكنا مجدناك..ولكن حفلة موسيقية على تراس البيت الابيض تحت عنوان الحرية لتستغل اعلاميا من واشنطن..كبيرة يامالك جندلي وخاصة مع الفوضى الخلاقة والمجازر في كثير من بلاد العالم مع نهب الخيرات وتقسيم البلدان …موسيقاك اصبحت بغيضة فعلا لاأسف عليك”

July 13th, 2011, 6:14 pm

 

Tara said:

Dear Aboud,

I very much understand where you’re coming from. I was assuming this same exact  position not too long ago that I will never forget or forgive, Bashar that is,  I am still not forgiving Bashar.    I despise Him as much as you do and then some.  

Our society however is a bit different than Tunis, Yaman, and Egypt.  A fact that we simply can not deny.  It is sectarianly diversified and it is not an open society.  There is engraved fear of others in our society.  Whether the fear is justified  or not is irrelevant at this time.  Assad legacy was to enhance the fear rather than to abolish it.    He used this tactic to stay in power.  You see the culture of fear at all levels.  You see it in Syria Comments at the truly educated elite level, let alone the Shabbiha level and the mostly Alawi security apparatus.  Fear is a very intense emotion and sometimes can become irrational.

I see a sudden acute change in power to be a risky proposition for several reasons.  First would be a civil sectarian war similar to Lebanon.  Fear as I said is an intense emotion and can easily lead to dehumanizing the others to justify aggression to protect one’ self.   It is no secret that  shabbiha have weapons that  can be used to ignite a civil war should the current regime suddenly collapse and should sinister groups of people start to mobilize the Alawi and the Sunni masses to kill each other out of revenge in case of the Sunnis and out of fear in case of Alawis

My second concern would be for history to repeat itself.   No charismatic figure has yet emerged to lead.  Not that I consider Jr. to be a charismatic visionary  leader by any stretch.   I have nothing but contempt toward how he handled the situation.  However, the lack of  emerging charismatic leader after 4 month may be a bit worrisome.  I am yet to be impressed by any of the  internal opposition, although I am not an avid follower of the internal opposition and therefore I could have missed some.  I would be concerned that someone might sneak in and repeat history.

My third concern would be for radical Islam to take over, extremely unlikely but a remote possibility.  I am secular Sunni as you know.  I do believe in god and holly Quraan and I do teach my children Islam as I understand it.  I however do not want to live in a theocracy and do not want Islamic teaching to be imposed on me.  With sudden collapse of government, I can not guarantee perhaps how things would turn.  There might be an alliance of power that could bring on a non secular government.

My last concern would be the resistance.  I believe it is important to stay genuine to what is incorporated in our DNA.  We must have balance of power in the ME to be able to forge a just peace with Israel.  You can not negotiate a just peace when you are weak.  You can only achieve a just peace when you are a strong and hence I am concerned that such acute collapse might change the power of balance a bit to the disadvantage of the Palestinian cause.

I would not agree to a dialogue unless Bashar declares the end of his term and the complete disintegration of the regime as it stands Now in one year then we can sit and talk a way out

I might be completely wrong but this is Tara’s 2 cents

July 13th, 2011, 6:20 pm

 

Aboud said:

Tara @166 ” However, the lack of emerging charismatic leader after 4 month may be a bit worrisome.”

Alas, it took Ghandi alot more than four months to become one of India’s national leaders. It took years of prison and abuse for Nelson Mandela to be regarded as the father of his people. I don’t think anyone ever attained such prominence in just four months.

July 13th, 2011, 6:39 pm

 

louai said:

Amnesia
‘it is almost impossible to prove that this person or that person did this together, and killing should never be taken lightly.’
In Sharia Law you need 4 witnesses to confirm the adultery and see all the details by their own eyes for the judge to order stoning but in traditional law, its more than enough for the brother or the husband to only ‘ suspect’ to kill his sister or wife (some times mother) because of this law
There are 200 Syrian women get killed each year because the law is very tolerant with the ‘honoured killer’

@164 , I agree with you that fear is still exist but do you agree with me that the uprising already achieved a major achievement of changing the mind set and the collective thinking of Syrians? People are talking openly now about every thing, there is huge change, the government want a way out to finish this, and proved willingness for dialogue,
i wonder if the revolutionists take a bold step (as they ask the president to do)and accept the dialogue what would happen? , Imagine this shadow government Revlon talked about was to monitor the performance of the existing government not to ‘replace’ it , lets face it many Syrians support the government and the president started the reform already ,we can not go back , if he dose he will loose ‘the silent majority’ and a lot of his loyalists
the opposition to gain more support should be more transparent than the government they are criticizing ,they should admit their own mistakes and accept the fact that they don’t have enough support to topple the regime so they should not work to topple the entire country ,as if they are saying ‘either everything or nothing’ .

July 13th, 2011, 6:45 pm

 

Tara said:

Aboud,

Can not disagree a bit. Assads suppressed the freedom of speech, and that left him with no one to talk too. I am very sure that there are a lot of potential charismatic leaders in our society that will ultimately unravel themselves.

Now I am sure of history. I know the people will eventually win. I have no doubt about it and I really mean that. The question is that we want this winning to be a meaningful one. We do not just want to win not for the sake of achieving victory. We want to win to advance our society and our cause and that is where I am coming from.

July 13th, 2011, 6:49 pm

 

NK said:

Dear Louai

We’re having a dialogue here because we’re interested in dialogue, and believe me I really wish the Syrian regime was truly interested in a true dialogue, but everything they’re doing is pointing otherwise. Beating protesters, the major assault on opposition carried out by the Syrian media, the facade meetings held by regime loyalists as “opposition meetings”, the Syrian regime wants the opposition to sit on the table and agree to whatever reforms the regime has in mind, of course this will be sold later as a MAJOR VICTORY for the Syria Al Assad who withstood the savage attack (foreign plot) and came out much stronger thanks to the wisdom of it’s president and people’s love for him. I don’t see why this is not obvious, it’s been done over and over and over.

Just take a look at this

http://www.the-syrian.com/archives/18745

ما حصل في مظاهرة المثقفين في الميدان

جمعت الكلام هاد من تواجدي هنيك + كذا شهادة على الفيسبوك.

كان المقرر إنو نجتمع أبكر ما يمكن أما جامع الحسن، لكن أنا اتأخرت للساعة ستة. لما وصلت عرفت إنو تم اعتقال الأسماء التالية حوالي الساعة 6 إلا عشرة من أمام جامع الحسن:
الصحفي إياد شربجي، الفنانة مي سكاف، الكاتبة ريما فليحان، الكاتبة يم مشهدي، الكاتبان أحمد ومحمد ملص، السينمائي نضال حسن، المصورة غيفارا نمر والناشطة دانا بقدونس.
قيل إنو مجمد آل رشي، فارس الحلو، يارا صبري، خالد تاجا إنهن اعتقلوا، لكن تبين فيما بعد إنو لأ.

طبعاً عند وصولي كان الأمن وقوى حفظ النظام منتشرين تحت بالساحة الصغيرة تحت المتحلق وعند جامع الحسن. بالإضافة لعدد 2 شبيحة نسوات وشوية شبيحة شباب حاملين صورة كبيرة عليها: “ساعة الحسم يا غالي يا أسد” وماشيين فيها، عليها صور نضال جنود وبقية من قتلوا من جانب النظام، بالأضافة لأسماء القتلى من الأمن والجيش.

التجمع كان عند الغواص، كان في حوالي 200 شب وصبية، وقفنا شوي وبعدين بلشنا نمشي باتجاه المجتهد، وبدأنا نغني النشيد السوري، غنيناه مرتين، وبعدين هتفنا: “الله سورية حرية وبس”، “واحد واحد واحد، الشعب السوري واحد”، “علّي الصوت علّي الصوت علّي علّي الصوت، يا منعيش بكرامة، يا أما منموت”.. وغيرها..

خلال مسيرنا ما كان الأمن وحفظ النظام عم يلحقنا، بس اقتحم المظاهرة واحد بلش يقول: “الله سوريا بشار وبس” وحاول يضرب بعض الشباب، بس الشباب بعدوه. رجع هجم مرة تانية، فأخدوه شي عشر شباب عالزاوية ضربوه شوي فحاولنا نهتف: “سلميّة سلميّة” بلكي بيتركوه، بعدين مشي الحال، وفكوا الناس بيناتهن.

وقت وصلنا قبل المجتهد بشوي، كنا بدنا نلف عاليمين، بس في ناس قالت تعوا نكمل لقدام، بهاللحظة هجم حفظ النظام واعتقل بعض الشباب وضرب. وبعد هيك اتفرقتنا.

بحسب مو مكتوب عالفيسبوك، كان في مظاهرة تانية بمنطقة الجزماتية، والمظاهرة استمرت نص ساعة تقريباً شارك فيها فارس الحلو ومحمد آل رشي، وما اعتقلوا.

نُشر في مدوّنة شحّار.

Again I truly wished Bashar would take serious steps to end this regime and do what best serves the interests of Syrians, but after 4 months of nothing but committees to study the suggestion of other committees, this falls under wishful thinking. My time is better spent looking for alternatives.

July 13th, 2011, 7:08 pm

 

Darryl said:

153. NK

Syrians have been leaving Syria long before the Assads came to power. Islamic migration from Syria is only recent, because you have finally realised why the previous generations, which were mostly Christians and minorities left. And it had nothing to do with the Assads or Baath, there was something else there.

That something is there, but no one wants to tackle this hot potato. It is the lack of freedom and opportunity due to religious intolerance, slavery of the mind by constantly referring to the past, belief in absolute authority, ingrained belief not to ask a question or challenge a particular thought and finally slavery of the Syrian Soul and body to perpetuate myths. All rulers, regimes and clergy used the above to get where they are, precisely because these tools were there and highly effective.

Be objective when you start talking about this issue in a public forum like this, otherwise this supposed revolution will exactly achieve nothing in the future.

July 13th, 2011, 7:50 pm

 

Tara said:

Daryl,

“slavery of the mind..ingrained belief not to ask question or challenge a particular thoyght… And slavery of the soul… ”

Outstanding!

July 13th, 2011, 8:05 pm

 

louai said:

You said ‘Syrian regime wants the opposition to sit on the table and agree to whatever reforms the regime has in mind, of course this will be sold later as a MAJOR VICTORY for the Syria Al Assad who withstood the savage attack (foreign plot) and came out much stronger thanks to the wisdom of it’s president and people’s love for him.’ then you asked ‘why its not obvious
Don’t let him do that ! go to the meeting say what you want ! unless what you want cant be said on TV ,you have a president who is welling and ready for change (thanks for the pressure put from the peaceful demonstrators and the blood of all martyrs)
What make you trust the regime when he says he is sincere about having dialogue?
You said ‘everything they’re doing is pointing otherwise’
1-Beating protesters
well the protestors are throwing rocks (I am not saying having firing guns and not mentioning hundreds of dead security forces )

2-the major assault on opposition carried out by the Syrian media
it is a manageable thing if only the opposition address that as one of the official demands to start dialogue and remember the opposition have the international and Golf media on its side

3-“opposition meetings”,
all the opposition should have attended ,what did happened to Tayb Tanziny? No one arrested him no one question him, providing the regime arrested the activists that will inflame the anger and the protests, it’s a win win scenario to Syria and the opposition if they start dialogue

sooner or later we have to talk and we have to find a political solution its up to the opposition how soon or late this day will come in the mean time our family back home are paying the price

July 13th, 2011, 11:14 pm

 

louai said:

HS

‘I am quite sure the government don’t read the comments of this blog.
In fact , I am quite sure that only a few people apart the usual commentators are reaching here.’

they do , you and me are Mukhabarat , remember?

July 14th, 2011, 4:09 am

 

Opy said:

Excellent article Mouhanad and very touichng in many ways. Glory be to the Syrian revolution and it’s great forgotten heroes and martyrs. But beware of those who are ready to hijack your revolution just like they did with ours in Egypt. You must have a plan now to what’s next after Assad reign is over and don’t leave anything for circumstances. God bless.

August 19th, 2012, 9:22 am

 

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